JRD Tata famously said population was one of India’s biggest liabilities. Ironically, it may turn out to be one of India’s biggest assets.&nbsp;

The fabled demographic dividend is already upon us. The dividend kicks in when the total number of Indians in the “productive” age group of 15-65 years surpasses the number of Indians above the age of 65 and below the age of 15.&nbsp;

India entered this zone in 2018. The productivity dividend is estimated to last till 2055 when the population of over-65s and under-15s will once again overtake the total number of working-age Indians between 15 and 65. The window of India’s demographic dividend will thus remain open for another 36 years.&nbsp;

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), formerly known as the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, says economic growth peaks during the period when a country’s working-age population of 15-65 is greater than the very old and the very young.&nbsp;

Japan’s demographic dividend began in 1964, leading to 25 years of high economic growth and the “Japanese miracle”. Though it technically lasted till 2004, Japan’s growth petered out from the 1990s.&nbsp;

China’s own demographic dividend began in 1996, coinciding with its surging economy and double-digit annual GDP growth, but is expected to last for an even shorter period than Japan’s demographic dividend. The key reason is former leader Mao Zedong’s one-child policy in the 1960s that 50 years later has progressively reduced the number of young Chinese.&nbsp;

The “greying” of China is one of the keys, but relatively unheralded causes of Beijing’s current economic slowdown just 23 years into its demographic dividend.&nbsp;

While the trade war with the United States has contributed to a dip in China’s economic growth, the steep fall in the productive population aged 15-65 constitutes a long-term structural economic weakness for China.&nbsp;

A young productive workforce spurs economic growth, but as a country becomes wealthier, women tend to have fewer children. Lower fertility rates lead to a gradual shift towards an ageing population. Moreover, as people grow richer, they live longer, increasing the ratio of over-65s relative to those in the working-age group of 15-65.&nbsp;

India’s female fertility rate has fallen dramatically since Independence. It was 5.9 children per woman in 1950, 3.8 in 1994 and 2.2 in 2018. The replacement rate, when births and deaths are roughly equal, is around 2.1. Thus India’s population is likely to start plateauing at approximately 1.55 billion within the next two decades. By then India’s total population would have surpassed China’s population, which will have begun to decline as its fertility rates fall further.&nbsp;

The other key metric is the dependency ratio — the percentage of the very old and very young who are supported by those in the productive 15-65 age group of the population. For India, this dependency ratio was as high as 81.5% in 1966. It fell to 60% in 2005 and to 49.8 per cent in 2018 when India formally entered its demographic dividend zone. Thus for the first time since Independence, India has fewer dependents than workers.&nbsp;

The demographic dividend though comes with a health warning: it can quite easily be squandered if education, health and skill development don’t keep pace.&nbsp;

Pessimists speak ominously of a demographic disaster if young workers in the productive age group are not given the skill sets needed in a rapidly changing economy. Poverty is a big handicap. Malnutrition is another. When nearly a quarter of the working-age population lacks education, healthcare and skills, the demographic dividend can be wasted. It is therefore critical to get India’s health and education parameters up to scratch.&nbsp;

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is right to focus on delivering welfare benefits to the poorest Indians — sanitation, health insurance, LPG cylinders, electricity and water. The focus on skill development and vocational training is crucial too. But such micro measures need to be supplemented with macroeconomic initiatives.&nbsp;

Unless the economy returns to an 8 per cent growth trajectory, providing jobs and investment opportunities, India might miss the demographic dividend bus. The window is narrow. Of the 36 years India has, the first 20 years are critical. As China and Japan witnessed, the effects of the demographic dividend taper off after an initial burst.&nbsp;

To reflate the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman must focus on structural reforms — tax, foreign investment, privatisation, labour and land.&nbsp;

Some of these are works in progress (labour and the direct tax code) while others (foreign investment and privatisation) are hostage to politics or ideology. The new direct tax code, to be announced shortly, should rationalise India’s complex and bloated tax regime.&nbsp;

Sitharaman’s most positive remark since her disappointing Union Budget holds promise. Speaking in the Rajya Sabha last week, Sitharaman said: “Reduction in the corporate tax rate is done with an intention. We will bring the corporate tax from the high rate that it was, from 30 per cent&nbsp;down to 25 per cent (for all companies). It was a commitment given in the first Budget in 2014. I have to honour it.”

It is important such intent translates into action. Structural economic reforms — alongside welfare schemes — are imperative if India is to make the fullest use of its once-in-a-generation demographic dividend.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-india-s-decisive-dividend-2777769">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

JRD Tata famously said population was one of India’s biggest liabilities. Ironically, it may turn out to be one of India’s biggest assets. The fabled demographic dividend is already upon us.

JRD Tata famously said population was one of India’s biggest liabilities. Ironically, it may turn out to be one of India’s biggest assets. The fabled demographic dividend is already upon us. The dividend kicks in when the total number of Indians in the “productive” age group of 15-65 years surpasses the number of Indians above the age of 65 and below the age of 15. India entered this zone in 2018. The productivity dividend is estimated to last till 2055 when the population of over-65s and under-15s will once again overtake the total number of working-age Indians between 15 and 65. The window of India’s demographic dividend will thus remain open for another 36 years. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), formerly known as the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, says economic growth peaks during the period when a country’s working-age population of 15-65 is greater than the very old and the very young. Japan’s demographic dividend began in 1964, leading to 25 years of high economic growth and the “Japanese miracle”. Though it technically lasted till 2004, Japan’s growth petered out from the 1990s. China’s own demographic dividend began in 1996, coinciding with its surging economy and double-digit annual GDP growth, but is expected to last for an even shorter period than Japan’s demographic dividend. The key reason is former leader Mao Zedong’s one-child policy in the 1960s that 50 years later has progressively reduced the number of young Chinese. The “greying” of China is one of the keys, but relatively unheralded causes of Beijing’s current economic slowdown just 23 years into its demographic dividend. While the trade war with the United States has contributed to a dip in China’s economic growth, the steep fall in the productive population aged 15-65 constitutes a long-term structural economic weakness for China. A young productive workforce spurs economic growth, but as a country becomes wealthier, women tend to have fewer children. Lower fertility rates lead to a gradual shift towards an ageing population. Moreover, as people grow richer, they live longer, increasing the ratio of over-65s relative to those in the working-age group of 15-65. India’s female fertility rate has fallen dramatically since Independence. It was 5.9 children per woman in 1950, 3.8 in 1994 and 2.2 in 2018. The replacement rate, when births and deaths are roughly equal, is around 2.1. Thus India’s population is likely to start plateauing at approximately 1.55 billion within the next two decades. By then India’s total population would have surpassed China’s population, which will have begun to decline as its fertility rates fall further. The other key metric is the dependency ratio — the percentage of the very old and very young who are supported by those in the productive 15-65 age group of the population. For India, this dependency ratio was as high as 81.5% in 1966. It fell to 60% in 2005 and to 49.8 per cent in 2018 when India formally entered its demographic dividend zone. Thus for the first time since Independence, India has fewer dependents than workers. The demographic dividend though comes with a health warning: it can quite easily be squandered if education, health and skill development don’t keep pace. Pessimists speak ominously of a demographic disaster if young workers in the productive age group are not given the skill sets needed in a rapidly changing economy. Poverty is a big handicap. Malnutrition is another. When nearly a quarter of the working-age population lacks education, healthcare and skills, the demographic dividend can be wasted. It is therefore critical to get India’s health and education parameters up to scratch. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is right to focus on delivering welfare benefits to the poorest Indians — sanitation, health insurance, LPG cylinders, electricity and water. The focus on skill development and vocational training is crucial too. But such micro measures need to be supplemented with macroeconomic initiatives. Unless the economy returns to an 8 per cent growth trajectory, providing jobs and investment opportunities, India might miss the demographic dividend bus. The window is narrow. Of the 36 years India has, the first 20 years are critical. As China and Japan witnessed, the effects of the demographic dividend taper off after an initial burst. To reflate the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman must focus on structural reforms — tax, foreign investment, privatisation, labour and land. Some of these are works in progress (labour and the direct tax code) while others (foreign investment and privatisation) are hostage to politics or ideology. The new direct tax code, to be announced shortly, should rationalise India’s complex and bloated tax regime. Sitharaman’s most positive remark since her disappointing Union Budget holds promise. Speaking in the Rajya Sabha last week, Sitharaman said: “Reduction in the corporate tax rate is done with an intention. We will bring the corporate tax from the high rate that it was, from 30 per cent down to 25 per cent (for all companies). It was a commitment given in the first Budget in 2014. I have to honour it.” It is important such intent translates into action. Structural economic reforms — alongside welfare schemes — are imperative if India is to make the fullest use of its once-in-a-generation demographic dividend. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Economic reforms and welfare schemes are key if India is to make fullest use of its demography

Coming down hard on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leader Sonia Gandhi said on Saturday that the ruling dispensation was undoing the work of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government.

&quot;The Modi government is not interested in addressing the needs of the poor. They are just ignoring and weakening the welfare programmes that we implemented it when we were in power,&quot; Sonia said while addressing party leaders at the 84th Congress plenary session, being held here.

&quot;In the last four years, this arrogant (Modi) government has left no stone unturned to destroy Congress. But Congress has never cowered down and it will never cower down,&quot; she asserted.

The former Congress president continued her tirade against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government claiming that her party was &quot;exposing fraud and corruption&quot; by the Modi government using proof.

Commenting on the rise of communal violence and lawlessness in the country under the BJP government, Sonia added, &quot;Wherever there is a non-Congress government, our friends are taking a stand against anarchy and violence in different places. They are continuing with their work and braving all of it. It is the Congress party which takes stand against injustice and raises its voice against it (violence).&quot;

Vowing to make India free from political vendetta and corruption, Sonia underscored that it was important for all to address the challenges and called for efforts to fulfill a &#39;corruption-free India&#39; under the leadership of her son and Congress President Rahul Gandhi respectively.

She also took a jibe at the BJP-led government&#39;s slogans of &#39;Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas&#39; and &#39;Na khaaoonga na khaane doona&#39;, saying that it was nothing but &quot;drama and tactic&quot; by the prime minister to garner votes.

Sonia went on to say that during former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh&#39;s rule at the Centre for 10 years, India had achieved a very high economic growth.

Citing the example of late Indira Gandhi&#39;s stunning victory at Chikmagalur in Karnataka 40 years ago, the Congress veteran further said the party had to rediscover the &#39;magic&#39; of winning the next year&#39;s general elections, adding that the Congress party&#39;s victory would be equal to a victory for the country.

Sonia also praised Rahul for taking over as the Congress President at such a &#39;challenging time&#39; and underscored that under her son&#39;s leadership, the party would reach new heights.

The grand-old party at the plenary session will ratify Rahul&#39;s appointment as the Congress President and select members for the Congress Working Committee.

Vowing to make India free from political vendetta and corruption, Sonia underscored that it was important for all to address the challenges

Coming down hard on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leader Sonia Gandhi said on Saturday that the ruling dispensation was undoing the work of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government. "The Modi government is not interested in addressing the needs of the poor. They are just ignoring and weakening the welfare programmes that we implemented it when we were in power," Sonia said while addressing party leaders at the 84th Congress plenary session, being held here. "In the last four years, this arrogant (Modi) government has left no stone unturned to destroy Congress. But Congress has never cowered down and it will never cower down," she asserted. The former Congress president continued her tirade against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government claiming that her party was "exposing fraud and corruption" by the Modi government using proof. Commenting on the rise of communal violence and lawlessness in the country under the BJP government, Sonia added, "Wherever there is a non-Congress government, our friends are taking a stand against anarchy and violence in different places. They are continuing with their work and braving all of it. It is the Congress party which takes stand against injustice and raises its voice against it (violence)." Vowing to make India free from political vendetta and corruption, Sonia underscored that it was important for all to address the challenges and called for efforts to fulfill a 'corruption-free India' under the leadership of her son and Congress President Rahul Gandhi respectively. She also took a jibe at the BJP-led government's slogans of 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas' and 'Na khaaoonga na khaane doona', saying that it was nothing but "drama and tactic" by the prime minister to garner votes. Sonia went on to say that during former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's rule at the Centre for 10 years, India had achieved a very high economic growth. Citing the example of late Indira Gandhi's stunning victory at Chikmagalur in Karnataka 40 years ago, the Congress veteran further said the party had to rediscover the 'magic' of winning the next year's general elections, adding that the Congress party's victory would be equal to a victory for the country. Sonia also praised Rahul for taking over as the Congress President at such a 'challenging time' and underscored that under her son's leadership, the party would reach new heights. The grand-old party at the plenary session will ratify Rahul's appointment as the Congress President and select members for the Congress Working Committee.

PM Modi govt weakening UPA's welfare schemes: Sonia Gandhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi today asked BJP MPs to take welfare schemes announced in the budget to the masses, saying that popularising them would lead to the party winning in the polls, according to leaders present at the meeting.

The MPs&#39; success is linked to the party&#39;s performance, the prime minister told the BJP parliamentary meeting, the leaders said.

Party president Amit Shah also spoke at the meeting and blamed Congress chief Rahul Gandhi&#39;s &quot;undemocratic&quot; politics for his party members heckling the prime minister during his speech in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday.

PM Modi dwelt at length on the Union budget, calling it especially positive for farmers and the poor while citing the announcement of a health insurance scheme for 10 crore families, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ananth Kumar told reporters.

PM Modi asked MPs to inform the masses about various pro-people features of the budget.

The prime minister also asked the gathering to hold meetings at booths to take various welfare schemes announced in the budget to people and run intensive campaigns to propagate them, Kumar said.

Some leaders present at the meeting later said the prime minister underlined the importance of popularising these schemes for winning polls and told them that their win was linked to the party&#39;s victory.

He asked them to hold mock parliaments in various places to discuss the budget and praised Finance Minister Arun Jaitley&#39;s reply in the Lok Sabha during a discussion on it.

PM Modi also heaped praise on Shah for his maiden speech in the Rajya Sabha.

The&nbsp;prime minister made a reference to his rally in Tripura, which goes to the polls on February 18, yesterday and said a huge crowd had arrived despite attempts of the state&#39;s Left government to prevent people from attending it.

Shah hit out at Congress chief Rahul Gandhi in his address, Kumar said.

Never before in the parliamentary history was a prime minister&#39;s reply to the president&#39;s address disrupted by the Oppositon, Shah said, referring to Congress protests in the well of the Lok Sabha during PM Modi&#39;s over 90-minute speech on Wednesday.

Gandhi&#39;s mindset is &quot;undemocratic&quot; and that is why the prime minister had to speak amid disruptions, he said.

When Manmohan Singh was prime minister for over 10 years, such a situation never occurred, he said.

Shah also touched on the Congress&#39; attack on the government over the Rafale aircraft deal, saying Jaitley in his speech had touched on its various aspects.

&quot;The broader details of the deal have been shared in Parliament. But every detail, including those about its weapons and their cost, cannot be made public,&quot; Kumar quoted Shah as saying.

Party president Amit Shah also spoke at the meeting and blamed Congress chief Rahul Gandhi's 'undemocratic' politics

Prime Minister Narendra Modi today asked BJP MPs to take welfare schemes announced in the budget to the masses, saying that popularising them would lead to the party winning in the polls, according to leaders present at the meeting. The MPs' success is linked to the party's performance, the prime minister told the BJP parliamentary meeting, the leaders said. Party president Amit Shah also spoke at the meeting and blamed Congress chief Rahul Gandhi's "undemocratic" politics for his party members heckling the prime minister during his speech in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday. PM Modi dwelt at length on the Union budget, calling it especially positive for farmers and the poor while citing the announcement of a health insurance scheme for 10 crore families, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ananth Kumar told reporters. PM Modi asked MPs to inform the masses about various pro-people features of the budget. The prime minister also asked the gathering to hold meetings at booths to take various welfare schemes announced in the budget to people and run intensive campaigns to propagate them, Kumar said. Some leaders present at the meeting later said the prime minister underlined the importance of popularising these schemes for winning polls and told them that their win was linked to the party's victory. He asked them to hold mock parliaments in various places to discuss the budget and praised Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's reply in the Lok Sabha during a discussion on it. PM Modi also heaped praise on Shah for his maiden speech in the Rajya Sabha. The prime minister made a reference to his rally in Tripura, which goes to the polls on February 18, yesterday and said a huge crowd had arrived despite attempts of the state's Left government to prevent people from attending it. Shah hit out at Congress chief Rahul Gandhi in his address, Kumar said. Never before in the parliamentary history was a prime minister's reply to the president's address disrupted by the Oppositon, Shah said, referring to Congress protests in the well of the Lok Sabha during PM Modi's over 90-minute speech on Wednesday. Gandhi's mindset is "undemocratic" and that is why the prime minister had to speak amid disruptions, he said. When Manmohan Singh was prime minister for over 10 years, such a situation never occurred, he said. Shah also touched on the Congress' attack on the government over the Rafale aircraft deal, saying Jaitley in his speech had touched on its various aspects. "The broader details of the deal have been shared in Parliament. But every detail, including those about its weapons and their cost, cannot be made public," Kumar quoted Shah as saying.

Taking welfare schemes to masses will lead to poll win: PM Modi

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