<p>A few days back, I was talking to one of the Pakistan Defence Experts on the panel of a renowned news channel over the issue of ceasefire violation at Line of Control. The Indian panelists were in anguish over the recent killings but, surprisingly, the Pakistani panelist who was a retired Lieutenant General mentioned repeatedly in his statement that Pakistan is nuclear capable and any adventure from Indian side will be answered by a nuclear missile.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Before we become a victim to these lies and deceits, we must understand the reality of Pakistan&rsquo;s nuclear programme.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>As per the statement of AQ Khan to Newsweek on 16 May 2011, Pakistan&rsquo;s nuclear programme started as a countermeasure of India&rsquo;s first nuclear test in 1974 but he is wrong. If we go back to study the nuclear program of Pakistan, we must start with their humiliating defeat in 1971. Then PM Mr Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto said that Pakistanis will have to make a nuclear bomb even if they have to eat grass.&nbsp; The entire blueprint of Project 706 or the Kahuta Research Laboratory (KRL) was ready as early as 1973 and the project actually kicked off in 1974. This was the start of a dirty mess created by Pakistan which is still haunting the world.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>To me the actual father of Pakistani Nuclear program was not AQ Khan, it was Dr Munir Ahmed Khan of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC).&nbsp; Munir was a true genius and fathered Pakistan&rsquo;s nuclear weapon programme using Plutonium. AQ Khan, who started Project 706, had the sole objective to develop Pakistan&rsquo;s own nuclear bomb using Uranium as fuel. And, finally, all the devices of Pakistan&rsquo;s Nuclear arsenal were Uranium based only.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Technically speaking, any nuclear fission device has two major parts. The Device consists of many parts, such as mechanical, electrical, electronic and the detonation mechanism in the body of the bomb is the first part, and the nuclear fuel is the second part. While the first part is not very difficult to obtain, Pakistan could create it easily in 1974 itself. The second part which is the nuclear fuel was the factor which delayed Pakistan&rsquo;s nuclear programme for another 10 years and they could be ready with their first device in 1984 only.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>To understand Pakistan&rsquo;s nuclear programme and the role of AQ Khan in this, we must understand the concept of nuclear fuel. Uranium has several isotopes and the main fissile isotope which acts towards the generation of energy or creation of nuclear bomb is Uranium-235 which is only .5% to .7% in the naturally obtained Uranium. The energy grade uranium has 4-6% of U-235 while in the weapon-grade uranium, the concentration should be more than 90% and that was the main concern for Pakistan.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The equipment required to make weapon-grade uranium is an ultra-high-speed gas centrifuge and the technology was not available with Pakistan. The centrifuge is required to spin the gaseous form of Uranium Hexafluoride at more than 100,000 RPM to generate fissile material. &nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>This was the time when AQ Khan played a vital role. Though he was a nuclear scientist, he was working as a translator in URENCO at Belgium and Netherlands. He approached the Pakistan Government and asked to help them in making the bomb. As per Mr Kuldeep Nayyar, the Pakistan Government was not aware of him and, thus, the ISI was made to run a full background check on him.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Ironically, the ISI declared him incompetent for any nuclear weapon development but still he made his forays in the government set up through his connects in the PAEC and successfully arranged a meeting with Mr Bhutto. Somehow, he was successful in convincing the top leadership and AQ Khan was given the charge of Kahuta Research laboratory after he returned to Pakistan from the Netherlands.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Khan knew the importance of Pakistan army in the political scenario; he had seen many coups. Hence, to secure his project from any political disturbance, he made this project separated from PAEC and ran it in close connection with the Pakistan Army.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Over the next few years, he established administrative setups at various shell companies in Dubai and the Middle East to route the centrifuge technology. The designs, calculations and blueprints of these centrifuges were stolen by AQ Khan from URENCO and transferred to Pakistan through different international routes. Unconfirmed reports say that certain Middle Eastern Islamic countries also helped him in this on the pretext of having a dedicated Islamic Bomb.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>By 1980, Pakistan had developed some prototype centrifuges for uranium enrichment which were called as PakSat-1. They developed the centrifuges further and by 1984 could have enough fissile material required for their first bomb.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>I would like to mention here that there were two organisations working in Pakistan towards the development of a nuclear bomb. One was KRL under the Pak Army and AQ Khan which was making a Uranium-based bomb; the other was PAEC itself which continued its 1972 program of the Plutonium-based bomb and established its facilities in Khushab, Jorarabad. By late nineties, Pakistan had the design and capability to produce its Plutonium based device too, however, all the existing devices with Pakistan are Uranium-based and the Plutonium-based device was limited to experiments only.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The bomb was in the making and Pakistan needed the missile technology to drive this project too. Its ally and friend America refused to give any technology to Pakistan on the pretext that it could fall into the wrong hands and the eyes moved to their other friends- China and North Korea.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Under Kim-Jong-Il, North Korea was successful in making its missiles with the help of China and was desperately looking for someone who could help them achieve their mission. When Pak PM Benazir Bhutto visited Pyongyang in 1990, certain secret agreements were signed between both the countries and some classified information about the designs of device and centrifuges was shared with North Korea in 1993 in exchange of missile technology. This missile technology formed the base of most of the missiles of Pakistan which surprisingly resemble North Korean missiles.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>It was not only North Korea but Iran too. When in 2003, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspected Iran and found a large uranium enrichment facility, Iranian government revealed that the centrifuges were obtained from a foreign intermediary through URENCO but surprisingly the design was exactly same as PakSat-1 centrifuge which was invented by Pakistan. Some of the Pakistani centrifuges which were transferred to Iran in 1989 were also recovered.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Pakistan was expanding his black market for other countries too and the key person in this was AQ Khan who was working closely with every government and military chief of Pakistan. In 2003 itself IAEA decided to dismantle Libya&rsquo;s nuclear program and to their surprise, they found Pakistani PakSat-1 centrifuges in one of the Libyan uranium enrichment facility. Libyan government openly accepted that they bought this technology from the black market and the supplier was Pakistan. Imagine had that dismantling not been done, the nuclear bomb would have gone into the hands of Islamic terrorists by now as entire Libya is facing turmoils of war with ISIS.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The cost paid for these materials to Pakistan by North Korea, Iran or Libya were not known. It was also not known if Pak government had sold these designs to any other country too. However, as per rough estimates, the payments went into billions of US Dollars which were reportedly used by Pakistan in spreading terror network in Indian and Afghanistan.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>In 2004, Pakistan government dismissed AQ Khan and initiated an inquiry against him and, ironically, his military connects saved him when Parvez Musharraf took over the country and issued him a presidential pardon. The Pak government said that AQ Khan ran this nuclear black market purely on his own. However, the fact is that he was awarded the highest civilian decoration of Pakistan- &ldquo;Nishan-E-Imtiyaz&rdquo; twice in 1996 and 1999 which proves the undeterred support of Pakistani government to him.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)</em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>


Pakistan's nuclear black market extended through N.Korea, Libya, Iran

A few days back, I was talking to one of the Pakistan Defence Experts on the panel of a renowned news channel over the issue of ceasefire violation at Line of Control. The Indian panelists were in anguish over the recent killings but, surprisingly, the Pakistani panelist who was a retired Lieutenant General mentioned repeatedly in his statement that Pakistan is nuclear capable and any adventure from Indian side will be answered by a nuclear missile. Before we become a victim to these lies and deceits, we must understand the reality of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. As per the statement of AQ Khan to Newsweek on 16 May 2011, Pakistan’s nuclear programme started as a countermeasure of India’s first nuclear test in 1974 but he is wrong. If we go back to study the nuclear program of Pakistan, we must start with their humiliating defeat in 1971. Then PM Mr Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto said that Pakistanis will have to make a nuclear bomb even if they have to eat grass. The entire blueprint of Project 706 or the Kahuta Research Laboratory (KRL) was ready as early as 1973 and the project actually kicked off in 1974. This was the start of a dirty mess created by Pakistan which is still haunting the world. To me the actual father of Pakistani Nuclear program was not AQ Khan, it was Dr Munir Ahmed Khan of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC). Munir was a true genius and fathered Pakistan’s nuclear weapon programme using Plutonium. AQ Khan, who started Project 706, had the sole objective to develop Pakistan’s own nuclear bomb using Uranium as fuel. And, finally, all the devices of Pakistan’s Nuclear arsenal were Uranium based only. Technically speaking, any nuclear fission device has two major parts. The Device consists of many parts, such as mechanical, electrical, electronic and the detonation mechanism in the body of the bomb is the first part, and the nuclear fuel is the second part. While the first part is not very difficult to obtain, Pakistan could create it easily in 1974 itself. The second part which is the nuclear fuel was the factor which delayed Pakistan’s nuclear programme for another 10 years and they could be ready with their first device in 1984 only. To understand Pakistan’s nuclear programme and the role of AQ Khan in this, we must understand the concept of nuclear fuel. Uranium has several isotopes and the main fissile isotope which acts towards the generation of energy or creation of nuclear bomb is Uranium-235 which is only .5% to .7% in the naturally obtained Uranium. The energy grade uranium has 4-6% of U-235 while in the weapon-grade uranium, the concentration should be more than 90% and that was the main concern for Pakistan. The equipment required to make weapon-grade uranium is an ultra-high-speed gas centrifuge and the technology was not available with Pakistan. The centrifuge is required to spin the gaseous form of Uranium Hexafluoride at more than 100,000 RPM to generate fissile material. This was the time when AQ Khan played a vital role. Though he was a nuclear scientist, he was working as a translator in URENCO at Belgium and Netherlands. He approached the Pakistan Government and asked to help them in making the bomb. As per Mr Kuldeep Nayyar, the Pakistan Government was not aware of him and, thus, the ISI was made to run a full background check on him. Ironically, the ISI declared him incompetent for any nuclear weapon development but still he made his forays in the government set up through his connects in the PAEC and successfully arranged a meeting with Mr Bhutto. Somehow, he was successful in convincing the top leadership and AQ Khan was given the charge of Kahuta Research laboratory after he returned to Pakistan from the Netherlands. Khan knew the importance of Pakistan army in the political scenario; he had seen many coups. Hence, to secure his project from any political disturbance, he made this project separated from PAEC and ran it in close connection with the Pakistan Army. Over the next few years, he established administrative setups at various shell companies in Dubai and the Middle East to route the centrifuge technology. The designs, calculations and blueprints of these centrifuges were stolen by AQ Khan from URENCO and transferred to Pakistan through different international routes. Unconfirmed reports say that certain Middle Eastern Islamic countries also helped him in this on the pretext of having a dedicated Islamic Bomb. By 1980, Pakistan had developed some prototype centrifuges for uranium enrichment which were called as PakSat-1. They developed the centrifuges further and by 1984 could have enough fissile material required for their first bomb. I would like to mention here that there were two organisations working in Pakistan towards the development of a nuclear bomb. One was KRL under the Pak Army and AQ Khan which was making a Uranium-based bomb; the other was PAEC itself which continued its 1972 program of the Plutonium-based bomb and established its facilities in Khushab, Jorarabad. By late nineties, Pakistan had the design and capability to produce its Plutonium based device too, however, all the existing devices with Pakistan are Uranium-based and the Plutonium-based device was limited to experiments only. The bomb was in the making and Pakistan needed the missile technology to drive this project too. Its ally and friend America refused to give any technology to Pakistan on the pretext that it could fall into the wrong hands and the eyes moved to their other friends- China and North Korea. Under Kim-Jong-Il, North Korea was successful in making its missiles with the help of China and was desperately looking for someone who could help them achieve their mission. When Pak PM Benazir Bhutto visited Pyongyang in 1990, certain secret agreements were signed between both the countries and some classified information about the designs of device and centrifuges was shared with North Korea in 1993 in exchange of missile technology. This missile technology formed the base of most of the missiles of Pakistan which surprisingly resemble North Korean missiles. It was not only North Korea but Iran too. When in 2003, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspected Iran and found a large uranium enrichment facility, Iranian government revealed that the centrifuges were obtained from a foreign intermediary through URENCO but surprisingly the design was exactly same as PakSat-1 centrifuge which was invented by Pakistan. Some of the Pakistani centrifuges which were transferred to Iran in 1989 were also recovered. Pakistan was expanding his black market for other countries too and the key person in this was AQ Khan who was working closely with every government and military chief of Pakistan. In 2003 itself IAEA decided to dismantle Libya’s nuclear program and to their surprise, they found Pakistani PakSat-1 centrifuges in one of the Libyan uranium enrichment facility. Libyan government openly accepted that they bought this technology from the black market and the supplier was Pakistan. Imagine had that dismantling not been done, the nuclear bomb would have gone into the hands of Islamic terrorists by now as entire Libya is facing turmoils of war with ISIS. The cost paid for these materials to Pakistan by North Korea, Iran or Libya were not known. It was also not known if Pak government had sold these designs to any other country too. However, as per rough estimates, the payments went into billions of US Dollars which were reportedly used by Pakistan in spreading terror network in Indian and Afghanistan. In 2004, Pakistan government dismissed AQ Khan and initiated an inquiry against him and, ironically, his military connects saved him when Parvez Musharraf took over the country and issued him a presidential pardon. The Pak government said that AQ Khan ran this nuclear black market purely on his own. However, the fact is that he was awarded the highest civilian decoration of Pakistan- “Nishan-E-Imtiyaz” twice in 1996 and 1999 which proves the undeterred support of Pakistani government to him. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: Pakistan's nuclear black market endangers the world

<p>The use of nuclear capability as insurance for its defence was cited as the main reason by every country, which added nuclear weapons to its armoury, ever since it was invented. It spiralled into a competition, which came under some control after the realisation of its devastation in Japan, and potentials of mutually assured destruction (MAD).</p>

<p>When Israel went nuclear, it developed a survival capability to dissuade all hostile neighbouring Arab countries. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) required checking proliferation of nuclear weapon technology was selectively leaked by some irresponsible countries, leading to a situation where humanity suffers from a threat of nuclear blackmailing by states, as well as militants if tactical nukes accidentally fall into their hand. Interestingly, both countries accused of nuclear blackmailing happen to be Frontline states of China.</p>

<p><strong>North Korea</strong></p>

<p>When President Trump started his visit to Asia, after a series of provocative statements by the US and North Korea, it was being speculated that some concrete action plan will emerge in his handling of North Korea. During this marathon visit, as President Trump came closer to reality, it is quite clear now that it will end with no worthwhile option on the table, except the efforts to outsource the problem to China again, (which is also part of the problem) despite being disappointed earlier, with reasonable suspicion that it will not work.</p>

<p>North Korea has its own point of view for all its missiles/nuclear tests/ misadventures so far, which revolves around its own security concerns and survival of regime of Kim. It justifies it as a defensive measure against the backdrop of US threat of past regime changes efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and other countries not following its dictate, as they happened to be Non-nuclear/incapable of threatening some part/colony of US.</p>

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<h5>North Korea has been able to create a capability which dissuades the strongest military power US (having all instruments of military deterrence) to take any military action.</h5>
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<p>The threat from US regional allies has also been given as an excuse. The Korean War is also an unforgettable historical event when the US might be used against them. The blackmailing part is that their leadership is ready to endanger lives of its own people, by continuing with nuclear tests, despite mountain collapsing, to save the current autocratic regime, using &lsquo;Hate America&rsquo; theme as the rallying point.</p>

<p>By doing so they expect that the world should behave on their terms to save lives of people of other countries, despite the risk of suicidal destruction of their own country, like in case of fidayeen attacks. Sanctions had little effect to the extent that North Korea is now signalling to be ready to talk to the US, but without preconditions.</p>

<p>The reality, therefore, is that by getting the missile and nuclear technology from some country/countries who would have obviously violated NPT, North Korea has been able to create a capability which dissuades the strongest military power US (having all instruments of military deterrence) to take any military action.&nbsp;It is also using its nuclear capability claims, to threaten Japan and South Korea and blackmail the US to talk without preconditions.</p>

<p><strong>Pakistan</strong></p>

<p>Pakistan has also been using this Nuclear Blackmailing/Dissuasion Theory against India for quite some time. It acquired nuclear and missile capability from some country/countries, which must have violated NPT at that time, and the world community ignored it. Today, Pakistan is hosting and training a maximum number of terrorist organisations in the world. It blatantly launches the proxy war against India through militants and has been able to dissuade India to use its conventional capability to prevent it, by nuclear blackmail/ threat to use nukes.</p>

<p>It has thus been able to prevent full use of hard power by India, against the inhuman use of proxy war by militants on innocent people; hence this theory seems to be working.</p>

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<h5>The danger of this technology passing into the hand of terrorists to share the technology and steal some fissile material, sufficient for mini nuke/ dirty bomb is not impossible in future.</h5>
</blockquote>
</div>

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<div class="share-blockquote"><a class="twitter popup" href="http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=The danger of this technology passing into the hand of terrorists to share the technology and steal some fissile material, sufficient for mini nuke/ dirty bomb is not impossible in future." target="_blank"><i class="fa fa-share">&nbsp;</i></a></div>
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<p>It is surprising that the whole world rightly criticises North Korea, but not many are talking of Pakistani tactical nukes, despite the fact that the risk of tactical nuclear/dirty bomb sneaking to militants is much more from Pakistan. The stage is slowly setting in Pakistan, for the next level of terrorism with tactical nukes/dirty bombs.</p>

<p>The danger of this technology passing into the hand of terrorists by coercion of scientists/security personals/handlers, to share the technology and steal some fissile material, sufficient for mini nuke/ dirty bomb is not impossible in future.</p>

<p>The Nuclear Security Summit held in the US on 02 Apr 2016, exhibited grave concern of global powers, about the danger of mini-nukes falling in hands of terrorist organisations. A possibility of Pakistan covertly passing the tactical nuclear technology/ dirty bomb to terrorists to explode it in India, as part of a proxy war, and later deny it, is an option which cannot be ruled out, as its overt use by their Army may be difficult to be justified to the world community.</p>

<p><strong>Implications</strong></p>

<p>Despite best efforts a worthwhile solution to control unilateral missile and nuclear tests by North Korea has been found by World community, as the sanctions alone are unlikely to yield results, may be due to selective leakages.</p>

<p>A status quo in this regard will render world helpless, and it will become a new normal. Surprisingly, when newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister is talking of use of tactical nuclear weapons against India, not much criticism appeared on world media (perhaps many countries still feel that it is a local affair). Let me enumerate some of the implications of silent acceptance by the global community of this &lsquo;Nuclear Blackmailing Theory&rsquo;.</p>

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<h5>There is a need to collectively have some global mechanism in place to prevent miniaturisation of nukes/tactical nukes/dirty bombs over and above the existing UN conventions.</h5>
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<p>Iran may be encouraged to go nuclear looking at the fate of Iraq, and over arming of Saudi Arabia.</p>

<p>Japan may go in for creating its own military capabilities and later go nuclear.</p>

<p>South Korea may ask for tactical nukes from the US to protect itself from North Korea if China and Russia are not able to push North Korea to negations table.</p>

<p>Vietnam may also get an idea to request for nuclear technology.</p>

<p>India may have to speed up enlarging stockpile of existing nukes, not to suffer disadvantage on the deterrence capability, despite being well placed to respond to any tactical nukes threat of Pakistan. There is a need to collectively have some global mechanism in place to prevent miniaturisation of nukes/tactical nukes/dirty bombs over and above the existing UN conventions.</p>

<p>There is a need to implement some mechanism towards safety and security of nukes and accountability of fissile material. While a large number of analysts may be convinced that North Korea is the biggest challenge in terms of nuclear blackmailing, but in my opinion, the bigger global challenge is yet to come in the form of tactical nukes/dirty bombs/biological and chemical weapons being acquired by terrorists.</p>

<p>No country should assume that it&rsquo;s safe forever from blackmailing by terrorists having acquired such capability, even if it appears fiction today.</p>


No doubt North Korea is the challenge in terms of nuclear blackmailing but the bigger global challenge is yet to come in the form of nuclear weapons possessed by terrorists.

The use of nuclear capability as insurance for its defence was cited as the main reason by every country, which added nuclear weapons to its armoury, ever since it was invented. It spiralled into a competition, which came under some control after the realisation of its devastation in Japan, and potentials of mutually assured destruction (MAD). When Israel went nuclear, it developed a survival capability to dissuade all hostile neighbouring Arab countries. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) required checking proliferation of nuclear weapon technology was selectively leaked by some irresponsible countries, leading to a situation where humanity suffers from a threat of nuclear blackmailing by states, as well as militants if tactical nukes accidentally fall into their hand. Interestingly, both countries accused of nuclear blackmailing happen to be Frontline states of China. North Korea When President Trump started his visit to Asia, after a series of provocative statements by the US and North Korea, it was being speculated that some concrete action plan will emerge in his handling of North Korea. During this marathon visit, as President Trump came closer to reality, it is quite clear now that it will end with no worthwhile option on the table, except the efforts to outsource the problem to China again, (which is also part of the problem) despite being disappointed earlier, with reasonable suspicion that it will not work. North Korea has its own point of view for all its missiles/nuclear tests/ misadventures so far, which revolves around its own security concerns and survival of regime of Kim. It justifies it as a defensive measure against the backdrop of US threat of past regime changes efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and other countries not following its dictate, as they happened to be Non-nuclear/incapable of threatening some part/colony of US. North Korea has been able to create a capability which dissuades the strongest military power US (having all instruments of military deterrence) to take any military action. × The threat from US regional allies has also been given as an excuse. The Korean War is also an unforgettable historical event when the US might be used against them. The blackmailing part is that their leadership is ready to endanger lives of its own people, by continuing with nuclear tests, despite mountain collapsing, to save the current autocratic regime, using ‘Hate America’ theme as the rallying point. By doing so they expect that the world should behave on their terms to save lives of people of other countries, despite the risk of suicidal destruction of their own country, like in case of fidayeen attacks. Sanctions had little effect to the extent that North Korea is now signalling to be ready to talk to the US, but without preconditions. The reality, therefore, is that by getting the missile and nuclear technology from some country/countries who would have obviously violated NPT, North Korea has been able to create a capability which dissuades the strongest military power US (having all instruments of military deterrence) to take any military action. It is also using its nuclear capability claims, to threaten Japan and South Korea and blackmail the US to talk without preconditions. Pakistan Pakistan has also been using this Nuclear Blackmailing/Dissuasion Theory against India for quite some time. It acquired nuclear and missile capability from some country/countries, which must have violated NPT at that time, and the world community ignored it. Today, Pakistan is hosting and training a maximum number of terrorist organisations in the world. It blatantly launches the proxy war against India through militants and has been able to dissuade India to use its conventional capability to prevent it, by nuclear blackmail/ threat to use nukes. It has thus been able to prevent full use of hard power by India, against the inhuman use of proxy war by militants on innocent people; hence this theory seems to be working. The danger of this technology passing into the hand of terrorists to share the technology and steal some fissile material, sufficient for mini nuke/ dirty bomb is not impossible in future. × It is surprising that the whole world rightly criticises North Korea, but not many are talking of Pakistani tactical nukes, despite the fact that the risk of tactical nuclear/dirty bomb sneaking to militants is much more from Pakistan. The stage is slowly setting in Pakistan, for the next level of terrorism with tactical nukes/dirty bombs. The danger of this technology passing into the hand of terrorists by coercion of scientists/security personals/handlers, to share the technology and steal some fissile material, sufficient for mini nuke/ dirty bomb is not impossible in future. The Nuclear Security Summit held in the US on 02 Apr 2016, exhibited grave concern of global powers, about the danger of mini-nukes falling in hands of terrorist organisations. A possibility of Pakistan covertly passing the tactical nuclear technology/ dirty bomb to terrorists to explode it in India, as part of a proxy war, and later deny it, is an option which cannot be ruled out, as its overt use by their Army may be difficult to be justified to the world community. Implications Despite best efforts a worthwhile solution to control unilateral missile and nuclear tests by North Korea has been found by World community, as the sanctions alone are unlikely to yield results, may be due to selective leakages. A status quo in this regard will render world helpless, and it will become a new normal. Surprisingly, when newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister is talking of use of tactical nuclear weapons against India, not much criticism appeared on world media (perhaps many countries still feel that it is a local affair). Let me enumerate some of the implications of silent acceptance by the global community of this ‘Nuclear Blackmailing Theory’. There is a need to collectively have some global mechanism in place to prevent miniaturisation of nukes/tactical nukes/dirty bombs over and above the existing UN conventions. × Iran may be encouraged to go nuclear looking at the fate of Iraq, and over arming of Saudi Arabia. Japan may go in for creating its own military capabilities and later go nuclear. South Korea may ask for tactical nukes from the US to protect itself from North Korea if China and Russia are not able to push North Korea to negations table. Vietnam may also get an idea to request for nuclear technology. India may have to speed up enlarging stockpile of existing nukes, not to suffer disadvantage on the deterrence capability, despite being well placed to respond to any tactical nukes threat of Pakistan. There is a need to collectively have some global mechanism in place to prevent miniaturisation of nukes/tactical nukes/dirty bombs over and above the existing UN conventions. There is a need to implement some mechanism towards safety and security of nukes and accountability of fissile material. While a large number of analysts may be convinced that North Korea is the biggest challenge in terms of nuclear blackmailing, but in my opinion, the bigger global challenge is yet to come in the form of tactical nukes/dirty bombs/biological and chemical weapons being acquired by terrorists. No country should assume that it’s safe forever from blackmailing by terrorists having acquired such capability, even if it appears fiction today.

Is nuclear blackmailing going to be a new normal?

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