A new study has found that domestic travel bans to control Covid infections may be inadvisable as India battles a severe second wave of the deadly virus.

Depending on their duration, these restrictions can lead to more rather than fewer infections overall, especially when there is a large urban-rural migrant population, it indicated.

As India battles a severe second wave of COVID-19, state governments are once again faced with the question: Should they use travel bans to control disease transmission?

In the first wave of COVID-19, most states chose this option. The hardships faced by migrant workers prevented them from returning home to their villages were seen as a necessary sacrifice to reduce the spread of disease into rural India.

In the second wave, the Delhi government has urged migrants not to leave. Other cities may follow suit. A new research paper by academics at the University of Chicago suggests that imposing travel bans can counter-intuitively increase the total spread of the disease, creating a lose-lose situation.

This outcome occurs when a country has a large migrant population that is prevented from leaving an urban hotspot and returning to rural areas. The researchers show that if the net effect of a travel ban is to delay the movement of these people, rather than prevent it entirely, the policy can lead to more cases overall.

The paper uses detailed data on rural-urban migration, travel ban policies, and COVID-19 cases to show that this lose-lose outcome occurred in India during the first wave, due to travel bans imposed on migrants wishing to leave Mumbai.

Elaborating on the findings, Anant Sudarshan, South Asia Director of The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and one of the study authors, said: "The national lockdown in the first wave trapped millions of migrants inside big cities like Mumbai that were fast-growing coronavirus hotspots.

"Eventually people were able to leave, but variations in government policy meant that the length of time they were detained depended on where they wanted to go. In the case of rural districts where people could return quicker—using the Shramik Special Trains for example—cases rose modestly at the destination.

"But for those areas where bans were in effect longer, there was a much more intensive coronavirus increase, likely because the returning population was now more likely to be infected, having been trapped in the hotspot longer."

Apart from Mumbai, the paper further analyses data from five other countries where migration is prevalent—China, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, and Kenya.

Together these countries comprise roughly 40% of the global population and all of them had initial outbreaks in a few hotspot locations.

The researchers used epidemiological data, migration data, and information on travel bans from all these countries to show that although exceptionally long bans may work to reduce total cases, moderate durations are associated with significant increases in disease spread.

Fiona Burlig, Assistant Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, one of the co-authors of the study, adds: "The evidence indicates that if the duration of a travel ban is not long enough, we may end up imposing hardship on people while perversely seeing more spread of infection.

"Getting the duration wrong is easy because it is not possible to predict in advance what the optimal length should be, and in a democracy, such restrictions cannot be easily sustained. There may be merit in letting people go home early, and indeed encouraging them to do so, rather than forcing them to stay."

(With inputs from agencies)

A new study has found that domestic travel bans to control Covid infections may be inadvisable as India battles a severe second wave of the deadly virus. Depending on their duration, these restrictions can lead to more rather than fewer infections overall, especially when there is a large urban-rural migrant population, it indicated.

A new study has found that domestic travel bans to control Covid infections may be inadvisable as India battles a severe second wave of the deadly virus. Depending on their duration, these restrictions can lead to more rather than fewer infections overall, especially when there is a large urban-rural migrant population, it indicated. As India battles a severe second wave of COVID-19, state governments are once again faced with the question: Should they use travel bans to control disease transmission? In the first wave of COVID-19, most states chose this option. The hardships faced by migrant workers prevented them from returning home to their villages were seen as a necessary sacrifice to reduce the spread of disease into rural India. In the second wave, the Delhi government has urged migrants not to leave. Other cities may follow suit. A new research paper by academics at the University of Chicago suggests that imposing travel bans can counter-intuitively increase the total spread of the disease, creating a lose-lose situation. This outcome occurs when a country has a large migrant population that is prevented from leaving an urban hotspot and returning to rural areas. The researchers show that if the net effect of a travel ban is to delay the movement of these people, rather than prevent it entirely, the policy can lead to more cases overall. The paper uses detailed data on rural-urban migration, travel ban policies, and COVID-19 cases to show that this lose-lose outcome occurred in India during the first wave, due to travel bans imposed on migrants wishing to leave Mumbai. Elaborating on the findings, Anant Sudarshan, South Asia Director of The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and one of the study authors, said: "The national lockdown in the first wave trapped millions of migrants inside big cities like Mumbai that were fast-growing coronavirus hotspots. "Eventually people were able to leave, but variations in government policy meant that the length of time they were detained depended on where they wanted to go. In the case of rural districts where people could return quicker—using the Shramik Special Trains for example—cases rose modestly at the destination. "But for those areas where bans were in effect longer, there was a much more intensive coronavirus increase, likely because the returning population was now more likely to be infected, having been trapped in the hotspot longer." Apart from Mumbai, the paper further analyses data from five other countries where migration is prevalent—China, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, and Kenya. Together these countries comprise roughly 40% of the global population and all of them had initial outbreaks in a few hotspot locations. The researchers used epidemiological data, migration data, and information on travel bans from all these countries to show that although exceptionally long bans may work to reduce total cases, moderate durations are associated with significant increases in disease spread. Fiona Burlig, Assistant Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, one of the co-authors of the study, adds: "The evidence indicates that if the duration of a travel ban is not long enough, we may end up imposing hardship on people while perversely seeing more spread of infection. "Getting the duration wrong is easy because it is not possible to predict in advance what the optimal length should be, and in a democracy, such restrictions cannot be easily sustained. There may be merit in letting people go home early, and indeed encouraging them to do so, rather than forcing them to stay." (With inputs from agencies)

Domestic travel curbs can lead to more COVID-19 cases: Study

With Assembly polls due early next year in the city, the Aam Aadmi Party government is considering to make metro and bus travel free for women in Delhi "to encourage them to use public transport".

At a public meeting in New Delhi Saturday, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal also said his government is in touch with city's power regulator to bring down fixed charge component of electricity bill.

"The government is considering to waive fare for women in DTC buses and Delhi Metro to encourage them to use public transport in view of their safety.

An announcement in this regard will be made on June 3," the chief minister said at the public meeting in New Delhi.

A Delhi government official said Transport Minister Kailash Gahlot has already taken meetings to discuss various aspects of fare-waiver to women in all public transport buses -- run by DTC and DIMTS -- and Delhi metro.

However, Transport Department officials point out that while allowing free travel in Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) and cluster buses run by the Delhi Integrated Multi Modal System(DIMTS) may not be difficult, it will be "challenging" to do so in Metro trains.

The Delhi government and the Centre are 50:50 equity partners in the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation.

An official pointed out that the Delhi government and the centre's Housing and Urban Affairs Ministry have not been on the same page over several issues related to metro, including fare hike and Phase-IV of the Metro network.

"Besides other factors like technical and financial feasibility of such a move, the persisting disagreements between the two sides may also play a crucial role in going ahead with the proposal for giving free ride to women in Metro trains," said a senior official.

Chief Minister Kejriwal also claimed that the fixed charge component of power tariff were raised by the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Authority (DERC) last year "without consulting" the Delhi government.

"Next month new tariff is to be fixed. We have asked the DERC to bring back fixed charges to previous levels and they are likely to agree to it," he said.

The monthly fixed charges were raised for domestic consumers having up to 2 KW load from Rs 20 to Rs 125.

The Delhi government provides subsidy to such consumers.

However, in other categories, consumers pay higher fixed charges.

The hike in fixed charges for other slabs were -- for 2-5 kw, from Rs 35 to Rs 140; 5-15 KW, Rs 45 to Rs 175; 15-25 kw, from Rs 60 to Rs 200; and for more than 25 KW, from Rs 100 to Rs 250.

In the just-concluded Lok Sabha polls, the AAP won only one seat out of over 40 it contested in nine states and Union Territories.

The poll results came as a jolt to the party as it builds up for the assembly elections in Delhi early next year.

Stung by the dismal performance, the AAP government swung into action just a day after the Model Code of Conduct was lifted with Chief Minister directing his ministers on May 27 to speed up work on flagship schemes like Mohalla Clinic, procurement of buses and the CCTV project.

With Assembly polls due early next year in the city, the Aam Aadmi Party government is considering to make metro and bus travel free for women in Delhi "to encourage them to use public transport".

With Assembly polls due early next year in the city, the Aam Aadmi Party government is considering to make metro and bus travel free for women in Delhi "to encourage them to use public transport". At a public meeting in New Delhi Saturday, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal also said his government is in touch with city's power regulator to bring down fixed charge component of electricity bill. "The government is considering to waive fare for women in DTC buses and Delhi Metro to encourage them to use public transport in view of their safety. An announcement in this regard will be made on June 3," the chief minister said at the public meeting in New Delhi. A Delhi government official said Transport Minister Kailash Gahlot has already taken meetings to discuss various aspects of fare-waiver to women in all public transport buses -- run by DTC and DIMTS -- and Delhi metro. However, Transport Department officials point out that while allowing free travel in Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) and cluster buses run by the Delhi Integrated Multi Modal System(DIMTS) may not be difficult, it will be "challenging" to do so in Metro trains. The Delhi government and the Centre are 50:50 equity partners in the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation. An official pointed out that the Delhi government and the centre's Housing and Urban Affairs Ministry have not been on the same page over several issues related to metro, including fare hike and Phase-IV of the Metro network. "Besides other factors like technical and financial feasibility of such a move, the persisting disagreements between the two sides may also play a crucial role in going ahead with the proposal for giving free ride to women in Metro trains," said a senior official. Chief Minister Kejriwal also claimed that the fixed charge component of power tariff were raised by the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Authority (DERC) last year "without consulting" the Delhi government. "Next month new tariff is to be fixed. We have asked the DERC to bring back fixed charges to previous levels and they are likely to agree to it," he said. The monthly fixed charges were raised for domestic consumers having up to 2 KW load from Rs 20 to Rs 125. The Delhi government provides subsidy to such consumers. However, in other categories, consumers pay higher fixed charges. The hike in fixed charges for other slabs were -- for 2-5 kw, from Rs 35 to Rs 140; 5-15 KW, Rs 45 to Rs 175; 15-25 kw, from Rs 60 to Rs 200; and for more than 25 KW, from Rs 100 to Rs 250. In the just-concluded Lok Sabha polls, the AAP won only one seat out of over 40 it contested in nine states and Union Territories. The poll results came as a jolt to the party as it builds up for the assembly elections in Delhi early next year. Stung by the dismal performance, the AAP government swung into action just a day after the Model Code of Conduct was lifted with Chief Minister directing his ministers on May 27 to speed up work on flagship schemes like Mohalla Clinic, procurement of buses and the CCTV project.

Delhi government plans to make metro, bus travel free for women: Arvind Kejriwal

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