China&#39;s exports and imports unexpectedly accelerated last month in an encouraging sign for the world&#39;s second-biggest economy, though analysts expect growth to continue cooling amid a government crackdown on financial risks and polluting factories.&nbsp;

As global demand has surprised with its strength, consumers have lapped up Chinese goods at a rapid rate this year, giving the economy a boost and providing policymakers, room to tighten rules to curb high-risk lending.&nbsp;Exports in November rose 12.3 percent year-on-year, the fastest pace in eight months, led by strong sales of electronics and high-tech goods, while commodity purchases helped lift imports. The number beat analysts&#39; forecast of a 5.0 percent increase and compared with 6.9 percent growth in October.&nbsp;

Imports grew 17.7 percent year-on-year in November, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday, also well above expectations of 11.3 percent growth and rising at the fastest pace since September.&nbsp;The numbers may help to ease concerns of slowing momentum in Asia&#39;s economic powerhouse, which had surprised markets with robust growth of nearly 6.9 percent in the first nine months of this year, thanks to a government-led infrastructure spending spree and unexpected strength in exports.

&quot;While we still expect China&#39;s domestic economy to cool in 2018 on gradually tighter fiscal policies, the November import data shows that there are upside risks to our China outlook&quot;, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.&nbsp;Tighter rules to rein in risks from a rapid build-up in debt and cut pollution have weighed on overall activity since the third quarter.

Besides ramped-up efforts to reduce winter pollution, authorities unveiled fresh regulatory measures last month for the financial sector, clamping down on high-risk lending and halting some dubious infrastructure projects that would swell local governments&#39; debt.

Imports Bounce To Tail Off?

Some of China&#39;s northern provinces have ordered factories to throttle back or halt output to reduce notoriously thick winter smog.&nbsp;While the war on pollution had been expected to reduce raw materials imports, Friday&#39;s trade numbers showed commodity imports rebounded last month.&nbsp;

China&#39;s natural gas imports in November rose to a record as domestic demand surged while crude imports were the second-highest ever, as refiners ramped up output to cash in on strong profits as fuel prices soar.&nbsp;China&#39;s iron ore imports rose in November even as steel mills are cutting output as part of a government drive against pollution as some analysts said traders were stockpiling inventory.&nbsp;

Iron ore imports &quot;were not necessarily just by steel mills but could have been also purchased by traders&quot;, said Helen Lau at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong. He added, &quot;They&#39;re trying to accumulate stocks and will do so maybe through March in anticipation of Chinese mills resuming production when China lifts the winter restrictions&quot;.&nbsp;

Steel exports rose from the previous month to 5.35 million tonnes in November, data showed.&nbsp;The rebound in imports comes as China&#39;s yuan has fallen 2.8 percent against the dollar since hitting its 2017 peak on September 8.&nbsp;The latest data showed the country posted a trade surplus of $40.21 billion for the month versus expectations of $35 billion in November after October&#39;s $38.185 billion. Despite the overall strength of the November data, imports could come under pressure as China&#39;s economy cools, analysts say.&nbsp;

&quot;Chinese trade looks to have been surprisingly strong last month. We expect exports to continue to perform well in the coming months on the back of strong global demand&quot;, Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note.&nbsp;&quot;However, we are skeptical that the strength of imports can be sustained given that the delayed impact of policy tightening and a cooling property market are set to weigh on Chinese demand for commodities in coming quarters&quot;.

China's natural gas imports and iron imports rose in November, while steel mills are trying to cut output in a drive against pollution. The growth is still phenomenal for world's second-biggest economy

China's exports and imports unexpectedly accelerated last month in an encouraging sign for the world's second-biggest economy, though analysts expect growth to continue cooling amid a government crackdown on financial risks and polluting factories. As global demand has surprised with its strength, consumers have lapped up Chinese goods at a rapid rate this year, giving the economy a boost and providing policymakers, room to tighten rules to curb high-risk lending. Exports in November rose 12.3 percent year-on-year, the fastest pace in eight months, led by strong sales of electronics and high-tech goods, while commodity purchases helped lift imports. The number beat analysts' forecast of a 5.0 percent increase and compared with 6.9 percent growth in October. Imports grew 17.7 percent year-on-year in November, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday, also well above expectations of 11.3 percent growth and rising at the fastest pace since September. The numbers may help to ease concerns of slowing momentum in Asia's economic powerhouse, which had surprised markets with robust growth of nearly 6.9 percent in the first nine months of this year, thanks to a government-led infrastructure spending spree and unexpected strength in exports. "While we still expect China's domestic economy to cool in 2018 on gradually tighter fiscal policies, the November import data shows that there are upside risks to our China outlook", said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. Tighter rules to rein in risks from a rapid build-up in debt and cut pollution have weighed on overall activity since the third quarter. Besides ramped-up efforts to reduce winter pollution, authorities unveiled fresh regulatory measures last month for the financial sector, clamping down on high-risk lending and halting some dubious infrastructure projects that would swell local governments' debt. Imports Bounce To Tail Off? Some of China's northern provinces have ordered factories to throttle back or halt output to reduce notoriously thick winter smog. While the war on pollution had been expected to reduce raw materials imports, Friday's trade numbers showed commodity imports rebounded last month. China's natural gas imports in November rose to a record as domestic demand surged while crude imports were the second-highest ever, as refiners ramped up output to cash in on strong profits as fuel prices soar. China's iron ore imports rose in November even as steel mills are cutting output as part of a government drive against pollution as some analysts said traders were stockpiling inventory. Iron ore imports "were not necessarily just by steel mills but could have been also purchased by traders", said Helen Lau at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong. He added, "They're trying to accumulate stocks and will do so maybe through March in anticipation of Chinese mills resuming production when China lifts the winter restrictions". Steel exports rose from the previous month to 5.35 million tonnes in November, data showed. The rebound in imports comes as China's yuan has fallen 2.8 percent against the dollar since hitting its 2017 peak on September 8. The latest data showed the country posted a trade surplus of $40.21 billion for the month versus expectations of $35 billion in November after October's $38.185 billion. Despite the overall strength of the November data, imports could come under pressure as China's economy cools, analysts say. "Chinese trade looks to have been surprisingly strong last month. We expect exports to continue to perform well in the coming months on the back of strong global demand", Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note. "However, we are skeptical that the strength of imports can be sustained given that the delayed impact of policy tightening and a cooling property market are set to weigh on Chinese demand for commodities in coming quarters".

China exports growth hits eight-month high, imports defy pollution curbs

China&#39;s Foreign Ministry said on Friday&nbsp;that Dandong&#39;s Friendship Bridge, which connects with the North Korean town of Sinuiju across the Yalu river, will be closed for maintenance.

Dandong has boomed in recent years, swept up by speculation that North Korea&#39;s young leader, Kim Jong Un, would, in time, copy China&#39;s export-oriented economic reforms.

But many of those firms have since folded, residents and traders say. Construction on at least two apartment complexes in Dandong has stalled and empty shopfronts are scattered across the city.

China&#39;s trade with North Korea fell to $334.9 million in October, its lowest since February as imports sank to their weakest in years, data showed on Thursday (November 25), the latest sign that tough new sanctions cut business with its isolated neighbour.

Construction on at least two apartment complexes in Dandong has stalled and empty shopfronts are scattered across the city

China's Foreign Ministry said on Friday that Dandong's Friendship Bridge, which connects with the North Korean town of Sinuiju across the Yalu river, will be closed for maintenance. Dandong has boomed in recent years, swept up by speculation that North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un, would, in time, copy China's export-oriented economic reforms. But many of those firms have since folded, residents and traders say. Construction on at least two apartment complexes in Dandong has stalled and empty shopfronts are scattered across the city. China's trade with North Korea fell to $334.9 million in October, its lowest since February as imports sank to their weakest in years, data showed on Thursday (November 25), the latest sign that tough new sanctions cut business with its isolated neighbour.

Watch: China confirms 'Friendship Bridge' to North Korea closed for maintenance

Pakistan&#39;s sugar industry is urging the government to reinstate export subsidies after a steep fall in global sugar prices has slowed shipments, adding to a domestic surplus just as the country prepares to harvest a record crop.

Without revenues from exports, local mills will struggle to pay farmers for new supplies, while large stockpiles will stop domestic prices from rallying in the world&#39;s eighth-largest sugar producer, industry officials said.

Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi met with the politically influential industry last week and directed the Commerce Ministry and Sugar Advisory Board to work on ways to resolve &quot;the issues and problems&quot; affecting sugar, his office said in a statement.

Pakistan last had an export subsidy in 2015/16, set at 13,000 rupees ($124) per tonne for exports of 650,000 tonnes of the sweetener, and a similar subsidy level is needed again, the industry said.

&quot;Mills are not able to export sugar at the current international prices,&quot; Iskandar Khan, senior vice chairman of the politically influential Pakistan Sugar Mills Association told Reuters.

Global prices have fallen over a quarter so far in 2017 to around $378 a tonne as output is expected to climb in key producers like India, China and Thailand.

&quot;In the world market, prices need to rise by $60 per tonne to make exports viable,&quot; said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

Sugar cane is a popular crop in Pakistan as the government sets procurement prices, while the industry is protected by a 40 percent import tariff which has led to high domestic prices.

The association says the area given over to sugar cane has risen about 30 percent over the past seven years, while output has more than doubled with the help of government subsidies for fertilizers and other aids.

Pakistan produced 7 million tonnes of sugar in the 2016/17 marketing year ending September 30, exceeding local demand of around 5 million tonnes, and the association pegs this year&#39;s crop at a record 8 million tonnes.

Pakistan controls sugar exports via quotas in an effort to ensure sufficient local supplies. So far this year it has authorised 725,000 tonnes of shipments, which would make it the world&#39;s ninth largest exporter, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

However, the country has actually exported only about 350,000 tonnes, traders estimate, with current stockpiles sitting at about 1 million tonnes.

Mills in Pakistan usually start crushing in October, but this year plan to delay crushing by a few months as they lack the funds to settle bills for cane purchases before the new season, said a sugar miller based in Karachi.

&quot;Pakistan has no choice but to export surplus sugar,&quot; said the Mumbai-based dealer.

Without revenues from exports, local mills will struggle to pay farmers for new supplies, while large stockpiles will stop domestic prices from rallying in the world's eighth-largest sugar producer, industry officials said.

Pakistan's sugar industry is urging the government to reinstate export subsidies after a steep fall in global sugar prices has slowed shipments, adding to a domestic surplus just as the country prepares to harvest a record crop. Without revenues from exports, local mills will struggle to pay farmers for new supplies, while large stockpiles will stop domestic prices from rallying in the world's eighth-largest sugar producer, industry officials said. Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi met with the politically influential industry last week and directed the Commerce Ministry and Sugar Advisory Board to work on ways to resolve "the issues and problems" affecting sugar, his office said in a statement. Pakistan last had an export subsidy in 2015/16, set at 13,000 rupees ($124) per tonne for exports of 650,000 tonnes of the sweetener, and a similar subsidy level is needed again, the industry said. "Mills are not able to export sugar at the current international prices," Iskandar Khan, senior vice chairman of the politically influential Pakistan Sugar Mills Association told Reuters. Global prices have fallen over a quarter so far in 2017 to around $378 a tonne as output is expected to climb in key producers like India, China and Thailand. "In the world market, prices need to rise by $60 per tonne to make exports viable," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm. Sugar cane is a popular crop in Pakistan as the government sets procurement prices, while the industry is protected by a 40 percent import tariff which has led to high domestic prices. The association says the area given over to sugar cane has risen about 30 percent over the past seven years, while output has more than doubled with the help of government subsidies for fertilizers and other aids. Pakistan produced 7 million tonnes of sugar in the 2016/17 marketing year ending September 30, exceeding local demand of around 5 million tonnes, and the association pegs this year's crop at a record 8 million tonnes. Pakistan controls sugar exports via quotas in an effort to ensure sufficient local supplies. So far this year it has authorised 725,000 tonnes of shipments, which would make it the world's ninth largest exporter, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. However, the country has actually exported only about 350,000 tonnes, traders estimate, with current stockpiles sitting at about 1 million tonnes. Mills in Pakistan usually start crushing in October, but this year plan to delay crushing by a few months as they lack the funds to settle bills for cane purchases before the new season, said a sugar miller based in Karachi. "Pakistan has no choice but to export surplus sugar," said the Mumbai-based dealer.

Pakistan struggles to export sugar surplus as global prices plunge

For many coal miners in Indonesia&#39;s resource-dependent economy, a surprise shift in India&#39;s coal industry from big importer to potential exporter could not have come at a worse time. 
 
Prices have slumped over the past five years and a slowing China is buying less. Now, Indonesia faces an Indian double whammy: not only is its main export market producing so much coal that it aims to wind down imports in two years, it&#39;s also set to start exporting for the first time to a market dominated by Indonesia. 
 
State-run Coal India is opening mines at the rate of one a month and expanding existing ones, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi fast-tracks environmental clearances to double output this decade and meet election promises to provide power to a population of 1.3 billion. 
 
That dash for production has left Coal India with a stockpile of more than 50 million tonnes of mined coal, but domestic demand is rising more slowly than anticipated, prompting it to start talks to export to neighbouring Bangladesh. 
 
Not so long ago, Indonesian coal executives brushed aside concerns about slowing sales to China, citing strong Indian demand - suggesting they have underestimated India&#39;s ability to quickly ramp up production. 
 
&quot;This is a threat to the Indonesian coal industry,&quot; said Supriatna Suhala, executive director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA). &quot;In future, we may have to compete with India. They may become an exporter to Asia.&quot; 
 
&#39;Dire Trouble&#39; 
 
In Indonesia, the shift in Indian demand is most keenly felt among producers of low-quality coal in southern Sumatra, said Ben Lawson, chief operating officer of Sanaman Coal, which owns a small, unopened mine in the region. 
 
&quot;There&#39;s been a tonne of closures in South Sumatra and Jambi (provinces) because that was all geared towards the Indian market,&quot; he said, noting many mines producing nearby are in &quot;dire trouble&quot;. 
 
This could trigger more mine closures on top of thousands already shut across Indonesia due to weak demand and prices, piling the pressure on President Joko Widodo and an economy where coal mining accounts for around four per cent of GDP. 
 
Even larger firms such as PT Adaro Energy, Berau Coal Energy and PT Bukit Asam may have to cut jobs and output once long-term supply contracts to India expire, analysts say - though they are better placed as they have lower mining costs, investments in other businesses like power generation and are able to supply the higher grade, low-ash coal that India&#39;s coastal plants rely on. 
 
Price Pressure 
 
While Modi&#39;s manufacturing push could reboot Indian demand, current production rates and stock levels signal that India, which has the world&#39;s fourth-largest coal reserves, is likely to become an exporter of thermal coal for power generation. 
 
A switch by such a big buyer will keep the pressure on world thermal coal prices, which have picked up from decade lows in January but are still well below where they were five years ago. 
 
Anil Swarup, the top civil servant in India&#39;s coal ministry, acknowledged the country&#39;s low-quality coal could be a tough sell, particularly as higher grades are available at such low prices. Nevertheless, he said Coal India was in talks with Bangladesh over price and the quality of coal to be sold, and he hoped to &quot;see some action on the ground in three months&quot;. 
 
Electricity-starved Bangladesh buys only around three million tonnes of coal a year, but consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicts demand could jump to as much as 15 million tonnes by 2020 as planned power plants worth at least $8 billion are built there with help from India and China. 
 
Spoilt for Choice 
 
India&#39;s declining appetite for Indonesian coal is partly a result of low prices that have made higher calorific value coal available elsewhere more affordable. 
 
&quot;It&#39;s impacting all the major export markets because now the Indians are not at a loss for choice, and you can see that from month-to-month they just skip around from South Africa to Indonesia,&quot; said Lawson at Sanaman Coal. 
 
Imports by India&#39;s coastal power plants, which are designed to use only high-grade imported coal, rose around three per cent to 43.5 million tonnes in the year to end-March, according to mjunction, an online trading platform. 
 
Overall, India&#39;s January-May coal imports fell 5.4 per cent to 82.57 million tonnes, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Thomson Reuters. Though Indonesia remained the top supplier, its sales to India fell by a fifth to 36.72 million tonnes, while shipments from South Africa increased by more than a quarter to 16.58 million tonnes. 
 
Indonesia is now tapping other existing export markets, from South Korea and Taiwan to Japan, and may also target countries that don&#39;t have large coal resources, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam. 
 
It has also capped its production at 400 million tonnes and is fast-tracking power plant developments to use more domestic coal, said Suhala at the ICMA. 
 
&quot;Indian demand, the great saviour from falling China demand, has turned out to be largely fictional,&quot; said Hans Lukiman, a small-scale Indonesian coal miner. 
 
(Reuters)

Not only is India buying less Indonesian coal, it's producing so much that its exports are cutting into Indonesia's market

For many coal miners in Indonesia's resource-dependent economy, a surprise shift in India's coal industry from big importer to potential exporter could not have come at a worse time. Prices have slumped over the past five years and a slowing China is buying less. Now, Indonesia faces an Indian double whammy: not only is its main export market producing so much coal that it aims to wind down imports in two years, it's also set to start exporting for the first time to a market dominated by Indonesia. State-run Coal India is opening mines at the rate of one a month and expanding existing ones, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi fast-tracks environmental clearances to double output this decade and meet election promises to provide power to a population of 1.3 billion. That dash for production has left Coal India with a stockpile of more than 50 million tonnes of mined coal, but domestic demand is rising more slowly than anticipated, prompting it to start talks to export to neighbouring Bangladesh. Not so long ago, Indonesian coal executives brushed aside concerns about slowing sales to China, citing strong Indian demand - suggesting they have underestimated India's ability to quickly ramp up production. "This is a threat to the Indonesian coal industry," said Supriatna Suhala, executive director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA). "In future, we may have to compete with India. They may become an exporter to Asia." 'Dire Trouble' In Indonesia, the shift in Indian demand is most keenly felt among producers of low-quality coal in southern Sumatra, said Ben Lawson, chief operating officer of Sanaman Coal, which owns a small, unopened mine in the region. "There's been a tonne of closures in South Sumatra and Jambi (provinces) because that was all geared towards the Indian market," he said, noting many mines producing nearby are in "dire trouble". This could trigger more mine closures on top of thousands already shut across Indonesia due to weak demand and prices, piling the pressure on President Joko Widodo and an economy where coal mining accounts for around four per cent of GDP. Even larger firms such as PT Adaro Energy, Berau Coal Energy and PT Bukit Asam may have to cut jobs and output once long-term supply contracts to India expire, analysts say - though they are better placed as they have lower mining costs, investments in other businesses like power generation and are able to supply the higher grade, low-ash coal that India's coastal plants rely on. Price Pressure While Modi's manufacturing push could reboot Indian demand, current production rates and stock levels signal that India, which has the world's fourth-largest coal reserves, is likely to become an exporter of thermal coal for power generation. A switch by such a big buyer will keep the pressure on world thermal coal prices, which have picked up from decade lows in January but are still well below where they were five years ago. Anil Swarup, the top civil servant in India's coal ministry, acknowledged the country's low-quality coal could be a tough sell, particularly as higher grades are available at such low prices. Nevertheless, he said Coal India was in talks with Bangladesh over price and the quality of coal to be sold, and he hoped to "see some action on the ground in three months". Electricity-starved Bangladesh buys only around three million tonnes of coal a year, but consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicts demand could jump to as much as 15 million tonnes by 2020 as planned power plants worth at least $8 billion are built there with help from India and China. Spoilt for Choice India's declining appetite for Indonesian coal is partly a result of low prices that have made higher calorific value coal available elsewhere more affordable. "It's impacting all the major export markets because now the Indians are not at a loss for choice, and you can see that from month-to-month they just skip around from South Africa to Indonesia," said Lawson at Sanaman Coal. Imports by India's coastal power plants, which are designed to use only high-grade imported coal, rose around three per cent to 43.5 million tonnes in the year to end-March, according to mjunction, an online trading platform. Overall, India's January-May coal imports fell 5.4 per cent to 82.57 million tonnes, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Thomson Reuters. Though Indonesia remained the top supplier, its sales to India fell by a fifth to 36.72 million tonnes, while shipments from South Africa increased by more than a quarter to 16.58 million tonnes. Indonesia is now tapping other existing export markets, from South Korea and Taiwan to Japan, and may also target countries that don't have large coal resources, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam. It has also capped its production at 400 million tonnes and is fast-tracking power plant developments to use more domestic coal, said Suhala at the ICMA. "Indian demand, the great saviour from falling China demand, has turned out to be largely fictional," said Hans Lukiman, a small-scale Indonesian coal miner. (Reuters)

India's coal shift a double whammy for Indonesian exporters

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