IMD predicts below-normal monsoon, heatwave as El Nino develops

The Indian Meteorological Department on Friday said that rainfall in India is going to be below normal owing to the El Niño weather pattern, which is likely to develop further in June and July. The IMD said that the rainfall is likely to be below normal at 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of ±4 per cent. For the month of June, the season of the Kharif crop, the rainfall is likely to sit below 92 per cent. Alongside the rain shortfall, the IMD warns of above-normal maximum temperatures and heightened heatwave days.

The IMD said that the neutral ENSO conditions over the equatorial Pacific are now transitioning towards El Niño. According to IMD forecast, June is likely to see a weak El Niño, July and August could see a weak-to-moderate, and after September it is likely to shift towards a moderate to strong phase.

“The forecast probability is not the only factor. We have issued 90 per cent of the LPA forecast based on the total quantity of rainfall that we are likely to receive during the season. So we look at dynamic factors also,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. The probability represents an overall 84 per cent probability of the monsoon being below-normal or deficient.

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IMD said rainfall is likely to be normal over Northeast India, 94-106 per cent of LPA, southern peninsula below normal at 94 per cent of the LPA, and Northwest India below 92 per cent of LPA. The rainfall for the June September season is below normal for most of the region, barring some pockets in the northwest, southern peninsula, eastern and adjoining east-central India. The forecast comes at a time when the country is facing an inflation trigger due to the war in West Asia; a further decrease in rainfall will likely hit the farm output and food prices.