Can Donald Trump win the Nobel prize- What do the bookmakers predict?

President Donald Trump has recently put in an effort to broker cease fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. Both the nation accepted his mediation and agreed to a ceasefire. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had earlier formally nominated the US President Donald Trump, praising his role in global diplomacy and brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Now, a number of people are running online and betting on Trump's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. On June 21, Pakistan publicly nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, citing his actions related to mediating tensions between India and Pakistan. Critics quickly condemned the nominations, calling them politically motivated and diplomatically premature.

According to the betting aggregator Oddschecker, Trump is the second favourite to win the Nobel Peace Prize 2025, with odds ranging from 17/2 or 10.5 per cent to 6/1 or 14.3 per cent. Earlier in May 2025, Oddschecker had listed Trump as the favourite ahead of Julian Assange and António Guterres. Some sportsbook markets like FanDuel and DraftKings put the odds at 32 per cent probability ahead of Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 17- 18 per cent, with Yulia Navalnaya widow of the Russian opposition leader, late Alexi Navalny, at the top with 34 per cent.

US President Donald Trump had not hidden his desire to win the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize. He had also been nominated earlier in the year by various lawmakers, including Claudia Tenney, Darrell Issa, and others, largely due to his role in brokering the Abraham Accords in the Middle East. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign committee, had earlier nominated Trump, but later withdrew due to his inability to broker peace between Kyiv and Moscow.

President Donald Trump, with his undeniable influence and being the democratically elected President of the wealthiest nation of the world, has a stake in the prize. But the Nobel committee historically weighs in broader geopolitical implications and controversies surrounding nominees. Other notable candidates are United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the Commissioner General of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, Philippe Lazzarini.