Decoding long-term implications of Iranian foreign minister's audio leak

In Iran, a leaked audio recording has become a national crisis.The audio clip is of Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.It portrays Iran's diplomacy as being compromised by the country's military.

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In a clarification, Zarif has rejected any differences between the army and the bureaucracy.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani has backed the foreign minister, calling the leak a conspiracy against the Islamic Republic.

This report explores if this controversy will impact Iran's upcoming presidential election.

In the leaked audio clip, Zarif is criticising Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

"I can dare to say that I have sacrificed diplomacy for the battlefield more than the price that (those on) the battlefield (led by Soleimani) paid and sacrificed for diplomacy," Zarif said in the audio.

These remarks were never intended to be broadcast, but they were leaked on Sunday by an alleged pro-Saudi outlet.

It has been 48 hours and the controversy has only snowballed.

The global media can't stop discussing it, with Zarif being forced to issue a clarification.

In an Instagram post on Wednesday, Zarif included a video of himself at the memorial of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

The caption read: "I deeply regret how a secret theoretical debate about the need to increase diplomacy in the military turned into an internal conflict... Reducing the theoretical debate on the relationship between the two wings of the Islamic Republic as an excuse for dichotomy between the glorious military and zealous diplomats is short-sighted".

As the foreign minister expressed regret, the president was quick to extend his support.

Rouhani said the only aim of the leak was to create discord in the Islamic Republic.

"(It was published) just when Vienna was on the road to success, to create conflicts in the country. How can we succeed? How can we lift the sanctions? With solidarity, with unity. With divisions and arguments, we can't lift the sanctions," Rouhani said.

"These people are against Iran, against the people, against the interests of Iran," he said.

Tehran is going to probe what it calls a "conspiracy" and Rouhani has ordered investigators to identify who leaked the stolen three-hour recording because the language used in the audio is rarely heard of in Iranian politics.

It portrays Iranian diplomacy as consistently taking a back seat to the interests of the military, something Tehran vehemently denies.

"The president (Hassan Rouhani) has ordered the intelligence ministry to identify the agents of this conspiracy. We believe this theft of documents is a conspiracy against the government, the system, the integrity of effective domestic institutions and also against our national interests," Ali Rabiei, the Iran government's spokesman, said.

The leak and the probe also come at a crucial time when Iran is headed for a presidential election in June.

Rouhani will step down after completing the two terms allowed in the constitution.

But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei remains in charge, so the election will be more like a selection.

The popular choice for a successor is brigadier Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

If we take into account the revelations made by Zarif on the divisions between the army and diplomats, a military man in charge of Iran's executive branch could only make things worse in the future.