India is facing a fresh food inflation warning as rising edible oil prices, global supply disruptions and weather risks threaten to put additional pressure on household budgets. Inflation is now expected to average around 5.1%, more than double last year's 2% level, with risks tilted to the upside.

Edible oil has emerged as a major pressure point, with packed sunflower oil prices rising around 18%, palm oil around 14%, soybean oil nearly 12%, groundnut oil over 9% and mustard oil more than 7%.

India imports more than half of the edible oil it consumes, making domestic prices highly sensitive to developments in global markets. The Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions in the Black Sea are adding further uncertainty, as Russia and Ukraine remain major suppliers of sunflower products and other agricultural commodities.

At the same time, El Niño-related weather risks could affect India's monsoon and reduce yields of oilseeds such as soybean, groundnut and mustard. While India's food-grain inventories remain relatively strong and rainfall has improved, rising energy and transport costs, global commodity pressures and weather uncertainty could keep food inflation elevated.

India Food Inflation Warning: Edible Oil Prices Surge, Black Sea War And El Niño Raise Household Cost Risks

Russia has launched another wave of heavy airstrikes across Ukraine, targeting residential areas and a hospital in Zaporizhzhia, leaving multiple civilians injured. As the war intensifies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced plans to jointly produce Patriot missile interceptors with US defense giant Raytheon to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. The latest attacks have also disrupted Black Sea shipping, pushing global wheat prices higher and raising concerns over international food security. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to urge Western allies to accelerate military assistance as Russian missile and drone attacks intensify.

Russia-Ukraine war escalates|  Zelensky pushes patriot missile production as Black sea crisis deepens

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India Food Inflation Warning: Edible Oil Prices Surge, Black Sea War And El Niño Raise Household Cost Risks

Russia-Ukraine war escalates| Zelensky pushes patriot missile production as Black sea crisis deepens