Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on May 3rd, 2019.

India Election Watch; May 3rd, 2019

The Lok Sabha election 2019 is underway and about to witness its 5th phase on 12th of May. Various political parties in India keeps on targeting dynasty rule from a long period. But will this parties having dynasty rule can win this election?

IEW: Victory assured for political dynasties?

The Lok Sabha election 2019 is underway and about to witness its 5th phase on 6th of May.

India Election Watch: Watch top election stories

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes.

In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened?

The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem.

The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42 per cent of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13 per cent believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53 per cent&nbsp;of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17 per cent were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favour of Modi and the BJP. 
 
The Pulwama effect and populist sops

The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister.

In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3 per cent. This has risen to a high of 26 per cent. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history.

At the start of 2019, 37 per cent of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31 per cent felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election. 
 
Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters.

By March 7, 2019, 45 per cent people reported improved living standards and only 22 per cent said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51 per cent respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36 per cent on January 1. The combination of sops to voter and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi.

In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favour.

Rahul Gandhi - Modi's best friend

At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23 per cent on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8 per cent

Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favour, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019.

The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favouring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment.

Banana peels still remain

In India, the anti-incumbency factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27 per cent wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20 per cent, a still significant figure.

Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42 per cent to 47 per cent. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee.

In 2014, people voted for non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetisation, as well as, the imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress.

In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one.

In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament.

A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path.

(This article was originally published on The Fair Observer. Read the <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/narendra-modi-bjp-win-indian-election-news-south-asia-world-news-today-39084/">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer.

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes. In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened? The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem. The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42 per cent of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13 per cent believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53 per cent of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17 per cent were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favour of Modi and the BJP. The Pulwama effect and populist sops The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister. In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3 per cent. This has risen to a high of 26 per cent. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history. At the start of 2019, 37 per cent of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31 per cent felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election. Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters. By March 7, 2019, 45 per cent people reported improved living standards and only 22 per cent said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51 per cent respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36 per cent on January 1. The combination of sops to voter and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi. In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favour. Rahul Gandhi - Modi's best friend At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23 per cent on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8 per cent Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favour, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019. The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favouring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment. Banana peels still remain In India, the anti-incumbency factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27 per cent wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20 per cent, a still significant figure. Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42 per cent to 47 per cent. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee. In 2014, people voted for non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetisation, as well as, the imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress. In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one. In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament. A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path. (This article was originally published on The Fair Observer. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Understanding the 2019 Indian elections

This segment of India Election Watch brings to you the story of veteran politicians. Watch this video to know about parliamentarians with most terms.

India Election Watch: All you need to know about parliamentarians with most terms

Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on May 1st, 2019.

India Election Watch; May 1st, 2019

Congress writes to TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) chief, seeks support for Rahul Gandhi. Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: Congress seeks TRS support for Rahul Gandhi

In this edition of WION's Know Your Candidate, we feature Arjun Ram Meghwal. Know more about him by watching this video.

India Election Watch: Know Your Candidate, who is Arjun Ram Meghwal?

While addressing a public rally in Uttar Pradesh’s Barabanki today, Congress President Rahul Gandhi took jibe at PM Modi and said, “Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav’s controller is in the hands of PM Modi. Modi can’t suppress me, Modi can suppress BSP and SP.” Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: PM Modi can suppress BSP-SP but not me, says Rahul Gandhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday attacked the troika of Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party at a rally here while skipping any mention of Ram Temple. Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: Prime Minister Modi campaigns in UP, MP

Rally roster for top leaders for May 1st, 2019. Watch more to know.

India Election Watch: Rally roster for top leaders for May 1st, 2019

This segment of India Election Watch brings to you top election headlines of the day.

''Nation's self-respect gone up in last 5 years,'' says PM Modi in Ayodhya rally. Watch this complete video to know more.

Lok Sabha Election 2019: ''Nation's self-respect has gone up in last 5 years,'' says PM Modi

In this segment of WION Know, What does high voter turnout mean?

What does high voter turnout mean?

Fiercely violence reported in West Bengal on fourth phase of Lok Sabha Election 2019. Watch this video to know more about Phase 4.

LS Polls 2019: Fiercely violence reported in West Bengal on fourth phase of election

Home Ministry sent notice to Rahul Gandhi on his citizenship. Asked for his reply within 15 days. Watch video to know more.

Home Ministry of India issues notice to Congress President Rahul Gandhi over citizenship

This segment of WION brings to you top stories of the morning from across the globe. Watch this video to get updated with the latest information.

WION Speed News: Watch top national and international news of the morning, April 29th 2019

Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on 29th April 2019.

India Election Watch; 29th April 2019

In this segment of India Election Watch, analysing the 4th phase of Lok Sabha election with concerned experts. Watch video to know more.

IEW: Phase 4 of Lok Sabha polls ends

In Lok Sabha Polls 2019, 17 seats of Maharashtra are in the fray in fourth phase.

LS Polls: 17 seats of Maharashtra in the fray in fourth phase of Lok Sabha Polls

In this segment of India Election Watch, analysing the concern and answering a big question; will regional parties like TMC, BJD be kingmakers?

IEW: Will regional parties like TMC, BJD be kingmakers?

The focus of electioneering will shift to the battleground Hindi heartland states in the fifth and sixth phases of the general elections, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi planning saturation campaigning in the region.

IEW: Can Congress gain in the Hindi heartland?

In this segment of India Election Watch. Watch; the 4th phase of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been summed up, though it had witnessed violence in various provinces in West Bengal.

IEW: Violence reported in West Bengal's Asansol amid 4th phase polling

In this segment of India Election Watch. Watch as the 4th phase of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been summed up it turns out to be a high voter turnout. So what does it mean?

IEW: What does high voter turnout means?

In this video, know which candidates' fate is on claim in Phase 4 of LS Polls 2019.

LS Polls 2019: Know which candidates' fate on claim in Phase 4

Watch WION in an exclusive conversation with Senior journalist KS Dakshinamurthy.

Lok Sabha election 2019: WION in an exclusive conversation with Senior journalist KS Dakshinamurthy

The 4th phase of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been summed up, though it had witnessed violence in various provinces in West Bengal.

Lok Sabha election 2019: EC asks police to lodge FIR against BJP's Babul Supriyo

The 4th phase of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been summed up. Congress in the assembly elections last year gained momentum upon which they were building their path to win General elections 2019. But is that so?

Lok Sabha election 2019: Will Congress' assembly poll momentum work?

The Election Commission of India personnels is reaching far-flung areas of the nation to conduct smooth polls and making sure that every vote must cast. Watch video to know more.

Lok Sabha election 2019: ECI personnel reach far-flung areas to make every vote count

The 4th phase of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been summed up and here are the stats for the same. Watch video to know more.

LoK Sabha election 2019: Everything you need to know about 4th phase polling

The 4th phase of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been summed up and had witnessed various celebrities in the queue to cast their vote. Watch video to know more.

Lok Sabha election 2019: Stars queue up to vote in Mumbai city for 4th phase

lok-sabha-election-2019

Lok Sabha Election 2019, News on Lok Sabha Election 2019, stories on Lok Sabha Election 2019, articles on Lok Sabha Election 2019, Lok Sabha Election 2019 stories at Wion, Lok Sabha Election 2019 news, Lok Sabha Election 2019 latest news

lok sabha-election-2019

India Election Watch; May 3rd, 2019

IEW: Victory assured for political dynasties?

India Election Watch: Watch top election stories

Understanding the 2019 Indian elections

India Election Watch: All you need to know about parliamentarians with most terms

India Election Watch; May 1st, 2019

India Election Watch: Congress seeks TRS support for Rahul Gandhi

India Election Watch: Know Your Candidate, who is Arjun Ram Meghwal?

India Election Watch: PM Modi can suppress BSP-SP but not me, says Rahul Gandhi

India Election Watch: Prime Minister Modi campaigns in UP, MP

India Election Watch: Rally roster for top leaders for May 1st, 2019

India Election Watch: Watch top election stories

Lok Sabha Election 2019: ''Nation's self-respect has gone up in last 5 years,'' says PM Modi

What does high voter turnout mean?

LS Polls 2019: Fiercely violence reported in West Bengal on fourth phase of election

Home Ministry of India issues notice to Congress President Rahul Gandhi over citizenship

WION Speed News: Watch top national and international news of the morning, April 29th 2019

India Election Watch; 29th April 2019

IEW: Phase 4 of Lok Sabha polls ends

LS Polls: 17 seats of Maharashtra in the fray in fourth phase of Lok Sabha Polls

IEW: Will regional parties like TMC, BJD be kingmakers?

IEW: Can Congress gain in the Hindi heartland?

IEW: Violence reported in West Bengal's Asansol amid 4th phase polling

IEW: What does high voter turnout means?

LS Polls 2019: Know which candidates' fate on claim in Phase 4

Lok Sabha election 2019: WION in an exclusive conversation with Senior journalist KS Dakshinamurthy