IMD predicts a harsh winter, severe cold waves for northwest and central India

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a harsh winter for India. As La Niña conditions are expected to arrive by October-November, northwest and central India is likely to witness severe cold waves during the season.

La Niña is the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that brings more rainfall to the Indian subcontinent.

While the southwest monsoon rains ended on Monday (Sep 30) with a surplus of eightper cent during the months from June to September, a delayed withdrawal is expected to be over by mid-October, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

“Rainfall activity is increasing in the week commencing from 17 October. If that goes right, we can expect that northeastern monsoon will set in over the southeastern peninsula by 17 October,” Mohapatra said during a press conference regarding monsoon and October weather outlook.

Although there is a delay in monsoon withdrawal, the official date remains unchanged for the country. “We are expecting that there will be withdrawal in the next one-week from northeastern India and then central India gradually. From the entire country, we will keep monitoring and be updating you on a weekly and daily basis,” said the IMD chief.

Usually, monsoon withdrawal begins on September 17 and exits by October 15. However, this year’s withdrawal is delayed due to a low-pressure system prevalent in northwest India.

This year’s rainfall was recorded above normal due to six depressions and 14 low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. The country’s weather was also affected by the cyclonic storm ‘Asna’ in the Arabian Sea, which was only the third cyclonic storm to form over the Arabian Sea in August since 1891.

Forecast for coming months

"There is a 71% chance that La Niña conditions will develop during October-November," said Mohapatra. This will likely result in colder than usual winter temperatures in northern India, including Delhi-NCR.

“La Nina condition is still weak and how much it will strengthen in January or February, that we have to monitor,” the IMD chiefadded. However, the severity of cold wave conditions will be revealed in November’s forecast.

While the Indian weather agencyhas predicted above-normal temperatures, the country is likely to witness more than usual rainfall in October.

(With inputs from agencies)