Is a new Covid pandemic emerging or is it an endemic now? Experts answer

COVID-19 is expected to transition to an endemic disease in 2022 and beyond. As the Delta variant surge eases in many regions around the world, scientists have begun charting the virus's transition from a pandemic to an endemic.

According to scientists, the first countries to emerge from the pandemic will likely have combined high vaccination rates with natural immunity among those who had previously contracted Coronavirus.

They predict that countries like the United States, the UK, Portugal, and India will be the first to recover from the pandemic.

However, researchers warn that SARS-CoV-2 is an unpredictable virus that is constantly evolving as it spreads among unvaccinated populations. The possibility of the virus mutating to such an extent that it surpasses hard-won immunity has not been completely ruled out, and there is still the risk of a "doomsday scenario".

They have, however, expressed increasing confidence that many countries will have put the worst of the pandemic behind them in the coming year.

"We think between now and theendof 2022, this is the point where we get control over this virus...where we can significantly reduce severe disease and death," Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist leading the World Health Organization's (WHO)COVID-19response.

The agency's assessment is based on the work of disease experts who are determining the likely course of the pandemic over the next 18 months.The WHO aims to have 70% of the world's population vaccinated by the end of 2022.

"If we reach that target, we will be in a very, very different situation epidemiologically," says Van Kerkhove.

Meanwhile, she expressed concern over countries lifting COVID precautions prematurely. "It's amazing to me to be seeing, you know, people out on the streets, as if everything is over."

"Endemic does not mean benign," she added.

The WHO reported on Oct. 26 that COVID-19 cases and deaths are declining in nearly every region of the world since August.

A notable exception is Europe, where the Delta variant has caused havoc in countries like Russia and Romania with low vaccination rates as well as places that have liberalized mask requirements.

In addition, the variant continues to contribute to the rising number of infections in countries such as Singapore and China, which have high vaccination rates but little natural immunity because of much stricter lockdown measures.

However, it appears that vaccines are keeping people from hospitalisation, even in countries like the UK where cases are on the rise following the lifting of pandemic restrictions.

As with other endemic diseases such as malaria, COVID-19 is expected to continue contributing to illness and death for many years to come.

Experts predict that the virus will eventually behave like measles, which still causes outbreaks in areas with low vaccination rates.

Some see COVID-19 as behaving more like a seasonal respiratory infection like influenza. Others believe it could become a less-lethal virus, affecting mostly children, but that could take decades.

Trevor Bedford, a computational virologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center who has been tracking the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, sees a milder winter wave in the United States followed by a transition toendemic disease in 2022-2023. He is projecting 50,000 to 100,000 U.S.COVID-19deaths a year, on top of an estimated 30,000 annual deaths from flu.

The virus will likely continue to mutate, requiring annual booster shots tailored to the latest circulating variants, Bedford said.

Watch |New locally-transmitted COVID-19 cases spike to three-month high in China

Richard Hatchett, the CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, says that the world remains vulnerable since some countries have good vaccine programs and others have almost none.

"What keeps me up at night aboutCOVIDis the concern that we could have a variant emerge that evades our vaccines and evades immunity from prior infection,” Hatchett said.

“That would be like anewCOVIDpandemicemerging even while we're still in the old one."