Explained: Will Nikki Haley win? The ground realities for the Indian-origin candidate as of now

With South Carolina former Governor Nikki Haley's announcement that she is in the run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, the discussion around who will win in the race has deepened further. She is the second person to have announced her candidature after former President Donald Trump confirmed his bid for the nomination. Her announcement has also triggered uncertainty in the Republican Party, as reports suggest that top leaders are mulling over how they can challenge the politically wounded but still resilient Trump.

Former Governor Larry Hogan, who had earlier stated that he was “actively and seriously considering” running, had talked about the “non-Trump lane”. “There’s a non-Trump lane right now that’s as wide as the Trump lane, and there’s no one in that lane,” Hogan had stated in an interview. With speculations around Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also joining the run for nomination, the question arises will Nikki Haley clinch victory or will she become a catalyst for Trump's win?

The announcement

On February 14, Nikki Haley stated that she is running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination against her former boss Donald Trump inthe Republican nomination race.

“It’s time for a new generation of leadership,” said Haley in a video shared by her team. Born to Indian migrants in Bamberg, South Carolina, Haley was earlier named Nimrata Nikki Randhawa. Her parents were from Punjab, India, and were teachers by profession. She grew up as a Sikh but converted to Christianity after she married Michael Haley in 1996.

Speaking about her background, Haley said, “I am the proud daughter of Indian immigrants. They came to America and settled in a small Southern town. My father wore a turban. My mother wore a sari. I was a brown girl in a black and white world. We faced discrimination and hardships, but my parents never gave in to grievance and hate.”

Shift in politics

A clear theme of Haley's presidential election campaign is unity, as in her announcement video the leader was seen emphasising on bringing people together.Haley recalled how she led South Carolina through the tragedy as a governor when nine Black parishioners were killed by a white supremacist at the Mother Emmanuel AME Church in 2015.

"We turned away from fear towards God and the values that still make our country the freest and greatest in the world," she stated. It is felt Haley feels that the issue of race and call for unity may work in her favour, but experts believe itotherwise.

AAPI Victory Alliance's Varun Nikore believes that Haley failed to represent the community. Nikore added, “There’s a multitude of issues where she specifically and the Republican Party are diametrically opposed to where AAPIs are.”The data also fails to show a bright future for Haley.

As per the Asian American voter survey carried out in 2022, only 15 per cent of Indian American voters support Republicans. Meanwhile, 56 per cent are in favour of Democrats, and 19 per cent go for independent. With such an evident ratio of Indian Americans supporting Democrats, it is difficult to understand which is Haley's target community.

WATCH | Indian-American Nikki Haley kicks-off U.S. Presidential Campaign for 2024

The falling number in polls

If the polls are to be considered, there is a tough road ahead for Haley. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 4 per cent of registered Republicans were in support of Haley taking over as president.

Meanwhile, Trump gained votes of 43 per cent of the registered Republicans, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 31 per cent. The polls were conducted from February 6 to 13. Other polls conducted recently also found Trump leading the race. As per The Bulwark survey, 28 per cent of Republican party votes were ready to support Trump.

Few surveys also said that Haley would play spoiler. According to the Yahoo News/YouGov poll, Florida governor DeSantis was leading Trump by 45 per cent to 41 per cent. “In a hypothetical three-way match-up, Haley effectively plays the spoiler, attracting 11 per cent of Republicans and Republican-leaners while DeSantis’s support falls by roughly the same amount (to 35 per cent), leaving Trump with more votes than either of themat 38%,” Yahoo News stated.

Haley's wavering stance

For many, Haley, as a leader, is someone who has been wavering in her stand on issues. She is known to have shared a hot-and-cold relationship with her boss.

Once a high critic of Trump, she later became his ambassador to the UN only to leave the Trump administration in 2018 and again heavily criticise the leader. However, in 2022, Haley seemed to have amended her relationship with Trump. She had also claimed that she won't run for the presidential election if Trump announces his candidacy, a decision she again wavered on.

Hampton Falls' Nancy Parker also said that it will take some convincing."I think Nikki Haley has a lot of potential but I just want to see for myself what she has to say. She has a reputation of being a bit of a flip-flopper. She's changed her mind on many important items over the last two years, but I'm still willing to come and listen to her,” Parker added.

With Haley heading to Iowa next week for a few campaign stops, it will be interesting to see the kind of response she receives from the people.

(With inputs from agencies)

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