<p>Former Pakistani prime minister and the president of the Pakistani Muslim League (PML-N), Nawaz Sharif chose his brother who is the current Chief Minister of the Punjab province (Pakistan), Shahbaz Sharif as the (PML)-N&rsquo;s prime ministerial candidate for the 2018 elections. The decision was made during the course of a meeting with senior leaders of the PML-N at Nawaz&rsquo;s Jatti Umra residence on December 20, 2017.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>There will be those who argue that this was very much expected, given the nature of dynastic politics, in general, and the family-centered politics of the PML-N in particular. There is some truth in this, yet it would be important to bear a few facts in mind.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>First, Nawaz Sharif&rsquo;s choice sends a clear message, that the reported strain between both brothers was caused, largely, by the ambitions of their respective children, Maryam Nawaz (daughter of Nawaz Sharif) and Hamza Shahbaz (son of Shahbaz Sharif). But much of the sources, Sharif claims, have been addressed at least for the time being. It would be pertinent to mention, that after the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif was expected to be the natural choice as his successor &ndash; both as prime minister and president.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>After his disqualification to hold Public Office by the Pakistan Supreme Court, Nawaz did name Shahbaz Sharif as his successor. Straining relations between both sides, however, resulted in Nawaz choosing current incumbent Abbasi as the interim prime minister. While the reason cited for not appointing Shahbaz as the prime minister in July 2017 was that the party wanted him to remain in Punjab and take care of the implementation of some key projects. A number of analysts believed, that if Shahbaz took over as the prime minister, Hamza Shahbaz would have become the Chief Minister of Punjab.&nbsp; Another point cited to reiterate the strains between Nawaz and Shahbaz families was the point that Hamza was not made in charge of the bye-election of Kulsoom Nawaz which was vacated as a result of Nawaz Sharif&rsquo;s resignation from Parliament</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>During the meeting on December 20, Nawaz Sharif did allude to Shahbaz Sharif&rsquo;s differences with the party over certain issues. While of course, praising him for his commitment to the party.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>He said: &lsquo;Shahbaz has always worked to further the party policies for public welfare and this unflagging attitude earned him the opportunity to be trusted for a higher office. We are a democratic political party where everyone is free to voice their mind. Shahbaz has had difference of opinion over some issues yet his commitment to the party overrules all else, which is why he has never violated the party discipline,&rdquo;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>By choosing Shahbaz, Nawaz has arrested any further deterioration in ties between both brothers, but also any sort of rebellion, since a number of senior leaders in the PNL-N,&nbsp; have been uncomfortable with the rise of Nawaz&rsquo; daughter, Maryam Nawaz. Apart from the fact, that she is inexperienced, Maryam is also one of the accused in the Panama Papers case.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>If one were to look beyond the politics of the Sharif family, and the dynamics of the PML-N, Shahbaz&rsquo; is important at a time when ties between the civilian government and military are at a low point. Shahbaz is more acceptable to the army, and has a better relationship than Nawaz.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>In the past, Nawaz Sharif would have gone the whole hog against the army, but a mellowed and mature Nawaz Sharif realises that any sort of clash will not help the country either politically or economically, and the military too would seek to cash in on the corruption cases against Nawaz.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The establishment (Army and ISI) has played a role, not just in the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, but it has also propped up the Milli Muslim League (a front of Lashkar-e-Taiba, LeT), yet publically it has been making the right noises. One of the important steps taken by the Army Chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa, was his briefing to a parliamentary committee on December 19, 2017. The briefing included a discussion of important national security issues, ties with India, the outcome of Army Chief&rsquo;s foreign visits and the Saudi-led military alliance of Muslim countries. The army chief also stated that the Army would back the government&rsquo;s initiatives to improve ties with India.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Pakistani army has always been good at PR exercises, and it realiSes that while there is disillusion with democratic forces, any sort of official take over, may not be taken to well by the Pakistani citizens. The recent moves by the army chief also seem to be in a similar direction.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Third, Shahbaz is known for his stellar governance record in Punjab, and is a trusted face with the voters in a PML-N vs. PPP. Nawaz Sharif made mention of this during the meeting with senior PPP leaders. Shahbaz Sharif has been able to not just bring in some big infrastructural projects but has also been successful in implementing welfare schemes as well as citizen-friendly initiatives.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Fourth, Shahbaz has close ties with a number of key countries. This includes China, GCC countries and Turkey. China has repeatedly praised Shahbaz Sharif for his administrative skills. With some dexterity, he may also be able to do some damage control in the context of ties with the US, which have witnessed a downward spiral.&nbsp; In the past, Shahbaz, as chief minister of Punjab, has tried to play a positive role in Indo-Pak peace efforts.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;In conclusion, PML-N Nawaz Sharif needs to be commended for making the correct decision. At this point, Shahbaz Sharif is the best bet for the PML-N as well as of Pakistan. Yet, PML-N would do well to become more consultative, and also address some of the genuine misgivings of the party. Shahbaz Sharif too will have to be more democratic in his functioning. While even his rivals confess that Sharif is a sound administrator, his style of functioning has been dubbed as abrasive at times.</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL).</em></p>


Former Pakistani prime minister and the president of the Pakistani Muslim League (PML-N), Nawaz Sharif chose his brother who is the current Chief Minister of the Punjab province (Pakistan), Shahbaz Sharif as the (PML)-N?s prime ministerial candidate for the 2018 elections.

Former Pakistani prime minister and the president of the Pakistani Muslim League (PML-N), Nawaz Sharif chose his brother who is the current Chief Minister of the Punjab province (Pakistan), Shahbaz Sharif as the (PML)-N’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2018 elections. The decision was made during the course of a meeting with senior leaders of the PML-N at Nawaz’s Jatti Umra residence on December 20, 2017. There will be those who argue that this was very much expected, given the nature of dynastic politics, in general, and the family-centered politics of the PML-N in particular. There is some truth in this, yet it would be important to bear a few facts in mind. First, Nawaz Sharif’s choice sends a clear message, that the reported strain between both brothers was caused, largely, by the ambitions of their respective children, Maryam Nawaz (daughter of Nawaz Sharif) and Hamza Shahbaz (son of Shahbaz Sharif). But much of the sources, Sharif claims, have been addressed at least for the time being. It would be pertinent to mention, that after the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif was expected to be the natural choice as his successor – both as prime minister and president. After his disqualification to hold Public Office by the Pakistan Supreme Court, Nawaz did name Shahbaz Sharif as his successor. Straining relations between both sides, however, resulted in Nawaz choosing current incumbent Abbasi as the interim prime minister. While the reason cited for not appointing Shahbaz as the prime minister in July 2017 was that the party wanted him to remain in Punjab and take care of the implementation of some key projects. A number of analysts believed, that if Shahbaz took over as the prime minister, Hamza Shahbaz would have become the Chief Minister of Punjab. Another point cited to reiterate the strains between Nawaz and Shahbaz families was the point that Hamza was not made in charge of the bye-election of Kulsoom Nawaz which was vacated as a result of Nawaz Sharif’s resignation from Parliament During the meeting on December 20, Nawaz Sharif did allude to Shahbaz Sharif’s differences with the party over certain issues. While of course, praising him for his commitment to the party. He said: ‘Shahbaz has always worked to further the party policies for public welfare and this unflagging attitude earned him the opportunity to be trusted for a higher office. We are a democratic political party where everyone is free to voice their mind. Shahbaz has had difference of opinion over some issues yet his commitment to the party overrules all else, which is why he has never violated the party discipline,” By choosing Shahbaz, Nawaz has arrested any further deterioration in ties between both brothers, but also any sort of rebellion, since a number of senior leaders in the PNL-N, have been uncomfortable with the rise of Nawaz’ daughter, Maryam Nawaz. Apart from the fact, that she is inexperienced, Maryam is also one of the accused in the Panama Papers case. If one were to look beyond the politics of the Sharif family, and the dynamics of the PML-N, Shahbaz’ is important at a time when ties between the civilian government and military are at a low point. Shahbaz is more acceptable to the army, and has a better relationship than Nawaz. In the past, Nawaz Sharif would have gone the whole hog against the army, but a mellowed and mature Nawaz Sharif realises that any sort of clash will not help the country either politically or economically, and the military too would seek to cash in on the corruption cases against Nawaz. The establishment (Army and ISI) has played a role, not just in the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, but it has also propped up the Milli Muslim League (a front of Lashkar-e-Taiba, LeT), yet publically it has been making the right noises. One of the important steps taken by the Army Chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa, was his briefing to a parliamentary committee on December 19, 2017. The briefing included a discussion of important national security issues, ties with India, the outcome of Army Chief’s foreign visits and the Saudi-led military alliance of Muslim countries. The army chief also stated that the Army would back the government’s initiatives to improve ties with India. The Pakistani army has always been good at PR exercises, and it realiSes that while there is disillusion with democratic forces, any sort of official take over, may not be taken to well by the Pakistani citizens. The recent moves by the army chief also seem to be in a similar direction. Third, Shahbaz is known for his stellar governance record in Punjab, and is a trusted face with the voters in a PML-N vs. PPP. Nawaz Sharif made mention of this during the meeting with senior PPP leaders. Shahbaz Sharif has been able to not just bring in some big infrastructural projects but has also been successful in implementing welfare schemes as well as citizen-friendly initiatives. Fourth, Shahbaz has close ties with a number of key countries. This includes China, GCC countries and Turkey. China has repeatedly praised Shahbaz Sharif for his administrative skills. With some dexterity, he may also be able to do some damage control in the context of ties with the US, which have witnessed a downward spiral. In the past, Shahbaz, as chief minister of Punjab, has tried to play a positive role in Indo-Pak peace efforts. In conclusion, PML-N Nawaz Sharif needs to be commended for making the correct decision. At this point, Shahbaz Sharif is the best bet for the PML-N as well as of Pakistan. Yet, PML-N would do well to become more consultative, and also address some of the genuine misgivings of the party. Shahbaz Sharif too will have to be more democratic in his functioning. While even his rivals confess that Sharif is a sound administrator, his style of functioning has been dubbed as abrasive at times. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL).

Opinion: What can India, Pakistan and US expect from Shahbaz Sharif?

<p>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Trump had a meeting on November 13, 2017, on the sidelines of the ASEAN and East Asia Summit held in Manila. This was days after India attended a meeting with Japanese, Australians and the US (this grouping has been dubbed as the Quad). Off late, the US has also spoken about a greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific, first Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did so, and during his visit to Asia, the US President Trump has referred to the Asia-Pacific as the Indo-Pacific much to the chagrin of the Chinese.</p>

<p>The Indian prime minister&rsquo;s emphasis on the need for New Delhi-Washington ties moving beyond the bilateral context was a clear reference to a greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific and greater cooperation between New Delhi and Washington DC.</p>

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<h5>The US President while highlighting India&rsquo;s democratic credentials and diversity, laid special emphasis on the stellar economic progress made by India.</h5>
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<p>Indian Prime Minister said, &quot;The cooperation between India and US can rise beyond bilateral cooperation and both countries can work for the future of Asia and the world. We are moving ahead together on many issues,&quot; Modi told Trump in his opening remarks&rsquo; Modi also expressed gratitude to Trump for expressing optimism with regard to the India growth story and stated that India would live up to US expectations.</p>

<p>Trump had lavished praise on India while addressing a gathering of CEO&#39;s on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Vietnam. The US President while highlighting India&rsquo;s democratic credentials and diversity, laid special emphasis on the stellar economic progress made by India. Said Trump: &ldquo;Since India opened its economy, it has achieved astounding growth and a new world of opportunities for its expanding middle class&rsquo;.</p>

<p>While there is a clear synergy, a few questions need to be kept in mind. The US President is transactional and unpredictable. While New Delhi should be happy with the current administration&rsquo;s repeated calls for granting a larger role to India in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi should not forget that Trump himself has given mixed signals with regard to the US role in the Indo-Pacific. Initially, the US President had backed a more isolationist role for the US, confusing its allies like Japan and South Korea. Only on the issue of North Korea, Trump has taken an unequivocally harsh stance.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Secondly, while Trump may at times make belligerent statements against China. Beijing has read him very well and understood that business deals work as a sweetener for the US President. This was clearly evident from Trump&rsquo;s recent China visit where the Chinese apart from laying out a red carpet, also signed business deals to the tune of 250 billion USD (the sceptics believe that many of these are MOU&#39;s).</p>

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<h5>While the Trump administration has made the right noises on Pakistan, New Delhi should not expect Washington to dump Islamabad or Rawalpindi.</h5>
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<p>Post the meeting between&nbsp;Trump and Xi, the US President&rsquo;s tone totally changed. While Washington having good ties with Beijing is not bad news for India, Trump&#39;s flip-flops certainly send a clear message that New Delhi should not solely depend upon Trump for its Indo-Pacific strategy, and neither should it&#39;s China policy be an extension of Washington&#39;s. Given their economic clout, the Chinese are in a good position to outmanoeuvre Trump.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Third, while the Trump administration has made the right noises on Pakistan, New Delhi should not expect Washington to dump Islamabad or Rawalpindi. Old hands in the state department will not let go so easily, and even on Afghanistan, Washington&rsquo;s policy will not echo India&rsquo;s though the synergies may increase. PM Modi&rsquo;s mention of India&rsquo;s recent decision to send a consignment of wheat to Afghanistan via Chabahar (Iran) sent an important message that just as Washington has its own priorities, so does New Delhi.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>What are India&rsquo;s options</strong></p>

<p>While the scepticism with regard to being part of a US-led alliance is over the top, the Quad in itself is not an answer to India&rsquo;s strategic challenges &ndash; especially with the rise of China. India&rsquo;s most reliable partner is Japan and Australia, which of&nbsp;late has witnessed significant strains in the relationship, and should be given high top priority.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Second, New Delhi should continue to explore synergies with China, but New Delhi should draw some red lines. China&rsquo;s approach of turning a blind eye towards the activities of Pakistani terror groups targeting India, especially its recent decision to block the UN ban on Azhar Masood should not go unnoticed. New Delhi should look at reducing economic dependence upon Chinese goods, and look at other alternatives. This can not happen overnight but should be an incremental process.</p>

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<h5>While New Delhi needs to get out of embedded biases&nbsp;and suspicion of the US, it also needs to realise, that it will have to fight its own battles.</h5>
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<p>Third, India has understood the importance of personalised diplomacy with Trump, and the importance he gives to business in bilateral relationships. This is useful, though not enough given the US President&#39;s flip-flops. Apart from this, a lot also depends upon the US President&#39;s domestic political capital. A vulnerable Trump could be even more isolationist and this does not help India&#39;s cause in any way.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
In conclusion, while New Delhi needs to get out of embedded biases&nbsp;and suspicion of the US, it also needs to realise, that it will have to fight its own battles. China&rsquo;s increasing leverage clearly shows that robust economic growth enhances diplomatic clout. Western democracies which pontificate about Human Rights and Democracy, have had to meekly surrender vis-&agrave;-vis Beijing on more than one occasion.</p>


India needs to develop business bilateral ties in order to fight its own battle.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Trump had a meeting on November 13, 2017, on the sidelines of the ASEAN and East Asia Summit held in Manila. This was days after India attended a meeting with Japanese, Australians and the US (this grouping has been dubbed as the Quad). Off late, the US has also spoken about a greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific, first Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did so, and during his visit to Asia, the US President Trump has referred to the Asia-Pacific as the Indo-Pacific much to the chagrin of the Chinese. The Indian prime minister’s emphasis on the need for New Delhi-Washington ties moving beyond the bilateral context was a clear reference to a greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific and greater cooperation between New Delhi and Washington DC. The US President while highlighting India’s democratic credentials and diversity, laid special emphasis on the stellar economic progress made by India. × Indian Prime Minister said, "The cooperation between India and US can rise beyond bilateral cooperation and both countries can work for the future of Asia and the world. We are moving ahead together on many issues," Modi told Trump in his opening remarks’ Modi also expressed gratitude to Trump for expressing optimism with regard to the India growth story and stated that India would live up to US expectations. Trump had lavished praise on India while addressing a gathering of CEO's on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Vietnam. The US President while highlighting India’s democratic credentials and diversity, laid special emphasis on the stellar economic progress made by India. Said Trump: “Since India opened its economy, it has achieved astounding growth and a new world of opportunities for its expanding middle class’. While there is a clear synergy, a few questions need to be kept in mind. The US President is transactional and unpredictable. While New Delhi should be happy with the current administration’s repeated calls for granting a larger role to India in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi should not forget that Trump himself has given mixed signals with regard to the US role in the Indo-Pacific. Initially, the US President had backed a more isolationist role for the US, confusing its allies like Japan and South Korea. Only on the issue of North Korea, Trump has taken an unequivocally harsh stance. Secondly, while Trump may at times make belligerent statements against China. Beijing has read him very well and understood that business deals work as a sweetener for the US President. This was clearly evident from Trump’s recent China visit where the Chinese apart from laying out a red carpet, also signed business deals to the tune of 250 billion USD (the sceptics believe that many of these are MOU's). While the Trump administration has made the right noises on Pakistan, New Delhi should not expect Washington to dump Islamabad or Rawalpindi. × Post the meeting between Trump and Xi, the US President’s tone totally changed. While Washington having good ties with Beijing is not bad news for India, Trump's flip-flops certainly send a clear message that New Delhi should not solely depend upon Trump for its Indo-Pacific strategy, and neither should it's China policy be an extension of Washington's. Given their economic clout, the Chinese are in a good position to outmanoeuvre Trump. Third, while the Trump administration has made the right noises on Pakistan, New Delhi should not expect Washington to dump Islamabad or Rawalpindi. Old hands in the state department will not let go so easily, and even on Afghanistan, Washington’s policy will not echo India’s though the synergies may increase. PM Modi’s mention of India’s recent decision to send a consignment of wheat to Afghanistan via Chabahar (Iran) sent an important message that just as Washington has its own priorities, so does New Delhi. What are India’s options While the scepticism with regard to being part of a US-led alliance is over the top, the Quad in itself is not an answer to India’s strategic challenges – especially with the rise of China. India’s most reliable partner is Japan and Australia, which of late has witnessed significant strains in the relationship, and should be given high top priority. Second, New Delhi should continue to explore synergies with China, but New Delhi should draw some red lines. China’s approach of turning a blind eye towards the activities of Pakistani terror groups targeting India, especially its recent decision to block the UN ban on Azhar Masood should not go unnoticed. New Delhi should look at reducing economic dependence upon Chinese goods, and look at other alternatives. This can not happen overnight but should be an incremental process. While New Delhi needs to get out of embedded biases and suspicion of the US, it also needs to realise, that it will have to fight its own battles. × Third, India has understood the importance of personalised diplomacy with Trump, and the importance he gives to business in bilateral relationships. This is useful, though not enough given the US President's flip-flops. Apart from this, a lot also depends upon the US President's domestic political capital. A vulnerable Trump could be even more isolationist and this does not help India's cause in any way. In conclusion, while New Delhi needs to get out of embedded biases and suspicion of the US, it also needs to realise, that it will have to fight its own battles. China’s increasing leverage clearly shows that robust economic growth enhances diplomatic clout. Western democracies which pontificate about Human Rights and Democracy, have had to meekly surrender vis-à-vis Beijing on more than one occasion.

Trump unreliable; India needs robust economy to counter China

<p><strong>By:&nbsp;Tridivesh Singh Maini &amp; Sandeep Sachdeva</strong></p>

<p>Ties between Australia and China have been strained recently. Only a few days ago, Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull urged China to take a tougher stand against North Korea.</p>

<p>On August 31, 2017, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/31/china-should-cut-off-north-korea-oil-supply-says-turnbull">Turnbull&nbsp;</a>said, &quot;China has by far the greatest leverage&quot;.&nbsp;&ldquo;China really has to step up now and bring this regime to its senses. &ldquo;They are committed to stop buying coal, iron ore, seafood and other products from North Korea. They can go further &ndash; they can cut off their oil supply for example&rdquo;, he added.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-03/china-should-curb-unlawful,-reckless-north-korea:-turnbull/8586008">Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2017</a>, Turnbull had minced no words and urged China to play by a rule based structure (alluding it to its assertiveness on the South China Sea Issue).</p>

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<h5>A lecturer of the University of Sydney was forced to apologise for a map which depicted Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, and Ladakh as part of India, while China considers these as disputed territory.</h5>
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<p>It is not just differences in the strategic sphere, which have been clearly evident in recent months. Australia has also been uncomfortable with Chinese students being excessively assertive on University campuses. There have been at least four instances, wherein Chinese international students in Australia have pressurised lecturers to apologise under the pretext of making offensive comments. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-03/china-should-curb-unlawful,-reckless-north-korea:-turnbull/8586008">A lecturer of the University of Sydney</a> was forced to apologise for a map which depicted Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, and Ladakh as part of India, while China considers these as disputed territory. This incident had happened 18 months ago, but the Doklam dispute provoked Chinese students to not just use harsh words for the Professor, Khimji Vaghjiani, who happened to be of Indian origin, on a University WeChat account.</p>

<p>Students also protested outside the <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinese-students-expats-flex-muscle-over-doklam-in-australia/articleshow/60304007.cms">Indian Consulate</a> in Sydney on this issue, this was during the Doklam standoff. One of the placards read: &quot;Anyone who offends China will be killed no matter how far the target is.&quot;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Commenting on this assertiveness by Chinese students, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/end-the-isolation-of-chinese-students-in-australia-20170902-gy9iv6.html">John Garnaut</a>, a former adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, had stated, &quot;Beijing is stirring up &#39;red hot patriotism&#39; among Chinese students on Australian campuses&quot;. He went on to describe it as national security risks for Australia.</p>

<p>Australia needs to be commended for taking a principled stand against aggressive Chinese students in spite of having close economic ties with China. The bilateral trade between both countries is well over 100 Billion USD. Apart from it, in last ten years <a href="https://www.google.co.in/amp/amp.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/5-things-to-know-about-china-and-australia-s-economic-ties">Australia has also received</a> the second highest volume of Chinese direct investment.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>Australia needs to be commended for taking a principled stand against aggressive Chinese students in spite of having close economic ties with China.</h5>
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<p>On the other hand, Trump has spoken tough against China on not just the issue of North Korea but also dubbed China as a currency manipulator. As soon as North Korea formally announced that it has conducted hydrogen bomb test on this weekend, President Trump not only lambasted the North Korea but also took aim at China for the current political crisis as he tweeted &quot;North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.&rdquo;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/north-korea-nuclear-test-united-states-may-sanction-chinas-major-banks-to-rein-in-pyongyang.html">Trump further tweeted</a> that the U.S. is considering &quot;Stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.&rdquo;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/north-korea-nuclear-test-united-states-may-sanction-chinas-major-banks-to-rein-in-pyongyang.html">According to media</a> reports, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is drafting a harsher sanctions package against North Korea and its trading partner. It is especially aimed China because it is North Korea&#39;s largest trading partner, accounting for 85 per cent of its total trade.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Yet, due to economic interests of the US, as well as some voices in the state department, which urge restraint US while making belligerent noises is compelled to rightly act in a nuanced manner, which Beijing perceives as the weakness of Washington DC.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Even on the second issue, Chinese students have been asserting themselves on US campuses. There are over <a href="https://qz.com/908922/chinese-students-at-ucsd-are-evoking-diversity-to-justify-their-opposition-to-the-dalai-lamas-graduation-speech/">300,000 Chinese students in the US</a>. <a href="https://www.nas.org/images/documents/confucius_institutes/NAS_confuciusInstitutes.pdf">Confucius institutes on US Campuses</a> follow a Chinese agenda, and controversial issues like the Cultural Revolution, The Tiananmen Square are not discussed. A close watch is kept on the activities of Chinese students, and those criticising China. Associations always vehemently opposed Universities for their decisions on related issues. This year in June 2017, Chinese Students and Scholars Association (CSSA) opposed the <a href="https://www.google.co.in/amp/amp.timeinc.net/time/4821653/dalai-lama-university-california-san-diego-commencement-address/%3fsource=dam">Dalai Lama&rsquo;s commencement address</a> at the University of California, San Diego.</p>

<p>Initially, the CCSA admitted that: &quot;It had been in contact with the People&rsquo;s Republic of China Consulate General in Los Angeles at the earliest opportunity since the matter arose,&rdquo; and &ldquo;was waiting for the advice of the Consulate General.&rdquo; Later on, it issued a denial.</p>

<p>While the US has begun to take note of assertiveness by Chinese students, it is still excessively tolerant, towards incidents while Australia is seeking to nip the evil in the bud. While a number of countries, posing to be the beacons of democracy, do make noise about democracy and liberal values, but their economic constraints have prevented them from doing so. In this sense, Australia deserves full marks.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>Australia, Japan, and India can show the way, not just through strategic cooperation, but also by raising greater awareness against Chinese assertiveness in countries in South Asia and South East Asia.</h5>
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<p>Australia&rsquo;s ties with Japan and India are more robust in the context of the Asia Pacific and are likely to get only closer with Trump&#39;s unpredictability, and American cautiousness vis-a-vis China, in spite of all the bluster. Even in the context of defending liberal values and democratic ideals, countries in the Asia-Pacific region need to work together. Australia, Japan, and India can show the way, not just through strategic cooperation, but also by raising greater awareness against Chinese assertiveness in countries in South Asia and South East Asia. While it may seem ambitious at this time, there is also scope for the three countries to work closely to send a clear message, that none of these countries is willing to make any compromise with democratic ideals like freedom of speech and diversity of opinion.</p>

<p>The battle in the Asia-Pacific region is not just about economics and security, but also about values. And the Australia-India-Japan tri-lateral can certainly lead the way.</p>


John Garnaut, a former adviser to Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull, had stated, "Beijing is stirring up 'red hot patriotism' among Chinese students on Australian campuses".

By: Tridivesh Singh Maini & Sandeep Sachdeva Ties between Australia and China have been strained recently. Only a few days ago, Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull urged China to take a tougher stand against North Korea. On August 31, 2017, Turnbull said, "China has by far the greatest leverage". “China really has to step up now and bring this regime to its senses. “They are committed to stop buying coal, iron ore, seafood and other products from North Korea. They can go further – they can cut off their oil supply for example”, he added. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2017, Turnbull had minced no words and urged China to play by a rule based structure (alluding it to its assertiveness on the South China Sea Issue). A lecturer of the University of Sydney was forced to apologise for a map which depicted Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, and Ladakh as part of India, while China considers these as disputed territory. × It is not just differences in the strategic sphere, which have been clearly evident in recent months. Australia has also been uncomfortable with Chinese students being excessively assertive on University campuses. There have been at least four instances, wherein Chinese international students in Australia have pressurised lecturers to apologise under the pretext of making offensive comments. A lecturer of the University of Sydney was forced to apologise for a map which depicted Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, and Ladakh as part of India, while China considers these as disputed territory. This incident had happened 18 months ago, but the Doklam dispute provoked Chinese students to not just use harsh words for the Professor, Khimji Vaghjiani, who happened to be of Indian origin, on a University WeChat account. Students also protested outside the Indian Consulate in Sydney on this issue, this was during the Doklam standoff. One of the placards read: "Anyone who offends China will be killed no matter how far the target is." Commenting on this assertiveness by Chinese students, John Garnaut, a former adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, had stated, "Beijing is stirring up 'red hot patriotism' among Chinese students on Australian campuses". He went on to describe it as national security risks for Australia. Australia needs to be commended for taking a principled stand against aggressive Chinese students in spite of having close economic ties with China. The bilateral trade between both countries is well over 100 Billion USD. Apart from it, in last ten years Australia has also received the second highest volume of Chinese direct investment. Australia needs to be commended for taking a principled stand against aggressive Chinese students in spite of having close economic ties with China. × On the other hand, Trump has spoken tough against China on not just the issue of North Korea but also dubbed China as a currency manipulator. As soon as North Korea formally announced that it has conducted hydrogen bomb test on this weekend, President Trump not only lambasted the North Korea but also took aim at China for the current political crisis as he tweeted "North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.” Trump further tweeted that the U.S. is considering "Stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.” According to media reports, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is drafting a harsher sanctions package against North Korea and its trading partner. It is especially aimed China because it is North Korea's largest trading partner, accounting for 85 per cent of its total trade. Yet, due to economic interests of the US, as well as some voices in the state department, which urge restraint US while making belligerent noises is compelled to rightly act in a nuanced manner, which Beijing perceives as the weakness of Washington DC. Even on the second issue, Chinese students have been asserting themselves on US campuses. There are over 300,000 Chinese students in the US. Confucius institutes on US Campuses follow a Chinese agenda, and controversial issues like the Cultural Revolution, The Tiananmen Square are not discussed. A close watch is kept on the activities of Chinese students, and those criticising China. Associations always vehemently opposed Universities for their decisions on related issues. This year in June 2017, Chinese Students and Scholars Association (CSSA) opposed the Dalai Lama’s commencement address at the University of California, San Diego. Initially, the CCSA admitted that: "It had been in contact with the People’s Republic of China Consulate General in Los Angeles at the earliest opportunity since the matter arose,” and “was waiting for the advice of the Consulate General.” Later on, it issued a denial. While the US has begun to take note of assertiveness by Chinese students, it is still excessively tolerant, towards incidents while Australia is seeking to nip the evil in the bud. While a number of countries, posing to be the beacons of democracy, do make noise about democracy and liberal values, but their economic constraints have prevented them from doing so. In this sense, Australia deserves full marks. Australia, Japan, and India can show the way, not just through strategic cooperation, but also by raising greater awareness against Chinese assertiveness in countries in South Asia and South East Asia. × Australia’s ties with Japan and India are more robust in the context of the Asia Pacific and are likely to get only closer with Trump's unpredictability, and American cautiousness vis-a-vis China, in spite of all the bluster. Even in the context of defending liberal values and democratic ideals, countries in the Asia-Pacific region need to work together. Australia, Japan, and India can show the way, not just through strategic cooperation, but also by raising greater awareness against Chinese assertiveness in countries in South Asia and South East Asia. While it may seem ambitious at this time, there is also scope for the three countries to work closely to send a clear message, that none of these countries is willing to make any compromise with democratic ideals like freedom of speech and diversity of opinion. The battle in the Asia-Pacific region is not just about economics and security, but also about values. And the Australia-India-Japan tri-lateral can certainly lead the way.

Australia determined to curb Chinese students making anti-India comments. Should US follow the same?

<p><strong>By:&nbsp;Tridivesh Singh Maini &amp; Sandeep Sachdeva*</strong></p>

<p>New Delhi,&nbsp;while consistently expanding strategic and economic ties with the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) and Israel, has also sought to strengthen ties with Tehran, which has tense relations with both. The Nuclear Deal of 2015, signed between Iran and<strong> </strong>(P5+1) countries opened new vistas for India in Iran, which is strategically located and is India&rsquo;s potential gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia.&nbsp;</p>

<p>During his visit to Iran in 2016, PM Modi signed an agreement, not just committing financial assistance&nbsp;to the tune of 500 Million USD for phase 1 of the development of the Chabahar Project, but also a three nation agreement with Iran and Afghanistan&nbsp;for establishing a land, transit and trade corridor. India will build a <a href="http://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/tridivesh-en/33618/">500-km rail line</a> from Chabahar port from the southern coast of Iran to Zahedan, close to the Afghan border, at a cost of $1.6 billion as part of the transit corridor to Afghanistan. &quot;It will open new routes for India, Iran, and Afghanistan to connect among themselves,&quot; said PM Modi with regard to the corridor.</p>

<p>India&rsquo;s main aim was to get access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan has continuously opposed India&rsquo;s entry into the <a href="http://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/tridivesh-en/33618/">APTTA</a>&nbsp;(Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement), even though Afghanistan has been in favour of India joining the agreement. APTTA is a transit trade agreement as it is quite evident from its name. Currently, Afghan goods can come into India, but trucks stop at Wagah (Pakistani side of the border). India, however, has been deprived of land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.</p>

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<h5>Given India&rsquo;s increasingly close ties with the US, and importance of Iran in the context of connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia, striking a balance may be a challenge given Trump&rsquo;s unpredictability.</h5>
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<p>There have been some hitches with regard to the Chabahar project kicking off by 2018. The <a href="https://www.google.co.in/amp/www.firstpost.com/india/chabahar-port-why-future-of-india-iran-project-hinges-on-outcome-of-narendra-modi-donald-trump-meet-3722647.html/amp">companies which are to develop customised equipment jetties and container terminals</a> were not willing to take part in the bidding process. The banks were not ready to facilitate the financial transactions involving Iran due to the uncertain policies of Trump administration towards&nbsp;Iran. Apart from this, there was a delay in <a href="http://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/iran-india-trade-charges-on-delay-of-chabahar-port/articleshow/56990454.cms">loan disbursement of $ 150 million</a>&nbsp;with India and Iran blaming each other for the delay. Transport minister, Nitin Gadkari who attended Iranian President Rouhani&rsquo;s swearing in on August 5, 2017, categorically stated:</p>

<p>&quot;India and Iran have been historically sharing special ties. We are keen on developing Chabahar Port and are hopeful of starting operations in 12 to 18 months.&quot;</p>

<p><strong>US-Iran ties</strong></p>

<p>India, however, needs to carefully observe Trump&rsquo;s warnings to Iran on the nuclear deal. Iran has categorically stated, that it will quit the Nuclear Deal if more sanctions are imposed. Rouhani&#39;s exact words were:&nbsp;&quot;Iran could quit the nuclear deal within hours if the US imposes more sanctions.&quot;</p>

<p>Even though Iran has followed the conditions of the deal, Trump has threatened about imposing sanctions. The Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,&nbsp;however, has made it clear on umpteen occasions, that the US will not scrap the deal. Interestingly, Tillerson has also stated, that he and the US President have differences over the deal. Whereas President Trump is in favour of calling off the deal and imposing new sanctions, secretary of state <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tillerson-iran-idUSKBN1AH5E7">Tillerson </a>subscribes to the view, that America should not strike the deal rather engage with Iran to bring stability in the neighbourhood, especially in Iraq and Syria by holding it accountable.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Given India&rsquo;s increasingly close ties with the US, and importance of Iran in the context of connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia, striking a balance may be a challenge given Trump&rsquo;s unpredictability.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>Iran-Pakistan ties&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p>New Delhi should also observe carefully Iran&rsquo;s support for Pakistan, particularly after Trump&rsquo;s speech on August 21 where he warned Pakistan to take more concrete action against terror groups operating on Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Iran came to the defence of Pakistan, with foreign ministry spokesman, Bahram Ghasemi saying:</p>

<p>&quot;What presently the US is highlighting to condemn other countries with is the result of years of wrong and inappropriate policies of Americans in the countries of the region, especially Afghanistan.&rdquo;</p>

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<h5>Iran already has strong economic ties with China, moving closer to Pakistan would not be good news for India.</h5>
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<p>Iran already has strong economic ties with China, and it moving closer to Pakistan would not be good news for India. New Delhi has been trying to jointly work with both Afghanistan and Iran much to the chagrin of the Pakistan army.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Significantly, in May 2017, Iran had taken a tough stance against certain terror groups operating from Pakistan, warning that it would hit the bases of Sunni militant groups operating in Pakistan. In April 2017, Ten Iranian border guards had been killed by militants and Iran blamed Sunni groups operating from Pakistan. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-pakistan-security-idUSKBN1840SY">Major General Mohammad Baqeri</a>, head of the Iranian armed forces had said, &ldquo;If the terrorist attacks continue, we will hit their safe havens and cells, wherever they are.&rdquo;&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>Middle East</strong></p>

<p>New Delhi should also be watching the gradual softening of Iran towards Saudi Arabia and Turkey. On the sidelines of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Istanbul earlier this month, the <a href="#vgi=11831571547160704589&amp;amp=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.al-monitor.com%252Fpulse%252Fen%252Foriginals%252F2017%252F08%252Firan-zarif-jubeir-saudi-fm-handshake-istanbul-shamkhani-deal.amp.html&amp;ampidx=0&amp;ampct=1504066232985">foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia</a> met and exchanged greetings. Earlier this month Iranian chief of staff of the armed forces, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-iran-military-idUSKCN1AW1PT">Major-General Mohammad Baqeri</a> paid a visit to Turkey to explore possible synergies in counter-terrorism and the Syrian conflict. This is a clear indication of a significant improvement in bilateral ties. It has also been reported, that their high-level officials are likely to meet again.&nbsp;</p>

<p>While New Delhi has strong ties with both, and this has been a challenge in the past, the tensions were also to the benefit of India. Due to tensions between Iran and GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, New Delhi could also pressurise both sides to urge Pakistan to take action against terror groups. Apart from strengthening of India-US ties, Saudi Arabia has been apprehensive about India getting too close to Iran. This has resulted in Riyadh not just adopting a more nuanced stand on terrorism emanating from Pakistan and extraditing terrorists, but also strengthening security cooperation with India.&nbsp;</p>

<p>While currently, India is bogged down with numerous domestic challenges, and other foreign policy priorities, especially with China,&nbsp;a close watch should be kept on Iran&rsquo;s next moves not just in the context of its deal with the US, but also on&nbsp;its ties with Pakistan and GCC countries.&nbsp;</p>

<p>*Sandeep Sachdeva is an Independent Policy Analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, Sonipat.</p>


Iran already has strong economic ties with China, and it moving closer to Pakistan would not be good news for India.

By: Tridivesh Singh Maini & Sandeep Sachdeva* New Delhi, while consistently expanding strategic and economic ties with the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) and Israel, has also sought to strengthen ties with Tehran, which has tense relations with both. The Nuclear Deal of 2015, signed between Iran and (P5+1) countries opened new vistas for India in Iran, which is strategically located and is India’s potential gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. During his visit to Iran in 2016, PM Modi signed an agreement, not just committing financial assistance to the tune of 500 Million USD for phase 1 of the development of the Chabahar Project, but also a three nation agreement with Iran and Afghanistan for establishing a land, transit and trade corridor. India will build a 500-km rail line from Chabahar port from the southern coast of Iran to Zahedan, close to the Afghan border, at a cost of $1.6 billion as part of the transit corridor to Afghanistan. "It will open new routes for India, Iran, and Afghanistan to connect among themselves," said PM Modi with regard to the corridor. India’s main aim was to get access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan has continuously opposed India’s entry into the APTTA (Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement), even though Afghanistan has been in favour of India joining the agreement. APTTA is a transit trade agreement as it is quite evident from its name. Currently, Afghan goods can come into India, but trucks stop at Wagah (Pakistani side of the border). India, however, has been deprived of land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Given India’s increasingly close ties with the US, and importance of Iran in the context of connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia, striking a balance may be a challenge given Trump’s unpredictability. × There have been some hitches with regard to the Chabahar project kicking off by 2018. The companies which are to develop customised equipment jetties and container terminals were not willing to take part in the bidding process. The banks were not ready to facilitate the financial transactions involving Iran due to the uncertain policies of Trump administration towards Iran. Apart from this, there was a delay in loan disbursement of $ 150 million with India and Iran blaming each other for the delay. Transport minister, Nitin Gadkari who attended Iranian President Rouhani’s swearing in on August 5, 2017, categorically stated: "India and Iran have been historically sharing special ties. We are keen on developing Chabahar Port and are hopeful of starting operations in 12 to 18 months." US-Iran ties India, however, needs to carefully observe Trump’s warnings to Iran on the nuclear deal. Iran has categorically stated, that it will quit the Nuclear Deal if more sanctions are imposed. Rouhani's exact words were: "Iran could quit the nuclear deal within hours if the US imposes more sanctions." Even though Iran has followed the conditions of the deal, Trump has threatened about imposing sanctions. The Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, however, has made it clear on umpteen occasions, that the US will not scrap the deal. Interestingly, Tillerson has also stated, that he and the US President have differences over the deal. Whereas President Trump is in favour of calling off the deal and imposing new sanctions, secretary of state Tillerson subscribes to the view, that America should not strike the deal rather engage with Iran to bring stability in the neighbourhood, especially in Iraq and Syria by holding it accountable. Given India’s increasingly close ties with the US, and importance of Iran in the context of connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia, striking a balance may be a challenge given Trump’s unpredictability. Iran-Pakistan ties New Delhi should also observe carefully Iran’s support for Pakistan, particularly after Trump’s speech on August 21 where he warned Pakistan to take more concrete action against terror groups operating on Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Iran came to the defence of Pakistan, with foreign ministry spokesman, Bahram Ghasemi saying: "What presently the US is highlighting to condemn other countries with is the result of years of wrong and inappropriate policies of Americans in the countries of the region, especially Afghanistan.” Iran already has strong economic ties with China, moving closer to Pakistan would not be good news for India. × Iran already has strong economic ties with China, and it moving closer to Pakistan would not be good news for India. New Delhi has been trying to jointly work with both Afghanistan and Iran much to the chagrin of the Pakistan army. Significantly, in May 2017, Iran had taken a tough stance against certain terror groups operating from Pakistan, warning that it would hit the bases of Sunni militant groups operating in Pakistan. In April 2017, Ten Iranian border guards had been killed by militants and Iran blamed Sunni groups operating from Pakistan. Major General Mohammad Baqeri, head of the Iranian armed forces had said, “If the terrorist attacks continue, we will hit their safe havens and cells, wherever they are.” Middle East New Delhi should also be watching the gradual softening of Iran towards Saudi Arabia and Turkey. On the sidelines of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Istanbul earlier this month, the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met and exchanged greetings. Earlier this month Iranian chief of staff of the armed forces, Major-General Mohammad Baqeri paid a visit to Turkey to explore possible synergies in counter-terrorism and the Syrian conflict. This is a clear indication of a significant improvement in bilateral ties. It has also been reported, that their high-level officials are likely to meet again. While New Delhi has strong ties with both, and this has been a challenge in the past, the tensions were also to the benefit of India. Due to tensions between Iran and GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, New Delhi could also pressurise both sides to urge Pakistan to take action against terror groups. Apart from strengthening of India-US ties, Saudi Arabia has been apprehensive about India getting too close to Iran. This has resulted in Riyadh not just adopting a more nuanced stand on terrorism emanating from Pakistan and extraditing terrorists, but also strengthening security cooperation with India. While currently, India is bogged down with numerous domestic challenges, and other foreign policy priorities, especially with China, a close watch should be kept on Iran’s next moves not just in the context of its deal with the US, but also on its ties with Pakistan and GCC countries. *Sandeep Sachdeva is an Independent Policy Analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, Sonipat.

India should be careful about Iran's softening of stance towards Pakistan and China

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>By Tridivesh Singh Maini &amp;&nbsp;Sandeep Sachdeva*</p>

<p><strong>How should New Delhi react to Doha&rsquo;s isolation?&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p>On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and the Maldives suspended all diplomatic ties with Qatar, stating that the country was fomenting, extremism and radicalism. The Saudi Arabian state run press agency said &quot;Qatar is harboring a multitude of terrorist and sectarian groups that aim to create instability in the region&quot;. Doha was of course quick to deny all such allegations. Significantly, the move came exactly two weeks after US President Donald Trump&rsquo;s visit to Saudi Arabia.</p>

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<h5>While Saudi Arabia and other countries accused Qatar of supporting extremist terrorist &nbsp;organizations like Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Daesh, Al Qaeda and Hamas.</h5>
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<p>The Saudi Kingdom and other GCC countries, not only created a blockade like situation, by closing the border and denying air and sea route to Qatar, but also urged &quot;all brotherly countries and companies to do the same&quot;.</p>

<p>While Saudi Arabia and other countries accused Qatar of supporting extremist terrorist &nbsp;organisations, such as&nbsp;Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Daesh, Al Qaeda and Hamas. While most analysts point to external factors for the decision to sideline Qatar, it is also a result of rivalry between the Saudis and Qatar. The former has thought of itself for long as the undisputed leader of the Islamic World, while off late Qatar by taking an independent foreign policy stance, while also differing on a number of foreign policy issues has sought to distinguish itself. Significantly, the Taliban had set up an office in Afghanistan, which was later shut down. Qatar has also sought to play a role in reconciliation taks between Taliban and Afghanistan.</p>

<p>On June 14, 2017, Mutlaq al-Qahtani, a senior counterterrorism adviser to Qatar&rsquo;s foreign minister said &ldquo;Qatar hosted the Taliban reconciliation talks with the Afghan government on the request from the United States but now U.S. President Donald Trump along with a number of Arab regimes has accused Doha of supporting extremist groups,&rdquo; &nbsp;Apart from this, Doha has also maintained a manageable relationship with Iran.</p>

<p><strong>What has been the role of major powers in this issue?</strong></p>

<p>All major powers are taking sides in accordance with their interests. The US, seems to be fueling tension in the region instead of diffusing it. On the very first day, the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson gave a statement on Monday while on a state visit in Australia, urging the Gulf states to stay united. However, Tillerson&rsquo;s assurances came under doubt after Presidents Trump sided with Saudis, and lambasted Qatar for fomenting terror stating, &ldquo;The time had come to call on Qatar to end it&rsquo;s funding&hellip;&hellip;and it&rsquo;s extremist ideology&rdquo;. Later, US President Donald Trump realised that Qatar hosts the biggest US military Base in the region, and spoke over telephone with Qatar&#39;s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, expressing readiness to participate in the efforts to resolve the crisis in the GCC. More recently, the US not only finalised arm deal of worth 12 billion US dollars but also sent US Navy vessels to Doha to take part in a joint military exercise with the Qatari Emiri Navy.</p>

<p>Turkey&#39;s parliament has approved a legislation allowing its troops to be deployed to a Turkish military base in Qatar.</p>

<p>Though Russia has taken a neutral position from the start of the conflict, it sympathises with Qatar rather than with Saudi Arabia and its allies, because the investment authority of Qatar has made significant investments in different sectors, during difficult economic time.</p>

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<h5>Sushma Swaraj categorically stated that, &ldquo;There is no challenge arising out of this for us. This is an internal matter of GCC (Gulf Coordination Council). Our only concern is about Indians there. We are trying to find out if any Indians are stuck there.</h5>
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<p><strong>Indian stake in Qatar&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p>More than 650,000 Indians are living in Qatar. Almost half of the Indians (3,00000) are from Kerala. Kerala CM &nbsp;Pinarayi Vijayan wrote to the central government and sought its intervention for ensuring the safety of these Indians.India&rsquo;s Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj categorically stated that, &ldquo;There is no challenge arising out of this for us. This is an internal matter of GCC (Gulf Coordination Council). Our only concern is about Indians there. We are trying to find out if any Indians are stuck there.&quot;</p>

<p>It is estimated, that expats from Arab nations, send back remittance of well over 60 billion US dollars to India annually. A large number of these resident are in Qatar, on contract to work for the FIFA World Cup, to be hosted by the country in 2022. If one were to look beyond remittances and the diaspora factor, India has strong economic connections with Qatar in the economic sphere. They include:</p>

<p><strong>Energy</strong></p>

<p>Qatar has the world&#39;s third-largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran,&nbsp;and is the largest supplier of LNG to India, accounting for 66 per cent of the total imports in 2015-16. It is worth noting that last year India renegotiated the gas price formula and saved around 20000 crore rupees.</p>

<p><strong>Investment</strong></p>

<p>Qatar has a sovereign wealth fund of around 300 billion US dollars, which is managed by the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA). It has significant investments in India across the board such as Qatar Foundation Endowment picked up 5 per cent&nbsp;stake in Bharti Airtel &nbsp;with an investment of US$ 1.26 billion in July 2013. In July 2013, Qatar Investment Authority decided to invest US$300 million in India&rsquo;s real estate sector. QIA invested US$ 150 million in India&rsquo;s e-commerce major Flipkart. At the same time, Indian companies have invested US$ 100 million in different joint ventures across the different sectors. Qatar Airways and QIA are planning to invest in Airlines sector of India. India has been engaging with QIA and other state-owned and private entities in Qatar to draw investment for PM Modi&rsquo;s flagship program &lsquo;Make in India&rsquo;.</p>

<p><strong>Trade</strong></p>

<p>According to the Indian embassy in Doha, &ldquo;The bilateral trade had touched nearly US$17 billion in 2013-14, with India&#39;s exports amounting to nearly US$1.0 billion.&rdquo; India mainly exports iron or steel, plastic &amp; articles thereof, construction material, electrical and electronic items, textiles, chemicals, precious stones, rubber, spices and cereals to Qatar.</p>

<p>Apart from it, Qatar hosts many Indian companies. There are a total of 26, 100 per cent&nbsp;Indian owned companies working in Qatar in various fields such as infrastructure, contracting, information technology, gold trade, and food items trade. Nearly 6,500 Qatari-Indian companies in joint venture partnerships are working practically in all fields in the country. Many Indian companies such as L&amp;T, Dodsal, Punj Lloyd, Shapoorji Pallonji, Voltas, Tata motors, Simplex, TCS, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Aptech and NIIT have set up offices in Qatar and have secured major contracts/business.&nbsp;</p>

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<p><strong>Indian strategy</strong></p>

<p>New Delhi needs to take care of its national interests as other countries are doing. While in the short run, India could face significant economic challenges, with lay offs of sections of Indian workers being a significant possibility. Yet, New Delhi needs to think out of the box, and ensure that its relationship with Qatar is not viewed from the prism of Saudi Arabia and other countries. New Delhi needs to look at the isolation of Qatar as an opportunity in the long run, which it should seek to leverage for economic and strategic purposes.</p>

<p>*Sandeep Sachdeva is an Independent Policy Analyst.</p>


New Delhi needs to look at the isolation of Qatar as an opportunity in the long run

By Tridivesh Singh Maini & Sandeep Sachdeva* How should New Delhi react to Doha’s isolation? On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and the Maldives suspended all diplomatic ties with Qatar, stating that the country was fomenting, extremism and radicalism. The Saudi Arabian state run press agency said "Qatar is harboring a multitude of terrorist and sectarian groups that aim to create instability in the region". Doha was of course quick to deny all such allegations. Significantly, the move came exactly two weeks after US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia. While Saudi Arabia and other countries accused Qatar of supporting extremist terrorist organizations like Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Daesh, Al Qaeda and Hamas. × The Saudi Kingdom and other GCC countries, not only created a blockade like situation, by closing the border and denying air and sea route to Qatar, but also urged "all brotherly countries and companies to do the same". While Saudi Arabia and other countries accused Qatar of supporting extremist terrorist organisations, such as Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Daesh, Al Qaeda and Hamas. While most analysts point to external factors for the decision to sideline Qatar, it is also a result of rivalry between the Saudis and Qatar. The former has thought of itself for long as the undisputed leader of the Islamic World, while off late Qatar by taking an independent foreign policy stance, while also differing on a number of foreign policy issues has sought to distinguish itself. Significantly, the Taliban had set up an office in Afghanistan, which was later shut down. Qatar has also sought to play a role in reconciliation taks between Taliban and Afghanistan. On June 14, 2017, Mutlaq al-Qahtani, a senior counterterrorism adviser to Qatar’s foreign minister said “Qatar hosted the Taliban reconciliation talks with the Afghan government on the request from the United States but now U.S. President Donald Trump along with a number of Arab regimes has accused Doha of supporting extremist groups,” Apart from this, Doha has also maintained a manageable relationship with Iran. What has been the role of major powers in this issue? All major powers are taking sides in accordance with their interests. The US, seems to be fueling tension in the region instead of diffusing it. On the very first day, the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson gave a statement on Monday while on a state visit in Australia, urging the Gulf states to stay united. However, Tillerson’s assurances came under doubt after Presidents Trump sided with Saudis, and lambasted Qatar for fomenting terror stating, “The time had come to call on Qatar to end it’s funding……and it’s extremist ideology”. Later, US President Donald Trump realised that Qatar hosts the biggest US military Base in the region, and spoke over telephone with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, expressing readiness to participate in the efforts to resolve the crisis in the GCC. More recently, the US not only finalised arm deal of worth 12 billion US dollars but also sent US Navy vessels to Doha to take part in a joint military exercise with the Qatari Emiri Navy. Turkey's parliament has approved a legislation allowing its troops to be deployed to a Turkish military base in Qatar. Though Russia has taken a neutral position from the start of the conflict, it sympathises with Qatar rather than with Saudi Arabia and its allies, because the investment authority of Qatar has made significant investments in different sectors, during difficult economic time. Sushma Swaraj categorically stated that, “There is no challenge arising out of this for us. This is an internal matter of GCC (Gulf Coordination Council). Our only concern is about Indians there. We are trying to find out if any Indians are stuck there. × Indian stake in Qatar More than 650,000 Indians are living in Qatar. Almost half of the Indians (3,00000) are from Kerala. Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan wrote to the central government and sought its intervention for ensuring the safety of these Indians.India’s Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj categorically stated that, “There is no challenge arising out of this for us. This is an internal matter of GCC (Gulf Coordination Council). Our only concern is about Indians there. We are trying to find out if any Indians are stuck there." It is estimated, that expats from Arab nations, send back remittance of well over 60 billion US dollars to India annually. A large number of these resident are in Qatar, on contract to work for the FIFA World Cup, to be hosted by the country in 2022. If one were to look beyond remittances and the diaspora factor, India has strong economic connections with Qatar in the economic sphere. They include: Energy Qatar has the world's third-largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran, and is the largest supplier of LNG to India, accounting for 66 per cent of the total imports in 2015-16. It is worth noting that last year India renegotiated the gas price formula and saved around 20000 crore rupees. Investment Qatar has a sovereign wealth fund of around 300 billion US dollars, which is managed by the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA). It has significant investments in India across the board such as Qatar Foundation Endowment picked up 5 per cent stake in Bharti Airtel with an investment of US$ 1.26 billion in July 2013. In July 2013, Qatar Investment Authority decided to invest US$300 million in India’s real estate sector. QIA invested US$ 150 million in India’s e-commerce major Flipkart. At the same time, Indian companies have invested US$ 100 million in different joint ventures across the different sectors. Qatar Airways and QIA are planning to invest in Airlines sector of India. India has been engaging with QIA and other state-owned and private entities in Qatar to draw investment for PM Modi’s flagship program ‘Make in India’. Trade According to the Indian embassy in Doha, “The bilateral trade had touched nearly US$17 billion in 2013-14, with India's exports amounting to nearly US$1.0 billion.” India mainly exports iron or steel, plastic & articles thereof, construction material, electrical and electronic items, textiles, chemicals, precious stones, rubber, spices and cereals to Qatar. Apart from it, Qatar hosts many Indian companies. There are a total of 26, 100 per cent Indian owned companies working in Qatar in various fields such as infrastructure, contracting, information technology, gold trade, and food items trade. Nearly 6,500 Qatari-Indian companies in joint venture partnerships are working practically in all fields in the country. Many Indian companies such as L&T, Dodsal, Punj Lloyd, Shapoorji Pallonji, Voltas, Tata motors, Simplex, TCS, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Aptech and NIIT have set up offices in Qatar and have secured major contracts/business. New Delhi needs to look at the isolation of Qatar as an opportunity in the long run, which it should seek to leverage for economic and strategic purposes. × Indian strategy New Delhi needs to take care of its national interests as other countries are doing. While in the short run, India could face significant economic challenges, with lay offs of sections of Indian workers being a significant possibility. Yet, New Delhi needs to think out of the box, and ensure that its relationship with Qatar is not viewed from the prism of Saudi Arabia and other countries. New Delhi needs to look at the isolation of Qatar as an opportunity in the long run, which it should seek to leverage for economic and strategic purposes. *Sandeep Sachdeva is an Independent Policy Analyst.

Deserted by neighbours, Qatar is still a big hope for India

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Tridivesh Singh Maini

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