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Is developing Asian countries&nbsp;growth engine is sputtering?&nbsp;On Wednesday, citing escalating US tariffs, China’s fragile recovery, and rising global uncertainty, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth forecast for the region for both 2025 and 2026.&nbsp;In its latest Asian Development Outlook which got released on Wednesday, the ADB cut its 2025 growth forecast for the region from 4.9 per cent to 4.7 per cent, and trimmed its 2026 projection from 4.7 per cent to 4.6 per cent. The bank in its report warned that domestic demand across much of Asia is expected to weaken as countries struggle with tighter financial conditions, supply chain disruptions, and the economic fallout of geopolitical tensions.&nbsp;“Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park, adding, “But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty,” according to Reuters. Among the most immediate threats are tariff increases announced by US President Donald Trump. A new 15 per cent tariff on Japanese imports, reduced from a threatened 25 per cent, and a 19 per cent tariff on Philippine goods are just the latest in a broader push that has reshaped global trade flows. Since April, nearly all US trading partners have faced a baseline 10 per cent tariff, with many bracing for more from August 1. This sudden wave of protectionism has forced the ADB to revise down its regional projections.<h2>Southeast Asia worst hit</h2>Long seen as a regional growth engine, Southeast Asia is now expected to grow by only 4.2 per cent in 2025 which is down sharply from the 4.7 per cent projected in April. For 2026, the outlook has also weakened to 4.3 per cent, signalling that this isn’t a short-term shock but part of a broader structural slowdown.&nbsp;Thailand’s 2025 growth forecast has been slashed from 2.8 per cent to just 1.8 per cent, and is expected to dip further to 1.6 per cent in 2026. Similarliy, Malaysia's growth fell from 4.9 per cent to 4.3 per cent in 2025, before sliding to 4.2 per cent the following year. Singapore is forecast to slow to 1.6 per cent in 2025, and further to 1.5 per cent in 2026.&nbsp;The Philippines which is now facing a new 19 per cent US tariff, is forecast to grow 5.6 per cent in 2025. Which is slightly down from earlier projections, before rising modestly to 5.8 per cent in 2026. Vietnam stands out as one of the few resilient players, with 2025 growth revised upward to 6.5 per cent, though this is still lower than its pre-COVID trajectory.<h2>China slows, India holds steady</h2>Like Southeast Asia,&nbsp; East Asia's economic outlook has also darkened. The ADB now sees growth in the subregion easing to 4.3 per cent in 2025, slightly lower than April’s 4.4 per cent. The figure for 2026 holds at 4.0 per cent. China’s GDP forecast remains at 4.7 per cent for 2025, unchanged from April, but reflects a deep cooling from the 5.4 per cent growth seen in 2023. The world’s second-largest economy is grappling with structural challenges, from a weak property market to sluggish consumer spending. Its 2026 growth is expected to remain flat at 4.3 per cent.&nbsp;In contrast, South Asia, led by India, continues to outperform. While the region’s overall growth is expected to slow slightly to 5.9 per cent in 2025, India alone is projected to expand by 6.5 per cent, up from April’s 6.7 per cent but still one of the fastest rates globally. The 2026 estimate for India stands at 6.7 per cent, driven by robust consumption and services.<h2>Asian economic growth snapshot</h2>The latest ADB projections offer a mixed picture for developing Asia. While some economies like India and Vietnam continue to perform relatively well, much of the region faces slowing momentum, particularly Southeast Asia and China. Here’s a detailed look at the updated forecast.

<figure class="table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Region / Country</td><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025 (Apr)</td><td>2025 (Jul)</td><td>2026</td></tr><tr><td>Developing Asia</td><td>5.5</td><td>5.1</td><td>4.9</td><td>4.7</td><td>4.6</td></tr><tr><td>Caucasus &amp; Central Asia</td><td>5.4</td><td>5.7</td><td>5.4</td><td>5.5</td><td>5.1</td></tr><tr><td>East Asia</td><td>4.8</td><td>4.7</td><td>4.4</td><td>4.3</td><td>4.0</td></tr><tr><td>China</td><td>5.4</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.7</td><td>4.7</td><td>4.3</td></tr><tr><td>South Asia</td><td>7.8</td><td>5.9</td><td>6.0</td><td>5.9</td><td>6.2</td></tr><tr><td>India</td><td>9.2</td><td>6.5</td><td>6.7</td><td>6.5</td><td>6.7</td></tr><tr><td>Southeast Asia</td><td>4.1</td><td>4.8</td><td>4.7</td><td>4.2</td><td>4.3</td></tr><tr><td>Indonesia</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.1</td></tr><tr><td>Malaysia</td><td>3.6</td><td>4.9</td><td>4.9</td><td>4.3</td><td>4.2</td></tr><tr><td>Myanmar</td><td>0.8</td><td>-0.7</td><td>1.1</td><td>—</td><td>1.6</td></tr><tr><td>Philippines</td><td>6.0</td><td>6.2</td><td>5.6</td><td>5.6</td><td>5.8</td></tr><tr><td>Singapore</td><td>1.8</td><td>4.4</td><td>2.6</td><td>1.6</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr><td>Thailand</td><td>2.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.6</td></tr><tr><td>Vietnam</td><td>7.1</td><td>6.6</td><td>6.3</td><td>6.5</td><td>6.0</td></tr><tr><td>Pacific region</td><td>4.7</td><td>4.1</td><td>3.9</td><td>3.9</td><td>3.5</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>Source: Asian Development Bank (ADB), July 2025 Outlook

The biggest downward revisions are concentrated in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand, where 2025 growth has been sharply downgraded to just 1.8 per cent from an earlier 2.8 per cent. The Philippines is expected to grow at 5.6 per cent, unchanged from April but still below earlier trends due to new US tariffs. Malaysia’s outlook has weakened too, now expected to grow 4.3 per cent in 2025, down from 4.9 per cent. In East Asia, China’s 2025 projection remains flat at 4.7 per cent, but there’s little hope of a rebound, with 2026 growth also stuck at 4.3 per cent. The ADB signals ongoing structural challenges in China’s real estate sector and weak domestic demand as major concerns. On the brighter side, India continues to outperform. Even with a modest downward revision, its 2025 growth is forecast at 6.5 per cent, with 2026 expected to rise again to 6.7 per cent, driven by stable consumption and investment-led stimulus. Vietnam has also shown resilience, with the ADB revising its 2025 forecast upward to 6.5 per cent, despite global trade disruptions. The Pacific region is expected to remain subdued, growing 3.9 per cent in 2025 and slowing further to 3.5 per cent in 2026, due to its high dependence on tourism and foreign aid flows, both of which remain volatile.<h2>Inflation pressures ease</h2>While growth is slowing, inflation appears to be moderating. The ADB now expects Developing Asia’s inflation rate to fall to 2.0 per cent in 2025, slightly lower than the 2.3 per cent it projected in April. In South Asia, inflation is expected to ease to 4.4 per cent, with India’s inflation stabilising at 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026.&nbsp;Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s inflation is forecast to drop to 1.5 per cent in 2025, while Thailand is expected to see inflation at just 0.5 per cent. Malaysia is projected to hold steady at 2.4 per cent, and Vietnam at 3.9 per cent. The outlier remains Myanmar, where inflation could exceed 20 per cent, largely driven by political instability, currency devaluation, and food insecurity.<h2>Reform or retreat?</h2>The ADB has urged countries across the region to resist inward-looking policies and instead strengthen their economic fundamentals. That includes pursuing open trade, deepening regional cooperation, and investing in sustainable growth to support jobs and long-term productivity. “Economies in the region should continue strengthening their fundamentals and promoting open trade and regional integration,” Park said.&nbsp;For now, the message is clear: Asia is entering a tougher, slower era of growth. Navigating the fallout from Trump-era tariffs, a weaker China, and shifting global demand will require more than policy tweaks. It may demand a full recalibration of Asia’s growth model. (With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

The 2025 growth projection is reduced from 4.9% to 4.7%, and for 2026 from 4.7% to 4.6%. Southeast Asia is particularly affected, with forecasts dropping to 4.2% for 2025 and 4.3% for 2026. Thailand forecast has been cut dramatically, while Malaysia and Singapore also see declines. 

Is developing Asian countries growth engine is sputtering? On Wednesday, citing escalating US tariffs, China’s fragile recovery, and rising global uncertainty, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth forecast for the region for both 2025 and 2026. In its latest Asian Development Outlook which got released on Wednesday, the ADB cut its 2025 growth forecast for the region from 4.9 per cent to 4.7 per cent, and trimmed its 2026 projection from 4.7 per cent to 4.6 per cent. The bank in its report warned that domestic demand across much of Asia is expected to weaken as countries struggle with tighter financial conditions, supply chain disruptions, and the economic fallout of geopolitical tensions. “Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park, adding, “But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty,” according to Reuters. Among the most immediate threats are tariff increases announced by US President Donald Trump. A new 15 per cent tariff on Japanese imports, reduced from a threatened 25 per cent, and a 19 per cent tariff on Philippine goods are just the latest in a broader push that has reshaped global trade flows. Since April, nearly all US trading partners have faced a baseline 10 per cent tariff, with many bracing for more from August 1. This sudden wave of protectionism has forced the ADB to revise down its regional projections. Southeast Asia worst hit Long seen as a regional growth engine, Southeast Asia is now expected to grow by only 4.2 per cent in 2025 which is down sharply from the 4.7 per cent projected in April. For 2026, the outlook has also weakened to 4.3 per cent, signalling that this isn’t a short-term shock but part of a broader structural slowdown. Thailand’s 2025 growth forecast has been slashed from 2.8 per cent to just 1.8 per cent, and is expected to dip further to 1.6 per cent in 2026. Similarliy, Malaysia's growth fell from 4.9 per cent to 4.3 per cent in 2025, before sliding to 4.2 per cent the following year. Singapore is forecast to slow to 1.6 per cent in 2025, and further to 1.5 per cent in 2026. The Philippines which is now facing a new 19 per cent US tariff, is forecast to grow 5.6 per cent in 2025. Which is slightly down from earlier projections, before rising modestly to 5.8 per cent in 2026. Vietnam stands out as one of the few resilient players, with 2025 growth revised upward to 6.5 per cent, though this is still lower than its pre-COVID trajectory. China slows, India holds steady Like Southeast Asia, East Asia's economic outlook has also darkened. The ADB now sees growth in the subregion easing to 4.3 per cent in 2025, slightly lower than April’s 4.4 per cent. The figure for 2026 holds at 4.0 per cent. China’s GDP forecast remains at 4.7 per cent for 2025, unchanged from April, but reflects a deep cooling from the 5.4 per cent growth seen in 2023. The world’s second-largest economy is grappling with structural challenges, from a weak property market to sluggish consumer spending. Its 2026 growth is expected to remain flat at 4.3 per cent. In contrast, South Asia, led by India, continues to outperform. While the region’s overall growth is expected to slow slightly to 5.9 per cent in 2025, India alone is projected to expand by 6.5 per cent, up from April’s 6.7 per cent but still one of the fastest rates globally. The 2026 estimate for India stands at 6.7 per cent, driven by robust consumption and services. Asian economic growth snapshot The latest ADB projections offer a mixed picture for developing Asia. While some economies like India and Vietnam continue to perform relatively well, much of the region faces slowing momentum, particularly Southeast Asia and China. Here’s a detailed look at the updated forecast.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down its growth forecasts for developing Asia due to escalating US tariffs, a fragile Chinese recovery, and rising global uncertainty.

Trump tariffs bite into Asia's growth as ADB flags economic chill

Asia’s manufacturing sector is under pressure as US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff offensive sends shockwaves through global trade.&nbsp;From Vietnam to South Korea, Taiwan to Japan, factory activity contracted sharply in May 2025, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings slipping below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, according to S&amp;P Global data cited by Reuters.&nbsp;The downturn highlights growing uncertainty as Trump’s protectionist policies, aimed at rebalancing American trade—begin to disrupt supply chains and dent export-driven economies across the region.<h2>Vietnam’s exports slump amid tariff shock</h2>Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is bearing the brunt of Washington’s aggressive stance. New export orders declined for the seventh straight month in May, pushing factory activity deeper into contraction.&nbsp;Input costs fell for the first time in nearly two years, signalling weak demand and easing global commodity prices, according to S&amp;P Global, cited by Bloomberg.&nbsp;The pain stems largely from a 46 per cent reciprocal tariff the US imposed on Vietnamese goods in April. The US is a key destination for Vietnamese exports, and the tariff shock has shaken business confidence.&nbsp;Still, there is some optimism. A few firms cited “tariff stability” and improved production outlooks amid early-stage trade deals with the US and UK, S&amp;P Global noted.<h2>South Korea’s output plunges, steel sector under pressure</h2>South Korea’s PMI fell to 47.7 in May, the fourth straight month of contraction. New orders dropped at the sharpest rate in five years, and factory output posted its worst performance in nearly three years, Reuters reported.&nbsp;The most severe blow is being felt in the steel and aluminium sectors. Trump has doubled tariffs to 50 per cent on Korean metals, triggering alarm among exporters. South Korea’s Trade Ministry said it is working to “minimise the damage,” while urging calm, according to Reuters.&nbsp;Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned of a domino effect, noting that South Korea’s deep supply chain ties with China could amplify the tariff impact. South Korea’s exports to the US fell 8.1 per cent in May, a sharp reversal after a brief spike during Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, Bloomberg reported.<h2>Taiwan and Indonesia's demand weakens</h2>Taiwan’s manufacturing sector contracted for the second straight month. Export sales fell, and companies cited client hesitation and uncertain demand conditions driven by US tariff uncertainty.Businesses have begun cutting back on purchases and hiring, according to S&amp;P Global, reported by Bloomberg.&nbsp;In Indonesia, the picture is similarly bleak. New orders fell at their steepest pace since August 2021, indicating broader weakness in consumer demand across the ASEAN region, according to Reuters.<h2>Japan's prolonged contraction continues</h2>Japan’s PMI came in at 49.4 in May, marking the 11th consecutive month of contraction, according to Reuters.&nbsp;Though the downturn is less severe than in neighbouring economies, it points to long-term structural weakness in Japanese manufacturing, driven by sluggish exports and high input costs.<h2>Philippines' growth momentum slows</h2>The Philippines once a regional outlier is now also showing signs of slowing. Factory activity continued to expand in May, but at a much slower pace, as regional headwinds spread, Bloomberg reported.&nbsp;Businesses are reportedly becoming more cautious as demand from major export markets softens.<h2>US-China's fresh trade flare-up threatens fragile truce</h2>In early 2025, President Trump imposed a sweeping 145 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, citing trade imbalances and national security concerns. Beijing hit back with retaliatory duties of up to 125 per cent.&nbsp;While both sides briefly agreed to scale back some tariffs during talks in Geneva last month, relations have soured again.&nbsp;The US recently imposed new export restrictions on chip design software and AI technologies and revoked visas for Chinese students. It also banned exports of jet engine parts to China.&nbsp;According to Bloomberg, the US Trade Representative accused China of failing to uphold the Geneva agreement by not accelerating exports of critical minerals.&nbsp;Beijing, in turn, called the moves a “serious violation” of the truce. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take “resolute and forceful measures” if Washington continued to escalate, rejecting the US claims as “unjustified.”

Factory activity in May 2025 contracted sharply across Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, with Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings slipping below the 50-mark. 

Asia’s manufacturing sector is under pressure as US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff offensive sends shockwaves through global trade. From Vietnam to South Korea, Taiwan to Japan, factory activity contracted sharply in May 2025, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings slipping below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, according to S&P Global data cited by Reuters. The downturn highlights growing uncertainty as Trump’s protectionist policies, aimed at rebalancing American trade—begin to disrupt supply chains and dent export-driven economies across the region. Vietnam’s exports slump amid tariff shock Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is bearing the brunt of Washington’s aggressive stance. New export orders declined for the seventh straight month in May, pushing factory activity deeper into contraction. Input costs fell for the first time in nearly two years, signalling weak demand and easing global commodity prices, according to S&P Global, cited by Bloomberg. The pain stems largely from a 46 per cent reciprocal tariff the US imposed on Vietnamese goods in April. The US is a key destination for Vietnamese exports, and the tariff shock has shaken business confidence. Still, there is some optimism. A few firms cited “tariff stability” and improved production outlooks amid early-stage trade deals with the US and UK, S&P Global noted. South Korea’s output plunges, steel sector under pressure South Korea’s PMI fell to 47.7 in May, the fourth straight month of contraction. New orders dropped at the sharpest rate in five years, and factory output posted its worst performance in nearly three years, Reuters reported. The most severe blow is being felt in the steel and aluminium sectors. Trump has doubled tariffs to 50 per cent on Korean metals, triggering alarm among exporters. South Korea’s Trade Ministry said it is working to “minimise the damage,” while urging calm, according to Reuters. Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned of a domino effect, noting that South Korea’s deep supply chain ties with China could amplify the tariff impact. South Korea’s exports to the US fell 8.1 per cent in May, a sharp reversal after a brief spike during Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, Bloomberg reported. Taiwan and Indonesia's demand weakens Taiwan’s manufacturing sector contracted for the second straight month. Export sales fell, and companies cited client hesitation and uncertain demand conditions driven by US tariff uncertainty. Businesses have begun cutting back on purchases and hiring, according to S&P Global, reported by Bloomberg. In Indonesia, the picture is similarly bleak. New orders fell at their steepest pace since August 2021, indicating broader weakness in consumer demand across the ASEAN region, according to Reuters. Japan's prolonged contraction continues Japan’s PMI came in at 49.4 in May, marking the 11th consecutive month of contraction, according to Reuters. Though the downturn is less severe than in neighbouring economies, it points to long-term structural weakness in Japanese manufacturing, driven by sluggish exports and high input costs. Philippines' growth momentum slows The Philippines once a regional outlier is now also showing signs of slowing. Factory activity continued to expand in May, but at a much slower pace, as regional headwinds spread, Bloomberg reported. Businesses are reportedly becoming more cautious as demand from major export markets softens. US-China's fresh trade flare-up threatens fragile truce In early 2025, President Trump imposed a sweeping 145 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, citing trade imbalances and national security concerns. Beijing hit back with retaliatory duties of up to 125 per cent. While both sides briefly agreed to scale back some tariffs during talks in Geneva last month, relations have soured again. The US recently imposed new export restrictions on chip design software and AI technologies and revoked visas for Chinese students. It also banned exports of jet engine parts to China. According to Bloomberg, the US Trade Representative accused China of failing to uphold the Geneva agreement by not accelerating exports of critical minerals. Beijing, in turn, called the moves a “serious violation” of the truce. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take “resolute and forceful measures” if Washington continued to escalate, rejecting the US claims as “unjustified.”

US President Donald Trump's tariff tension has disrupted global trade and put pressure on Asia's manufacturing sector.&nbsp;

Trump’s tariffs hit Asia’s factories, trigger region-wide slowdown: Details here

Factory activity in Asia’s two largest economies—China and Japan—is showing fresh signs of strain, as the impact of escalating trade tensions with the united states begins to drag on growth across the region. In China, factory output shrank at its fastest pace since December 2023, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dropping in April.

Trade war slows Asia's manufacturing output

The first Asian elephant calf born through artificial insemination made its public appearance at St. Louis Zoo in the US. The elephant baby, named Jet, can be seen in the River’s Edge habitats or at the Emerson Zoo Line Railroad. Watch in for more details!

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A global report has raised serious alarms about the rise in drug-resistant infections, revealing that antibiotic resistance may have caused over 3 million child deaths. The overuse of last-resort antibiotics and post-COVID disruptions are fueling the crisis, especially in Africa and Asia. Experts call for urgent international action to combat the growing threat of superbugs.

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A series of four earthquakes struck different parts of Central and Southeast Asia within hours, triggering concern across the region. Myanmar’s Mektila recorded a 5.5 magnitude quake, while Tajikistan was hit by tremors measuring 6.1 and 3.9. A smaller 3.4 magnitude quake was also reported in Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi.

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The global tariff war has entered a new phase. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs of over 125% on Chinese imports, sharply escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies. Watch this report to know more!

Global growth at risk as economic giants clash

Asian stocks rebound after their worst day on record, but Chinese shares look set for another rough start due to the ongoing trade spat.
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