Gujarat's cloudburst has put El Niño back in the spotlight. But scientists are now looking at a far slower climate cycle that could have quietly amplified the monsoon. It is known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. What is it? WION Decodes.<h2>Gujarat's most intense rain spell</h2>The Western India state recently received more than 400 mm of rain in just a few hours. The immediate question everyone asked was: Is El Niño to blame?However, as researchers piece together what fueled one of the state's most intense rainfall episodes, another climate phenomenon has entered the conversation. It is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-term ocean cycle that can quietly shape weather patterns for decades.Unlike El Niño or La Niña, which dominate headlines every few years, the PDO rarely makes the news. Yet scientists say its current negative phase may have created conditions that allowed the Indian monsoon to become unusually vigorous over western India. So what exactly is the PDO, and could it have played a role in Gujarat floods?Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/assam-flood-deaths-rise-to-61-80-000-still-stranded-without-relief-1784938900978">Assam flood deaths rise to 61; 80,000 still stranded without relief</a><h2>What is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?</h2>Think of the PDO as El Niño's slower, longer-lived version. It is a climate pattern driven by changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the North Pacific Ocean. Instead of flipping every year or two, the PDO remains in one phase for 20 to 30 years, shaping the background climate over entire decades.The PDO has two phases:- Positive PDO: Warmer-than-normal waters develop along the eastern Pacific near North America, while the central North Pacific becomes cooler. - Negative PDO: In this, the pattern reverses, with cooler eastern Pacific waters and warmer conditions farther west.These shifts influence jet streams, storm tracks, wind circulation and moisture transport far beyond the Pacific.Isn't this just El Niño by another name?While it seems similar to El Niño, it's different. Both involve the Pacific Ocean, but they operate on different time scales and in different regions.El Niño and La Niña are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and develop in the equatorial Pacific, typically lasting 9 to 18 months.The PDO, by contrast, occurs mainly in the North Pacific and can remain in one phase for two or even three decades. Rather than replacing El Niño or La Niña, the PDO can amplify or weaken their effects.<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/gujarat-flood-crisis-22-000-people-relocated-1-200-rescued-after-record-rainfall-in-south-gujarat-1784884327060/embed">https://www.wionews.com/videos/gujarat-flood-crisis-22-000-people-relocated-1-200-rescued-after-record-rainfall-in-south-gujarat-1784884327060/embed</a><h2>So how could the PDO have influenced Gujarat's rainfall?</h2>Scientists caution that the PDO did not directly cause Gujarat's extreme rainfall. Instead, it may have acted like turning up the moisture supply before the storm began.Research suggests that a negative PDO creates atmospheric conditions that can strengthen the Indian summer monsoon by influencing tropical wind circulation and the Walker circulation.One consequence is stronger moisture transport from the Arabian Sea into western India. That means when active monsoon winds, low-pressure systems and favourable upper-level winds arrive, there is simply more moisture available to produce intense rainfall.Studies have also linked negative PDO phases with above-normal monsoon rainfall across parts of west-central India, including Gujarat, although researchers stress this relationship emerges over long climate records rather than explaining individual storms.If La Niña-like conditions are also present, the two can reinforce each other, making the monsoon even more active.<h2>Why didn't forecasts focus on the PDO?</h2>Because the PDO is not designed for short-term weather forecasting. Weather agencies such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and NOAA rely primarily on ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), sea surface temperatures and evolving monsoon systems because these have a more immediate influence on seasonal rainfall.The PDO behaves differently. Its influence is gradual, indirect and often intertwined with other climate drivers, making it difficult to isolate in operational forecasts.That is why scientists often examine its role after an extreme weather event through attribution studies rather than using it as a primary forecasting tool.Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/shame-on-a-country-that-sonam-wangchuk-slams-haters-rejects-deal-claims-after-ending-26-day-fast-1784942784502">'Shame on a country that...': Sonam Wangchuk slams haters after ending fast</a><h2>Does Gujarat's flood mean forecasting models need to change?</h2>Not necessarily; researchers have emphasised that no single climate pattern explains extreme rainfall. They say that Gujarat's heavy rains were likely produced by a combination of active southwest monsoon conditions, strong Arabian Sea moisture, low-pressure systems, local atmospheric instability, large-scale climate drivers such as ENSO, the IOD and the MJO, and a potentially favourable background created by the negative PDO.Rather than replacing existing forecasting methods, many climate scientists argue that better ocean observations, higher-resolution models and improved representation of long-term oscillations such as the PDO, IOD and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could improve seasonal forecasting. &nbsp;

Could a little-known Pacific climate cycle have quietly amplified Gujarat's devastating rainfall? WION Decodes what the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, how it differs from El Niño, and why scientists believe it may have strengthened this year's monsoon.

Gujarat's cloudburst has put El Niño back in the spotlight. But scientists are now looking at a far slower climate cycle that could have quietly amplified the monsoon. It is known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. What is it? WION Decodes. Gujarat's most intense rain spell The Western India state recently received more than 400 mm of rain in just a few hours. The immediate question everyone asked was: Is El Niño to blame? However, as researchers piece together what fueled one of the state's most intense rainfall episodes, another climate phenomenon has entered the conversation. It is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-term ocean cycle that can quietly shape weather patterns for decades. Unlike El Niño or La Niña, which dominate headlines every few years, the PDO rarely makes the news. Yet scientists say its current negative phase may have created conditions that allowed the Indian monsoon to become unusually vigorous over western India. So what exactly is the PDO, and could it have played a role in Gujarat floods? Also read | Assam flood deaths rise to 61; 80,000 still stranded without relief What is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? Think of the PDO as El Niño's slower, longer-lived version. It is a climate pattern driven by changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the North Pacific Ocean. Instead of flipping every year or two, the PDO remains in one phase for 20 to 30 years, shaping the background climate over entire decades. The PDO has two phases: - Positive PDO: Warmer-than-normal waters develop along the eastern Pacific near North America, while the central North Pacific becomes cooler. - Negative PDO: In this, the pattern reverses, with cooler eastern Pacific waters and warmer conditions farther west. These shifts influence jet streams, storm tracks, wind circulation and moisture transport far beyond the Pacific. Isn't this just El Niño by another name? While it seems similar to El Niño, it's different. Both involve the Pacific Ocean, but they operate on different time scales and in different regions. El Niño and La Niña are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and develop in the equatorial Pacific, typically lasting 9 to 18 months. The PDO, by contrast, occurs mainly in the North Pacific and can remain in one phase for two or even three decades. Rather than replacing El Niño or La Niña, the PDO can amplify or weaken their effects. https://www.wionews.com/videos/gujarat-flood-crisis-22-000-people-relocated-1-200-rescued-after-record-rainfall-in-south-gujarat-1784884327060/embed So how could the PDO have influenced Gujarat's rainfall? Scientists caution that the PDO did not directly cause Gujarat's extreme rainfall. Instead, it may have acted like turning up the moisture supply before the storm began. Research suggests that a negative PDO creates atmospheric conditions that can strengthen the Indian summer monsoon by influencing tropical wind circulation and the Walker circulation. One consequence is stronger moisture transport from the Arabian Sea into western India. That means when active monsoon winds, low-pressure systems and favourable upper-level winds arrive, there is simply more moisture available to produce intense rainfall. Studies have also linked negative PDO phases with above-normal monsoon rainfall across parts of west-central India, including Gujarat, although researchers stress this relationship emerges over long climate records rather than explaining individual storms. If La Niña-like conditions are also present, the two can reinforce each other, making the monsoon even more active. Why didn't forecasts focus on the PDO? Because the PDO is not designed for short-term weather forecasting. Weather agencies such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and NOAA rely primarily on ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), sea surface temperatures and evolving monsoon systems because these have a more immediate influence on seasonal rainfall. The PDO behaves differently. Its influence is gradual, indirect and often intertwined with other climate drivers, making it difficult to isolate in operational forecasts. That is why scientists often examine its role after an extreme weather event through attribution studies rather than using it as a primary forecasting tool. Also read | 'Shame on a country that...': Sonam Wangchuk slams haters after ending fast Does Gujarat's flood mean forecasting models need to change? Not necessarily; researchers have emphasised that no single climate pattern explains extreme rainfall. They say that Gujarat's heavy rains were likely produced by a combination of active southwest monsoon conditions, strong Arabian Sea moisture, low-pressure systems, local atmospheric instability, large-scale climate drivers such as ENSO, the IOD and the MJO, and a potentially favourable background created by the negative PDO. Rather than replacing existing forecasting methods, many climate scientists argue that better ocean observations, higher-resolution models and improved representation of long-term oscillations such as the PDO, IOD and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could improve seasonal forecasting.

Could a little-known Pacific climate cycle have quietly amplified Gujarat's devastating rainfall? WION Decodes what the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is, how it differs from El Niño, and why scientists believe it may have strengthened this year's monsoon.

Did scientists miss the real reason behind Gujarat's record rain? Meet the Pacific Decadal Oscillation | WION Decodes

As meteorological agencies sound the alarm over a looming El Niño during the 2026 monsoon, experts are increasingly advocating for massive tree-planting initiatives to safeguard India’s vulnerable agricultural sector. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently issued an El Niño Watch, projecting an 80% probability of development between June and August, which surges to nearly 90% by year-end. This warming of the Pacific Ocean historically disrupts the Indian monsoon, threatening a country where nearly half of all cultivable land relies entirely on rain. Regions already plagued by acute water scarcity and recurring droughts—such as Rajasthan, Bundelkhand, and Marathwada face the highest risk. To mitigate this, agricultural experts are championing trees as vital ecological infrastructure. Beyond providing shade, trees restore the hydrological cycle; their deep roots facilitate groundwater recharge, while their dense canopies reduce soil temperature and drastically slow down evaporation during extreme heat spells.&nbsp;Moreover, scientists have found that some trees use a trick called hydraulic lift, pulling up water from deep underground and releasing some of it closer to the surface. That moisture gives nearby crops and soil organisms a real boost during dry times.&nbsp;“But the benefits don’t stop there. Tree plantations turn into havens for birds, insects, and pollinators. That means more bees and other species helping with pollination, which keeps fields productive; birds help by spreading seeds and keeping ecosystems healthy,” said Dr. Aneesha Dalmia, member of Partners for Water Access and Better Harvests in India.&nbsp;“For farmers facing a future with uncertain weather, fruit trees can make all the difference. Unlike annual crops that might fail if the rains don’t come, fruit trees are often sturdier. Even during the bad year, the farmers offer some harvest, which helps in giving families food and another source of income to fall back on when traditional crops let them down. Moreover, experts believe that tree plantations need to be part of a bigger plan—mixed with agroforestry, soil conservation, rainwater harvesting and drought-resistant crops. This way, whole communities become more resilient, not just individual farms,” she added.&nbsp;India’s approach to climate resilience is evolving from short-term crisis management to long-term strategic planning. Central to this shift is a growing realisation that trees are far more than mere tools for carbon capture or land restoration; they are vital green infrastructure. By recharging groundwater, supporting biodiversity, boosting local economies, and buffering communities against extreme weather, trees are foundational to ecological survival. With another El Niño looming in 2026, investing heavily in agroforestry and tree cover stands out as one of the most effective strategies to safeguard Indian agriculture for the future.

With the WMO projecting up to a 90% chance of El Niño disrupting the 2026 monsoon, experts urge massive tree-planting to safeguard India's rain-dependent farms.

As meteorological agencies sound the alarm over a looming El Niño during the 2026 monsoon, experts are increasingly advocating for massive tree-planting initiatives to safeguard India’s vulnerable agricultural sector. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently issued an El Niño Watch, projecting an 80% probability of development between June and August, which surges to nearly 90% by year-end. This warming of the Pacific Ocean historically disrupts the Indian monsoon, threatening a country where nearly half of all cultivable land relies entirely on rain. Regions already plagued by acute water scarcity and recurring droughts—such as Rajasthan, Bundelkhand, and Marathwada face the highest risk. To mitigate this, agricultural experts are championing trees as vital ecological infrastructure. Beyond providing shade, trees restore the hydrological cycle; their deep roots facilitate groundwater recharge, while their dense canopies reduce soil temperature and drastically slow down evaporation during extreme heat spells. Moreover, scientists have found that some trees use a trick called hydraulic lift, pulling up water from deep underground and releasing some of it closer to the surface. That moisture gives nearby crops and soil organisms a real boost during dry times. “But the benefits don’t stop there. Tree plantations turn into havens for birds, insects, and pollinators. That means more bees and other species helping with pollination, which keeps fields productive; birds help by spreading seeds and keeping ecosystems healthy,” said Dr. Aneesha Dalmia, member of Partners for Water Access and Better Harvests in India. “For farmers facing a future with uncertain weather, fruit trees can make all the difference. Unlike annual crops that might fail if the rains don’t come, fruit trees are often sturdier. Even during the bad year, the farmers offer some harvest, which helps in giving families food and another source of income to fall back on when traditional crops let them down. Moreover, experts believe that tree plantations need to be part of a bigger plan—mixed with agroforestry, soil conservation, rainwater harvesting and drought-resistant crops. This way, whole communities become more resilient, not just individual farms,” she added. India’s approach to climate resilience is evolving from short-term crisis management to long-term strategic planning. Central to this shift is a growing realisation that trees are far more than mere tools for carbon capture or land restoration; they are vital green infrastructure. By recharging groundwater, supporting biodiversity, boosting local economies, and buffering communities against extreme weather, trees are foundational to ecological survival. With another El Niño looming in 2026, investing heavily in agroforestry and tree cover stands out as one of the most effective strategies to safeguard Indian agriculture for the future.

With the WMO projecting up to a 90% chance of El Niño disrupting the 2026 monsoon, experts urge massive tree-planting to safeguard India's rain-dependent farms.

90% El Niño certainty: Why trees are India’s best defence against agrarian crisis

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Did scientists miss the real reason behind Gujarat's record rain? Meet the Pacific Decadal Oscillation | WION Decodes

Green Shield: Can tree planting defuse India’s 2026 El Niño?