India's Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday (April 19) released daily coronavirus (COVID-19) data that was recorded in the last 24 hours.&nbsp;

The data shows a steep decline in Covid cases as it recorded 1,247 infections in the past 24 hours as compared to 2,183 on Monday.&nbsp;

The sudden jump in cases on Monday caused panic among locals as many thought that the fourth Covid wave in the country is likely.&nbsp;

However, an expert has weighed in on the same as he refuted the claims. Manindra Agrawal, who is a professor at IIT Kanpur said that the fourth wave of Covid is unlikely.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india/delhi-records-over-500-covid-19-cases-no-mandatory-rtpcr-required-for-domestic-air-travel-472034">Delhi records over 500 COVID-19 cases; no mandatory RT-PCR required for domestic air travel</a>

As quoted by an India-based media outlet India Today, Agrawal explained that there are no new mutants that have come to the notice of the officials.&nbsp;

Agrawal's mathematical model related to various coronavirus trends in the country had been used as a reference to study and analyse Covid activity.&nbsp;

While speaking to the media outlet, Agrawal said that the chances of the fourth wave in India are lesser as the natural immunity against coronavirus among the people is above ninety per cent.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/covid-19-shanghai-reports-seven-deaths-as-the-virus-toll-rises-472041">COVID-19: Shanghai reports seven deaths as the virus toll rises</a>

Referring to the rise in cases, he told the website, "Recently, schools have opened and people have stopped using masks so there is an increased exposure to the variant."&nbsp;

"But this will not have a severe impact on people's health as the immunity to the current variant is strong," he added.&nbsp;

WATCH |&nbsp;China reports more deaths as Covid count rises to 10

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India's Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday (April 19) released daily coronavirus (COVID-19) data that was recorded in the last 24 hours. The data shows a steep decline in Covid cases as it recorded 1,247 infections in the past 24 hours as compared to 2,183 on Monday.

India's Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday (April 19) released daily coronavirus (COVID-19) data that was recorded in the last 24 hours. The data shows a steep decline in Covid cases as it recorded 1,247 infections in the past 24 hours as compared to 2,183 on Monday. The sudden jump in cases on Monday caused panic among locals as many thought that the fourth Covid wave in the country is likely. However, an expert has weighed in on the same as he refuted the claims. Manindra Agrawal, who is a professor at IIT Kanpur said that the fourth wave of Covid is unlikely. ALSO READ | Delhi records over 500 COVID-19 cases; no mandatory RT-PCR required for domestic air travel As quoted by an India-based media outlet India Today, Agrawal explained that there are no new mutants that have come to the notice of the officials. Agrawal's mathematical model related to various coronavirus trends in the country had been used as a reference to study and analyse Covid activity. While speaking to the media outlet, Agrawal said that the chances of the fourth wave in India are lesser as the natural immunity against coronavirus among the people is above ninety per cent. ALSO READ | COVID-19: Shanghai reports seven deaths as the virus toll rises Referring to the rise in cases, he told the website, "Recently, schools have opened and people have stopped using masks so there is an increased exposure to the variant." "But this will not have a severe impact on people's health as the immunity to the current variant is strong," he added. WATCH | China reports more deaths as Covid count rises to 10 ×

COVID-19 in India: Expert weighs in on reports of fourth wave

The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may peak by February 3, 2022, claims a modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur.

However, the forecast is based on the assumption that India will follow the trends of rising in cases seen in many countries globally driven by the Omicron variant of coronavirus.

The IIT study came even as the government said on Friday that the world is witnessing the fourth surge in COVID-19 cases, and cautioned people against lowering the guard, particularly during year-end festivities.

Officials said the predominant strain in India continued to be Delta and urged people to avoid crowding and unnecessary travel while maintaining COVID-19-appropriate behaviour.

ALSO READ | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/358-omicron-cases-in-india-says-govt-uttar-pradesh-state-imposes-night-curfew-439684">358 Omicron cases in India, says govt; Uttar Pradesh state imposes night curfew</a>

The yet-to-be peer-reviewed study, posted on the preprint repository MedRxiv on December 21, used a statistical tool named the Gaussian Mixture model to forecast the third wave.

In their study, the researchers used data from countries such as the US, UK, Germany, and Russia that are already facing the third COVID-19 wave.

They modelled the daily data of cases in these countries to predict the impact and timeline for the third wave in India.

The study also used the data from the first and second waves in India, considering the number of cases with respect to time.

The model forecasts India's third wave of COVID-19 to peak in the beginning of February 2022.

"The cases start rising around 15 December 2021 and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, 3 February 2022,"&nbsp;they wrote in the research paper.

ALSO READ | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/from-oxygen-supply-to-omicron-threat-10-key-highlights-of-pm-narendra-modis-covid-review-meeting-439451">From oxygen supply to Omicron threat: 10 key highlights of PM Narendra Modi's Covid review meeting</a>

The authors of the study noted that the conclusions are based on the assumptions that a third wave of COVID-19 may hit the country, and will follow the trends happening around the world.

However, the researchers noted that the exact peak number of cases cannot be estimated accurately with the study as it did not consider the vaccination data of the population.

The research team comprised of Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh, all from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT Kanpur.

The authors noted that the vaccination campaign by the union government is a good initiative but it will take some time to reach "100 per cent efficacy".

"In many countries like the US, UK, Germany, Russia, the majority of the people have been vaccinated but still they are currently facing the third wave," the authors explained.

"So, India and other countries have to build up the defences and be prepared for another wave so that it is not as devastating as the earlier ones," they added.

According to the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, the third wave of COVID-19 is expected to peak in early next year but would be milder than the second wave.

The members of the committee said last week that daily caseload in India is expected to increase once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant.

India on Friday recorded 122 cases of the Omicron variant of coronavirus in a span of 24 hours, the highest so far, pushing its tally in the country to 358.

Overall, the country reported 6,650 fresh COVID-19 cases, increasing the country's caseload to 3,47,72,626, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said.

The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may peak by February 3, 2022, claims a modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur.

The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may peak by February 3, 2022, claims a modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur. However, the forecast is based on the assumption that India will follow the trends of rising in cases seen in many countries globally driven by the Omicron variant of coronavirus. The IIT study came even as the government said on Friday that the world is witnessing the fourth surge in COVID-19 cases, and cautioned people against lowering the guard, particularly during year-end festivities. Officials said the predominant strain in India continued to be Delta and urged people to avoid crowding and unnecessary travel while maintaining COVID-19-appropriate behaviour. ALSO READ | 358 Omicron cases in India, says govt; Uttar Pradesh state imposes night curfew The yet-to-be peer-reviewed study, posted on the preprint repository MedRxiv on December 21, used a statistical tool named the Gaussian Mixture model to forecast the third wave. In their study, the researchers used data from countries such as the US, UK, Germany, and Russia that are already facing the third COVID-19 wave. They modelled the daily data of cases in these countries to predict the impact and timeline for the third wave in India. The study also used the data from the first and second waves in India, considering the number of cases with respect to time. The model forecasts India's third wave of COVID-19 to peak in the beginning of February 2022. "The cases start rising around 15 December 2021 and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, 3 February 2022," they wrote in the research paper. ALSO READ | From oxygen supply to Omicron threat: 10 key highlights of PM Narendra Modi's Covid review meeting The authors of the study noted that the conclusions are based on the assumptions that a third wave of COVID-19 may hit the country, and will follow the trends happening around the world. However, the researchers noted that the exact peak number of cases cannot be estimated accurately with the study as it did not consider the vaccination data of the population. The research team comprised of Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh, all from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT Kanpur. The authors noted that the vaccination campaign by the union government is a good initiative but it will take some time to reach "100 per cent efficacy". "In many countries like the US, UK, Germany, Russia, the majority of the people have been vaccinated but still they are currently facing the third wave," the authors explained. "So, India and other countries have to build up the defences and be prepared for another wave so that it is not as devastating as the earlier ones," they added. According to the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, the third wave of COVID-19 is expected to peak in early next year but would be milder than the second wave. The members of the committee said last week that daily caseload in India is expected to increase once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant. India on Friday recorded 122 cases of the Omicron variant of coronavirus in a span of 24 hours, the highest so far, pushing its tally in the country to 358. Overall, the country reported 6,650 fresh COVID-19 cases, increasing the country's caseload to 3,47,72,626, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said.

IIT-Kanpur study tells when third COVID-19 wave in India may peak

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COVID-19 in India: Expert weighs in on reports of fourth wave

IIT-Kanpur study tells when third COVID-19 wave in India may peak