Wisconsin governor race a toss-up as Democrat Crowley narrowly leads Trump-backed Tiffany

Two weeks before Election Day, the race to succeed Governor Tony Evers is a toss-up in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has been a swing state for generations, flipping back and forth. Evers won four years ago by three and a half points, and the Marquette Law School poll's director says history points to another close race.

The nominees are Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany. 39-year-old Crowley is the Milwaukee County executive and a former state legislator who says he was evicted three times as a child. Tiffany is a former state lawmaker who has represented a mostly rural northern Wisconsin district in Congress since 2020. He survived a small plane crash while campaigning, and also distanced himself from President Trump.

Both are running statewide for the first time. If Crowley wins, he would be Wisconsin's first Black governor. Reports suggest Democrats are optimistic about this race as Trump's approval ratings are at record lows.

The polls give Crowley a narrow edge. September's Marquette poll had him at 49% to 46% among likely voters, and 46% to 45% among registered voters. A YouGov survey released last week had him ahead 46% to 42%, with 9% unsure. That survey sampled adults rather than likely voters. A lead of that size is within the usual margin of error.

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Campaign agenda

Crowley is running on affordability and public schools, and he is tying Tiffany to Donald Trump and to wealthy donors. Allies argue he must keep reminding voters of those ties amid anger over gas prices, the Iran war and inflation. Barack Obama endorsed him on October 8, and Kamala Harris is due to campaign with him on October 26.

Tiffany has attacked Crowley on crime and illegal immigration. He also has a spending advantage. Crowley's critics have focused on a county jail tablet program that some inmates used to harass victims and witnesses. Crowley suspended its messaging features last week.

Tiffany's campaign has also branded Crowley "data centre David Crowley." Crowley says those remarks were taken out of context. Tiffany argues his opponent is struggling to be heard, and says his own side has momentum.

Crowley has his own challenges. He won the primary after leaving the race and re-entering ten days later. He beat a democratic socialist rival by fewer than 4,000 votes, and she says he should show her supporters that he shares their values.

The race may turn on independents and on turnout in Democratic Milwaukee and Dane counties relative to the Republican countryside. One poll found Crowley leading Tiffany among independents 42% to 30%, though many remain undecided.