US midterms 2026: Trump's approval rating hits record low as Democrats gain ground

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low in a new national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena University, just weeks before the midterm elections. Widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and rising gasoline prices has weakened his standing among voters. Only 36 per cent of likely voters said they approved of Trump’s performance as president, while 59 per cent disapproved. The result marks his lowest approval rating in any Times/Siena poll. Disapproval was particularly strong among independent voters, with more than two-thirds expressing dissatisfaction with his presidency.

Democratic candidates have also strengthened their position in the congressional elections. Likely voters now favour Democrats over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts, representing a slight improvement for Democrats since the previous month. The congressional preference measure is widely considered an important indicator of political momentum ahead of the midterms.

Economic concerns weigh on Republicans

The political landscape presents significant challenges for Republicans as voters express growing frustration with economic conditions under the Trump administration. Three-quarters of Americans described the economy as fair or poor, while a majority blamed the president for the deterioration in their financial circumstances. The survey found that 69 per cent of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 65 per cent disapproved of his approach to the war in Iran. Nearly three-quarters also disapproved of his handling of gasoline prices, which have climbed above $4 a gallon.

Despite the unfavorable national outlook, Democrats face considerable obstacles in their efforts to regain control of the Senate. Their strategy involves winning competitive races in Republican-leaning states such as Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, all of which Trump carried by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election. Other surveys indicate that several key Senate contests remain closely contested.

Democrats make gains among key voter groups

Growing economic dissatisfaction appears to be weakening some of the support that helped Trump secure a second term. Over the past year, Democrats have improved their standing among men, younger voters and Hispanic voters, recovering support from groups that contributed to Trump's victory two years ago. Paul Gettings, a Republican who lost his job managing a logistics company in June, said he voted for Trump in 2024 but intends to support Democratic candidates in the midterms. He pointed to rising gasoline prices, the war in Iran and what he considers aggressive immigration enforcement in Simi Valley, California, where he lives.

“I’m very disillusioned with the Republican Party and how they can continue to support Trump,” said Gettings, 62, who is unemployed. “He’s turned into a politician just like the rest of them and it’s a lot of empty promises.” Trump’s approval rating was even lower among all registered voters, including those less likely to participate in the elections. In that group, just 34 percent approved of his job performance.

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Public perception of Democrats improves

As opinions of Republicans have deteriorated, perceptions of the Democratic Party have improved across several measures over the past two years. A majority of likely voters now identify Democrats as the party representing the working class, reversing the advantage Republicans held in 2022. Voters also consider Democrats more likely to keep their promises, marking another shift from two years ago, when Republicans led on that measure.

Across nearly every demographic group, majorities now view Democrats as more understanding of ordinary Americans and better equipped to address their concerns. Vince Cordero, 25, an independent voter from Oak Lawn, Illinois, said he plans to vote for Democrats this year. He expressed concerns about prejudice toward Hispanic Americans and criticized the Republican Party's approach.

“The Republican Party is, if anything, causing more problems for people like me: being Latino, feeling the weight of that kind of prejudice that I think the Republican Party tends to kind of portray," said Vince Cordero, 25, an independent in Oak Lawn, Ill., who said he plans on voting for Democrats this year. “I also think the Democratic Party deserves an opportunity to see if they’re really up to snuff.”

Democrats lead on cost of living and the economy

The survey found that Democrats hold a 15-percentage-point advantage over Republicans in voter trust on the cost of living, currently the most important issue for voters. Democrats also lead Republicans by eight points on the economy, an area that has traditionally been a political strength for Trump. Their advantage has grown since September on questions involving foreign conflicts and artificial intelligence.

However, Trump continues to enjoy substantial support among his core Republican base. Approximately 82 per cent of Republicans said they approved of his presidential performance and signature policies, including the war in Iran and tariffs. Sheila Murdock, a retired nurse from Shelley, Idaho, who has already cast an absentee ballot for Republicans this year, defended the administration's trade policies despite concerns about higher prices. “People are upset, ‘Oh, Trump put these tariffs on people and now our food costs go up,’” said Sheila Murdock, a retired nurse from Shelley, Idaho, who has already voted absentee for Republicans this year. “Well, yes, but if you look at the bigger picture and what it eventually does, it makes things better.”

Immigration returns as a major election issue

Immigration is once again becoming a significant concern for voters as the midterm elections approach. The percentage of voters identifying immigration as their top issue increased to 10 per cent, up from 6 per cent in September. The shift is particularly evident among Republicans. Nearly one in five Republican voters now identify immigration as their leading priority, almost twice the proportion recorded the previous month. Democrats continue to hold an advantage over Republicans on voter trust regarding immigration, an issue that has historically favoured the GOP. However, that lead has narrowed since September. The poll found that 46 per cent of voters trust Republicans to handle immigration, while 50 percent expressed greater confidence in Democrats.

Voters remain dissatisfied with both parties

Despite Democrats' improved electoral position, the survey highlights continuing dissatisfaction with their party. Only 28 percent of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party, eight percentage points below the share expressing satisfaction with Republicans. Much of the discontent within the Democratic Party comes from its own supporters. The poll found that 43 per cent of Democratic voters were dissatisfied with their party, compared with just 16 percent of Republicans who expressed similar dissatisfaction with the GOP.