Record-breaking Beryl hints at active hurricane season, new forecast predicts

In the wake of Hurricane Beryl's devastation in Texas, Colorado State University scientists upped their prediction for an already active Atlantic hurricane season.

The Department of Atmospheric Science has added two storms and a major hurricane to its outlook for the 2024 season.

Citing unusually warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters, along with weaker-than-usual wind shear that hinders hurricane formation, Colorado State University adjusted their forecast slightly upwards.

"An immensely warm sea surface temperature provides a favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification," the department said in an online post.

The department also described Hurricane Beryl as "a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season."

Notably, hurricane Beryl started as a record-breaking Category 5 storm in the Caribbean and Mexico, before weakening to a Category 1 when it hit Texas.

However the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be more active than it has been predicted. Including Beryl, along with short-lived storms Alberto and Chris, forecasters have increased the expected number of named storms from 23 to 25 this year.

Storm Chris made landfall near Veracruz, Mexico, shortly after reaching tropical-storm strength on June 30, while Alberto affected parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mexico in mid of June.

University’s Department of Atmospheric Science has a new forecast that includes 12 hurricanes, up from the initial estimate of 11. These are projected to reach Category 3 or higher status to qualify as major systems.

Having strong confidence in their projections, the department predicts a significantly higher likelihood of major hurricanes impacting the continental US and Caribbean coasts.

But with more than one-sixth of the storm season finished, the projection of a US landfall has dipped slightly, from 62% when the outlook was first released in April to 57%.

The landfall projection for the US coastline that includes parts of Florida south and east of Cedar Key is now at 31%, down from the earlier 34%. Since 1880, the yearly average is 21%.

The forecast for major hurricane landfall in the US has shifted slightly. While there's a decreased chance for the region south of Cedar Key (now at 31%, down from 34%) the overall risk for major hurricane landfalls along the US and Caribbean coasts remains significantly higher than usual.

(With inputs from agencies)