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<p>Political leaders in India on Sunday (Jan 28) reacted to Janata Dal (United) President Nitish Kumar exiting the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar and rejoining hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Kumar, the president of the JD(U), was appointed as the acting chief minister by the governor after tendering his resignation.</p>

<p>Citing sources from Bihar BJP, news agency ANI reported that CM Kumar and two deputy CMs from the BJP are likely to take oath later on Sunday. These developments come just months before the Lok Sabha election in India.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/bihar-political-crisis-live-cm-nitish-seeks-time-to-meet-governor-today-684394">Click here to follow all updates on the political crisis in Bihar</a></strong></p>

<p>The Grand Alliance in Bihar consists of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, and other Left Parties. This is Kumar's fifth switch to a political alliance in a decade. During his tenure as CM, Kumar has several times switched between political alliances.&nbsp;</p>

<h2><strong>Politicians react</strong></h2>

<p>Reacting to Kumar's decision to dump the Grand Alliance, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge said he knew this would happen.</p>

<p>"Earlier, he and we were fighting together. When I talked to Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, they also said that Nitish is going. If he (Nitish) wanted to stay, he would have stayed but he wants to go. That's why we already knew this, but to keep the INDIA bloc intact, if we say something wrong, the wrong message will be sent," Kharge said.</p>

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<p>"It is not surprising that Nitish Kumar has resigned. He is a seasoned politician. He has been a chief minister for several years. But he keeps changing his political colours. He gives a tough challenge to chameleons. People of Bihar will give a befitting reply to him and to those who are making him dance from Delhi," Congress General Secretary in-charge Communications, Jairam Ramesh said.</p>

<p>RJD leader Mrityunjay Tiwari speaking to ANI said, "What was left with him? The public is the master. It watches everything and it will demand an account for everything...".</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WATCH?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WATCH</a> | On INDIA alliance and Bihar political situation, BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad says, " If the main man (Nitish Kumar) behind this alliance says so, then there was no future (for INDIA alliance). There is no vacancy for the Prime Ministerial post. BJP will have a historic… <a href="https://t.co/fdaCiw270B">pic.twitter.com/fdaCiw270B</a></p>
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<p>"If the main man (Nitish Kumar) behind this alliance says so, then there was no future (for INDIA alliance). There is no vacancy for the Prime Ministerial post. BJP will have a historic win in Lok Sabha polls and in Bihar we will win the whole 40 seats," former Union minister and BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad told the news agency.</p>

<p><strong>Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/bjp-appoints-state-election-in-charges-for-lok-sabha-polls-684377">BJP appoints state election in-charges for Lok Sabha polls</a></strong></p>

<p>Hitting out at the Congress, JD(U) leader KC Tyagi said that the grand old party wanted to steal the leadership of the INDIA alliance. "Congress kept dragging the seat sharing, we kept saying that seat sharing needs to happen immediately...INDIA lacked plans to fight against BJP," he said.</p>

<h2><strong>‘I was hurt, left INDIA bloc’</strong></h2>

<p>After submitting his resignation, Nitish Kumar said he was hurt and hence left the INDIA bloc.</p>

<p>"The situation came to this pass as the state of affairs within the ruling alliance (Mahagathbandhan) in Bihar was not good. I sought the advice and opinions of everyone before coming to this decision. I took all opinions and suggestions to hear," Kumar told reporters</p>

<p>Hitting out at the RJD, his earlier alliance,&nbsp;whose leader Tejashwi Yadav was the deputy CM, Kumar said, "The alliance was sailing through choppy waters. Though we came together on the basis of a common minimum programme and promises to people, we failed to live up to the expectations and discharge our salient duties. Eventually, we fell out and even stopped being on speaking terms."</p>

<p><em>(With inputs from agencies)</em></p>


Political leaders in India on Sunday (Jan 28) reacted to Janata Dal (United) President Nitish Kumar exiting the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar and rejoining hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Political leaders in India on Sunday (Jan 28) reacted to Janata Dal (United) President Nitish Kumar exiting the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar and rejoining hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Kumar, the president of the JD(U), was appointed as the acting chief minister by the governor after tendering his resignation. Citing sources from Bihar BJP, news agency ANI reported that CM Kumar and two deputy CMs from the BJP are likely to take oath later on Sunday. These developments come just months before the Lok Sabha election in India. Click here to follow all updates on the political crisis in Bihar The Grand Alliance in Bihar consists of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, and other Left Parties. This is Kumar's fifth switch to a political alliance in a decade. During his tenure as CM, Kumar has several times switched between political alliances. Politicians react Reacting to Kumar's decision to dump the Grand Alliance, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge said he knew this would happen. "Earlier, he and we were fighting together. When I talked to Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, they also said that Nitish is going. If he (Nitish) wanted to stay, he would have stayed but he wants to go. That's why we already knew this, but to keep the INDIA bloc intact, if we say something wrong, the wrong message will be sent," Kharge said. #WATCH | Jalpaiguri, West Bengal | Congress General Secretary in-charge Communications, Jairam Ramesh says, "It is not surprising that Nitish Kumar has resigned. He is a seasoned politician. He has been a Chief Minister for several years. But he keeps changing his political… pic.twitter.com/fRB0TTBLM8 — ANI (@ANI) January 28, 2024 × "It is not surprising that Nitish Kumar has resigned. He is a seasoned politician. He has been a chief minister for several years. But he keeps changing his political colours. He gives a tough challenge to chameleons. People of Bihar will give a befitting reply to him and to those who are making him dance from Delhi," Congress General Secretary in-charge Communications, Jairam Ramesh said. RJD leader Mrityunjay Tiwari speaking to ANI said, "What was left with him? The public is the master. It watches everything and it will demand an account for everything...". #WATCH | On INDIA alliance and Bihar political situation, BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad says, " If the main man (Nitish Kumar) behind this alliance says so, then there was no future (for INDIA alliance). There is no vacancy for the Prime Ministerial post. BJP will have a historic… pic.twitter.com/fdaCiw270B — ANI (@ANI) January 28, 2024 × "If the main man (Nitish Kumar) behind this alliance says so, then there was no future (for INDIA alliance). There is no vacancy for the Prime Ministerial post. BJP will have a historic win in Lok Sabha polls and in Bihar we will win the whole 40 seats," former Union minister and BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad told the news agency. Also read | BJP appoints state election in-charges for Lok Sabha polls Hitting out at the Congress, JD(U) leader KC Tyagi said that the grand old party wanted to steal the leadership of the INDIA alliance. "Congress kept dragging the seat sharing, we kept saying that seat sharing needs to happen immediately...INDIA lacked plans to fight against BJP," he said. ‘I was hurt, left INDIA bloc’ After submitting his resignation, Nitish Kumar said he was hurt and hence left the INDIA bloc. "The situation came to this pass as the state of affairs within the ruling alliance (Mahagathbandhan) in Bihar was not good. I sought the advice and opinions of everyone before coming to this decision. I took all opinions and suggestions to hear," Kumar told reporters Hitting out at the RJD, his earlier alliance, whose leader Tejashwi Yadav was the deputy CM, Kumar said, "The alliance was sailing through choppy waters. Though we came together on the basis of a common minimum programme and promises to people, we failed to live up to the expectations and discharge our salient duties. Eventually, we fell out and even stopped being on speaking terms." (With inputs from agencies)

‘He gives tough challenge to chameleons’: Cong, RJD react to Nitish dumping Grand Alliance in Bihar

<p>In his&nbsp;first reaction to ally Nitish Kumar's exit from 'INDIA' alliance, and reconstitution of the Bihar government with BJP-led NDA, the outgoing&nbsp;deputy CM of the state Tejashwi Yadav accused Kumar of 'murdering' the hopes of the people by switching sides.</p>

<p>RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, son of party patriarch Lalu Yadav, told ANI: "Why should we not take credit for the work we have done?... The CM who used to say that it is impossible to give jobs, we gave jobs and showed that it is possible. We brought new policies in tourism, IT, and sports. The work that was done in 17 months could not be done in 17 years (of BJP-JDU rule). We did historic work in the 17 months..."</p>

<p>Yadav also hinted at more political developments in the state ahead of the General Elections in 2024 and said that 'the game is yet to begin'.</p>

<p>Describing Nitish Kumar as a 'tired CM', Yadav said, "What I say, I do...I can give you in writing that the JDU party will be finished in 2024. The public is with us..."</p>

<p>"I want to thank the BJP that it got ready to induct his party (JDU) in their alliance," he added.</p>

<p>After days of speculation, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar resigned as the Chief Minister of Bihar on Sunday (Jan 28). The resignation came within 18 months. Hours later, Nitish took oath as Bihar CM for the ninth time and formed a new state government&nbsp;with BJP's support.</p>

<h2><strong>'The situation was not good': Nitish Kumar on breaking ties with RJD</strong></h2>

<p>"I have resigned as the CM today and have asked the Governor to put an end to this government. Party leaders were giving me advice. I heard what they said and have resigned. The situation was not good. So, we have broken ties," Nitish Kumar told reporters outside the Raj Bhavan.</p>

<p>Nitish Kumar has managed to retain his chief ministerial designation despite frequent flip-flops.</p>

<p><strong>Also watch |&nbsp;</strong><strong>Nitish Kumar stakes claim to form a new government in Bihar with BJP</strong></p>

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<p>In the Bihar Assembly of 243, the RJD has 79 MLAs; followed by the BJP's 78; the JD(U)'s 45,&nbsp;the Congress'&nbsp;19, the CPI (M-L)'s 12, two each of the CPI(M) and CPI, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular)'s four seats, and the AIMIM's one, and an Independent legislator.</p>

<p>Nitish Kumar, after parting ways with the BJP in 2022, is credited to have united the opposition parties to jointly take on Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the 2024 General Elections. The dynamics now stands sharply changed with Nitish back in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's fold.&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>(With inputs from agencies)</em></p>


In his first reaction to ally Nitish Kumar's exit from 'INDIA' alliance, and reconstitution of the Bihar government with BJP-led NDA, the outgoing deputy CM of the state Tejashwi Yadav accused Kumar of 'murdering' the hopes of the people by switching sides.

In his first reaction to ally Nitish Kumar's exit from 'INDIA' alliance, and reconstitution of the Bihar government with BJP-led NDA, the outgoing deputy CM of the state Tejashwi Yadav accused Kumar of 'murdering' the hopes of the people by switching sides. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, son of party patriarch Lalu Yadav, told ANI: "Why should we not take credit for the work we have done?... The CM who used to say that it is impossible to give jobs, we gave jobs and showed that it is possible. We brought new policies in tourism, IT, and sports. The work that was done in 17 months could not be done in 17 years (of BJP-JDU rule). We did historic work in the 17 months..." Yadav also hinted at more political developments in the state ahead of the General Elections in 2024 and said that 'the game is yet to begin'. Describing Nitish Kumar as a 'tired CM', Yadav said, "What I say, I do...I can give you in writing that the JDU party will be finished in 2024. The public is with us..." "I want to thank the BJP that it got ready to induct his party (JDU) in their alliance," he added. After days of speculation, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar resigned as the Chief Minister of Bihar on Sunday (Jan 28). The resignation came within 18 months. Hours later, Nitish took oath as Bihar CM for the ninth time and formed a new state government with BJP's support. 'The situation was not good': Nitish Kumar on breaking ties with RJD "I have resigned as the CM today and have asked the Governor to put an end to this government. Party leaders were giving me advice. I heard what they said and have resigned. The situation was not good. So, we have broken ties," Nitish Kumar told reporters outside the Raj Bhavan. Nitish Kumar has managed to retain his chief ministerial designation despite frequent flip-flops. Also watch | Nitish Kumar stakes claim to form a new government in Bihar with BJP × In the Bihar Assembly of 243, the RJD has 79 MLAs; followed by the BJP's 78; the JD(U)'s 45, the Congress' 19, the CPI (M-L)'s 12, two each of the CPI(M) and CPI, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular)'s four seats, and the AIMIM's one, and an Independent legislator. Nitish Kumar, after parting ways with the BJP in 2022, is credited to have united the opposition parties to jointly take on Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the 2024 General Elections. The dynamics now stands sharply changed with Nitish back in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's fold. (With inputs from agencies)

Nitish Kumar has ‘murdered’ hopes of Bihar by switching sides: Tejashwi Yadav

<p>Nitish Kumar took oath as the chief minister of Bihar for a record ninth time on Sunday (Jan 28), flipping from the opposition INDIA alliance to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance). "Now I am back where I was before (in NDA) and now there is no question of going anywhere," the CM assured BJP supporters.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Nitish Kumar hails from the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) party and after his last flip-flop, his now erstwhile government was supported by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Both parties were a part of the INDIA alliance, largely led by the opposition Congress party.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Nitish Kumar earlier submitted his resignation to the Bihar governor and snapped ties with RJD. Then he again staked a claim for the CM seat with the support of BJP, the second-largest party in the Bihar assembly.</p>

<h2><strong>Bihar Assembly seat composition</strong></h2>

<p>The Bihar Assembly boasts 243 members in total, where the RJD holds the largest ground with 79 MLAs.</p>

<p>The BJP has 78 MLAs&nbsp;</p>

<p>The JD(U) has 45 MLAs</p>

<p>The CPI(M-L)(L) has 12 MLAs</p>

<p>The Congress has 19 MLAs</p>

<p>The HAM (S) has 4 MLAs</p>

<p>The AIMIM has 1 MLA</p>

<p>The CPI(M) has 2 MLAs</p>

<p>The CPI has 2 MLAs</p>

<p>There's one Independent MLA</p>

<p>A political party or alliance needs the support of at least 122 members (more than half) to form the government. The ruling&nbsp;<em>Mahagathbandhan&nbsp;</em>(literally translated as Great Alliance) had 159 MLAs in total, which JDU was a part of.</p>

<p><strong>Also read:&nbsp;<a data-jsarwt="1" data-usg="AOvVaw0JnykUT7TBAuvxBX1hhk_e" data-ved="2ahUKEwihjYucoICEAxUla2wGHfaUByQQxfQBKAB6BAgHEAE" href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/bihars-nitish-kumar-ends-his-18-month-long-alliance-with-rjd-congress-to-join-bjp-684558" jsname="YKoRaf">Bihar's Nitish Kumar ends his 18-month-long alliance with RJD &amp; Congress to join BJP</a></strong></p>

<p>Since JDU has now joined hands with BJP, both of them have 123 MLAs in total, just one above the halfway mark. Moreover, the NDA is also backed by the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM [S]), which has 4 MLAs. This puts the NDA government in Bihar in a comfortable position.</p>

<p><strong>Watch:&nbsp;Nitish Kumar stakes claim to form a new government in Bihar with BJP</strong></p>

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<p>On the other hand, the opposition&nbsp;<em>Mahagathbandhan</em>&nbsp;is left with just 114 MLAs, which is eight short of the halfway mark.&nbsp;</p>

<h2><strong>Nitish Kumar attacks&nbsp;<em>Mahagathbandhan</em></strong></h2>

<p>After taking oath for the record ninth time, Nitish Kumar took on&nbsp;the&nbsp;<em>Mahagathbandhan</em>&nbsp;and said the alliance was “not alright” and became so messed up that he had to quit.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"I have not been commenting about anything for long now because things were not right (in the <em>Mahagathbandhan</em>). I was getting opinions and suggestions from everyone, including my party workers. I listened to all of them and resigned today, and ended the current government,” CM Kumar said to reporters.</p>

<p><em>(With inputs from agencies)</em></p>


Nitish Kumar took oath as the chief minister of Bihar for a record ninth time on Sunday (Jan 28), flipping from the opposition INDIA alliance to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance).

Nitish Kumar took oath as the chief minister of Bihar for a record ninth time on Sunday (Jan 28), flipping from the opposition INDIA alliance to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance). "Now I am back where I was before (in NDA) and now there is no question of going anywhere," the CM assured BJP supporters. Nitish Kumar hails from the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) party and after his last flip-flop, his now erstwhile government was supported by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Both parties were a part of the INDIA alliance, largely led by the opposition Congress party. Nitish Kumar earlier submitted his resignation to the Bihar governor and snapped ties with RJD. Then he again staked a claim for the CM seat with the support of BJP, the second-largest party in the Bihar assembly. Bihar Assembly seat composition The Bihar Assembly boasts 243 members in total, where the RJD holds the largest ground with 79 MLAs. The BJP has 78 MLAs The JD(U) has 45 MLAs The CPI(M-L)(L) has 12 MLAs The Congress has 19 MLAs The HAM (S) has 4 MLAs The AIMIM has 1 MLA The CPI(M) has 2 MLAs The CPI has 2 MLAs There's one Independent MLA A political party or alliance needs the support of at least 122 members (more than half) to form the government. The ruling Mahagathbandhan (literally translated as Great Alliance) had 159 MLAs in total, which JDU was a part of. Also read: Bihar's Nitish Kumar ends his 18-month-long alliance with RJD & Congress to join BJP Since JDU has now joined hands with BJP, both of them have 123 MLAs in total, just one above the halfway mark. Moreover, the NDA is also backed by the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM [S]), which has 4 MLAs. This puts the NDA government in Bihar in a comfortable position. Watch: Nitish Kumar stakes claim to form a new government in Bihar with BJP × On the other hand, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is left with just 114 MLAs, which is eight short of the halfway mark. Nitish Kumar attacks Mahagathbandhan After taking oath for the record ninth time, Nitish Kumar took on the Mahagathbandhan and said the alliance was “not alright” and became so messed up that he had to quit. "I have not been commenting about anything for long now because things were not right (in the Mahagathbandhan). I was getting opinions and suggestions from everyone, including my party workers. I listened to all of them and resigned today, and ended the current government,” CM Kumar said to reporters. (With inputs from agencies)

Bihar Assembly in numbers: NDA now backed by 127 MLAs as ‘Mahagathbandhan’ collapses

Indian opposition leaders meet in Delhi underway

<p>Before the 2015 Bihar state assembly elections, a new concept was introduced in India’s already crowded political lexicon, the ‘mahagathbandhan’. Loosely translated, it stood for a grand alliance of many parties who did not share too many commonalities except for one driving factor — the incessant desire to stop the then seemingly unstoppable Narendra Modi juggernaut in its tracks.</p>

<p>In trying to achieve what they wanted, the ‘mahagathbandhan’ had its way. Modi at the height of his popularity was bested in Bihar, the ascendant BJP coming up a cropper with 59 seats against the combined might of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (U) and the Congress, which bagged a formidable 180 assembly seats.</p>

<p>A great political idea had been sown, showing the way ahead to checkmate the BJP if it could. The logic was simple arithmetic. The BJP, which had garnered 31 per cent of the total vote share, had won 282 Lok Sabha seats. It was also the smallest ever vote share for the largest number of seats won. The previous lowest was the Congress that got a little over 40 per cent of the total vote share and 283 seats in 1967, in the days of the yore when the political canvas was a lot less crowded.</p>

<p>It proved just one thing: the BJP had gained heavily on account of the badly splintered vote and if closing the ranks would help, the tide could be turned against the saffron party. And that is what happened in Bihar.</p>

<p>Since then, it is increasingly becoming apparent that while ‘mahagathbandhan’ is a winning idea, implementing it on a national scale would be a tall order. As things stand now, the whole idea of a grand alliance against the BJP is largely restricted to UP. In Bihar, mahagathbandhan’ already stands dashed with one of the original authors of the idea, Nitish Kumar, on the side of the BJP.</p>

<p>It is only in a vast state like UP, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, that such a grand alliance plays out. Obviously, the idea of a such a coalition does not apply in, let’s say, Bengal, Odisha, the Northeast or the regional parties in the South other than Kerala.</p>

<p>Alliances in states like Maharashtra are between national and regional parties while in most parts of central India, the Hindi-speaking states, like Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat, it is going to be a fight mainly between the two national parties, the BJP and the Congress. The two national parties are also locked in a direct confrontation in states like Assam, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Goa, making it very difficult for a `mahagathbandhan’ to take shape in these states.</p>

<p>Sure, events in the last two weeks have demonstrated that BSP supremo Mayawati, the Samajwadi Party and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are looking to expand their base in MP and Chhattisgarh, hoping to cash in on a three-term anti-incumbency against the BJP and the disenchantment with the long decades of Congress rule.</p>

<p>But the difficulty in launching a ‘mahagathbandhan’ appears formidable. The Congress has ruled out giving more than 10 seats to the BSP in MP, which has some presence in districts like Jhansi that border UP and three seats to the SP in MP, which has had some areas of influence and lots of pretensions to power in that state.</p>

<p>All of this adds to complicating the situation as far as carving out a grand alliance in UP is concerned. The two regional outfits are already accusing the Congress of acting like the `big brother’in the forthcoming assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and promise to get back in kind in UP where the Congress is in a relatively weaker spot.</p>

<p>And it is here that the problem lies. In two critical Lok Sabha by-elections in Phulpur and Gorakhpur in UP March this year, the margin of losses are noteworthy. In UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s pocket borough Gorakhpur, the BJP lost by a little over 21,000 votes to the SP that was backed by BSP and the Congress while Phulpur was lost to another SP-led opposition ‘gathbandhan’ by a more respectable under-60,000 votes.</p>

<p>Then again in May, the Kairana Lok Sabha bye-elections in UP saw another battle royale with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)-led combined opposition, including the SP, BSP and Congress, edging out the BJP comfortably by a 50,000 vote margin.</p>

<p>But it is instructive to remember that margins like 21,000 or even 50,000 in a Lok Sabha bye-poll in a vastly populated state like UP can be no indication of how things will shape up in the absence of a ‘mahagathbandhan’. And if BSP’s mercurial and unpredictable boss Mayawati’s statements against allying with other parties are any indication, a coalition in UP, at least at this stage, appears like a tall order. After all, if the united opposition polled 51.1 per cent of the total votes in the Kairana constituency, the BJP, which was the loser did not too badly with 46.5 per cent of votes. In the absence of a combined alliance, this verdict could well be reversed.</p>

<p>There is wisdom in the old adage that the reins of power in India go through UP. Modi knows that better than most and is hence running down any idea of a ‘mahagathbandhan’. A 40-50 seat loss, if such an alliance is in place in UP, will mean the difference between re-assuming office or sitting out in the opposition.</p>

<p><br />
<em>(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-grand-alliance-comes-to-haunt-2674384">original article</a>)</em></p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)</em></p>


Before the 2015 Bihar state assembly elections, a new concept was introduced in India’s already crowded political lexicon, the ‘mahagathbandhan’. Loosely translated, it stood for a grand alliance of many parties who did not share too many commonalities except for one driving factor — the incessant desire to stop the then seemingly unstoppable Narendra Modi juggernaut in its tracks.

Before the 2015 Bihar state assembly elections, a new concept was introduced in India’s already crowded political lexicon, the ‘mahagathbandhan’. Loosely translated, it stood for a grand alliance of many parties who did not share too many commonalities except for one driving factor — the incessant desire to stop the then seemingly unstoppable Narendra Modi juggernaut in its tracks. In trying to achieve what they wanted, the ‘mahagathbandhan’ had its way. Modi at the height of his popularity was bested in Bihar, the ascendant BJP coming up a cropper with 59 seats against the combined might of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (U) and the Congress, which bagged a formidable 180 assembly seats. A great political idea had been sown, showing the way ahead to checkmate the BJP if it could. The logic was simple arithmetic. The BJP, which had garnered 31 per cent of the total vote share, had won 282 Lok Sabha seats. It was also the smallest ever vote share for the largest number of seats won. The previous lowest was the Congress that got a little over 40 per cent of the total vote share and 283 seats in 1967, in the days of the yore when the political canvas was a lot less crowded. It proved just one thing: the BJP had gained heavily on account of the badly splintered vote and if closing the ranks would help, the tide could be turned against the saffron party. And that is what happened in Bihar. Since then, it is increasingly becoming apparent that while ‘mahagathbandhan’ is a winning idea, implementing it on a national scale would be a tall order. As things stand now, the whole idea of a grand alliance against the BJP is largely restricted to UP. In Bihar, mahagathbandhan’ already stands dashed with one of the original authors of the idea, Nitish Kumar, on the side of the BJP. It is only in a vast state like UP, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, that such a grand alliance plays out. Obviously, the idea of a such a coalition does not apply in, let’s say, Bengal, Odisha, the Northeast or the regional parties in the South other than Kerala. Alliances in states like Maharashtra are between national and regional parties while in most parts of central India, the Hindi-speaking states, like Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat, it is going to be a fight mainly between the two national parties, the BJP and the Congress. The two national parties are also locked in a direct confrontation in states like Assam, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Goa, making it very difficult for a `mahagathbandhan’ to take shape in these states. Sure, events in the last two weeks have demonstrated that BSP supremo Mayawati, the Samajwadi Party and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are looking to expand their base in MP and Chhattisgarh, hoping to cash in on a three-term anti-incumbency against the BJP and the disenchantment with the long decades of Congress rule. But the difficulty in launching a ‘mahagathbandhan’ appears formidable. The Congress has ruled out giving more than 10 seats to the BSP in MP, which has some presence in districts like Jhansi that border UP and three seats to the SP in MP, which has had some areas of influence and lots of pretensions to power in that state. All of this adds to complicating the situation as far as carving out a grand alliance in UP is concerned. The two regional outfits are already accusing the Congress of acting like the `big brother’in the forthcoming assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and promise to get back in kind in UP where the Congress is in a relatively weaker spot. And it is here that the problem lies. In two critical Lok Sabha by-elections in Phulpur and Gorakhpur in UP March this year, the margin of losses are noteworthy. In UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s pocket borough Gorakhpur, the BJP lost by a little over 21,000 votes to the SP that was backed by BSP and the Congress while Phulpur was lost to another SP-led opposition ‘gathbandhan’ by a more respectable under-60,000 votes. Then again in May, the Kairana Lok Sabha bye-elections in UP saw another battle royale with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)-led combined opposition, including the SP, BSP and Congress, edging out the BJP comfortably by a 50,000 vote margin. But it is instructive to remember that margins like 21,000 or even 50,000 in a Lok Sabha bye-poll in a vastly populated state like UP can be no indication of how things will shape up in the absence of a ‘mahagathbandhan’. And if BSP’s mercurial and unpredictable boss Mayawati’s statements against allying with other parties are any indication, a coalition in UP, at least at this stage, appears like a tall order. After all, if the united opposition polled 51.1 per cent of the total votes in the Kairana constituency, the BJP, which was the loser did not too badly with 46.5 per cent of votes. In the absence of a combined alliance, this verdict could well be reversed. There is wisdom in the old adage that the reins of power in India go through UP. Modi knows that better than most and is hence running down any idea of a ‘mahagathbandhan’. A 40-50 seat loss, if such an alliance is in place in UP, will mean the difference between re-assuming office or sitting out in the opposition. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Grand alliance comes to haunt