Angela Merkel will continue as chancellor of Germany. But following an <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/politics">election</a> that saw the rise of <a href="http://www.focus.de/politik/praxistipps/erste-hochrechnungen-die-aktuelle-prognose-zum-ergebnis-der-bundestagswahl-2017_id_7631195.html">smaller parties</a> &ndash; most notably the far right &ndash; her fourth term will probably be an eventful one in ways, she would not wish for.

The Union parties (Merkel&rsquo;s CDU and sister party CSU) finished in top place with just under 33%. They did nevertheless lose almost 9% over their previous election result of 2013.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), coalition partner to the Union parties, finished a distant second, with just over 20% of the vote. For the SPD, this is a historic low: almost 6% down on the last election. Party leader Martin Schulz failed to come up to scratch in a lacklustre campaign.

Four smaller parties have managed to meet the 5% threshold to qualify for seats in parliament.

The right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved a dubious milestone in post-war German history. With a vote share of 12.5%, it will be the first overtly far-right nationalist party to enter the federal parliament.

The Left Party (die Linke) and the Green Party (B&uuml;ndnis &lsquo;90/die Gr&uuml;nen) made marginal gains to score 9% and just over 9% respectively. Big gains went to one party that had been more or less written off after the last election and to another that many commentators hoped never to see in parliament at the federal level. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) rose from the ashes to return to parliament under their charismatic new leader Christian Lindner. With 10.7% of the vote, the party more than doubled its tally of the last election.

Forming a government

The new government will need to control 316 seats in the parliament to achieve the majority needed to take office. While probably technically possible, a continuation of the current Grand Coalition (GroKo) between CDU/CSU and SPD now seems unlikely.

Having sent mixed messages before the election, the SPD declared after the close of polls that it aims to work as an <a href="http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl_2017/bundestagswahl-2017-im-live-ticker-wahlbeteiligung-bislang-schwaecher-als-2013_id_7631710.html">opposition</a> party in the new parliament.

With the AfD and die Linke ruled out of a CDU/CSU-based coalition on ideological grounds, this leaves the possibility of a so-called Jamaica coalition of CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens (the parties&rsquo; traditional colours of black, green and yellow tally with the Jamaican flag). However, this option is no foregone conclusion and could prove very unpopular with voters.

All roads lead to Merkel

Despite the consistency of the polls over the past few weeks, an unprecedented number of German voters &ndash; <a href="http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/bundestagswahl-2017-entscheidet-die-taktik-der-waehler-15212740.html">around 40%</a> &ndash; remained undecided as late as a week before the election.

The uncertainty was palpable in an unusually nervy, volatile mood among the electorate. <a href="https://www.pocketstory.com/der-spiegel/sicherheit-und-wut">Psychologist Stephan Gr&uuml;newald</a> noted odd swings in public perceptions of the Merkel government&rsquo;s achievements. One minute Germany was a &ldquo;desolate land&rdquo;, the next an &ldquo;island of prosperity&rdquo;.

Germans are well aware of their relative prosperity in Europe but seem to have been traumatised by the impact of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41147362">migrant crisis</a> within their borders. Anxiety runs high over international tensions and there is a fear that Germany&rsquo;s economic security is under threat. At one level, people could hardly be bothered about the election. Even so, social media posts exploded with rage and Merkel&rsquo;s car was <a href="http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/merkels-wagen-mit-tomaten-beworfen-15190057.html">pelted with tomatoes</a> at appearances in the east &ndash; her home territory.

The voters sensed that a change was overdue but calculated that in practice all votes &ndash; other than for the radical outliers of the Left Party and AfD &ndash; would trickle back to Merkel. Ironically, the opposition parties fed the perception that there was no alternative to Merkel.

Before election day, all of the remaining mainstream parties &ndash; SPD, Greens and FDP &ndash; had seemed open to the idea of joining a coalition. With the Union parties bossing the polls at around 36% and the SPD well behind at around 22%, it was clear that any continuation of the GroKo would be led by Merkel, not Schulz.

Even after three terms in office and after testing the forbearance of the German public with her open doors asylum policy, 56% claimed in polling that they would rather see her <a href="http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer/">remain chancellor</a> while only 32% favoured Schulz. With neither the mainstream parties nor the voters daring to rock the boat, Merkel barely needed to campaign.

But now she faces another set of challenges before she can forge a new government. Before the election, it was thought that the higher the vote for the AfD, the greater the likelihood that the vote of the other smaller parties would be squeezed, making a continuation of the crumbling CDU/CSU-SPD partnership unavoidable. Instead, it was the vote of the two main parties that was squeezed, apparently convincing the SPD that there was no future for it in a Merkel-led GroKo. Now Merkel must try to make a pact with two parties that will stretch the comfort zone of an already broad Union church.

<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84578/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" />Also, the higher the vote for the AfD, the greater the pressure that the CSU, the CDU&rsquo;s more conservative and reactionary Bavarian sister party, can exert on the content of the government&rsquo;s coalition agreement and on future policy direction. Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, had already announced his intention of driving the Union parties further to the right in the post-election coalition negotiations. The strident entry of the AfD into parliament will help him to justify his demands, including a more <a href="https://theconversation.com/angela-merkels-election-manifesto-attempts-to-rebrand-refugees-80447">rigorous immigration control policy</a>. With the CSU suffering a historic low of 38.5% &ndash; a drop of almost <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/csu-stuerzt-in-bayern-auf-niedrigstes-ergebnis-seit-1949-a-1169590.html">11% of the vote</a> &ndash; in its Bavarian constituency, it will be sure to press even harder for conservative reforms.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/angela-merkel-wins-a-fourth-term-in-office-but-it-wont-be-an-easy-one-84578">original article</a>.

&nbsp;

Angela Merkel maintains her pre-eminence and leads to the challenging fourth term

Angela Merkel will continue as chancellor of Germany. But following an election that saw the rise of smaller parties – most notably the far right – her fourth term will probably be an eventful one in ways, she would not wish for. The Union parties (Merkel’s CDU and sister party CSU) finished in top place with just under 33%. They did nevertheless lose almost 9% over their previous election result of 2013. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), coalition partner to the Union parties, finished a distant second, with just over 20% of the vote. For the SPD, this is a historic low: almost 6% down on the last election. Party leader Martin Schulz failed to come up to scratch in a lacklustre campaign. Four smaller parties have managed to meet the 5% threshold to qualify for seats in parliament. The right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved a dubious milestone in post-war German history. With a vote share of 12.5%, it will be the first overtly far-right nationalist party to enter the federal parliament. The Left Party (die Linke) and the Green Party (Bündnis ‘90/die Grünen) made marginal gains to score 9% and just over 9% respectively. Big gains went to one party that had been more or less written off after the last election and to another that many commentators hoped never to see in parliament at the federal level. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) rose from the ashes to return to parliament under their charismatic new leader Christian Lindner. With 10.7% of the vote, the party more than doubled its tally of the last election. Forming a government The new government will need to control 316 seats in the parliament to achieve the majority needed to take office. While probably technically possible, a continuation of the current Grand Coalition (GroKo) between CDU/CSU and SPD now seems unlikely. Having sent mixed messages before the election, the SPD declared after the close of polls that it aims to work as an opposition party in the new parliament. With the AfD and die Linke ruled out of a CDU/CSU-based coalition on ideological grounds, this leaves the possibility of a so-called Jamaica coalition of CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens (the parties’ traditional colours of black, green and yellow tally with the Jamaican flag). However, this option is no foregone conclusion and could prove very unpopular with voters. All roads lead to Merkel Despite the consistency of the polls over the past few weeks, an unprecedented number of German voters – around 40% – remained undecided as late as a week before the election. The uncertainty was palpable in an unusually nervy, volatile mood among the electorate. Psychologist Stephan Grünewald noted odd swings in public perceptions of the Merkel government’s achievements. One minute Germany was a “desolate land”, the next an “island of prosperity”. Germans are well aware of their relative prosperity in Europe but seem to have been traumatised by the impact of the migrant crisis within their borders. Anxiety runs high over international tensions and there is a fear that Germany’s economic security is under threat. At one level, people could hardly be bothered about the election. Even so, social media posts exploded with rage and Merkel’s car was pelted with tomatoes at appearances in the east – her home territory. The voters sensed that a change was overdue but calculated that in practice all votes – other than for the radical outliers of the Left Party and AfD – would trickle back to Merkel. Ironically, the opposition parties fed the perception that there was no alternative to Merkel. Before election day, all of the remaining mainstream parties – SPD, Greens and FDP – had seemed open to the idea of joining a coalition. With the Union parties bossing the polls at around 36% and the SPD well behind at around 22%, it was clear that any continuation of the GroKo would be led by Merkel, not Schulz. Even after three terms in office and after testing the forbearance of the German public with her open doors asylum policy, 56% claimed in polling that they would rather see her remain chancellor while only 32% favoured Schulz. With neither the mainstream parties nor the voters daring to rock the boat, Merkel barely needed to campaign. But now she faces another set of challenges before she can forge a new government. Before the election, it was thought that the higher the vote for the AfD, the greater the likelihood that the vote of the other smaller parties would be squeezed, making a continuation of the crumbling CDU/CSU-SPD partnership unavoidable. Instead, it was the vote of the two main parties that was squeezed, apparently convincing the SPD that there was no future for it in a Merkel-led GroKo. Now Merkel must try to make a pact with two parties that will stretch the comfort zone of an already broad Union church. Also, the higher the vote for the AfD, the greater the pressure that the CSU, the CDU’s more conservative and reactionary Bavarian sister party, can exert on the content of the government’s coalition agreement and on future policy direction. Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, had already announced his intention of driving the Union parties further to the right in the post-election coalition negotiations. The strident entry of the AfD into parliament will help him to justify his demands, including a more rigorous immigration control policy. With the CSU suffering a historic low of 38.5% – a drop of almost 11% of the vote – in its Bavarian constituency, it will be sure to press even harder for conservative reforms. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Angela Merkel wins a fourth term in office ? but it won't be an easy one

When Angela Merkel first became Chancellor of Germany in 2005, she was a virtual unknown. Critics were sceptical about her staying power. There were confident predictions that she wouldn&rsquo;t see out the 100-day honeymoon period traditionally enjoyed by a new incumbent. Now, 12 years on, Merkel is undoubtedly the most powerful woman in the world and a symbol of continuity both at home and abroad. Yet remarkably little is known about her, what drives her and what explains her extraordinary resilience. So who is Angela Merkel and what explains her dominance of Germany&rsquo;s millennial years?

Within her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merkel&rsquo;s rise to political prominence was aided by two factors: she was both fiercely competent and inconspicuous. She was underestimated, even patronised, by party colleagues. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/16/helmut-kohl-ex-chancellor-and-architect-of-german-reunification-dies-aged-87">Helmut Kohl</a>, the long-serving CDU prime minister who presided over German unification, referred to her as &ldquo;the girl&rdquo; (das M&auml;dchen). He never seriously rated her as a challenge for his role.

<figure class="align-center ">
<figcaption>
When Kohl became embroiled in a <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/the-scandal-that-rocked-the-government-of-helmut-kohl/a-5137950" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">party funding scandal</a> it was Merkel who represented the new face of the CDU, free of the taint of past party sleaze. Kohl apparently <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/angela-merkel/11920552/10-moments-that-define-German-chancellor-Angela-Merkel.html" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">never forgave her</a> for usurping him.
</figcaption>
</figure>

The appeal of the ordinary

Even after three terms in office and after testing the forbearance of the German public with her open doors asylum policy, Merkel remains extraordinarily popular with the German public. Significantly, <a href="https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-895.html">her popularity extends across all parties</a>.

Part of her enduring appeal lies in her unobtrusiveness. For a politician, she is, well, rather ordinary. Merkel has never felt the need to validate herself through a polished public image. She famously wears <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/shortcuts/2012/oct/09/angela-merkel-jacket-pantone">the same jacket in a dizzying array of colours</a>, because it&rsquo;s easier than selecting new styles for every public appearance. Her groundedness and indifference to the trappings of the political high life have earned widespread respect.

Although entitled to live in a fine official residence at the Brandenburg Gate, she prefers to stay in a small flat she shares with her husband. When she has time, she cooks her own food. A keen football fan, the photos of her and president Joachim Gauck celebrating in the German national squad&rsquo;s dressing room after their <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/pictures/10965966/Angela-Merkels-World-Cup-German-Chancellor-joins-in-the-celebrations.html">2014 World Cup</a> win look natural and convincing.

In her understated way, Merkel conveys an image of a woman who can&rsquo;t be bought; who somehow remains outside the privileged elite. Both endearing and slightly demeaning, her nickname of &ldquo;Mutti&rdquo; (Mum) combines common responses to this eastern-born outsider and cements a sense of trustworthiness that serves her well with the voters.

Patience and pragmatism

A large part of Merkel&rsquo;s success lies in her consummate mastery of the German political system. Quite simply, she has what it takes to win in German politics. She is cautious, pragmatic, strategic, patient, and is imbued with the traditional Christian Democratic certainty that the integration of interests provides a sound basis for governance. She is an outstanding mediator. At times these attributes have infuriated supporters and critics alike, but they have worked for her.

Merkel has a keen instinct for shifts in public opinion and is swift to occupy new ground. This maddens the opposition SPD, which often complains that the union parties are &ldquo;stealing their clothes&rdquo;, making it difficult for them to develop a distinctive policy platform.

Just before the dissolution of parliament ahead of the 2017 election, Merkel engineered the passage of a <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/angela-merkel-ja-zur-ehe-fuer-alle-nicht-aus-ueberzeugung-a-1155042.html">popular bill</a> legalising gay marriage. Although it went against majority opinion within her own party, she didn&rsquo;t want the SPD or the Green Party to be able to capitalise on the issue in the election campaign.

Merkel is frequently criticised for &ldquo;de-politicising&rdquo; government. She tends to a technocratic, pragmatic approach and often sits on the fence. After three terms in office, there are concerns that this &ldquo;Merkel model&rdquo; of governance is smothering the vigorous plural exchanges that ought to characterise democratic interaction between the mainstream parties.

In particular, critics fear that Merkel&rsquo;s current grand coalition (where government power is shared between the leading party and the main party of opposition) is driving out the democratic principle of alternation of government (where there is a real potential for elections to replace one government party with another). With no mainstream opposition to the existing government, voters are drawn to cast a protest vote for radical parties, such as right-wing populists AfD. Moreover, this middle-of-the-road approach blocks reform of outdated policies.

While these are valid arguments, Merkel&rsquo;s depoliticised approach is, in fact, a logical strategy for sustained leadership in the German political system. In order to pass major domestic legislation in Germany, a government has to get a bill passed not only the parliament, in which it has a majority, but also the second legislature, the Bundesrat, where the federal government majority is not replicated. In practice, every government has to &ldquo;collude&rdquo; with opposition forces on a routine basis if it is to be successful.

The &ldquo;boring&rdquo; election campaigns so common in German politics are also a function of the system. Until the votes have been cast and the parliamentary arithmetic is known, neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD can know for sure how it might work with the other parties in parliament to forge a majority coalition government. The election is only the beginning. Many of the details of the new chancellor&rsquo;s programme will not be settled until the rounds of coalition negotiations that take place immediately afterwards. It makes sense, then, for the two main parties to avoid specifics on their policy platforms. Keeping their powder dry, though, can make the public feel that their main concerns are not being adequately addressed.

Recently, media reports have highlighted unprecedented levels of rage and polarisation in post-war German opinion. The anti-immigrant Pegida movement and the populist <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37274201">Alternative for Germany</a> (AfD) have voiced views that only a few years ago would have been considered completely unacceptable in public discourse. This has carried over into society, where public opinion is hardening against asylum seekers.

<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84442/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" />Some argue that this new German anger can&rsquo;t be dismissed simply as a protest vote for the AfD, but may indicate a more profound disaffection with the Merkel model. But a quick glance at the world outside and the alternative leadership at home seems to have persuaded most voters that this is not the time to throw their toys out of the pram. The Merkel decade has quietly transformed Germany into a world power while protecting the economy from the worst of the fallout from the eurozone crisis. Throughout the postwar period, German voters have shown a strong inclination for predictability: for &ldquo;the devil they know&rdquo;. Perhaps this more than anything else will secure one more term for Merkel.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" nofollow="" rel="">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-angela-merkel-model-or-how-to-succeed-in-german-politics-84442" nofollow="" rel="">original article</a>.

Angela Merkel looks set to continue her magnificent political journey

When Angela Merkel first became Chancellor of Germany in 2005, she was a virtual unknown. Critics were sceptical about her staying power. There were confident predictions that she wouldn’t see out the 100-day honeymoon period traditionally enjoyed by a new incumbent. Now, 12 years on, Merkel is undoubtedly the most powerful woman in the world and a symbol of continuity both at home and abroad. Yet remarkably little is known about her, what drives her and what explains her extraordinary resilience. So who is Angela Merkel and what explains her dominance of Germany’s millennial years? Within her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merkel’s rise to political prominence was aided by two factors: she was both fiercely competent and inconspicuous. She was underestimated, even patronised, by party colleagues. Helmut Kohl, the long-serving CDU prime minister who presided over German unification, referred to her as “the girl” (das Mädchen). He never seriously rated her as a challenge for his role. When Kohl became embroiled in a party funding scandal it was Merkel who represented the new face of the CDU, free of the taint of past party sleaze. Kohl apparently never forgave her for usurping him. The appeal of the ordinary Even after three terms in office and after testing the forbearance of the German public with her open doors asylum policy, Merkel remains extraordinarily popular with the German public. Significantly, her popularity extends across all parties. Part of her enduring appeal lies in her unobtrusiveness. For a politician, she is, well, rather ordinary. Merkel has never felt the need to validate herself through a polished public image. She famously wears the same jacket in a dizzying array of colours, because it’s easier than selecting new styles for every public appearance. Her groundedness and indifference to the trappings of the political high life have earned widespread respect. Although entitled to live in a fine official residence at the Brandenburg Gate, she prefers to stay in a small flat she shares with her husband. When she has time, she cooks her own food. A keen football fan, the photos of her and president Joachim Gauck celebrating in the German national squad’s dressing room after their 2014 World Cup win look natural and convincing. In her understated way, Merkel conveys an image of a woman who can’t be bought; who somehow remains outside the privileged elite. Both endearing and slightly demeaning, her nickname of “Mutti” (Mum) combines common responses to this eastern-born outsider and cements a sense of trustworthiness that serves her well with the voters. Patience and pragmatism A large part of Merkel’s success lies in her consummate mastery of the German political system. Quite simply, she has what it takes to win in German politics. She is cautious, pragmatic, strategic, patient, and is imbued with the traditional Christian Democratic certainty that the integration of interests provides a sound basis for governance. She is an outstanding mediator. At times these attributes have infuriated supporters and critics alike, but they have worked for her. Merkel has a keen instinct for shifts in public opinion and is swift to occupy new ground. This maddens the opposition SPD, which often complains that the union parties are “stealing their clothes”, making it difficult for them to develop a distinctive policy platform. Just before the dissolution of parliament ahead of the 2017 election, Merkel engineered the passage of a popular bill legalising gay marriage. Although it went against majority opinion within her own party, she didn’t want the SPD or the Green Party to be able to capitalise on the issue in the election campaign. Merkel is frequently criticised for “de-politicising” government. She tends to a technocratic, pragmatic approach and often sits on the fence. After three terms in office, there are concerns that this “Merkel model” of governance is smothering the vigorous plural exchanges that ought to characterise democratic interaction between the mainstream parties. In particular, critics fear that Merkel’s current grand coalition (where government power is shared between the leading party and the main party of opposition) is driving out the democratic principle of alternation of government (where there is a real potential for elections to replace one government party with another). With no mainstream opposition to the existing government, voters are drawn to cast a protest vote for radical parties, such as right-wing populists AfD. Moreover, this middle-of-the-road approach blocks reform of outdated policies. While these are valid arguments, Merkel’s depoliticised approach is, in fact, a logical strategy for sustained leadership in the German political system. In order to pass major domestic legislation in Germany, a government has to get a bill passed not only the parliament, in which it has a majority, but also the second legislature, the Bundesrat, where the federal government majority is not replicated. In practice, every government has to “collude” with opposition forces on a routine basis if it is to be successful. The “boring” election campaigns so common in German politics are also a function of the system. Until the votes have been cast and the parliamentary arithmetic is known, neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD can know for sure how it might work with the other parties in parliament to forge a majority coalition government. The election is only the beginning. Many of the details of the new chancellor’s programme will not be settled until the rounds of coalition negotiations that take place immediately afterwards. It makes sense, then, for the two main parties to avoid specifics on their policy platforms. Keeping their powder dry, though, can make the public feel that their main concerns are not being adequately addressed. Recently, media reports have highlighted unprecedented levels of rage and polarisation in post-war German opinion. The anti-immigrant Pegida movement and the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) have voiced views that only a few years ago would have been considered completely unacceptable in public discourse. This has carried over into society, where public opinion is hardening against asylum seekers. Some argue that this new German anger can’t be dismissed simply as a protest vote for the AfD, but may indicate a more profound disaffection with the Merkel model. But a quick glance at the world outside and the alternative leadership at home seems to have persuaded most voters that this is not the time to throw their toys out of the pram. The Merkel decade has quietly transformed Germany into a world power while protecting the economy from the worst of the fallout from the eurozone crisis. Throughout the postwar period, German voters have shown a strong inclination for predictability: for “the devil they know”. Perhaps this more than anything else will secure one more term for Merkel. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

The Angela Merkel model ? or how to succeed in German politics

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Zee News Rajasthan

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Patricia Hogwood

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