A charismatic <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-hospitalised-for-allergic-reaction-239039">anti-corruption campaigner, Alexei Navalny</a> has been Russia's leading opposition politician for around a decade, determined to challenge Vladimir Putin's grip on power despite frequent prison stays and even damage to his health.

The Yale-educated 43-year-old lawyer has been banned from state television and was barred from challenging Putin in a presidential election last year.

He has often been jailed and physically attacked, but has vowed to press ahead with his campaign to change Russia for the better.

Navalny has won a young fan base through viral videos exposing corruption among the elites and has more than two million followers on Twitter.

He has grabbed attention with his uncompromising rhetoric and coined phrases such as the "party of crooks and thieves" to slam the ruling party United Russia.

In 2011, the anti-corruption blogger led mass protests when tens of thousands took to the streets of <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/dozens-arrested-at-moscow-protest-after-opposition-crackdown-238830">Moscow</a> to protest against vote-rigging in parliamentary elections.

Two years later the father of two stood for Moscow mayor, coming second against Putin ally Sergei Sobyanin.

In 2017, he accused Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of massive corruption in a YouTube documentary. That kick-started a fresh wave of protests across the country that was met with police violence and mass arrests.&nbsp;

The same year he had to travel to Spain for surgery after one of several street attacks left him nearly blind in one eye.

Brother jailed

Navalny has faced a series of legal cases, which supporters see as punishment for his activism.

In 2013, he was found guilty in an embezzlement case involving a timber deal and given a five-year suspended sentence that disqualified him from standing for public office.

The European Court of Human Rights threw out the verdict but a retrial issued Navalny the same sentence.

He then had to spend months under house arrest and was often kept incommunicado over another graft case linked to French cosmetics company Yves Rocher.

In 2014, he was given another suspended sentence, and his brother Oleg, a co-defendant, was jailed for three and a half years in a decision activist have compared to "hostage-taking".

Navalny has said he learned about political campaigning from watching the US television series "House of Cards" and once listed <a href="https://www.wionews.com/entertainment/tom-cruise-arnold-schwarzenegger-revive-80s-hollywood-classics-at-comic-con-237124">Hollywood actor-turned-politician Arnold Schwarzenegger</a> among his heroes.

Navalny toured Russia ahead of the 2018 presidential election in an American-style campaign to rally his supporters.

But with the Kremlin tightly controlling the media, he remains a fringe figure for many Russians, who are exposed to the official portrayal of him as a Western stooge and convicted criminal.&nbsp;

Putin has refused to pronounce Navalny's name in public, instead referring to him as "the person you mentioned", among other euphemisms, when asked directly about the opposition leader.

Eye-catching exposes 
&nbsp; 
While barred from mainstream politics, Navalny has kept trying to expose the lavish wealth of Russia's elites, broadcasting the findings of his investigations to millions of Russians on social media and YouTube.

Trawling through land registries and the filings of offshore companies, Navalny and his team have helped lay bare the mansions and hidden fortunes of high-ranking officials.&nbsp;

Among Navalny's most eye-catching exposes have been details on the palatial homes of Putin's allies in Russia and abroad including one kitted out with a vast climate-controlled storage room for fur coats in the residence of Vladimir Yakunin, former chief of Russia's national railways.

But despite tapping into discontent among a largely young urban middle class he is far from a unifying opposition figure and some have criticised his anti-immigrant nationalist stance.

Several members of Navalny's team have fought hard to get on the ballot for Moscow parliament elections in September, each managing to collect roughly 5,000 signatures from supporters. They have been barred from running, along with other pro-Kremlin politicians.

Last week Navalny was jailed for calling an unauthorised protest over the ban and on Sunday he was rushed to a hospital. His lawyer and doctor said he had been "poisoned." 
&nbsp;

A charismatic anti-corruption campaigner, Alexei Navalny has been Russia's leading opposition politician for around a decade, determined to challenge Vladimir Putin's grip on power despite frequent prison stays and even damage to his health.

A charismatic anti-corruption campaigner, Alexei Navalny has been Russia's leading opposition politician for around a decade, determined to challenge Vladimir Putin's grip on power despite frequent prison stays and even damage to his health. The Yale-educated 43-year-old lawyer has been banned from state television and was barred from challenging Putin in a presidential election last year. He has often been jailed and physically attacked, but has vowed to press ahead with his campaign to change Russia for the better. Navalny has won a young fan base through viral videos exposing corruption among the elites and has more than two million followers on Twitter. He has grabbed attention with his uncompromising rhetoric and coined phrases such as the "party of crooks and thieves" to slam the ruling party United Russia. In 2011, the anti-corruption blogger led mass protests when tens of thousands took to the streets of Moscow to protest against vote-rigging in parliamentary elections. Two years later the father of two stood for Moscow mayor, coming second against Putin ally Sergei Sobyanin. In 2017, he accused Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of massive corruption in a YouTube documentary. That kick-started a fresh wave of protests across the country that was met with police violence and mass arrests. The same year he had to travel to Spain for surgery after one of several street attacks left him nearly blind in one eye. Brother jailed Navalny has faced a series of legal cases, which supporters see as punishment for his activism. In 2013, he was found guilty in an embezzlement case involving a timber deal and given a five-year suspended sentence that disqualified him from standing for public office. The European Court of Human Rights threw out the verdict but a retrial issued Navalny the same sentence. He then had to spend months under house arrest and was often kept incommunicado over another graft case linked to French cosmetics company Yves Rocher. In 2014, he was given another suspended sentence, and his brother Oleg, a co-defendant, was jailed for three and a half years in a decision activist have compared to "hostage-taking". Navalny has said he learned about political campaigning from watching the US television series "House of Cards" and once listed Hollywood actor-turned-politician Arnold Schwarzenegger among his heroes. Navalny toured Russia ahead of the 2018 presidential election in an American-style campaign to rally his supporters. But with the Kremlin tightly controlling the media, he remains a fringe figure for many Russians, who are exposed to the official portrayal of him as a Western stooge and convicted criminal. Putin has refused to pronounce Navalny's name in public, instead referring to him as "the person you mentioned", among other euphemisms, when asked directly about the opposition leader. Eye-catching exposes While barred from mainstream politics, Navalny has kept trying to expose the lavish wealth of Russia's elites, broadcasting the findings of his investigations to millions of Russians on social media and YouTube. Trawling through land registries and the filings of offshore companies, Navalny and his team have helped lay bare the mansions and hidden fortunes of high-ranking officials. Among Navalny's most eye-catching exposes have been details on the palatial homes of Putin's allies in Russia and abroad including one kitted out with a vast climate-controlled storage room for fur coats in the residence of Vladimir Yakunin, former chief of Russia's national railways. But despite tapping into discontent among a largely young urban middle class he is far from a unifying opposition figure and some have criticised his anti-immigrant nationalist stance. Several members of Navalny's team have fought hard to get on the ballot for Moscow parliament elections in September, each managing to collect roughly 5,000 signatures from supporters. They have been barred from running, along with other pro-Kremlin politicians. Last week Navalny was jailed for calling an unauthorised protest over the ban and on Sunday he was rushed to a hospital. His lawyer and doctor said he had been "poisoned."

Alexei Navalny: The lawyer standing up to Russia's President Vladimir Putin

*by&nbsp;Mehmet Ozalp

A head-spinning series of events in the past few weeks have taken us from the United States pulling out of Syria, to analysts predicting the beginning of a third world war.

What has really happened in Syria, what are the ramifications of the joint strike from the US, France and Britain, and what can we expect from the key players?

Certainly, the mess in Syria and heightened tensions in the Middle East make us all fear an impending world war, especially when both the Russian and US presidents engage in a round of chest-thumping. Despite this, there is no certainty that a world war will be triggered from the Syrian conflict.

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So proud of our great Military which will soon be, after the spending of billions of fully approved dollars, the finest that our Country has ever had. There won’t be anything, or anyone, even close!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/985133017256660995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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The latest chemical attack, allegedly perpetrated by the Syrian government, followed by the US, British, French retaliation, is really about aligning an unpredictable Trump with the Syria policy of the state and military establishment in Washington.

Why the strikes?

A world power like the US is seldom reactive. It often uses events as key moments to implement new policies or shift policies. An apparent correlation of events with policy implementation justifies the policy in the eyes of internal constituents and the wider international community.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Russia has followed an open and consistent policy: declare Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime the legitimate government of Syria, always support his regime to ensure it doesn’t collapse, and morally justify its involvement as a struggle against terrorism. The unspoken policy is to build up a challenge to Western dominance over not only the Middle East but geopolitical world order.

Yet, the US, and by extension, Western policy on Syria, was tentative, unclear and seemed to change course over the seven-year conflict.

Under Barack Obama’s administration, the US consistently stayed out of direct involvement in the Syrian conflict. Busy with the Iraq exit, Obama missed the window of diplomatic opportunity in the crucial early months of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When violence started, Obama elected to provide limited military support to opposition groups, hoping they could muster enough power to dismantle Assad.

The Obama administration shifted its policy after a chemical attack in Eastern Ghouta in 2013 prompted it to push for a United Nations resolution demanding the destruction of chemical stockpiles. This, in turn, gave impetus to peace talks in Geneva. Apparently, the stockpiles were not destroyed, as we have seen more chemical attacks.

Obama admitted his strategy failed, as the "US was muscled out of Syria” by an increasingly bold Russian President Vladimir Putin. His support allowed Assad to gain the upper hand in Syria with the fall of Aleppo in December 2016. Efforts to make progress in the Geneva talks were continually stalled. The parties failed to make any meaningful progress even as late as 2017.

In the early months of his presidency, the expectation was that Trump would change the US policy on Syria. It was uncertain what trajectory it would take, and when it would come to pass.

Not much happened until yet another chemical-gas attack by Assad in April 2017. The US responded with a massive missile attack, taking out 20% of Assad’s air force. The result was that the Trump administration committed to a more active involvement in Syria and the complete dismantling of the Islamic State presence in the country, but not necessarily the removal of Assad.

It is now apparent there was a fundamental difference between Trump and the key people in his administration in their understanding of the US’ Syria policy.

For Trump, it was always about eliminating IS. On April 3, he announced that the US’ primary mission in Syria was “getting rid of ISIS”. Since this had now been completed, he could bring the troops home.

Yet, in December 2017, Defence Secretary James Mattis said the US would continue its presence in Syria as a “stabilising force” beyond IS.

In January 2018, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed the US would stay in Syria beyond IS, adding that the continued US presence aimed to prevent Iranian and Assad forces regaining territory “liberated with help from the United States”.

So, Trump’s withdrawal intentions, or rather the public announcement, came as a surprise to his own administration as well as the international community. In response, the US special envoy for the global coalition against IS, Brett McGurk, said: "We are in Syria to fight ISIS. That is our mission, and our mission isn’t over, and we are going to complete that mission."

Other officials from the US administration and military made conflicting statements.

Trump’s withdrawal announcement opened the ground for other players to assert their plans. On April 4, Russia, Iran and Turkey held a summit in Turkey, at which Putin announced: "We have agreed to expand the entire range of our trilateral cooperation in Syria."

The trio’s plan included an intensified Turkish operation in northern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed “to clear all terror groups from the Syrian border, including the YPG,” the Kurdish military force that was backed by the US in its bid to eradicate IS from Syria.

It seemed Syria would be left to Russia, Iran, Turkey and Assad. Until, of course, the most recent chemical attack in Douma, a suburb near Damascus, on April 7. The attack was blamed on the Assad government even though it vehemently denied it, and there were allegations of rebel involvement.

Importantly, the chemical attack conveniently served the faction in the US administration advocating for a greater involvement in Syria. Their arguments pushed Trump towards retaliation. In a matter of days, Trump went from vowing withdrawal from Syria to saying they have a “big price to pay”.

A military response in the form of a missile attack was inevitable, and so it took place on April 13, when the US and its allies, Britain and France, made “precision missile strikes against the Syrian government”. The six-day delay was really to gain international support for the attack so that it did not appear to be a showdown between Russia and the US.

Where to from here?

The most recent events in Syria were really about aligning Trump’s understanding of Syrian policy with that of the state and military establishment. The policy is to stay in Syria beyond IS, preventing its revival and preventing Iranian and Assad forces from regaining territory.

It is unlikely there will be any other military strikes by the US and its allies anytime soon. There are two possible wild cards though – Trump’s unpredictability and a possible Russian retaliation.

Elements within the US administration in favour of continued US involvement in Syria will have to keep Trump calm – give him reasons why he should continue committing to Syria while preventing a direct Russian-US confrontation. Building a coalition with France and Britain prior to the missile retaliation served this purpose. It gave Russia the impression that the matter was a concern with the international community, rather than just the US.

Trump’s exaggerating nature and bombastic language in his tweets run the risk of escalating the situation. But they also help contain Russia, which is always unsure what Trump may say and do next.

A Russian response beyond condemnation is unlikely. Putin recently won a landslide victory in the March presidential elections. He is in no hurry to thump his chest into an all-out brawl with the US due to internal politics.

Furthermore, Russia is already in a diplomatic crisis over the assassination attempt of a former spy and his daughter with a nerve agent in London.

The US, Britain and more than a dozen European countries expelled Russian diplomats in retaliation. Putin is already quite vulnerable in the international scene. He will not enter a fight he is not certain to win.

While the US and its allies may feel morally justified in attacking the Assad government targets, any such intervention is unlikely to help the people of Syria. They will continue to be collateral damage caught in the crossfire of geopolitics.

*Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies, Director of The Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation and Executive Member of Public and Contextual Theology, Charles Sturt University

(This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/further-strikes-on-syria-unlikely-but-trump-is-always-the-wild-card-94814">original article</a>.)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the authors and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

A head-spinning series of events in the past few weeks have taken us from the United States pulling out of Syria, to analysts predicting the beginning of a third world war

*by Mehmet Ozalp A head-spinning series of events in the past few weeks have taken us from the United States pulling out of Syria, to analysts predicting the beginning of a third world war. What has really happened in Syria, what are the ramifications of the joint strike from the US, France and Britain, and what can we expect from the key players? Certainly, the mess in Syria and heightened tensions in the Middle East make us all fear an impending world war, especially when both the Russian and US presidents engage in a round of chest-thumping. Despite this, there is no certainty that a world war will be triggered from the Syrian conflict. So proud of our great Military which will soon be, after the spending of billions of fully approved dollars, the finest that our Country has ever had. There won’t be anything, or anyone, even close! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 14, 2018 × The latest chemical attack, allegedly perpetrated by the Syrian government, followed by the US, British, French retaliation, is really about aligning an unpredictable Trump with the Syria policy of the state and military establishment in Washington. Why the strikes? A world power like the US is seldom reactive. It often uses events as key moments to implement new policies or shift policies. An apparent correlation of events with policy implementation justifies the policy in the eyes of internal constituents and the wider international community. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Russia has followed an open and consistent policy: declare Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime the legitimate government of Syria, always support his regime to ensure it doesn’t collapse, and morally justify its involvement as a struggle against terrorism. The unspoken policy is to build up a challenge to Western dominance over not only the Middle East but geopolitical world order. Yet, the US, and by extension, Western policy on Syria, was tentative, unclear and seemed to change course over the seven-year conflict. Under Barack Obama’s administration, the US consistently stayed out of direct involvement in the Syrian conflict. Busy with the Iraq exit, Obama missed the window of diplomatic opportunity in the crucial early months of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When violence started, Obama elected to provide limited military support to opposition groups, hoping they could muster enough power to dismantle Assad. The Obama administration shifted its policy after a chemical attack in Eastern Ghouta in 2013 prompted it to push for a United Nations resolution demanding the destruction of chemical stockpiles. This, in turn, gave impetus to peace talks in Geneva. Apparently, the stockpiles were not destroyed, as we have seen more chemical attacks. Obama admitted his strategy failed, as the "US was muscled out of Syria” by an increasingly bold Russian President Vladimir Putin. His support allowed Assad to gain the upper hand in Syria with the fall of Aleppo in December 2016. Efforts to make progress in the Geneva talks were continually stalled. The parties failed to make any meaningful progress even as late as 2017. In the early months of his presidency, the expectation was that Trump would change the US policy on Syria. It was uncertain what trajectory it would take, and when it would come to pass. Not much happened until yet another chemical-gas attack by Assad in April 2017. The US responded with a massive missile attack, taking out 20% of Assad’s air force. The result was that the Trump administration committed to a more active involvement in Syria and the complete dismantling of the Islamic State presence in the country, but not necessarily the removal of Assad. It is now apparent there was a fundamental difference between Trump and the key people in his administration in their understanding of the US’ Syria policy. For Trump, it was always about eliminating IS. On April 3, he announced that the US’ primary mission in Syria was “getting rid of ISIS”. Since this had now been completed, he could bring the troops home. Yet, in December 2017, Defence Secretary James Mattis said the US would continue its presence in Syria as a “stabilising force” beyond IS. In January 2018, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed the US would stay in Syria beyond IS, adding that the continued US presence aimed to prevent Iranian and Assad forces regaining territory “liberated with help from the United States”. So, Trump’s withdrawal intentions, or rather the public announcement, came as a surprise to his own administration as well as the international community. In response, the US special envoy for the global coalition against IS, Brett McGurk, said: "We are in Syria to fight ISIS. That is our mission, and our mission isn’t over, and we are going to complete that mission." Other officials from the US administration and military made conflicting statements. Trump’s withdrawal announcement opened the ground for other players to assert their plans. On April 4, Russia, Iran and Turkey held a summit in Turkey, at which Putin announced: "We have agreed to expand the entire range of our trilateral cooperation in Syria." The trio’s plan included an intensified Turkish operation in northern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed “to clear all terror groups from the Syrian border, including the YPG,” the Kurdish military force that was backed by the US in its bid to eradicate IS from Syria. It seemed Syria would be left to Russia, Iran, Turkey and Assad. Until, of course, the most recent chemical attack in Douma, a suburb near Damascus, on April 7. The attack was blamed on the Assad government even though it vehemently denied it, and there were allegations of rebel involvement. Importantly, the chemical attack conveniently served the faction in the US administration advocating for a greater involvement in Syria. Their arguments pushed Trump towards retaliation. In a matter of days, Trump went from vowing withdrawal from Syria to saying they have a “big price to pay”. A military response in the form of a missile attack was inevitable, and so it took place on April 13, when the US and its allies, Britain and France, made “precision missile strikes against the Syrian government”. The six-day delay was really to gain international support for the attack so that it did not appear to be a showdown between Russia and the US. Where to from here? The most recent events in Syria were really about aligning Trump’s understanding of Syrian policy with that of the state and military establishment. The policy is to stay in Syria beyond IS, preventing its revival and preventing Iranian and Assad forces from regaining territory. It is unlikely there will be any other military strikes by the US and its allies anytime soon. There are two possible wild cards though – Trump’s unpredictability and a possible Russian retaliation. Elements within the US administration in favour of continued US involvement in Syria will have to keep Trump calm – give him reasons why he should continue committing to Syria while preventing a direct Russian-US confrontation. Building a coalition with France and Britain prior to the missile retaliation served this purpose. It gave Russia the impression that the matter was a concern with the international community, rather than just the US. Trump’s exaggerating nature and bombastic language in his tweets run the risk of escalating the situation. But they also help contain Russia, which is always unsure what Trump may say and do next. A Russian response beyond condemnation is unlikely. Putin recently won a landslide victory in the March presidential elections. He is in no hurry to thump his chest into an all-out brawl with the US due to internal politics. Furthermore, Russia is already in a diplomatic crisis over the assassination attempt of a former spy and his daughter with a nerve agent in London. The US, Britain and more than a dozen European countries expelled Russian diplomats in retaliation. Putin is already quite vulnerable in the international scene. He will not enter a fight he is not certain to win. While the US and its allies may feel morally justified in attacking the Assad government targets, any such intervention is unlikely to help the people of Syria. They will continue to be collateral damage caught in the crossfire of geopolitics. *Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies, Director of The Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation and Executive Member of Public and Contextual Theology, Charles Sturt University (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the authors and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: Further strikes on Syria unlikely - but Trump is always the wild card

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Alexei Navalny: The lawyer standing up to Russia's President Vladimir Putin

Opinion: Further strikes on Syria unlikely - but Trump is always the wild card