Is A Global Economic Growth Slowdown Imminent?

Gravitas: Economic slowdown: The Global picture

Is Economy The Biggest Challenge In Front Of Modi Government?

WION Edit: Jobs: The Achilles heel for Modi government?

Congress party on Saturday urged the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a multi-phased roadmap to kick-start the economy and evolve an employment generating strategy.

"Slump in economic growth and runaway unemployment are two important challenges before the country. I hope the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister will address them by laying a short-medium-long term roadmap of kick-starting the growth engine as also employment generating strategy," said Congress leader Randeep Surjewala.

Government data showed on Friday that the country recorded a GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19, the lowest in five years. In FY 2017-18, the GDP growth rate was 7.2 per cent.

The slowdown was largely attributed to lacklustre growth in the agriculture and mining sectors.

Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday also showed that 5.8 per cent of men and 3.8 per cent of women are unemployed in rural India.

In urban areas, the numbers are much higher at 7.1 per cent of men and 10.8 per cent women being unemployed.

Congress leader PL Punia also urged the government to take concrete steps to reverse the economic slowdown which, he said, is causing a lot of hardship to people.

The industrial output is down, the manufacturing sector is not growing, resulting in massive unemployment in urban and rural regions across the country, he said.

The news of unemployment in 2017-18 at 6.1 per cent came as when the Cabinet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi began its second term on Friday.

Congress party on Saturday urged the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a multi-phased roadmap to kick-start the economy and evolve an employment generating strategy.

Congress party on Saturday urged the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a multi-phased roadmap to kick-start the economy and evolve an employment generating strategy. "Slump in economic growth and runaway unemployment are two important challenges before the country. I hope the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister will address them by laying a short-medium-long term roadmap of kick-starting the growth engine as also employment generating strategy," said Congress leader Randeep Surjewala. Government data showed on Friday that the country recorded a GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19, the lowest in five years. In FY 2017-18, the GDP growth rate was 7.2 per cent. The slowdown was largely attributed to lacklustre growth in the agriculture and mining sectors. Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday also showed that 5.8 per cent of men and 3.8 per cent of women are unemployed in rural India. In urban areas, the numbers are much higher at 7.1 per cent of men and 10.8 per cent women being unemployed. Congress leader PL Punia also urged the government to take concrete steps to reverse the economic slowdown which, he said, is causing a lot of hardship to people. The industrial output is down, the manufacturing sector is not growing, resulting in massive unemployment in urban and rural regions across the country, he said. The news of unemployment in 2017-18 at 6.1 per cent came as when the Cabinet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi began its second term on Friday.

Congress urges new government to reverse economic slowdown

Unmistakable signs of an economic slowdown in the Gulf have started causing concern in our own country. After decades of carefree spending and burgeoning development cutbacks and laydowns have transmitted tremor waves signalling unprecedented threats. It may be premature to reach the conclusion that the boom has turned to bust but apprehensions about mutually beneficial shared future are not unjustified.

A quick look at the map reminds us how close UAE is. It is bordered by Saudi Arab to the West, Iran, Qatar and opens out to the Persian. It is buffeted by the power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arab and can't remain unaffected by the long-raging strife in the middle east-Iraq and Syria. What has eroded the wealth and self-confidence of the Sheikhs is a steady fall in oil and gas prices. When even Saudi Arabia is feeling the painful pinch the UAE can’t remain in denial. The era of tax-free incomes is over. Cuts in government spending have resulted in a sharp fall in real estate prices and rentals. Expensive and expansive plans for ambitious pursuit of grandeur are no longer on the anvil.

It is estimated that over 90 per cent of the population of UAE is immigrants most of them South Asians. Remittances from those working ‘overseas’ in the Gulf have in recent years contributed significantly to our foreign exchange reserves and also have had a very significant effect on living standards in villages in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu that have been major beneficiaries of the economic boom

Though Indians have traded with Arabs for millennia- much before the advent of Islam- very few Indians recognise the seven sultanates that comprise the United Arab Emirates as neighbours. What is quite ironical as ‘Duty-Free’ Dubai and Affluent Laid Back Abu Dhabi are among the most popular destinations for well healed Indian tourists and immigrants in search of lucrative jobs.&nbsp;

Doctors, engineers, managers, journalists and accountants along with skilled and unskilled workers have found a semi-permanent home away from home in the Gulf. The looming economic crisis has resulted in their dreams suddenly turning into a nightmare.&nbsp;

Till the mid-1960s these sultanates were British Protectorate and known as the Trucial States. Since then their transformation has been dramatic. From backward colonial dependencies in a desert wasteland, the Federation of Gulf states has emerged as a bustling hub of financial activity and a region of geopolitical significance. Indians, Nepali, Bangladeshi not to forget Pakistani have flocked to the Eldorado in the Gulf.

One Day Cricket, the popularity of Bollywood films have forged a strong bilateral relationship. But for those living in the Hindi Heartland, the UAE in recent past has registered as a blip on the mental radar where the dreaded gangster Dawood Ibrahim was holed up beyond the reach of Indian law enforcement agencies. It is difficult to understand the lack of awareness and interest in what for all practical purposes is a proximate neighbourhood of economic and strategic significance.&nbsp;

Perceptions need to change and fast. 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Unmistakable signs of an economic slowdown in the Gulf have started causing concern in our own country. After decades of carefree spending and burgeoning development cutbacks and laydowns have transmitted tremor waves signalling unprecedented threats.

Unmistakable signs of an economic slowdown in the Gulf have started causing concern in our own country. After decades of carefree spending and burgeoning development cutbacks and laydowns have transmitted tremor waves signalling unprecedented threats. It may be premature to reach the conclusion that the boom has turned to bust but apprehensions about mutually beneficial shared future are not unjustified. A quick look at the map reminds us how close UAE is. It is bordered by Saudi Arab to the West, Iran, Qatar and opens out to the Persian. It is buffeted by the power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arab and can't remain unaffected by the long-raging strife in the middle east-Iraq and Syria. What has eroded the wealth and self-confidence of the Sheikhs is a steady fall in oil and gas prices. When even Saudi Arabia is feeling the painful pinch the UAE can’t remain in denial. The era of tax-free incomes is over. Cuts in government spending have resulted in a sharp fall in real estate prices and rentals. Expensive and expansive plans for ambitious pursuit of grandeur are no longer on the anvil. It is estimated that over 90 per cent of the population of UAE is immigrants most of them South Asians. Remittances from those working ‘overseas’ in the Gulf have in recent years contributed significantly to our foreign exchange reserves and also have had a very significant effect on living standards in villages in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu that have been major beneficiaries of the economic boom Though Indians have traded with Arabs for millennia- much before the advent of Islam- very few Indians recognise the seven sultanates that comprise the United Arab Emirates as neighbours. What is quite ironical as ‘Duty-Free’ Dubai and Affluent Laid Back Abu Dhabi are among the most popular destinations for well healed Indian tourists and immigrants in search of lucrative jobs. Doctors, engineers, managers, journalists and accountants along with skilled and unskilled workers have found a semi-permanent home away from home in the Gulf. The looming economic crisis has resulted in their dreams suddenly turning into a nightmare. Till the mid-1960s these sultanates were British Protectorate and known as the Trucial States. Since then their transformation has been dramatic. From backward colonial dependencies in a desert wasteland, the Federation of Gulf states has emerged as a bustling hub of financial activity and a region of geopolitical significance. Indians, Nepali, Bangladeshi not to forget Pakistani have flocked to the Eldorado in the Gulf. One Day Cricket, the popularity of Bollywood films have forged a strong bilateral relationship. But for those living in the Hindi Heartland, the UAE in recent past has registered as a blip on the mental radar where the dreaded gangster Dawood Ibrahim was holed up beyond the reach of Indian law enforcement agencies. It is difficult to understand the lack of awareness and interest in what for all practical purposes is a proximate neighbourhood of economic and strategic significance. Perceptions need to change and fast. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assessing the impact of economic slowdown in Gulf on India

Oil markets dropped by around 1 per cent in 2019's first trading on Wednesday, pulled down by surging US&nbsp;output and concerns about an economic slowdown in 2019 as factory activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, contracted.

International Brent crude futures were at $53.19 per barrel at 0544 GMT, down 61 cents, or 1.1 per cent, from their final close of 2018.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $44.95 per barrel, down 47 cents, or 1 per cent.

In physical oil markets, Dubai crude averaged $57.318 a barrel for December, the lowest since October 2017, two traders who participate in the market said on Wednesday.

Similarly, Malaysia's Petronas set the official selling price of a basket of December-loading Malaysian crude grades at $62.79 a barrel, the lowest since October 2017, the state oil firm said on Wednesday.

Traders said futures prices fell on expectations of oversupply amid surging US&nbsp;production and concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Factory activity weakened in December across Asia, including in China, as the Sino-US&nbsp;trade war and a slowdown in Chinese demand hit production in most economies, pointing to a rocky start for the world's top economic growth region in 2019.

Independent market analyst Greg McKenna said in a note on Wednesday that it was "difficult for traders and investors to ignore what looks like a genuine global economic slowdown."

That is also impacting sentiment in oil markets. Oil prices ended 2018 lower for the first time since 2015, after a desultory fourth quarter that saw buyers flee the market over growing worries about too much supply and mixed signals related to renewed US&nbsp;sanctions on Iran.

"Oil prices ... registered their first yearly decline in three years on fears of a slowing global economy and concerns of an ongoing supply glut," said Adeel Minhas, a consultant at Australia's Rivkin Securities.

For the year, WTI futures slumped nearly 25 per cent, while Brent tumbled nearly 20 per cent.

The outlook for 2019 is riddled with uncertainty, analysts said, including the US-China trade concerns and Brexit, as well as political instability and conflict in the Middle East.

A Reuters poll showed oil prices are expected to trade below $70 per barrel in 2019 as surplus production, much of it from the United States, and slowing economic growth undermine efforts led by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut supply and prop up prices.

On the production side, all eyes will be on the ongoing surge in US&nbsp;output and on OPEC's and Russia's supply discipline.

"Don't underestimate shale producers and the wider US&nbsp;oil industry in general. Too often this year the market pushed stories ... bottlenecks (pipelines, frack crews, truck drivers, etc.), yet US&nbsp;oil production will have grown by a massive 2+ million barrels per day between 1.1.2018 and 1.1.2019," consultancy JBC Energy said in an analysis of 2018.

US&nbsp;crude output rose to an all-time high of 11.537 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday. That makes the US&nbsp;the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Weekly data, which is more open to revisions, was reported last week at 11.7 million bpd in late December by the EIA. 
&nbsp;

Oil markets dropped by around 1 per cent in 2019's first trading on Wednesday, pulled down by surging US output and concerns about an economic slowdown in 2019 as factory activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, contracted.

Oil markets dropped by around 1 per cent in 2019's first trading on Wednesday, pulled down by surging US output and concerns about an economic slowdown in 2019 as factory activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, contracted. International Brent crude futures were at $53.19 per barrel at 0544 GMT, down 61 cents, or 1.1 per cent, from their final close of 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $44.95 per barrel, down 47 cents, or 1 per cent. In physical oil markets, Dubai crude averaged $57.318 a barrel for December, the lowest since October 2017, two traders who participate in the market said on Wednesday. Similarly, Malaysia's Petronas set the official selling price of a basket of December-loading Malaysian crude grades at $62.79 a barrel, the lowest since October 2017, the state oil firm said on Wednesday. Traders said futures prices fell on expectations of oversupply amid surging US production and concerns about a global economic slowdown. Factory activity weakened in December across Asia, including in China, as the Sino-US trade war and a slowdown in Chinese demand hit production in most economies, pointing to a rocky start for the world's top economic growth region in 2019. Independent market analyst Greg McKenna said in a note on Wednesday that it was "difficult for traders and investors to ignore what looks like a genuine global economic slowdown." That is also impacting sentiment in oil markets. Oil prices ended 2018 lower for the first time since 2015, after a desultory fourth quarter that saw buyers flee the market over growing worries about too much supply and mixed signals related to renewed US sanctions on Iran. "Oil prices ... registered their first yearly decline in three years on fears of a slowing global economy and concerns of an ongoing supply glut," said Adeel Minhas, a consultant at Australia's Rivkin Securities. For the year, WTI futures slumped nearly 25 per cent, while Brent tumbled nearly 20 per cent. The outlook for 2019 is riddled with uncertainty, analysts said, including the US-China trade concerns and Brexit, as well as political instability and conflict in the Middle East. A Reuters poll showed oil prices are expected to trade below $70 per barrel in 2019 as surplus production, much of it from the United States, and slowing economic growth undermine efforts led by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut supply and prop up prices. On the production side, all eyes will be on the ongoing surge in US output and on OPEC's and Russia's supply discipline. "Don't underestimate shale producers and the wider US oil industry in general. Too often this year the market pushed stories ... bottlenecks (pipelines, frack crews, truck drivers, etc.), yet US oil production will have grown by a massive 2+ million barrels per day between 1.1.2018 and 1.1.2019," consultancy JBC Energy said in an analysis of 2018. US crude output rose to an all-time high of 11.537 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday. That makes the US the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Weekly data, which is more open to revisions, was reported last week at 11.7 million bpd in late December by the EIA.

Oil kicks off 2019 with losses on signs of economic slowdown, surging supply

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