On 24th February 2022, the world fundamentally changed when Vladamir Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision destabilised the global status quo: Europe as a continent had moved on from full-scale warfare and the new centre of geopolitical tension was China. Policymakers, across the world, had failed to gauge the extent of Putin’s expansionism. Despite his illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula back in 2014, countries like Germany were hooked to Russian gas and UK was home to the dark money of Russian oligarchs. The miscalculations didn’t end there. Whereas most expected Ukraine to fall within, at best, weeks the conflict is now well into its fourth month. The chaotic affair, in an already pandemic-induced stressed world, has forced every nation to fend for itself. Some like Sri Lanka have already collapsed under the crushing weight of debt whereas others like Turkey face unprecedented inflation. Geopolitics has started reflecting this reality; Germany has started militarising, NATO has a new purpose, China-Russia engagement has shot up, Middle-east’s cold tensions are subduing and much more.&nbsp;

The only region that hasn’t made headlines in terms of dramatic shifts in foreign policy are former Soviet Republics of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. All of these countries are under authoritarian setups which draw patronage from Kremlin. With the Ukraine war, Putin doesn’t have either the time or resources to keep these regimes afloat. Smelling blood, neighbours like Turkey and China have moved in rapidly to fill in the power vacuum. This includes increasing defence engagement, accelerating decadal goals and bolstering trade talks. The region is going through unprecedented churning which includes, for the first time since the days of the Russian empire, the possibility of it moving away from Moscow’s diktats.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<h2>India and Central Asia</h2>

Post-independence, India’s primary engagement with Central Asia was largely defined by its two western neighbours, Pakistan and Afghanistan. During the 1990s, Central Asian countries played an important role in maintaining the anti-Taliban coalition, the Northern Alliance. India had supported the group to keep a check on terror threats from the Taliban regime. However, as New Delhi has expanded its worldview, the former Soviet Republics are approached with more evolved goals. They are now looked upon as a means to diversify energy needs and provide an overland route to Europe. Apart from this, the Stans also have huge deposits of rare earth elements, host one of India’s few overseas military bases (in Tajikistan) and are among emerging markets where Indian businesses can grow.&nbsp;

This changing attitude was reflected in Connect Central Asia policy of 2012. The idea was to bypass the Russians and have a more independent relationship with the region. The primary problem with the policy was establishing connectivity with the region, given it was landlocked and Pakistan blocked New Delhi’s access. This challenge was addressed with investments in the Chahbahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor. These projects mixed with the Ashgabat agreement&nbsp;provided India with an alternative path. However, because of sanctions on Iran, the partner India was looking at to go around Pakistan, the projects have faced multiple delays. In the meanwhile, China kept increasing its influence in the region on the back of its Belt and Road Initiative.&nbsp;

<h2>Ukraine Conflict and Russia’s loosening grip</h2>

Since the beginning of the conflict Central Asian countries have maintained strategic neutrality leaning away from Kremlin. In March itself, Uzbekistan’s then foreign minister Abdulaziz Kamilov called for the territorial integrity of Kyiv&nbsp;saying, “We recognize the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”. Kazakhstan went even further as their First Deputy Chief of Staff of the President’s Office, Timur Suleimenov said, "Of course, Russia wanted us to be more on their side. But Kazakhstan respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine. We did not recognise and will not recognise the Crimea situation and neither the Donbas situation because the UN does not recognise them. We will only respect decisions taken at the level of the United Nations”&nbsp;Even amongst Central Asian nations, this position by Kazakhstan stands out. Firstly it shares a direct border with Russia and is fairly resource-rich, making it about as important as Ukraine in terms of Moscow's sphere of influence. Secondly, earlier this year when Nur-Sultan had seen massive protests because of inflation and popular resentment it was Russia who helped the regime get the situation under control. 

Moreover, Putin has also failed to show&nbsp;he has unquestioned support from the region. Almost immediately after the invasion, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan disputed Kremlin readouts of bilateral presidential phone calls which hinted at great support for the Russian cause. This was followed by almost all the countries either refusing to vote or abstaining during the March 2 and March 24 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions condemning the invasion. Other countries which are perceived as close to Moscow, like Belarus, Syria and North Korea voted against the resolution.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<h2>Need for change in policy direction</h2>

As stated earlier, Russia’s decline has left a power vacuum which is rapidly being filled by Turkey and China. Ankara has offered to be a new mediator between the countries and the west, also pushing its defence equipment like the Byraktar drones. Beijing wants to use Central Asia as a route to connect with Europe and thus has concrete investment plans. With the economic freefall of Moscow, China has emerged as a stronger replacement. Even Iran has presented itself as an alternative to nations, in case they don’t want t to be exclusively pushed into the arms of one major player.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

India seems to be the only country of consequence in the neighbourhood which has not acknowledged the new reality of the region. Despite having a fairly active relationship with the regimes there, India has not made any fresh attempts to reach out. With the west retreating from the region, post-Afghan war, India might end up being friendless in the resource-abundant area. This can prove to be disastrous as areas here are hotbeds for radicalisation and drug trade. Lack of footprint can mean these countries can become a base for proxy warfare in India. In fact, it should be expected of hostile countries like China to use their investments as tools to stoke inflammatory sentiment against India.&nbsp;&nbsp;

<h2>Recent developments&nbsp;</h2>

India very recently has started showing signs of re-starting its engagement with Central Asia. The first decision seems to be coming to terms with the idea of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. New Delhi over the past few months sent a team to engage with leaders in Kabul and even provided a relief package after a deadly earthquake hit Afghanistan. The key idea is to block anti-India terror groups from operating in this region. However, this partnership shouldn’t be limited to these myopic goals.&nbsp;

Even the last dialogue with Central Asia was overtly focused on national security issues that arose from the retreat of Americans from Afghanistan. The region is underdeveloped and India can become an important partner for these countries. In fact, at the present moment, Central Asia faces a massive food insecurity crisis. Whereas India has banned all wheat exports, it still can look at long-term opportunities by making Central Asia a client state, the way UAE is.&nbsp;

But randomly listing out potential pressure points won’t be of any help as long as a formal acknowledgement doesn’t come in. Just the way India made it clear that it was going to chart out an independent path when it came to the Russia-Ukraine crises, it similarly needs to plan and engage with the region in its own standing and not as some distant player who’ll address vague security concerns.

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On 24th February 2022, the world fundamentally changed when Vladamir Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision destabilised the global status quo: Europe as a continent had moved on from full-scale warfare and the new centre of geopolitical tension was China.

On 24th February 2022, the world fundamentally changed when Vladamir Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision destabilised the global status quo: Europe as a continent had moved on from full-scale warfare and the new centre of geopolitical tension was China. Policymakers, across the world, had failed to gauge the extent of Putin’s expansionism. Despite his illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula back in 2014, countries like Germany were hooked to Russian gas and UK was home to the dark money of Russian oligarchs. The miscalculations didn’t end there. Whereas most expected Ukraine to fall within, at best, weeks the conflict is now well into its fourth month. The chaotic affair, in an already pandemic-induced stressed world, has forced every nation to fend for itself. Some like Sri Lanka have already collapsed under the crushing weight of debt whereas others like Turkey face unprecedented inflation. Geopolitics has started reflecting this reality; Germany has started militarising, NATO has a new purpose, China-Russia engagement has shot up, Middle-east’s cold tensions are subduing and much more. The only region that hasn’t made headlines in terms of dramatic shifts in foreign policy are former Soviet Republics of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. All of these countries are under authoritarian setups which draw patronage from Kremlin. With the Ukraine war, Putin doesn’t have either the time or resources to keep these regimes afloat. Smelling blood, neighbours like Turkey and China have moved in rapidly to fill in the power vacuum. This includes increasing defence engagement, accelerating decadal goals and bolstering trade talks. The region is going through unprecedented churning which includes, for the first time since the days of the Russian empire, the possibility of it moving away from Moscow’s diktats. India and Central Asia Post-independence, India’s primary engagement with Central Asia was largely defined by its two western neighbours, Pakistan and Afghanistan. During the 1990s, Central Asian countries played an important role in maintaining the anti-Taliban coalition, the Northern Alliance. India had supported the group to keep a check on terror threats from the Taliban regime. However, as New Delhi has expanded its worldview, the former Soviet Republics are approached with more evolved goals. They are now looked upon as a means to diversify energy needs and provide an overland route to Europe. Apart from this, the Stans also have huge deposits of rare earth elements, host one of India’s few overseas military bases (in Tajikistan) and are among emerging markets where Indian businesses can grow. This changing attitude was reflected in Connect Central Asia policy of 2012. The idea was to bypass the Russians and have a more independent relationship with the region. The primary problem with the policy was establishing connectivity with the region, given it was landlocked and Pakistan blocked New Delhi’s access. This challenge was addressed with investments in the Chahbahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor. These projects mixed with the Ashgabat agreement provided India with an alternative path. However, because of sanctions on Iran, the partner India was looking at to go around Pakistan, the projects have faced multiple delays. In the meanwhile, China kept increasing its influence in the region on the back of its Belt and Road Initiative. Ukraine Conflict and Russia’s loosening grip Since the beginning of the conflict Central Asian countries have maintained strategic neutrality leaning away from Kremlin. In March itself, Uzbekistan’s then foreign minister Abdulaziz Kamilov called for the territorial integrity of Kyiv saying, “We recognize the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”. Kazakhstan went even further as their First Deputy Chief of Staff of the President’s Office, Timur Suleimenov said, "Of course, Russia wanted us to be more on their side. But Kazakhstan respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine. We did not recognise and will not recognise the Crimea situation and neither the Donbas situation because the UN does not recognise them. We will only respect decisions taken at the level of the United Nations” Even amongst Central Asian nations, this position by Kazakhstan stands out. Firstly it shares a direct border with Russia and is fairly resource-rich, making it about as important as Ukraine in terms of Moscow's sphere of influence. Secondly, earlier this year when Nur-Sultan had seen massive protests because of inflation and popular resentment it was Russia who helped the regime get the situation under control. Moreover, Putin has also failed to show he has unquestioned support from the region. Almost immediately after the invasion, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan disputed Kremlin readouts of bilateral presidential phone calls which hinted at great support for the Russian cause. This was followed by almost all the countries either refusing to vote or abstaining during the March 2 and March 24 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions condemning the invasion. Other countries which are perceived as close to Moscow, like Belarus, Syria and North Korea voted against the resolution. Need for change in policy direction As stated earlier, Russia’s decline has left a power vacuum which is rapidly being filled by Turkey and China. Ankara has offered to be a new mediator between the countries and the west, also pushing its defence equipment like the Byraktar drones. Beijing wants to use Central Asia as a route to connect with Europe and thus has concrete investment plans. With the economic freefall of Moscow, China has emerged as a stronger replacement. Even Iran has presented itself as an alternative to nations, in case they don’t want t to be exclusively pushed into the arms of one major player. India seems to be the only country of consequence in the neighbourhood which has not acknowledged the new reality of the region. Despite having a fairly active relationship with the regimes there, India has not made any fresh attempts to reach out. With the west retreating from the region, post-Afghan war, India might end up being friendless in the resource-abundant area. This can prove to be disastrous as areas here are hotbeds for radicalisation and drug trade. Lack of footprint can mean these countries can become a base for proxy warfare in India. In fact, it should be expected of hostile countries like China to use their investments as tools to stoke inflammatory sentiment against India. Recent developments India very recently has started showing signs of re-starting its engagement with Central Asia. The first decision seems to be coming to terms with the idea of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. New Delhi over the past few months sent a team to engage with leaders in Kabul and even provided a relief package after a deadly earthquake hit Afghanistan. The key idea is to block anti-India terror groups from operating in this region. However, this partnership shouldn’t be limited to these myopic goals. Even the last dialogue with Central Asia was overtly focused on national security issues that arose from the retreat of Americans from Afghanistan. The region is underdeveloped and India can become an important partner for these countries. In fact, at the present moment, Central Asia faces a massive food insecurity crisis. Whereas India has banned all wheat exports, it still can look at long-term opportunities by making Central Asia a client state, the way UAE is. But randomly listing out potential pressure points won’t be of any help as long as a formal acknowledgement doesn’t come in. Just the way India made it clear that it was going to chart out an independent path when it came to the Russia-Ukraine crises, it similarly needs to plan and engage with the region in its own standing and not as some distant player who’ll address vague security concerns. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here. WATCH WION LIVE HERE ×

Why India needs to update its Central Asia policy

India hosted its first ever summit with Central Asian countries. The situation in Afghanistan topped the agenda. What are the key takeaways? Palki Sharma brings you the highlights.

Gravitas: India-Central Asian countries discuss situation in Afghanistan

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted the first India-Central Asia Summit on Thursday to strengthen ties with Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.Speaking at the summit, PM Modi stated that India shares excellent relations with all central asian nations.

Prime Minister Modi emphasised the importance of Central Asia in India's objective of a more integrated and stable extended neighbourhood.

PM Modi stated that mutual cooperation between India and Central Asia is critical for regional stability and prosperity.&nbsp;

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Addressing the India-Central Asia Summit. <a href="https://t.co/HMhScJGI15">https://t.co/HMhScJGI15</a>
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Aside from regional security and the Afghan situation, the leaders emphasised important subjects including trade and connectivity, development partnerships, culture, and people-to-people ties.

PM Modi made a historic trip to all of Central Asia in 2015. 
 
<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/republic-day-2022-pm-narendra-modi-ditches-turban-goes-for-uttarakhand-cap-447741">Also read | Republic Day 2022: PM Narendra Modi ditches turban, goes for Uttarakhand cap</a>

Following it, high-level discussions took place in bilateral and multilateral forums.

The establishment of the India-Central Asia Dialogue at the level of Foreign Ministers, whose third meeting took place in New Delhi from December 18–20, 2021, has given a boost to India-Central Asia relations.&nbsp;

The participation of the Secretaries of National Security Councils of Central Asian countries in the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan, held in New Delhi on November 10, 2021, outlined a common regional approach towards Afghanistan.&nbsp; 
 
(With inputs from agencies)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted the first India-Central Asia Summit on Thursday to strengthen ties with Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted the first India-Central Asia Summit on Thursday to strengthen ties with Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.Speaking at the summit, PM Modi stated that India shares excellent relations with all central asian nations. Prime Minister Modi emphasised the importance of Central Asia in India's objective of a more integrated and stable extended neighbourhood. PM Modi stated that mutual cooperation between India and Central Asia is critical for regional stability and prosperity. Addressing the India-Central Asia Summit. https://t.co/HMhScJGI15 — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) January 27, 2022 × Aside from regional security and the Afghan situation, the leaders emphasised important subjects including trade and connectivity, development partnerships, culture, and people-to-people ties. PM Modi made a historic trip to all of Central Asia in 2015. Also read | Republic Day 2022: PM Narendra Modi ditches turban, goes for Uttarakhand cap Following it, high-level discussions took place in bilateral and multilateral forums. The establishment of the India-Central Asia Dialogue at the level of Foreign Ministers, whose third meeting took place in New Delhi from December 18–20, 2021, has given a boost to India-Central Asia relations. The participation of the Secretaries of National Security Councils of Central Asian countries in the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan, held in New Delhi on November 10, 2021, outlined a common regional approach towards Afghanistan. (With inputs from agencies)

Watch | ‘Central Asia is central to India's vision of a stable neighbourhood': PM Modi 