Can nuclear testing result in an uncharacteristic rise in seismic activity and that too for the long term? While this theory has remained in the realm of speculation, a new study has thrown up a startling revelation in this regard. The study published in, the science journal by researchers from China and South Korea, analysed seismic recordings collected between 2008 and 2025.&nbsp;They used wave forms of known earthquakes as templates to find much fainter events buried in background noise.The study found that North Korea's six underground nuclear tests conducted from 2006 to 2017, at mount mantap were followed by close to 1,400 local earthquakes until 2025.&nbsp;It is worth noting that the country's final nuclear nuclear test, with an explosive yield of 160 kilo tonnes, unleashed an earthquake of 6.3 magnitude, and is believed to have resulted in an on-site collapse of a tunnel.&nbsp;While nuclear tests have long been known to cause small earthquakes, the effects are typically shortlived. Additionally, the area had been quiet tectonically, with earthquakes virtually unheard of.&nbsp;Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/gravitas/australia-mulls-ban-on-smart-glasses-in-govt-offices-amid-privacy-concerns-gravitas-1789753691089">Australia mulls ban on smart glasses in govt offices amid privacy concerns | Gravitas</a>&nbsp;Then what explains the north Korean phenomenon?&nbsp;According to the study, repeated explosions progressively damaged the earth's crust, and increased seismicity as at least two pre-existing intraplate faults became active.&nbsp;According to some experts, nuclear tests may have fractured a large volume of rock creating new cracks. According to the study's authors, the discovery that underground nuclear tests can trigger intensified seismic activity could complicate long-term monitoring of nuclear test sites.&nbsp;This manifested earlier this year, after at least 17 earthquakes struck near the highly classified. Area 51 in nevada within a period of 24 hours in late April.&nbsp;As this was close to the nevada test site, where u.S. Conducted nuclear tests from 1951 until 1992. conspiracy theories about covert nuclear testing gained traction.

It is worth noting that the country's final nuclear nuclear test, with an explosive yield of 160 kilo tonnes, unleashed an earthquake of 6.3 magnitude, and is believed to have resulted in an on-site collapse of a tunnel.

Can nuclear testing result in an uncharacteristic rise in seismic activity and that too for the long term? While this theory has remained in the realm of speculation, a new study has thrown up a startling revelation in this regard. The study published in, the science journal by researchers from China and South Korea, analysed seismic recordings collected between 2008 and 2025. They used wave forms of known earthquakes as templates to find much fainter events buried in background noise. The study found that North Korea's six underground nuclear tests conducted from 2006 to 2017, at mount mantap were followed by close to 1,400 local earthquakes until 2025. It is worth noting that the country's final nuclear nuclear test, with an explosive yield of 160 kilo tonnes, unleashed an earthquake of 6.3 magnitude, and is believed to have resulted in an on-site collapse of a tunnel. While nuclear tests have long been known to cause small earthquakes, the effects are typically shortlived. Additionally, the area had been quiet tectonically, with earthquakes virtually unheard of. Also read: Australia mulls ban on smart glasses in govt offices amid privacy concerns | Gravitas Then what explains the north Korean phenomenon? According to the study, repeated explosions progressively damaged the earth's crust, and increased seismicity as at least two pre-existing intraplate faults became active. According to some experts, nuclear tests may have fractured a large volume of rock creating new cracks. According to the study's authors, the discovery that underground nuclear tests can trigger intensified seismic activity could complicate long-term monitoring of nuclear test sites. This manifested earlier this year, after at least 17 earthquakes struck near the highly classified. Area 51 in nevada within a period of 24 hours in late April. As this was close to the nevada test site, where u.S. Conducted nuclear tests from 1951 until 1992. conspiracy theories about covert nuclear testing gained traction.

It is worth noting that the country's final nuclear nuclear test, with an explosive yield of 160 kilo tonnes, unleashed an earthquake of 6.3 magnitude, and is believed to have resulted in an on-site collapse of a tunnel.

North Korea's nuclear tests triggered 1,399 earthquakes: Earth is still shaking | Gravitas

According to reports in U.S. media, while trying to mediate between Tehran and Washington, Islamabad allowed Iranian aircraft to park on Pakistani airbases, potentially shielding them from possible American airstrikes. Has Pakistan double-crossed the U.S.? Has U.S. President Donald Trump been betrayed? 

Trump Betrayed by Favourite Munir, Pak Double Crosses America in Iran War

U.S. President Donald J. Trump confirms that the United States has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
Trump stated that updates and renovations of existing weapons were completed during his first term.
He also announced that the Department of War will resume nuclear weapons testing immediately, citing global security concerns and other nations’ testing programs.

US President Trump declines comment on warhead detonation plans

After Trump's nuclear testing order, China urged the United States to "earnestly abide" by a global nuclear testing ban. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said that China would like the US to take concrete actions to safeguard the global nuclear disarmament. Trump on Wednesday (Oct 30) said that he has instructed the Department of War to start testing nuclear weapons "immediately," without offering further details. The move came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow had successfully tested a nuclear-capable, nuclear-powered underwater drone. Notably, this is the first time the US ordered testing of nuclear weapons after 1992.&nbsp;Read More | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/-i-hated-to-do-it-trump-orders-first-nuclear-weapons-testing-since-1992-citing-russia-and-china-1761788572426">'I HATED to do it...': Trump orders first nuclear weapons testing since 1992 — citing Russia and China</a>&nbsp;"China hopes the United States will earnestly abide by the obligations of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty and its commitment to a ban on nuclear testing, and take concrete actions to safeguard the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation system and safeguard global strategic balance and stability," foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said.&nbsp;Read More | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/-we-should-not-fall-into-vicious-cycle-of-revenge-xi-jinping-after-meeting-trump-no-word-on-rare-earth-deal-america-visit-1761806296143">'We should not fall into vicious cycle of revenge': Xi Jinping after meeting Trump, no word on rare-earth deal, America visit</a>&nbsp;In a Truth Social post, Trump said that the United States has more nuclear weapons than any other country. Highlighting that he hates testing of nuclear weapons “because of the tremendous destructive power,” Trump added that he is ordering the same because of the testing programs of other nations. “Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately,” he said in the post.&nbsp;&nbsp;The US last conducted a nuclear test, “Divider,” on September 23, 1992, at the Nevada National Security Site. Then President George H. W Bush imposed a moratorium that year, but the US retains the capability to resume testing at the same site if needed. However, in response to Trump’s post, Nevada congresswoman Dina Titus posted on X: “Absolutely not. I’ll be introducing legislation to put a stop to this.”

China urged the US to honour the global nuclear test ban after Trump ordered immediate nuclear weapons testing, the first since 1992. Beijing called for concrete action to protect disarmament efforts

After Trump's nuclear testing order, China urged the United States to "earnestly abide" by a global nuclear testing ban. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said that China would like the US to take concrete actions to safeguard the global nuclear disarmament. Trump on Wednesday (Oct 30) said that he has instructed the Department of War to start testing nuclear weapons "immediately," without offering further details. The move came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow had successfully tested a nuclear-capable, nuclear-powered underwater drone. Notably, this is the first time the US ordered testing of nuclear weapons after 1992. Read More | 'I HATED to do it...': Trump orders first nuclear weapons testing since 1992 — citing Russia and China "China hopes the United States will earnestly abide by the obligations of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty and its commitment to a ban on nuclear testing, and take concrete actions to safeguard the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation system and safeguard global strategic balance and stability," foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said. Read More | 'We should not fall into vicious cycle of revenge': Xi Jinping after meeting Trump, no word on rare-earth deal, America visit In a Truth Social post, Trump said that the United States has more nuclear weapons than any other country. Highlighting that he hates testing of nuclear weapons “because of the tremendous destructive power,” Trump added that he is ordering the same because of the testing programs of other nations. “Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately,” he said in the post. The US last conducted a nuclear test, “Divider,” on September 23, 1992, at the Nevada National Security Site. Then President George H. W Bush imposed a moratorium that year, but the US retains the capability to resume testing at the same site if needed. However, in response to Trump’s post, Nevada congresswoman Dina Titus posted on X: “Absolutely not. I’ll be introducing legislation to put a stop to this.”

China urged the US to honour the global nuclear test ban after Trump ordered immediate nuclear weapons testing, the first since 1992. Beijing called for concrete action to protect disarmament efforts

'Will earnestly abide by...': China's first response after Trump allows nuclear weapons testing 'immediately'

Iran was hit by a 5.2 magnitude earthquake late Friday (June 21), sending tremors through the region. According to the reports, the earthquake hit the area near Iran’s Semnan at 5:49 local time, with the depth recorded at 10 km.This comes amid Israel and Iran engaging in a deadly war as Israel on June 13 launched Operation Rising Lion, with an aim to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, top military officials and nuclear scientists.According to Iranian local media, no casualties were reported and the damage was minimal, which triggered concerns over nuclear testing.As war between the two nations escalated, the earthquake’s proximity raised concerns for speculation over possible nuclear activity.Moreover, the quake’s timing as well as its proximity to Semnan reflects more chances of a possible nuclear testing, as it is a site known for its missile and aerospace infrastructure, raising concerns on social media after the quake.<h2>Iran’s seismologic history</h2>Seismologically, Iran is highly active due to its position on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt. Hence, it is prone to earthquakes.Iran has witnessed over 2000 earthquakes annually, including 15 to 16 of magnitude 5.0 or higher.Moreover, according to an analysis, 96000 earthquakes jolted Iran between 2006 and 2015.According to experts and reports, nuclear activities, particularly underground nuclear explosions, can induce earthquakes by releasing tectonic stress near the blast.These explosions are typically much smaller in magnitude than the explosion itself and are limited to a range of a few tens of kilometres from the blast site according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).Earlier on June 17, a magnitude 4.2 earthquake struck near Borazjan in Bushehr province, followed by another 4.2 magnitude quake near Kashmar in Razavi Khorasan just a day later. These events highlight the constant seismic risk faced by the region and the importance of preparedness in earthquake-prone areas like Iran.&nbsp;

This comes amid Israel and Iran engaging in a deadly war as Israel on June 13 launched Operation Rising Lion, with an aim to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, top military officials and nuclear scientists.

Iran was hit by a 5.2 magnitude earthquake late Friday (June 21), sending tremors through the region. According to the reports, the earthquake hit the area near Iran’s Semnan at 5:49 local time, with the depth recorded at 10 km. This comes amid Israel and Iran engaging in a deadly war as Israel on June 13 launched Operation Rising Lion, with an aim to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, top military officials and nuclear scientists. According to Iranian local media, no casualties were reported and the damage was minimal, which triggered concerns over nuclear testing. As war between the two nations escalated, the earthquake’s proximity raised concerns for speculation over possible nuclear activity. Moreover, the quake’s timing as well as its proximity to Semnan reflects more chances of a possible nuclear testing, as it is a site known for its missile and aerospace infrastructure, raising concerns on social media after the quake. Iran’s seismologic history Seismologically, Iran is highly active due to its position on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt. Hence, it is prone to earthquakes. Iran has witnessed over 2000 earthquakes annually, including 15 to 16 of magnitude 5.0 or higher. Moreover, according to an analysis, 96000 earthquakes jolted Iran between 2006 and 2015. According to experts and reports, nuclear activities, particularly underground nuclear explosions, can induce earthquakes by releasing tectonic stress near the blast. These explosions are typically much smaller in magnitude than the explosion itself and are limited to a range of a few tens of kilometres from the blast site according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). Earlier on June 17, a magnitude 4.2 earthquake struck near Borazjan in Bushehr province, followed by another 4.2 magnitude quake near Kashmar in Razavi Khorasan just a day later. These events highlight the constant seismic risk faced by the region and the importance of preparedness in earthquake-prone areas like Iran.

This comes amid Israel and Iran engaging in a deadly war as Israel on June 13 launched Operation Rising Lion, with an aim to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, top military officials and nuclear scientists.

'2,100 earthquakes a year': Iran and its seismologic history - Just a natural earthquake or a link to nuclear testing?

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday (Oct 5) that Moscow is aiming to create a "new world" as he blamed the Western hegemony for a grinding offensive in Ukraine. The Russian leader also portrayed the war in Ukraine as a part of a long-standing confrontation with the West.&nbsp;

Putin claimed Russia had “practically finished work on the modern strategic weapons that I have been talking about and I announced a few years ago”.

He&nbsp;once again issued a nuclear threat and added that the&nbsp;‘Satan-2’ and ‘Flying Chernobyl’ missiles would be ready soon.

“From the moment the launch of missiles is detected, no matter where it comes from - from any point of the world ocean or from any territory - such a number, so many hundreds of our missiles appear in the air in a retaliatory strike that there is no chance of survival there will be no single enemy left, and in several directions at once," Putin said.

Putin said Russia is "tasked, essentially, with building a new world" and further added that the West was aiming for global "hegemony". Putin said, "The West always needs an enemy."&nbsp;

In a stark warning to the West, Putin said that Russia could resume nuclear testing for the first time in over three decades and might withdraw its ratification of a landmark nuclear test ban treaty.&nbsp;

Also read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/zelensky-alleges-brutal-russian-crime-in-ukraine-after-at-least-48-killed-in-strike-642980">Zelensky alleges 'brutal Russian crime' in Ukraine after at least 49 killed in strike</a>

Putin mentioned the Burevestnik as he said that Moscow had successfully tested a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile. He said that the capabilities of the Burevestnik are unmatched.&nbsp;

Putin also said that no one in the world in their right mind would use nuclear weapons against Russia and that potential enemies knew about Russia's nuclear arsenal.&nbsp;

The Kremlin chief said there was no need to change Russia's nuclear doctrine, however, as any attack on Russia would provoke a split-second response with hundreds of nuclear missiles.&nbsp;

On the nuclear doctrine, Putin said, "Do we need to change this? And why? Everything can be changed but I just don't see the need for it."&nbsp;

"I think no person of sound mind and clear memory would think of using nuclear weapons against Russia," he said.&nbsp;

Watch:&nbsp;Ex-German ambassador to NATO on war in Ukraine &amp; impact of US Elections&nbsp;

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<h2>Putin targets US&nbsp;</h2>

Putin also accused the US of directing other countries on how to behave.

In his annual keynote speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, in Sochi, Putin targeted the US and said, "All the time, we hear 'You must', 'You have to', 'We're seriously warning you'. Who are you anyway? What right do you have to warn anyone? Maybe it’s time you yourself got rid of your arrogance and stopped behaving that way towards the world."&nbsp;

Also read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-to-set-up-naval-base-in-breakaway-georgian-region-of-abkhazia-642924">Russia to set up naval base in breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia</a>&nbsp;

<h2>Ukraine war not a 'territorial one'&nbsp;</h2>

The Russian leader said that the conflict in Ukraine was "not a territorial" one and that Moscow has "no interests from the point of view of conquering some territories."&nbsp;

In the aftermath of the war, Russia's army occupies large swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine, and Putin has formally annexed four Ukrainian regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Lugansk. &nbsp;

Putin has consistently said that Ukrainian territory was historically Russian and questioned Ukrainian statehood.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies) 
&nbsp;

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday (Oct 5) that Moscow is aiming to create a "new world" as he blamed the Western hegemony for a grinding offensive in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday (Oct 5) that Moscow is aiming to create a "new world" as he blamed the Western hegemony for a grinding offensive in Ukraine. The Russian leader also portrayed the war in Ukraine as a part of a long-standing confrontation with the West. Putin claimed Russia had “practically finished work on the modern strategic weapons that I have been talking about and I announced a few years ago”. He once again issued a nuclear threat and added that the ‘Satan-2’ and ‘Flying Chernobyl’ missiles would be ready soon. “From the moment the launch of missiles is detected, no matter where it comes from - from any point of the world ocean or from any territory - such a number, so many hundreds of our missiles appear in the air in a retaliatory strike that there is no chance of survival there will be no single enemy left, and in several directions at once," Putin said. Putin said Russia is "tasked, essentially, with building a new world" and further added that the West was aiming for global "hegemony". Putin said, "The West always needs an enemy." In a stark warning to the West, Putin said that Russia could resume nuclear testing for the first time in over three decades and might withdraw its ratification of a landmark nuclear test ban treaty. Also read: Zelensky alleges 'brutal Russian crime' in Ukraine after at least 49 killed in strike Putin mentioned the Burevestnik as he said that Moscow had successfully tested a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile. He said that the capabilities of the Burevestnik are unmatched. Putin also said that no one in the world in their right mind would use nuclear weapons against Russia and that potential enemies knew about Russia's nuclear arsenal. The Kremlin chief said there was no need to change Russia's nuclear doctrine, however, as any attack on Russia would provoke a split-second response with hundreds of nuclear missiles. On the nuclear doctrine, Putin said, "Do we need to change this? And why? Everything can be changed but I just don't see the need for it." "I think no person of sound mind and clear memory would think of using nuclear weapons against Russia," he said. Watch: Ex-German ambassador to NATO on war in Ukraine & impact of US Elections × Putin targets US Putin also accused the US of directing other countries on how to behave. In his annual keynote speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, in Sochi, Putin targeted the US and said, "All the time, we hear 'You must', 'You have to', 'We're seriously warning you'. Who are you anyway? What right do you have to warn anyone? Maybe it’s time you yourself got rid of your arrogance and stopped behaving that way towards the world." Also read: Russia to set up naval base in breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia Ukraine war not a 'territorial one' The Russian leader said that the conflict in Ukraine was "not a territorial" one and that Moscow has "no interests from the point of view of conquering some territories." In the aftermath of the war, Russia's army occupies large swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine, and Putin has formally annexed four Ukrainian regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Lugansk. Putin has consistently said that Ukrainian territory was historically Russian and questioned Ukrainian statehood. (With inputs from agencies) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

'No chance of survival': Putin's latest nuclear warning has the world on edge

After a declassified French defence report indicated the government hidden&nbsp;impact of nuclear testing in French Polynesia between 1966-1996, the French government held a round table meeting to discuss the issue.

A report by an online site Disclose revealed&nbsp;that radiation levels were allegedly two to ten times higher than estimated by France’s Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) in 2006 as it studied the radiation effects in Aldébaran in 1966, Encelade in 1971&nbsp;and Centaure in 1974.

Watch:

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According to the report, the Polynesian population was badly hit by the radiation caused by the Centaure bomb testing in July 1974 with almost the entire population badly hit.

According to Disclose, at least 63 Polynesian civilians have received compensation for the radiation exposure.

The meeting was attended by French President Emmanuel Macron. The French president called for a frank discussion on the subject amid allegations by Disclose. However, MP Moetai Brotherson who represents Polynesia refused to attend the event unless the government apologised.

The head of the region Edouard Fritch however welcomed Macron's move.

Disclose in its report had said that at least 11,000 victims allegedly received radiation doses in excess of 5 millisieverts which included 600 children under the age of 15 in Tahiti, Tureia and Gambier Islands.

France had reportedly carried out 193 nuclear tests between 1960 and 1996 on the atolls of Fangataufa and Mururoa.

The "Moruroa files" which was compiled in a two year-long investigation after interviewing several people in France and French Polynesia found that the military did not take preventive evacuation while conducting the tests, according to the declassified report&nbsp;

The investigation revealed that people living in Mangareva island in the Gambier archipelago had developed breast and thyroid cancer after the tests were conducted.

(With inputs from Agencies)

After a declassified French defence report indicated the government hidden impact of nuclear testing in French Polynesia between 1966-1996, the French government held a round table meeting to discuss the issue.

After a declassified French defence report indicated the government hidden impact of nuclear testing in French Polynesia between 1966-1996, the French government held a round table meeting to discuss the issue. A report by an online site Disclose revealed that radiation levels were allegedly two to ten times higher than estimated by France’s Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) in 2006 as it studied the radiation effects in Aldébaran in 1966, Encelade in 1971 and Centaure in 1974. Watch: According to the report, the Polynesian population was badly hit by the radiation caused by the Centaure bomb testing in July 1974 with almost the entire population badly hit. According to Disclose, at least 63 Polynesian civilians have received compensation for the radiation exposure. The meeting was attended by French President Emmanuel Macron. The French president called for a frank discussion on the subject amid allegations by Disclose. However, MP Moetai Brotherson who represents Polynesia refused to attend the event unless the government apologised. The head of the region Edouard Fritch however welcomed Macron's move. Disclose in its report had said that at least 11,000 victims allegedly received radiation doses in excess of 5 millisieverts which included 600 children under the age of 15 in Tahiti, Tureia and Gambier Islands. France had reportedly carried out 193 nuclear tests between 1960 and 1996 on the atolls of Fangataufa and Mururoa. The "Moruroa files" which was compiled in a two year-long investigation after interviewing several people in France and French Polynesia found that the military did not take preventive evacuation while conducting the tests, according to the declassified report The investigation revealed that people living in Mangareva island in the Gambier archipelago had developed breast and thyroid cancer after the tests were conducted. (With inputs from Agencies)

France holds discussion on nuclear testing in French Polynesia over declassified report

On 12 August, Pakistan asked India to sign a moratorium on nuclear testing. The United States was quick to follow with a recommendation that both countries sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). But the prospects for the treaty, always rejected by New Delhi, to put India on the defensive are once again dim.&nbsp;

Both Pakistan and the US were performing perfunctory rituals. Islamabad knows that there is virtually no possibility that India, which is concerned about the threat posed by China, will sign on this particular dotted line. It has gone through the motions for entirely different reasons: to deflect criticism that it is building the world&rsquo;s fastest growing stockpile of nuclear bombs; and to try and hang on to the notion that India and Pakistan are strategically inseparable. Washington is keeping a straight face while giving the treaty a dutiful nod but has in fact stopped putting pressure on India on this score.&nbsp;

The CTBT is destined to lie dormant for the foreseeable future because no one is really interested in it. Indian policy makers need not worry that a new momentum for its signature might be round the corner. There are good reasons for this.

&nbsp;First, there is no pressure for the CTBT because there is no momentum for testing. Tensions between India and Pakistan are no more than is usual in their up-and-down relationship. To be sure, Kashmir is turbulent again and New Delhi is not doing a great job of tackling it effectively; but there is neither a serious loss of control that might kindle Pakistani expectations, nor the likelihood of a repeat of Kargil.&nbsp;

Pakistan has burned its fingers on nuclear risk generation before in Kargil and discovered that it does not bring more than ephemeral benefits. Currently, there is some heat being generated in Northeast Asia, particularly after Pyongyang&rsquo;s launch of an undersea missile last week, but that again is &lsquo;normal&rsquo; for a country that is volatile but has always stayed well short of a serious crisis. Noticeably, the four North Korean tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016 have never produced a pro-CTBT wave.

Second, the US and others (notably Japan) periodically declare their faith in containing nuclear weapons without actually doing much about them. President Obama has done so little to follow up on his much-ballyhooed ambition to rid the world of nuclear weapons that his Nobel Peace Prize has long lost its shine. One respected commentator, Barry Blechman, has gone so far as to say that in the interests of &lsquo;decency,&rsquo; Obama should return the prize. For their part, Japanese leaders have balked at doing civilian nuclear business with India and advised it to sign the CTBT.&nbsp;Japan&#39;s sentiment can hardly be taken seriously by others since it rests on the belief system of a public that is happy to enjoy the security provided by the American nuclear umbrella.

Third, even as the CTBT mantra is periodically intoned in support of disarmament, most nuclear-armed states are in the process of actually doing the opposite. To cite just a few instances: over the next three decades, the United States is expected to modernize its nuclear arsenal and deploy its existing forces at a cost &ndash; still being debated &ndash; of about $1 trillion. Russia is building a new intercontinental ballistic missile, nuclear-armed drone submarines, and a space-based hypersonic strategic bomber. And China, which recently confirmed that it has tested a new rail-mobile missile capable of striking any target in the United States, has also carried out six tests of a hypersonic glide vehicle that can fly at up to ten times the speed of sound.&nbsp;

India, too, is dabbling with hypersonic technology, multiple warhead missiles and a wide range of weapons systems. The notion of a decline in the value of nuclear arms is illusory. As long as this remains true, states will find it politically difficult to give up testing.

Fourth, there is a growing conservative sentiment among major nuclear powers as is evident from national political trends in Britain, China, France, India, Russia, and the United States. Given the increasing focus on national security and fear of &lsquo;the other,&rsquo; howsoever defined, political leaders will find it hard to contemplate constraints on nuclear capacity.

Fifth, the CTBT has been on the table for almost two decades since 24 September 1996. A large number of countries have signed it, including China, Israel, and the United States, but these three, which signed it immediately after it was opened for signature, have yet to ratify it, leaving it close to becoming moribund twenty years later. There is thus a built-in inertia in the movement against testing. In any case, under the terms of the CTBT, it can enter into force only if all countries in a list of 44 with actual or potential capability are on board &ndash; and this includes India and other holdouts.

Ironically, the reluctance of India, Pakistan, and others to accede to the treaty is based on weak reasoning. The CTBT has an exit clause that allows a signatory to opt out if required by the &lsquo;supreme national interest.&rsquo; Hence the Russians, who have ratified the treaty, have not appeared unduly worried about its putative constraints. In India, another reason for not signing is said to be the need to refine the technical quality of the nation&rsquo;s arsenal. But history shows that nuclear weapons are effective deterrents not because their possessors are certain of their ability to hit the enemy, but because the enemy is not certain of avoiding the enormous pain they can cause. That is why small nuclear arsenals invariably deter much bigger ones.

Ultimately, it&rsquo;s fuzzy strategic thinking that holds several countries back from signing or ratifying the CTBT. Be that as it may, occasional efforts to leverage the CTBT need not worry Indian policy makers much.

The CTBT is destined to lie dormant for the foreseeable future because no one is really interested in it.

On 12 August, Pakistan asked India to sign a moratorium on nuclear testing. The United States was quick to follow with a recommendation that both countries sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). But the prospects for the treaty, always rejected by New Delhi, to put India on the defensive are once again dim. Both Pakistan and the US were performing perfunctory rituals. Islamabad knows that there is virtually no possibility that India, which is concerned about the threat posed by China, will sign on this particular dotted line. It has gone through the motions for entirely different reasons: to deflect criticism that it is building the world’s fastest growing stockpile of nuclear bombs; and to try and hang on to the notion that India and Pakistan are strategically inseparable. Washington is keeping a straight face while giving the treaty a dutiful nod but has in fact stopped putting pressure on India on this score. The CTBT is destined to lie dormant for the foreseeable future because no one is really interested in it. Indian policy makers need not worry that a new momentum for its signature might be round the corner. There are good reasons for this. First, there is no pressure for the CTBT because there is no momentum for testing. Tensions between India and Pakistan are no more than is usual in their up-and-down relationship. To be sure, Kashmir is turbulent again and New Delhi is not doing a great job of tackling it effectively; but there is neither a serious loss of control that might kindle Pakistani expectations, nor the likelihood of a repeat of Kargil. Pakistan has burned its fingers on nuclear risk generation before in Kargil and discovered that it does not bring more than ephemeral benefits. Currently, there is some heat being generated in Northeast Asia, particularly after Pyongyang’s launch of an undersea missile last week, but that again is ‘normal’ for a country that is volatile but has always stayed well short of a serious crisis. Noticeably, the four North Korean tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016 have never produced a pro-CTBT wave. Second, the US and others (notably Japan) periodically declare their faith in containing nuclear weapons without actually doing much about them. President Obama has done so little to follow up on his much-ballyhooed ambition to rid the world of nuclear weapons that his Nobel Peace Prize has long lost its shine. One respected commentator, Barry Blechman, has gone so far as to say that in the interests of ‘decency,’ Obama should return the prize. For their part, Japanese leaders have balked at doing civilian nuclear business with India and advised it to sign the CTBT. Japan's sentiment can hardly be taken seriously by others since it rests on the belief system of a public that is happy to enjoy the security provided by the American nuclear umbrella. Third, even as the CTBT mantra is periodically intoned in support of disarmament, most nuclear-armed states are in the process of actually doing the opposite. To cite just a few instances: over the next three decades, the United States is expected to modernize its nuclear arsenal and deploy its existing forces at a cost – still being debated – of about $1 trillion. Russia is building a new intercontinental ballistic missile, nuclear-armed drone submarines, and a space-based hypersonic strategic bomber. And China, which recently confirmed that it has tested a new rail-mobile missile capable of striking any target in the United States, has also carried out six tests of a hypersonic glide vehicle that can fly at up to ten times the speed of sound. India, too, is dabbling with hypersonic technology, multiple warhead missiles and a wide range of weapons systems. The notion of a decline in the value of nuclear arms is illusory. As long as this remains true, states will find it politically difficult to give up testing. Fourth, there is a growing conservative sentiment among major nuclear powers as is evident from national political trends in Britain, China, France, India, Russia, and the United States. Given the increasing focus on national security and fear of ‘the other,’ howsoever defined, political leaders will find it hard to contemplate constraints on nuclear capacity. Fifth, the CTBT has been on the table for almost two decades since 24 September 1996. A large number of countries have signed it, including China, Israel, and the United States, but these three, which signed it immediately after it was opened for signature, have yet to ratify it, leaving it close to becoming moribund twenty years later. There is thus a built-in inertia in the movement against testing. In any case, under the terms of the CTBT, it can enter into force only if all countries in a list of 44 with actual or potential capability are on board – and this includes India and other holdouts. Ironically, the reluctance of India, Pakistan, and others to accede to the treaty is based on weak reasoning. The CTBT has an exit clause that allows a signatory to opt out if required by the ‘supreme national interest.’ Hence the Russians, who have ratified the treaty, have not appeared unduly worried about its putative constraints. In India, another reason for not signing is said to be the need to refine the technical quality of the nation’s arsenal. But history shows that nuclear weapons are effective deterrents not because their possessors are certain of their ability to hit the enemy, but because the enemy is not certain of avoiding the enormous pain they can cause. That is why small nuclear arsenals invariably deter much bigger ones. Ultimately, it’s fuzzy strategic thinking that holds several countries back from signing or ratifying the CTBT. Be that as it may, occasional efforts to leverage the CTBT need not worry Indian policy makers much.

India and the CTBT ? no closer to signature

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