India might have regained the status of the world&#39;s fastest-growing major economy in the October-December quarter, driven by higher government spending and a pick-up in manufacturing and services.

The median in a Reuters poll on annual growth in the December quarter was 6.9 percent, the best pace in 2017. Forecasts ranged from 6.4 percent to 7.3 percent.

The government will release GDP data on Wednesday around 1200 GMT.

If there was 6.9 percent growth, that would top China&#39;s 6.8 percent annual pace for October-December. The last time India had a faster growth rate was in the final three months of 2016.

India&#39;s expected improvement on its 6.3 percent growth in July-September comes as its manufacturing and services sector have been overcoming teething troubles rooted in the bumpy launch of a national sales tax in July.

Also read:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/india-to-grow-at-76-in-2018-moodys-34306" target="_blank">India to grow at 7.6% in 2018, says Moody&#39;s</a>

&quot;After muted activity until September, signs of a pick-up in economic growth are starting to appear,&quot; said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA, the India arm of rating agency Moody&#39;s.

A strong gross domestic product reading could lift domestic shares, and boost the rupee, which has been Asia&#39;s second weakest currency this year, losing about 1.6 percent against the dollar.

The GDP data could help Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces criticism over mounting bad loans of state banks and a $1.77 billion fraud at state lender Punjab National Bank &lt;PNB.NS&gt;, the biggest in the country&#39;s banking history.

Last week, Modi told industrialists that his government, which got a &quot;twin balance sheet&quot; problem resulting from bad debt in banks and many businesses, was determined to put the economy back on a higher growth trajectory.

Modi is trying to accelerate growth through higher state spending including 2.1 trillion rupees ($32.36 billion) for recapitalisation of state banks, beset with mounting bad loans of nearly $148 billion.

He has stepped up spending on infrastructure and welfare projects to boost growth ahead of national elections in 2019. This has widened the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year, ending in March, to 3.5 percent of GDP, instead of the earlier projected 3.2 percent.

In November, Moody&#39;s raised India&#39;s investment grade rating one notch, the rating agency&#39;s first upgrade in nearly 14 years.

NASCENT RECOVERY

India jumped 30 places to break into the top 100 for the first time in World Bank&#39;s Doing Business report 2018.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts India&#39;s economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018 and 7.8 percent in 2019, overtaking rates projected for China of 6.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.

The world&#39;s seventh largest economy, which grew at more than 9 percent a year from 2005 through 2008, is still far from firing on all cylinders. Domestic demand and private investment remain weak.

Urjit Patel, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), earlier this month said the economic recovery was at a nascent stage and called for a cautious approach. The central bank has kept its key rate unchanged since a 25 basis points cut in August.

India&#39;s investment rate fell close to 30 percent of GDP in 2017 from a peak of 40 percent in 2011.

New Delhi is worried that higher global crude oil prices pose a major risk to its efforts to regain growth momentum as this could hit domestic investment and push up consumer price inflation.

A Reuters poll said India would grow at 6.9 percent, which would top China's 6.8 percent annual pace for October-December

India might have regained the status of the world's fastest-growing major economy in the October-December quarter, driven by higher government spending and a pick-up in manufacturing and services. The median in a Reuters poll on annual growth in the December quarter was 6.9 percent, the best pace in 2017. Forecasts ranged from 6.4 percent to 7.3 percent. The government will release GDP data on Wednesday around 1200 GMT. If there was 6.9 percent growth, that would top China's 6.8 percent annual pace for October-December. The last time India had a faster growth rate was in the final three months of 2016. India's expected improvement on its 6.3 percent growth in July-September comes as its manufacturing and services sector have been overcoming teething troubles rooted in the bumpy launch of a national sales tax in July. Also read: India to grow at 7.6% in 2018, says Moody's "After muted activity until September, signs of a pick-up in economic growth are starting to appear," said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA, the India arm of rating agency Moody's. A strong gross domestic product reading could lift domestic shares, and boost the rupee, which has been Asia's second weakest currency this year, losing about 1.6 percent against the dollar. The GDP data could help Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces criticism over mounting bad loans of state banks and a $1.77 billion fraud at state lender Punjab National Bank <PNB.NS>, the biggest in the country's banking history. Last week, Modi told industrialists that his government, which got a "twin balance sheet" problem resulting from bad debt in banks and many businesses, was determined to put the economy back on a higher growth trajectory. Modi is trying to accelerate growth through higher state spending including 2.1 trillion rupees ($32.36 billion) for recapitalisation of state banks, beset with mounting bad loans of nearly $148 billion. He has stepped up spending on infrastructure and welfare projects to boost growth ahead of national elections in 2019. This has widened the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year, ending in March, to 3.5 percent of GDP, instead of the earlier projected 3.2 percent. In November, Moody's raised India's investment grade rating one notch, the rating agency's first upgrade in nearly 14 years. NASCENT RECOVERY India jumped 30 places to break into the top 100 for the first time in World Bank's Doing Business report 2018. The International Monetary Fund forecasts India's economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018 and 7.8 percent in 2019, overtaking rates projected for China of 6.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. The world's seventh largest economy, which grew at more than 9 percent a year from 2005 through 2008, is still far from firing on all cylinders. Domestic demand and private investment remain weak. Urjit Patel, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), earlier this month said the economic recovery was at a nascent stage and called for a cautious approach. The central bank has kept its key rate unchanged since a 25 basis points cut in August. India's investment rate fell close to 30 percent of GDP in 2017 from a peak of 40 percent in 2011. New Delhi is worried that higher global crude oil prices pose a major risk to its efforts to regain growth momentum as this could hit domestic investment and push up consumer price inflation.

India may have grown faster than China in October-December quarter

India&#39;s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the October-December quarter as consumers, businesses and the government stepped up spending, a Reuters poll predicted.

This suggests that disruptions from a shock ban on high-value currency notes in November 2016 and the chaotic launch of a goods and services tax (GST) in July are fading.

Gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, according to the poll of more than 35 economists, taken over the past week.

If the data, due at 1200 GMT on Feb. 28, matches the consensus, the quarter will have the best growth rate in 2017.

In July-September, the economy grew 6.3 percent annually, a return to a faster growth trajectory after five consecutive quarters of slowdown.

In the latest quarter, &quot;government spending was stronger and private consumption demand was robust as well, as seen in strong growth in auto sales,&quot; said Abhishek Upadhyay, economist at ICICI Securities PD.

&quot;Recent buoyancy in indicators such as cement output also points to recovery in segments such as construction, and real estate that were hit most from demonetization.&quot;

Still, growth in the world&#39;s seventh largest economy is far from the near-double digits pace recorded during the years before the financial crisis.

What has also weighed on the economy is exports, which took a hit last year from an appreciating rupee, which strengthened 6.5 percent against the dollar in 2017.

While down around 1 percent this year, the rupee is not expected to weaken significantly, according to a separate Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.

CONCERN ON BANKING

Economists in the latest poll were also concerned about the increase in non-performing assets of state-run banks, and said if they are not handled effectively it would hurt economic activity.

Adding to those worries, the second biggest state lender, Punjab National Bank this month revealed a loan fraud that&#39;s the biggest in India&#39;s banking history.

The fraud has cast a shadow over the workings of state-run lenders, already reeling from accumulated bad loans accumulated that are higher than those of banks in most major economies.

While stress on bank balance sheets is a drag and the clean-up exercise &quot;may still take time&quot;, it&#39;s likely that economic growth should get better, Upadhyay said.

The poll also predicted India&#39;s gross value-added (GVA) - the growth measure that the government prefers - increased 6.6 percent from a year earlier in October-December from a year earlier, compared to 6.1 percent in the prior three months.

That should provide some relief to the Reserve Bank of India which is performing a delicate balancing act of monitoring inflation and nurturing growth.

Retail inflation eased in January after a 17-month spike in December, but was still above the 4 percent medium-term target of the central bank.

While the RBI kept rates on hold at its Feb. 7 meeting, the minutes showed monetary committee members concerned about the rising inflation rate.

The Reuters poll suggests disruptions from demonetisation and GST are are fading

India's economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the October-December quarter as consumers, businesses and the government stepped up spending, a Reuters poll predicted. This suggests that disruptions from a shock ban on high-value currency notes in November 2016 and the chaotic launch of a goods and services tax (GST) in July are fading. Gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, according to the poll of more than 35 economists, taken over the past week. If the data, due at 1200 GMT on Feb. 28, matches the consensus, the quarter will have the best growth rate in 2017. In July-September, the economy grew 6.3 percent annually, a return to a faster growth trajectory after five consecutive quarters of slowdown. In the latest quarter, "government spending was stronger and private consumption demand was robust as well, as seen in strong growth in auto sales," said Abhishek Upadhyay, economist at ICICI Securities PD. "Recent buoyancy in indicators such as cement output also points to recovery in segments such as construction, and real estate that were hit most from demonetization." Still, growth in the world's seventh largest economy is far from the near-double digits pace recorded during the years before the financial crisis. What has also weighed on the economy is exports, which took a hit last year from an appreciating rupee, which strengthened 6.5 percent against the dollar in 2017. While down around 1 percent this year, the rupee is not expected to weaken significantly, according to a separate Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists. CONCERN ON BANKING Economists in the latest poll were also concerned about the increase in non-performing assets of state-run banks, and said if they are not handled effectively it would hurt economic activity. Adding to those worries, the second biggest state lender, Punjab National Bank this month revealed a loan fraud that's the biggest in India's banking history. The fraud has cast a shadow over the workings of state-run lenders, already reeling from accumulated bad loans accumulated that are higher than those of banks in most major economies. While stress on bank balance sheets is a drag and the clean-up exercise "may still take time", it's likely that economic growth should get better, Upadhyay said. The poll also predicted India's gross value-added (GVA) - the growth measure that the government prefers - increased 6.6 percent from a year earlier in October-December from a year earlier, compared to 6.1 percent in the prior three months. That should provide some relief to the Reserve Bank of India which is performing a delicate balancing act of monitoring inflation and nurturing growth. Retail inflation eased in January after a 17-month spike in December, but was still above the 4 percent medium-term target of the central bank. While the RBI kept rates on hold at its Feb. 7 meeting, the minutes showed monetary committee members concerned about the rising inflation rate.

GDP growth in October-December likely to be 6.9%, best in 2017: Poll

China&#39;s economy grew a forecast-beating 6.9 percent in 2017, picking up steam for the first time since 2010 despite its battles against a massive debt and polluting factories, official data showed Thursday.

The world&#39;s number two economy eclipsed the official target of about 6.5 percent and picked up pace from the 6.7 percent growth seen in 2016, which was the slowest for more than a quarter of a century.

The robust economic expansion indicated stability after slowing down since China last posted double-digit growth in 2010.

&quot;The national economy has maintained the momentum of stable and sound development and exceeded the expectation with the economic vitality, impetus and potential released,&quot; National Statistics Bureau head Ning Jizhe said in a report.

&quot;We should also be aware that there are still difficulties and challenges confronting the economy and the improvement of quality and efficiency remains a daunting task,&quot; Ning said.

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The reading -- which beat the 6.8 percent predicted by analysts surveyed by AFP -- comes as China kicks its war on pollution into gear, halving industrial production for some steel smelters and mills this winter.&nbsp;

The battle has brought unusual blue skies to Beijing, with the density of dangerous pollution -- particulate PM2.5 -- dropping by more than 50 percent in the final quarter of 2017.

But the latest data showed the economy expanding 6.8 percent in the last quarter of 2017, matching the third quarter figure though it was below the 6.9 percent from the first half of the year.

Ning dismissed questions on the reliability of China&#39;s statistics raised after the coastal city of Tianjin and the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia admitted to inflating certain 2016 data.

&quot;The system for calculating China&#39;s statistics data is not affected by a small number of places, or some places, or some companies&quot; having accuracy issues with their data, he said.

The GDP reading follows strong trade data last week, which showed the humming global economy had propelled China&#39;s export machine.&nbsp;

&quot;This momentum, especially the part fuelled by external demand, may carry on well into 2018,&quot; said Wei Yao, chief China economist at Societe Generale.

Debt fears 
The country is also facing pressure to prevent a credit crisis, with local government debt growing 7.5 percent last year to $2.56 trillion, according to figures released Wednesday.

China has largely relied on debt-fuelled investment and exports to drive its tremendous economic growth of the past four decades but it is now seeking to move its economy to more sustainable consumption-based growth.&nbsp;

The latest figures show the services industry grew eight percent for the year with retail sales spiking 10.2 percent, good news for the transition.&nbsp;

The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly warned of risks stemming from China&#39;s ballooning debt, saying last year that each extra dollar of debt is producing diminishing returns for China&#39;s economy.

China&#39;s leaders appeared to wipe away some of those concerns at a critical planning meeting in December.&nbsp;

While vowing a crackdown on financial risk and local government debt, leaders called for a reasonable credit expansion this year.

That flew in the face of IMF and other economists warnings that China must deleverage.

Last year China brought down the pace of debt accumulation but allowed overall credit growth, analysts say.&nbsp;

Potential headwinds 
&quot;The bulls and the bears have never been so much in agreement since the financial crisis,&quot; said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group.

&quot;Most economists expect around 6.5 percent GDP growth in 2018,&quot; Hu said, though one of China&#39;s top state-affiliated think tanks last month forecast growth ticking slightly downwards to 6.7 this year.

But potential headwinds and risks for China&#39;s economy are brewing.

US President Donald Trump is determined to change the balance of trade between the two large trading partners. &nbsp;

China&#39;s trade surplus with the US swelled 10 percent to $275.8 billion last year, a record high.

In a telephone call with President Xi Jinping this week, Trump &quot;expressed disappointment that the United States&#39; trade deficit with China has continued to grow&quot;, the White House said.

&quot;President Trump made clear that the situation is not sustainable.&quot;

Trump has repeatedly insisted he will fight for more equitable trade with China.

The US is expected to release the results of a major investigation into China&#39;s intellectual property practices this year.

The world's number two economy eclipsed the official target of about 6.5 per cent

China's economy grew a forecast-beating 6.9 percent in 2017, picking up steam for the first time since 2010 despite its battles against a massive debt and polluting factories, official data showed Thursday. The world's number two economy eclipsed the official target of about 6.5 percent and picked up pace from the 6.7 percent growth seen in 2016, which was the slowest for more than a quarter of a century. The robust economic expansion indicated stability after slowing down since China last posted double-digit growth in 2010. "The national economy has maintained the momentum of stable and sound development and exceeded the expectation with the economic vitality, impetus and potential released," National Statistics Bureau head Ning Jizhe said in a report. "We should also be aware that there are still difficulties and challenges confronting the economy and the improvement of quality and efficiency remains a daunting task," Ning said. Also read: China gets richer, but inequality grows Also read: Will China's economic might take Nepal away from India? The reading -- which beat the 6.8 percent predicted by analysts surveyed by AFP -- comes as China kicks its war on pollution into gear, halving industrial production for some steel smelters and mills this winter. The battle has brought unusual blue skies to Beijing, with the density of dangerous pollution -- particulate PM2.5 -- dropping by more than 50 percent in the final quarter of 2017. But the latest data showed the economy expanding 6.8 percent in the last quarter of 2017, matching the third quarter figure though it was below the 6.9 percent from the first half of the year. Ning dismissed questions on the reliability of China's statistics raised after the coastal city of Tianjin and the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia admitted to inflating certain 2016 data. "The system for calculating China's statistics data is not affected by a small number of places, or some places, or some companies" having accuracy issues with their data, he said. The GDP reading follows strong trade data last week, which showed the humming global economy had propelled China's export machine. "This momentum, especially the part fuelled by external demand, may carry on well into 2018," said Wei Yao, chief China economist at Societe Generale. Debt fears The country is also facing pressure to prevent a credit crisis, with local government debt growing 7.5 percent last year to $2.56 trillion, according to figures released Wednesday. China has largely relied on debt-fuelled investment and exports to drive its tremendous economic growth of the past four decades but it is now seeking to move its economy to more sustainable consumption-based growth. The latest figures show the services industry grew eight percent for the year with retail sales spiking 10.2 percent, good news for the transition. The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly warned of risks stemming from China's ballooning debt, saying last year that each extra dollar of debt is producing diminishing returns for China's economy. China's leaders appeared to wipe away some of those concerns at a critical planning meeting in December. While vowing a crackdown on financial risk and local government debt, leaders called for a reasonable credit expansion this year. That flew in the face of IMF and other economists warnings that China must deleverage. Last year China brought down the pace of debt accumulation but allowed overall credit growth, analysts say. Potential headwinds "The bulls and the bears have never been so much in agreement since the financial crisis," said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group. "Most economists expect around 6.5 percent GDP growth in 2018," Hu said, though one of China's top state-affiliated think tanks last month forecast growth ticking slightly downwards to 6.7 this year. But potential headwinds and risks for China's economy are brewing. US President Donald Trump is determined to change the balance of trade between the two large trading partners. China's trade surplus with the US swelled 10 percent to $275.8 billion last year, a record high. In a telephone call with President Xi Jinping this week, Trump "expressed disappointment that the United States' trade deficit with China has continued to grow", the White House said. "President Trump made clear that the situation is not sustainable." Trump has repeatedly insisted he will fight for more equitable trade with China. The US is expected to release the results of a major investigation into China's intellectual property practices this year.

China grew at 6.9% in 2017

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India may have grown faster than China in October-December quarter

GDP growth in October-December likely to be 6.9%, best in 2017: Poll

China grew at 6.9% in 2017