The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi.

The drawback of the model that was carved and implemented to the hilt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez between 2002 and 2013, a period that almost coincided with the Manmohan Singh's rule in India, was more tuned to addressing social inequalities rather than structural inequalities.

The present job crisis in India can be attributed and described as a direct fallout of the politics of populism practiced by the Congress party when it was in power between 2004 and 2014 since equity distribution was lopsided and the growth on economic infrastructure front also was compromised with maximum focus on direct cash transfer to the deprived sections through acts passed by the Indian Parliament to guarantee jobs, food, and education. While doing this, they typically aped the cash transfer policy that was being followed in Brazil and Mexico without bothering about the impact it would leave on the middle class wage earners and the economic growth of the country.

Following on the same footsteps, present Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced at a "Kisan Abhaar Sammelan" at Raipur this Monday that his party would implement a minimum income guarantee scheme for every poor if his party comes to power at the Centre this year.

Former finance minister P Chidambaram has laced the Congress decision regarding "minimum income guarantee" with the assertion that it would "wipe out poverty" and uplift about one-fifth of India's population that lacks the purchasing power to provide itself food, clothing and shelter.

Chidambaram has defended the decision by pointing out that India owes itself the responsibility of mobilising resources to rescue the deprived sections caught in the trap of poverty. For this purpose only 1.5 per cent of the GDP would be required and there should be no difficulty in meeting the target, he adds.

Before the nation goes to polls, the Congress party, through the sop of "minimum income guarantee", has tried to address that section of the Indian population which is suffering the most due to joblessness and poverty. According to basic estimates their number is huge - about 200 million. Obviously, the Congress party would like to use them as a vote bank in the coming parliamentary election.

Scarcity of jobs is a burning problem that is haunting the NDA government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre in a big way as its five year term is nearing completion.

Joblessness in India is an issue that has caught the attention of analysts in neighbouring China. Global Times, published under China's official People's Daily, also points to growing discontent, being faced by Prime Minister Modi. Hu Weijia, a reporter with the Global Times says: "If New Delhi restricts Chinese investment, the move will unavoidably cut job opportunities for young people (In India)."

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also has expressed concerns about financing and the lending environment in India "due to the collapse of Indian infrastructure development and high rate of non-performing assets among Indian banks" in its inaugural Asian Infrastructure Finance report released in Beijing on Tuesday.

The AIIB report talks of the downward trajectory when it comes to India's infrastructure transaction activity in terms of total completed and ongoing transactions each year from 2014 to 2016.

Economists and analysts of the long-term South Asian scenario, especially in the backdrop of the China-US trade disputes that have got aggravated by the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, have started talking of the advantages of Chinese companies investing in India's labour intensive industries. The Global Times has underscored that the Modi administration needs good news in terms of job growth ahead of the upcoming general election.

The projection by commentators exploring the prospects of mutual gain by both India and China under the current global scenario notwithstanding, what cannot be ignored is that the clock is ticking for Modi. Come elections and the top bulb of the sandglass will soon be empty.

Instead of populism, it is important at this juncture to address the issue of highly unequal levels of development, human development index and lopsided distribution of equity. Seeking investments and channelising resources for the purpose of building the economic infrastructure, so essential for improving the quality of life of the people across the board, should be the priority. Ahead of elections, the Modi government will have to take the Congress head on. Without wasting time, it will have to place on the table a policy design for evolving and creating a vibrant job market in India.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi.

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi. The drawback of the model that was carved and implemented to the hilt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez between 2002 and 2013, a period that almost coincided with the Manmohan Singh's rule in India, was more tuned to addressing social inequalities rather than structural inequalities. The present job crisis in India can be attributed and described as a direct fallout of the politics of populism practiced by the Congress party when it was in power between 2004 and 2014 since equity distribution was lopsided and the growth on economic infrastructure front also was compromised with maximum focus on direct cash transfer to the deprived sections through acts passed by the Indian Parliament to guarantee jobs, food, and education. While doing this, they typically aped the cash transfer policy that was being followed in Brazil and Mexico without bothering about the impact it would leave on the middle class wage earners and the economic growth of the country. Following on the same footsteps, present Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced at a "Kisan Abhaar Sammelan" at Raipur this Monday that his party would implement a minimum income guarantee scheme for every poor if his party comes to power at the Centre this year. Former finance minister P Chidambaram has laced the Congress decision regarding "minimum income guarantee" with the assertion that it would "wipe out poverty" and uplift about one-fifth of India's population that lacks the purchasing power to provide itself food, clothing and shelter. Chidambaram has defended the decision by pointing out that India owes itself the responsibility of mobilising resources to rescue the deprived sections caught in the trap of poverty. For this purpose only 1.5 per cent of the GDP would be required and there should be no difficulty in meeting the target, he adds. Before the nation goes to polls, the Congress party, through the sop of "minimum income guarantee", has tried to address that section of the Indian population which is suffering the most due to joblessness and poverty. According to basic estimates their number is huge - about 200 million. Obviously, the Congress party would like to use them as a vote bank in the coming parliamentary election. Scarcity of jobs is a burning problem that is haunting the NDA government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre in a big way as its five year term is nearing completion. Joblessness in India is an issue that has caught the attention of analysts in neighbouring China. Global Times, published under China's official People's Daily, also points to growing discontent, being faced by Prime Minister Modi. Hu Weijia, a reporter with the Global Times says: "If New Delhi restricts Chinese investment, the move will unavoidably cut job opportunities for young people (In India)." Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also has expressed concerns about financing and the lending environment in India "due to the collapse of Indian infrastructure development and high rate of non-performing assets among Indian banks" in its inaugural Asian Infrastructure Finance report released in Beijing on Tuesday. The AIIB report talks of the downward trajectory when it comes to India's infrastructure transaction activity in terms of total completed and ongoing transactions each year from 2014 to 2016. Economists and analysts of the long-term South Asian scenario, especially in the backdrop of the China-US trade disputes that have got aggravated by the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, have started talking of the advantages of Chinese companies investing in India's labour intensive industries. The Global Times has underscored that the Modi administration needs good news in terms of job growth ahead of the upcoming general election. The projection by commentators exploring the prospects of mutual gain by both India and China under the current global scenario notwithstanding, what cannot be ignored is that the clock is ticking for Modi. Come elections and the top bulb of the sandglass will soon be empty. Instead of populism, it is important at this juncture to address the issue of highly unequal levels of development, human development index and lopsided distribution of equity. Seeking investments and channelising resources for the purpose of building the economic infrastructure, so essential for improving the quality of life of the people across the board, should be the priority. Ahead of elections, the Modi government will have to take the Congress head on. Without wasting time, it will have to place on the table a policy design for evolving and creating a vibrant job market in India. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Minimum income guarantee: Populism versus long-term policy for a vibrant job market

A global rise of nationalist and populist tendencies has not only given anti-migrant, Islamophobic, anti-Semitic and racist tendencies a new lease on life, but opened the door to alliances between groups that once would have had nothing to do with one another.

Developments in Israel, Indonesia and Germany suggest renewed nationalism and populism is in some cases redefining how states perceive concepts of national interest and purpose and how religious and ethnic communities seek to shield themselves against discrimination, persecution and/or extremism.

The redefinition was no more evident than when Israel, founded as a safe haven for Jews irrespective of creed, sect or political belief, sided against its own ambassador with authoritarian Hungarian President Victor Orban, a proponent of Christianity rather than multi-culturalism as the glue of European society, in denouncing billionaire left-wing philanthropist George Soros, a survivor of the Holocaust.

In doing so, Israel, founded on the belief that Jews needed a state to shield themselves against discrimination and persecution rooted in anti-Semitic prejudice and racism that has been endemic in Christian culture, sided not only with a Christian nationalist leader in Hungary but with a global right-wing trend that sees Soros as the mastermind of a globalist movement, determined to subvert the established order and dilute the white, Christian nature of societies through immigration.

Israel’s acknowledgement of the redefinition of its raison d’etre came in response to a Facebook posting by Yossi Amrani, the Jewish state’s representative in Hungary. Responding to anti-immigration billboards depicting a smiling Soros with the slogan, ‘Let's not let Soros have the last laugh,’ Amrani, backed by Hungarian Jewish leaders, warned that they evoked "sad memories, but also sow hatred and fear."

Israel’s foreign ministry, days before a visit to Hungary by prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu, rather than taking a firm stand on rising anti-Semitism, effectively defined the Jewish state’s interest as joining Orban in denouncing a Jew.

As a result, Israel, despite seeing itself as the fulfilment of &nbsp;the Biblical prophecies of the Ingathering of the Exiles and the protector of Jewish rights, opted for denouncing a Jew together with a leader whose policies prompted the European Parliament to pursue unprecedented disciplinary action against Hungary over alleged breaches of the European Union's core values, including minority rights.

“In no way was the (ambassador’s) statement meant to delegitimise criticism of George Soros, who continuously undermines Israel’s democratically elected governments by funding organizations that defame the Jewish state and seek to deny it the right to defend itself,” the ministry said.

The implicit message, like Israel’s decision to bar entry to its Jewish critics despite its law of return that grants anyone who is Jewish a right to citizenship, was that Israel rather than being the potential home of all Jews was a home only to those who support the government’s policies.

Netanyahu’s alignment of Israel with right-wing nationalist and populist forces like his support for ultra-orthodox Jewish groups that deny equal rights for less stringent religious trends in Judaism on issues such as marriage, divorce, conversion and prayer at Jerusalem’s Western Wall, are likely to drive a wedge between the Jewish state and world Jewry, particularly in the United States.

The wedge, that puts Israel at odds with the Jewish Diaspora, could be deepened by this week’s Democratic Party success in regaining a majority in the US House of Representatives. Jews historically tend to vote Democratic in the US, a stark contrast with Netanyahu’s growing alliance with right-wing evangelists who support Israel because they believe the Messiah will only return to a Holy Land controlled by Jews.

Many evangelists, however, also believe that Jews will not be saved on the Day of Judgement without first converting to Christianity.

Israel’s divisive approach to World Jewry is not without its supporters in the Jewish Diaspora. Anti-Muslim and anti-migration sentiments have prompted some Jews to form their own group within Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party.

The notion that bigotry and prejudice are the best defences against rising anti-Semitism has meant that AfD Jews have little compunction about joining a party whose members favour abandoning Germany’s culture of remembrance and atonement for its Nazi past.

One AfD leader, Alexander Gauland, described Nazism as a “speck of bird poop in more than 1,000 years of successful German history.”

To be fair, the issue of rising prejudice and bigotry is not the exclusive perch of right-wing nationalist and populists. Britain’s Labour Party, traditionally a home for Jewish voters and activists, has been plagued by charges of anti-Semitism and reluctance to put its own house in order.

Moreover, the emergence of strange bedfellows in a world in which ideological affinity replaces defence of a community’s minority rights is not uniquely Israeli or Jewish.

Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest Islamic movements with some 94 million members in Indonesia, in a bid to reform Islam and counter all political expressions of the faith, risks being tainted by its potential tactical association with Islamophobes and Christian fundamentalists who would project their alliance as Muslim justification of their perception of the evils of Islam.

Nahdlatul Ulama is not alone in the Muslim world’s opportunistic engagement with the Christian right.

Saudi rulers, who long aligned themselves with a supremacist, intolerant interpretation of Islam that viewed Christians as swine and Jews as apes have discovered that they share with evangelists and fundamentalist Christians, a significant voting bloc in the United States and part of President Donald Trump’s support base, conservative family values as well as political interests.

In a first, Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, last week met with a delegation of US evangelists that included Reverend Johnnie Moore, Israel-based evangelical political strategist-turned-novelist Joel Rosenberg, former congresswoman Michele Bachmann; and prominent religious broadcasters.

The jury is out on whether the fallout of the rise of nationalism, populism and extremism heralds a new world in which bigotry and prejudice are legitimised as a defence strategy against discrimination, racism and persecution and an antidote to radicalism – a world that would likely prove to be far more divided and polarised and likely increasingly unsafe for minorities on the receiving end.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

A global rise of nationalist and populist tendencies has not only given anti-migrant, Islamophobic, anti-Semitic and racist tendencies a new lease on life, but opened the door to alliances between groups that once would have had nothing to do with one another.

A global rise of nationalist and populist tendencies has not only given anti-migrant, Islamophobic, anti-Semitic and racist tendencies a new lease on life, but opened the door to alliances between groups that once would have had nothing to do with one another. Developments in Israel, Indonesia and Germany suggest renewed nationalism and populism is in some cases redefining how states perceive concepts of national interest and purpose and how religious and ethnic communities seek to shield themselves against discrimination, persecution and/or extremism. The redefinition was no more evident than when Israel, founded as a safe haven for Jews irrespective of creed, sect or political belief, sided against its own ambassador with authoritarian Hungarian President Victor Orban, a proponent of Christianity rather than multi-culturalism as the glue of European society, in denouncing billionaire left-wing philanthropist George Soros, a survivor of the Holocaust. In doing so, Israel, founded on the belief that Jews needed a state to shield themselves against discrimination and persecution rooted in anti-Semitic prejudice and racism that has been endemic in Christian culture, sided not only with a Christian nationalist leader in Hungary but with a global right-wing trend that sees Soros as the mastermind of a globalist movement, determined to subvert the established order and dilute the white, Christian nature of societies through immigration. Israel’s acknowledgement of the redefinition of its raison d’etre came in response to a Facebook posting by Yossi Amrani, the Jewish state’s representative in Hungary. Responding to anti-immigration billboards depicting a smiling Soros with the slogan, ‘Let's not let Soros have the last laugh,’ Amrani, backed by Hungarian Jewish leaders, warned that they evoked "sad memories, but also sow hatred and fear." Israel’s foreign ministry, days before a visit to Hungary by prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu, rather than taking a firm stand on rising anti-Semitism, effectively defined the Jewish state’s interest as joining Orban in denouncing a Jew. As a result, Israel, despite seeing itself as the fulfilment of the Biblical prophecies of the Ingathering of the Exiles and the protector of Jewish rights, opted for denouncing a Jew together with a leader whose policies prompted the European Parliament to pursue unprecedented disciplinary action against Hungary over alleged breaches of the European Union's core values, including minority rights. “In no way was the (ambassador’s) statement meant to delegitimise criticism of George Soros, who continuously undermines Israel’s democratically elected governments by funding organizations that defame the Jewish state and seek to deny it the right to defend itself,” the ministry said. The implicit message, like Israel’s decision to bar entry to its Jewish critics despite its law of return that grants anyone who is Jewish a right to citizenship, was that Israel rather than being the potential home of all Jews was a home only to those who support the government’s policies. Netanyahu’s alignment of Israel with right-wing nationalist and populist forces like his support for ultra-orthodox Jewish groups that deny equal rights for less stringent religious trends in Judaism on issues such as marriage, divorce, conversion and prayer at Jerusalem’s Western Wall, are likely to drive a wedge between the Jewish state and world Jewry, particularly in the United States. The wedge, that puts Israel at odds with the Jewish Diaspora, could be deepened by this week’s Democratic Party success in regaining a majority in the US House of Representatives. Jews historically tend to vote Democratic in the US, a stark contrast with Netanyahu’s growing alliance with right-wing evangelists who support Israel because they believe the Messiah will only return to a Holy Land controlled by Jews. Many evangelists, however, also believe that Jews will not be saved on the Day of Judgement without first converting to Christianity. Israel’s divisive approach to World Jewry is not without its supporters in the Jewish Diaspora. Anti-Muslim and anti-migration sentiments have prompted some Jews to form their own group within Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party. The notion that bigotry and prejudice are the best defences against rising anti-Semitism has meant that AfD Jews have little compunction about joining a party whose members favour abandoning Germany’s culture of remembrance and atonement for its Nazi past. One AfD leader, Alexander Gauland, described Nazism as a “speck of bird poop in more than 1,000 years of successful German history.” To be fair, the issue of rising prejudice and bigotry is not the exclusive perch of right-wing nationalist and populists. Britain’s Labour Party, traditionally a home for Jewish voters and activists, has been plagued by charges of anti-Semitism and reluctance to put its own house in order. Moreover, the emergence of strange bedfellows in a world in which ideological affinity replaces defence of a community’s minority rights is not uniquely Israeli or Jewish. Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest Islamic movements with some 94 million members in Indonesia, in a bid to reform Islam and counter all political expressions of the faith, risks being tainted by its potential tactical association with Islamophobes and Christian fundamentalists who would project their alliance as Muslim justification of their perception of the evils of Islam. Nahdlatul Ulama is not alone in the Muslim world’s opportunistic engagement with the Christian right. Saudi rulers, who long aligned themselves with a supremacist, intolerant interpretation of Islam that viewed Christians as swine and Jews as apes have discovered that they share with evangelists and fundamentalist Christians, a significant voting bloc in the United States and part of President Donald Trump’s support base, conservative family values as well as political interests. In a first, Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, last week met with a delegation of US evangelists that included Reverend Johnnie Moore, Israel-based evangelical political strategist-turned-novelist Joel Rosenberg, former congresswoman Michele Bachmann; and prominent religious broadcasters. The jury is out on whether the fallout of the rise of nationalism, populism and extremism heralds a new world in which bigotry and prejudice are legitimised as a defence strategy against discrimination, racism and persecution and an antidote to radicalism – a world that would likely prove to be far more divided and polarised and likely increasingly unsafe for minorities on the receiving end. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Ideology trumps defence of ethnic, religious and minority rights

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will today present the current NDA government&#39;s fifth and arguably his toughest Budget yet as he seeks to address agriculture distress, create jobs and boost growth while at the same time stick to fiscal prudence.

The Budget, in view of upcoming assembly polls in eight states - including three major states ruled by the BJP - and general elections next year, may see new rural schemes and stepping up of funding towards existing programmes like MNREGA, rural housing, irrigation projects and crop insurance.

With the recent elections in Gujarat indicating erosion of BJP&#39;s rural vote base, Jaitley may also unveil incentives for the farm sector. 
Small businesses, which have traditionally formed the core support base of the BJP, too may get some sops to ease pain caused to them due to chaotic rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation.

There is also an expectation that common man may get some relief in income tax by way of a raise in the exemption limit.

Also on Jaitley&#39;s menu may be upping spending on infrastructure projects like highways and modernisation of railways to boost economic growth that is at a four-year low.

But he has to do all this while sticking to the road map of narrowing one of Asia&#39;s largest budget deficits, as failing which, India may fall on the wrong side of global investors and credit rating agencies which had late last year handed out a rare sovereign upgrade.

The target Jaitley had previously set out was to lower the fiscal deficit to 3.2 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal and to 3 per cent in 2018-19, the Budget for which he would present in the Lok Sabha tomorrow.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to have already lowered expectations of mass voter swaying announcements when he indicated that the Budget may not be resort to populism and that it was a myth that common man wants sop.

This will be India&#39;s first post-GST and is being keenly watched to see what Jaitley does to boost growth in Asia&#39;s third largest economy. 
There are talks that tax break on capital gains from stock investments may go and it remains to be seen if Jaitley will finally show some movement on his 2015 promise to lower corporate tax rate to 25 per cent from 30 per cent over four years.

He has to manoeuvre all this within limited scope of tinkering with tax rates given that central excise duty, which was levied on goods manufactured in the country, and service tax have both been subsumed in the GST and he no longer has the sole power to fix rates on them.

Also constraining him would be the rise in global oil prices, which can stoke inflation as well as widen current account deficit.

Some kind of incentives to boost exports of certain sectors may be announced while there may be announcements for start-ups as well as for promoting entrepreneurship.

There have been mixed signals on deficit target, with Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian earlier this week stating that a pause in the fiscal consolidation plan can&#39;t be ruled out while Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar saying the government is likely to stick to the target.

In the first eight months of 2017-18, fiscal deficit reached 112 per cent of the target, stoking fears of a fiscal slippage. The shortfall was largely due to reduced dividends from government companies, which the government looks to bridge through stake sale in state-owned firms like HPCL.

Scrapping the colonial-era tradition of presenting the Budget at the end of February, Jaitley had for the first time presented the annual accounts on February 1 last year.

The Budget presentation was advanced by a month to ensure that proposals take effect from April 1, the beginning of the new financial year.

Also, the nearly century old tradition of having a separate budget for the railways was scrapped and merged with the general budget.

The Union Budget 2018-19 would be the last full Budget of the BJP-led NDA government before the 2019 general elections. As per the practice, a vote-on-account or approval for essential government spending for a limited period is taken in the election year and a full-fledged budget presented by the new government.

While P Chidambaram had presented the previous UPA government&#39;s vote-on-account in February 2014, Jaitley had presented a full budget in July that year. 
The Budget for 2018-19 will be the first budget post implementation of the GST regime.

Even though independent India&#39;s biggest tax reform of GST was implemented from July 1, the Budget for 2017-18 (April- March), had followed the practice of tax revenue projections under the heads of customs duty, central excise and service tax alongside direct tax numbers.

With excise duty and service tax being subsumed in the GST, the classifications in the forthcoming budget may undergo change.

While a new classification for revenues to be accrued from GST will be included in the Budget for the next fiscal, for the current year two sets of accounting may be presented, one for actual accruals during April-June for excise, customs and service tax, and the other for July-March period for GST and customs duty.&nbsp;

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present this government's fifth and arguably toughest Budget today

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will today present the current NDA government's fifth and arguably his toughest Budget yet as he seeks to address agriculture distress, create jobs and boost growth while at the same time stick to fiscal prudence. The Budget, in view of upcoming assembly polls in eight states - including three major states ruled by the BJP - and general elections next year, may see new rural schemes and stepping up of funding towards existing programmes like MNREGA, rural housing, irrigation projects and crop insurance. With the recent elections in Gujarat indicating erosion of BJP's rural vote base, Jaitley may also unveil incentives for the farm sector. Small businesses, which have traditionally formed the core support base of the BJP, too may get some sops to ease pain caused to them due to chaotic rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation. There is also an expectation that common man may get some relief in income tax by way of a raise in the exemption limit. Also on Jaitley's menu may be upping spending on infrastructure projects like highways and modernisation of railways to boost economic growth that is at a four-year low. But he has to do all this while sticking to the road map of narrowing one of Asia's largest budget deficits, as failing which, India may fall on the wrong side of global investors and credit rating agencies which had late last year handed out a rare sovereign upgrade. The target Jaitley had previously set out was to lower the fiscal deficit to 3.2 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal and to 3 per cent in 2018-19, the Budget for which he would present in the Lok Sabha tomorrow. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to have already lowered expectations of mass voter swaying announcements when he indicated that the Budget may not be resort to populism and that it was a myth that common man wants sop. This will be India's first post-GST and is being keenly watched to see what Jaitley does to boost growth in Asia's third largest economy. There are talks that tax break on capital gains from stock investments may go and it remains to be seen if Jaitley will finally show some movement on his 2015 promise to lower corporate tax rate to 25 per cent from 30 per cent over four years. He has to manoeuvre all this within limited scope of tinkering with tax rates given that central excise duty, which was levied on goods manufactured in the country, and service tax have both been subsumed in the GST and he no longer has the sole power to fix rates on them. Also constraining him would be the rise in global oil prices, which can stoke inflation as well as widen current account deficit. Some kind of incentives to boost exports of certain sectors may be announced while there may be announcements for start-ups as well as for promoting entrepreneurship. There have been mixed signals on deficit target, with Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian earlier this week stating that a pause in the fiscal consolidation plan can't be ruled out while Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar saying the government is likely to stick to the target. In the first eight months of 2017-18, fiscal deficit reached 112 per cent of the target, stoking fears of a fiscal slippage. The shortfall was largely due to reduced dividends from government companies, which the government looks to bridge through stake sale in state-owned firms like HPCL. Scrapping the colonial-era tradition of presenting the Budget at the end of February, Jaitley had for the first time presented the annual accounts on February 1 last year. The Budget presentation was advanced by a month to ensure that proposals take effect from April 1, the beginning of the new financial year. Also, the nearly century old tradition of having a separate budget for the railways was scrapped and merged with the general budget. The Union Budget 2018-19 would be the last full Budget of the BJP-led NDA government before the 2019 general elections. As per the practice, a vote-on-account or approval for essential government spending for a limited period is taken in the election year and a full-fledged budget presented by the new government. While P Chidambaram had presented the previous UPA government's vote-on-account in February 2014, Jaitley had presented a full budget in July that year. The Budget for 2018-19 will be the first budget post implementation of the GST regime. Even though independent India's biggest tax reform of GST was implemented from July 1, the Budget for 2017-18 (April- March), had followed the practice of tax revenue projections under the heads of customs duty, central excise and service tax alongside direct tax numbers. With excise duty and service tax being subsumed in the GST, the classifications in the forthcoming budget may undergo change. While a new classification for revenues to be accrued from GST will be included in the Budget for the next fiscal, for the current year two sets of accounting may be presented, one for actual accruals during April-June for excise, customs and service tax, and the other for July-March period for GST and customs duty.

Jaitley has tough task of choosing between populism, prudence in today's Budget

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