<p>'Neck-and-neck' was the keyword ahead of the November 5 elections in the US, with most opinion pollsters predicting a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. When the dust settled, Trump not only emerged the winner with a considerable margin in electoral votes but also got the popular vote. His Republican party went on to take the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, thus sweeping the power trifecta of the world's oldest democracy.</p>

<p><strong>Watch - &nbsp;USA News: Disappointed Americans Consider Moving Abroad After Elections Result</strong></p>

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<p>The pre-election opinion polling, while most of it appeared uniform, was practically one-sided.</p>

<p>The polling results were used by left-liberal and pro-Harris media to bolster her candidacy, arguing that the incumbent vice president is 'doing well' among key voting populations like women, the youth and minorities.</p>

<p>Going into the results night, there was optimism in many news studios aligned with Democrats, but the mood quickly changed as Trump went way ahead way early, winning some swing states besides the usual red states.</p>

<p>CNN anchor John King, famous for his enthusiastic fast-paced result analysis&nbsp;using the US map on a screen dubbed 'magic wall', appeared less exuberant as the results poured in, a scene vastly different from his presentation in 2020 when Biden won.</p>

<p>Much before the final results, he said, "Donald Trump is knocking on the door", adding “He’s going to get there.”</p>

<p>There was a meltdown in the unabashedly pro-Harris MSNBC studio. Anchors and panellists at NBC News, ABC News and CBS News, the other major networks generally seen as favouring Democrats, had a worried and dull look on their faces when announcing the results. The focus immediately turned to discussing how horrible a Trump presidency would be.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Several of them shifted their anger to 'misinformation', blaming Trump backer Elon Musk's social media platform X and conspiracy theories spread by Trump surrogates as reasons for the former president's unassailable victory.</p>

<p>All this amounts to telling the majority of American voters that they are dumb.&nbsp;</p>

<p>But it can be argued that it was the opinion pollsters who tried to misguide and make a fool of the voters by peddling the lie that it was a 'neck-and-neck' race.</p>

<p>Ahead of the election, the FiveThirtyEight website, which tracks the mood of the nation, put Harris ahead of Trump after compiling the last batch of opinion polls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>But the difference was minor: she was ahead at 48 per cent while Trump was at 46.8 per cent.</p>

<p>Among these pollsters, NPR-PBS News, Harris X-Forbes [no relation to Kamala Harris or X] and Ipsos-Reuters gave the highest favourability points to Harris, between 51 and 50 per cent. Only AtlasIntel and ActiVote gave similar percentages to Trump.</p>

<p>On the question of whether voters wanted Republicans or Democrats in Congress, the average of all polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats the edge at 46.3 per cent as against 45.6 per cent for the Republicans. That was proven wrong in the final count.</p>

<p>Interestingly, even Democrat-aligned pollsters found that more people have an unfavourable opinion of Kamala Harris - 48 per cent as opposed to a favourable opinion of 46 per cent.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In their calculations, Trump was seen as unfavourable by nearly 60 per cent of respondents as opposed to 44 per cent that found him favourable.</p>

<p>Come election night, most if not all of these observations fell flat in the face of reality.</p>

<p>The punters and financial markets, overall, had more accuracy in predicting the election win for Trump than pollsters, who apparently use 'scientific' methods and mathematical models to reach their conclusions.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-media-suggests-trumps-lead-in-betting-markets-could-be-manufactured-768907">Also read: US media suggests Trump’s lead in betting markets could be ‘manufactured’</a></strong></p>

<h2><strong>What could have gone wrong?</strong></h2>

<p>Americans who voted for Trump and his Republican party are not fools or 'garbage' as President Joe Biden once characterised them.&nbsp;</p>

<p>They have voted out an unpopular government.&nbsp;</p>

<p>They voted for issues that mattered to them the most: jobs, cost of living and illegal immigration, among other things.</p>

<p>It is as simple as that.</p>

<p><strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-election-opinion-poll-shows-harris-holds-narrow-lead-over-trump-but-razor-thin-edge-starting-to-fray-771577">Also read: US election: Opinion poll shows Harris holds narrow lead over Trump, but razor-thin edge starting to fray</a></strong><br />
<br />
The pollsters failed to assess the public mood on the ground, particularly that of the silent majority.</p>

<p>In their surveying, they may have been talking to the converted, which gave the false impression that Democrats are either leading or giving tough competition to Republicans.</p>

<p>This leaves open several questions on their methodology. How are they collecting data? Who are they approaching with survey questions? Are their survey respondents providing truthful information? Are they always talking to the same people, populations or community groups to create their data sets?</p>

<p>It is not the first time that opinion pollsters, who have had a significant impact on the elections since they came into prominence in 1976, have gone wrong.</p>

<p>But the suspicion now is: which of these pollsters are politically aligned to one party or the other? Could such tacit alliances be leading to lopsided polling that is skewed in favour of the party of their choice?</p>

<p>The lack of accountability, and short public memory, is quite disturbing when it comes to opinion polling and those who conduct them.</p>

<p>With such a wide error margin between their projections and the actual outcome, shouldn't such opinion polling also come under mis/disinformation, the pet term used by left-liberal media to bash Trump?</p>

<p>This is a grey area. Not many strict laws have been implemented on conflict of interest in companies or news organisations doing opinion polling.&nbsp;</p>

<p>But it is high time that they are called out.</p>

<p><strong><em>Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.</em></strong></p>


'Neck-and-neck' was the keyword ahead of the November 5 elections in the US, with most opinion pollsters predicting a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

'Neck-and-neck' was the keyword ahead of the November 5 elections in the US, with most opinion pollsters predicting a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. When the dust settled, Trump not only emerged the winner with a considerable margin in electoral votes but also got the popular vote. His Republican party went on to take the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, thus sweeping the power trifecta of the world's oldest democracy. Watch - USA News: Disappointed Americans Consider Moving Abroad After Elections Result × The pre-election opinion polling, while most of it appeared uniform, was practically one-sided. The polling results were used by left-liberal and pro-Harris media to bolster her candidacy, arguing that the incumbent vice president is 'doing well' among key voting populations like women, the youth and minorities. Going into the results night, there was optimism in many news studios aligned with Democrats, but the mood quickly changed as Trump went way ahead way early, winning some swing states besides the usual red states. CNN anchor John King, famous for his enthusiastic fast-paced result analysis using the US map on a screen dubbed 'magic wall', appeared less exuberant as the results poured in, a scene vastly different from his presentation in 2020 when Biden won. Much before the final results, he said, "Donald Trump is knocking on the door", adding “He’s going to get there.” There was a meltdown in the unabashedly pro-Harris MSNBC studio. Anchors and panellists at NBC News, ABC News and CBS News, the other major networks generally seen as favouring Democrats, had a worried and dull look on their faces when announcing the results. The focus immediately turned to discussing how horrible a Trump presidency would be. Several of them shifted their anger to 'misinformation', blaming Trump backer Elon Musk's social media platform X and conspiracy theories spread by Trump surrogates as reasons for the former president's unassailable victory. All this amounts to telling the majority of American voters that they are dumb. But it can be argued that it was the opinion pollsters who tried to misguide and make a fool of the voters by peddling the lie that it was a 'neck-and-neck' race. Ahead of the election, the FiveThirtyEight website, which tracks the mood of the nation, put Harris ahead of Trump after compiling the last batch of opinion polls. But the difference was minor: she was ahead at 48 per cent while Trump was at 46.8 per cent. Among these pollsters, NPR-PBS News, Harris X-Forbes [no relation to Kamala Harris or X] and Ipsos-Reuters gave the highest favourability points to Harris, between 51 and 50 per cent. Only AtlasIntel and ActiVote gave similar percentages to Trump. On the question of whether voters wanted Republicans or Democrats in Congress, the average of all polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats the edge at 46.3 per cent as against 45.6 per cent for the Republicans. That was proven wrong in the final count. Interestingly, even Democrat-aligned pollsters found that more people have an unfavourable opinion of Kamala Harris - 48 per cent as opposed to a favourable opinion of 46 per cent. In their calculations, Trump was seen as unfavourable by nearly 60 per cent of respondents as opposed to 44 per cent that found him favourable. Come election night, most if not all of these observations fell flat in the face of reality. The punters and financial markets, overall, had more accuracy in predicting the election win for Trump than pollsters, who apparently use 'scientific' methods and mathematical models to reach their conclusions. Also read: US media suggests Trump’s lead in betting markets could be ‘manufactured’ What could have gone wrong? Americans who voted for Trump and his Republican party are not fools or 'garbage' as President Joe Biden once characterised them. They have voted out an unpopular government. They voted for issues that mattered to them the most: jobs, cost of living and illegal immigration, among other things. It is as simple as that. Also read: US election: Opinion poll shows Harris holds narrow lead over Trump, but razor-thin edge starting to fray The pollsters failed to assess the public mood on the ground, particularly that of the silent majority. In their surveying, they may have been talking to the converted, which gave the false impression that Democrats are either leading or giving tough competition to Republicans. This leaves open several questions on their methodology. How are they collecting data? Who are they approaching with survey questions? Are their survey respondents providing truthful information? Are they always talking to the same people, populations or community groups to create their data sets? It is not the first time that opinion pollsters, who have had a significant impact on the elections since they came into prominence in 1976, have gone wrong. But the suspicion now is: which of these pollsters are politically aligned to one party or the other? Could such tacit alliances be leading to lopsided polling that is skewed in favour of the party of their choice? The lack of accountability, and short public memory, is quite disturbing when it comes to opinion polling and those who conduct them. With such a wide error margin between their projections and the actual outcome, shouldn't such opinion polling also come under mis/disinformation, the pet term used by left-liberal media to bash Trump? This is a grey area. Not many strict laws have been implemented on conflict of interest in companies or news organisations doing opinion polling. But it is high time that they are called out. Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.

US election: Opinion pollsters were the biggest losers. It's time to call them out

<p>Apart from literally dodging the bullet, there were a number of things Republican Donald Trump did right in his successful bid to return as United States president. Here is a breakdown of the factors that contributed to doing what was deemed impossible: winning the White House for a non-consecutive second term.</p>

<h2><strong>1. Early bird gets the votes: Starting campaign before election season</strong></h2>

<p>Trump's campaign was not months, but years old. He announced his re-election campaign way back in 2022, as soon as the dust settled on the Covid pandemic. He established his campaign team, without allowing any of them to dominate the headlines, unlike people like Kellyanne Conway in his first campaign of 2016, who became the story. In 2024, his comms team was almost invisible, till he called them on stage to thank them during his victory speech on the night of November 5. Susie Wiles, who will now become his chief of staff, is one among them.</p>

<p><strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-20-cabinet-who-is-susie-wiles-the-ice-maiden-and-first-woman-white-house-chief-of-staff-774501">Also read: Trump 2.0 cabinet: Who is Susie Wiles, the 'ice maiden' and first woman White House chief of staff?</a></strong></p>

<h2><strong>2. Playing victim card on legal troubles</strong></h2>

<p>There was an appearance that the Democratic regime was trying to send Trump to jail over a number of cases: election subversion related to the Capitol riots of 6 January 2021, tax-related lawsuits and the Stormy Daniels affair being prominent among them. But each court appearance made him a star in the eyes of his supporters, who only grew in numbers as the cases dragged on. Trump called it a 'witch hunt', as it was pretty clear that none of these would lead to any logical conclusion, for fear of upsetting presidential immunity. Had Trump been jailed (if he lost the election), that would have set the precedent of future governments prosecuting past presidents. Trump played the victim card to the hilt, which appears to have appealed to more voters than Democrats expected.</p>

<p><strong>Watch: US Elections 2024: Tracking 'Moments' Leading To Trump 2.0</strong></p>

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<h2><strong>3. Not involving his family: It was always 'I, me, myself'</strong></h2>

<p>Trump's family – particularly his wife Melania, daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner – were hounded with disparaging stories in the liberal media throughout his presidency of 2016-2020. This time around, he appears to have taken a conscious decision not to foreground his family. Most of the time, Ivanka and Kushner kept a low profile, even appearing to distance themselves from the campaign. Melania came to the limelight with her book, but Trump only occasionally mentioned her on the campaign trail, and she herself appeared only sporadically with him.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-election-2024-results-live-updates-latest-news-on-2024-presidential-election-donald-trump-vs-kamala-harris-773440">Also read: AS IT HAPPENED | US Election Results 2024: Donald Trump wins presidency with clear mandate</a></strong></p>

<h2><strong>4. Dodging the bullet in a key swing state</strong></h2>

<p>The biggest moment for Trump's entire campaign was the failed assassination bid on&nbsp;July 13, when he was addressing a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In hindsight, the fact that it happened in Pennsylvania was to his great advantage, with the crucial swing state eventually giving him the electoral college votes that put paid to the election. Trump's fist-pumping and exhortation to the crowd 'fight, fight, fight' later became a rallying cry and campaign slogan/placard sign for his base.<br />
<br />
<strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/i-dont-get-it-moment-polling-nostradamus-realises-his-prediction-of-kamala-harris-win-is-wrong-774169">Also read: 'I don’t get it': Moment ‘polling Nostradamus’ realises his prediction of Kamala Harris' win is wrong</a></strong></p>

<h2><strong>5. Not talking to liberal press and not&nbsp;depending on celebrity endorsements</strong></h2>

<p>This time, Trump carefully chose who he gave interviews to, almost always avoiding the liberal media. He instead gave a long interview to Joe Rogan, the popular podcaster, and Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host. It helped that former Fox News host Megyn Kelly was by his side and spoke for him at his rallies, giving a different perspective to the stereotype that Trump was disliked by women.</p>

<h2><strong>6. Not taking part in primary debates</strong></h2>

<p>Trump mostly ignored his own party's candidate nomination process, not taking part in the Republican primary debates, instead focusing on holding rallies across the country to activate his base. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, his first major challenger, eventually exited. Those who came up as his potential challengers during the primaries either joined him – like Vivek Ramaswamy – or grudgingly accepted his dominance as the presumptive nominee – like Nikki Haley, who was the holdout until the last minute. Outside the party, the only non-viable yet, potentially vote-cutting, independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr eventually endorsed Trump.</p>

<h2><strong>7. Changing the Republican party to suit him: The Trump takeover</strong></h2>

<p>Over the past years, Trump moulded the Republican party on his own self. Its concerns became the same as his: fight against illegal immigration, upholding conservative values when it came to issues like abortion and transgender rights, advocating the least government intervention including no tax hikes for the upper middle class and the wealthy. He endorsed Republican candidates for Senate, House and governor races, and even some local polls, with most of them going on to win. The icing on the cake was his appointment of a family member as the Republican Party's National Committee. Lara Trump, the former TV producer married to Trump's son Eric, became the RNC co-chair in March, a crowning moment for the Trump takeover of his party.</p>

<h2><strong>8. Appealing to the grassroots, amplifying their fears</strong></h2>

<p>Trump appealed to the overwhelming fears of the white majority about illegal immigration, disruption of the family unit through increasing rights for same-sex unions and transgenders, and perceived threat to deeply held Christian values in much of middle and southern America. As the final electoral results map shows, this helped him cut into the so-called blue states, essentially breaking the votes from north to south in the middle of America, leaving the Democratic contender Kamala Harris with only the more liberal states in the east and west coasts. While Democrats felt abortion was a major issue that would swing women against Trump, it appears that many women disagreed.</p>

<h2><strong>9. Knowing the pulse of working class on immigration, economy</strong></h2>

<p>By amplifying the concerns about slow job growth, illegal migration&nbsp;and urban blight, Trump was able to add more supporters from non-white communities too. Hispanics in the country were equally fearful of the migration caravans coming in from Latin America as much as the white majority. Because one, it disrupted their lives and exposed them to racist attacks. And two, illegal migrants were competition for them. Many Latinos who voted for Trump may have carefully considered these issues before making that decision. With the African American community too, there appears to have been a shift, albeit minor. Those Blacks who voted for Trump were basically doing a protest vote against the Democrats, who they felt appeared to lecture them. Every election season, leaders like Barack Obama and Michelle Obama appeal to the Black community, even as Democratic governments did not make their lives any better. At least that was the perception among the pro-Trump Blacks, who voted in hopes that any improvement in the economy under Trump would help them get jobs.</p>

<h2><strong>10. Not doing too many debates</strong></h2>

<p>Trump never appeared too keen to do presidential debates. The only time he debated Joe Biden (he was the 'original' Democratic presidential candidate, remember?), he came out on top, not by his own performance but because of how incoherent the incumbent president sounded. To his credit, Trump was much more calm and collected when he debated Kamala Harris, a far cry from his aggressive ways during the debates with Hillary Clinton in 2016.</p>

<h2><strong>11. Concentrating on swing states, and getting shot in one of them</strong></h2>

<p>Trump concentrated much of his energies on the seven swing states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Among these, Georgia and North Carolina with their anti-Black racist history and population dynamics were tough to crack into. Georgia was also the scene of battle of the 2020 election rigging claims by Trump, so it sounded improbable that he would win there. Trump concentrated on these states during his campaign, was shot at in one of them as mentioned earlier, and eventually won or flipped all of them.</p>

<h2><strong>12. Appealing to young voters: TikTok generation loved him</strong></h2>

<p>It might sound improbable, but Trump's non-committal stance on banning TikTok, the Chinese-owned video-sharing platform massively loved by American youth, may have contributed to his appeal among Gen Z. Many TikTokers and TikTok users hated the Biden administration for the ban move. At a desperate moment, Biden himself joined TikTok even amid these moves, but it was far too little, too late. Trump supporters amplified his views and stances on various issues through TikTok as well as other social media apps.</p>

<h2><strong>13. Embracing social media, and Elon Musk</strong></h2>

<p>Trump started Truth Social when his social media accounts, particularly Twitter under the old management, banned his accounts. Over the years, Twitter was taken over by Elon Musk, a 'free-speech absolutist' who did not squirm at any of the white supremacist conspiracies being peddled on the now-rechristened X. Contrary to market pundits' expectations, Truth Social took off massively as the platform to share pro-Trump and Conservative views. When Trump rejected a platform, he created his own.</p>

<p><strong><a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/musks-interview-with-trump-on-x-hit-by-massive-cyberattack-749606">Also read: Donald Trump's interview with Elon Musk on X hit by 'massive' cyberattack</a></strong></p>

<p>Democrats underestimated the fact that half of the electorate was logged on to a non-legacy platform and getting their information from it. Towards the final lap of his campaign, Musk became an open supporter of Trump and addressed his rallies. For Musk, it was a desperate moment, as he feared Harris, if elected, would have folded up X. Add to this the legacy media's unwillingness to endorse Harris, Los Angeles Times and Washington Post being the most prominent examples.</p>

<h2><strong>14. Having a lot of money</strong></h2>

<p>Money speaks in American politics, and having a lot of it is helpful. Trump practically ran most of his campaign out of his own pocket, with the erstwhile mass donors like super PACs not emerging as key players unlike in past elections. Trump's wealth, fuelled mainly by the growth of Truth Social was listed in stock exchanges in March this year and helped bankroll a major part of his campaign, along with some super donors. Clearly, having the richest man in the world Elon Musk by his side may have helped things too.</p>

<h2><strong>15. A little bit of help from Democrats</strong></h2>

<p>Much more than anything Trump did, it was perhaps the disarray and disunity among Democrats and the often incoherent speeches of both its candidates – Biden and Harris – that probably led many undecided voters to cast their ballots in favour of Trump. 'Chaos' was a favourite word of Trump-bashing media during his presidency, but Democrats became the embodiment of that description this election season.</p>

<p>The first issue was Biden's insistence on seeking another term despite pressure from his own party, a stark contrast with his public appearances and statements that exposed the weak state of his mind and body.</p>

<p>When Kamala Harris was thrust into the campaign, the Democratic primaries had already chosen Biden as their candidate in the primaries. That she did not have to go through the pains of the primaries contest may have alienated even many Democrats, because, let's face it, it ain't fair.</p>

<p>In her short and sprightly campaign, Kamala appeared out of touch with the realities of middle-class America, even as she kept on saying she comes from such a family. Her record as a prosecutor who sent many Blacks to jail did not augur well for her campaign either.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.</em></strong></p>


Apart from literally dodging the bullet, there were a number of things Republican Donald Trump did right in his successful bid to return as United States president.

Apart from literally dodging the bullet, there were a number of things Republican Donald Trump did right in his successful bid to return as United States president. Here is a breakdown of the factors that contributed to doing what was deemed impossible: winning the White House for a non-consecutive second term. 1. Early bird gets the votes: Starting campaign before election season Trump's campaign was not months, but years old. He announced his re-election campaign way back in 2022, as soon as the dust settled on the Covid pandemic. He established his campaign team, without allowing any of them to dominate the headlines, unlike people like Kellyanne Conway in his first campaign of 2016, who became the story. In 2024, his comms team was almost invisible, till he called them on stage to thank them during his victory speech on the night of November 5. Susie Wiles, who will now become his chief of staff, is one among them. Also read: Trump 2.0 cabinet: Who is Susie Wiles, the 'ice maiden' and first woman White House chief of staff? 2. Playing victim card on legal troubles There was an appearance that the Democratic regime was trying to send Trump to jail over a number of cases: election subversion related to the Capitol riots of 6 January 2021, tax-related lawsuits and the Stormy Daniels affair being prominent among them. But each court appearance made him a star in the eyes of his supporters, who only grew in numbers as the cases dragged on. Trump called it a 'witch hunt', as it was pretty clear that none of these would lead to any logical conclusion, for fear of upsetting presidential immunity. Had Trump been jailed (if he lost the election), that would have set the precedent of future governments prosecuting past presidents. Trump played the victim card to the hilt, which appears to have appealed to more voters than Democrats expected. Watch: US Elections 2024: Tracking 'Moments' Leading To Trump 2.0 × 3. Not involving his family: It was always 'I, me, myself' Trump's family – particularly his wife Melania, daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner – were hounded with disparaging stories in the liberal media throughout his presidency of 2016-2020. This time around, he appears to have taken a conscious decision not to foreground his family. Most of the time, Ivanka and Kushner kept a low profile, even appearing to distance themselves from the campaign. Melania came to the limelight with her book, but Trump only occasionally mentioned her on the campaign trail, and she herself appeared only sporadically with him. Also read: AS IT HAPPENED | US Election Results 2024: Donald Trump wins presidency with clear mandate 4. Dodging the bullet in a key swing state The biggest moment for Trump's entire campaign was the failed assassination bid on July 13, when he was addressing a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In hindsight, the fact that it happened in Pennsylvania was to his great advantage, with the crucial swing state eventually giving him the electoral college votes that put paid to the election. Trump's fist-pumping and exhortation to the crowd 'fight, fight, fight' later became a rallying cry and campaign slogan/placard sign for his base. Also read: 'I don’t get it': Moment ‘polling Nostradamus’ realises his prediction of Kamala Harris' win is wrong 5. Not talking to liberal press and not depending on celebrity endorsements This time, Trump carefully chose who he gave interviews to, almost always avoiding the liberal media. He instead gave a long interview to Joe Rogan, the popular podcaster, and Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host. It helped that former Fox News host Megyn Kelly was by his side and spoke for him at his rallies, giving a different perspective to the stereotype that Trump was disliked by women. 6. Not taking part in primary debates Trump mostly ignored his own party's candidate nomination process, not taking part in the Republican primary debates, instead focusing on holding rallies across the country to activate his base. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, his first major challenger, eventually exited. Those who came up as his potential challengers during the primaries either joined him – like Vivek Ramaswamy – or grudgingly accepted his dominance as the presumptive nominee – like Nikki Haley, who was the holdout until the last minute. Outside the party, the only non-viable yet, potentially vote-cutting, independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr eventually endorsed Trump. 7. Changing the Republican party to suit him: The Trump takeover Over the past years, Trump moulded the Republican party on his own self. Its concerns became the same as his: fight against illegal immigration, upholding conservative values when it came to issues like abortion and transgender rights, advocating the least government intervention including no tax hikes for the upper middle class and the wealthy. He endorsed Republican candidates for Senate, House and governor races, and even some local polls, with most of them going on to win. The icing on the cake was his appointment of a family member as the Republican Party's National Committee. Lara Trump, the former TV producer married to Trump's son Eric, became the RNC co-chair in March, a crowning moment for the Trump takeover of his party. 8. Appealing to the grassroots, amplifying their fears Trump appealed to the overwhelming fears of the white majority about illegal immigration, disruption of the family unit through increasing rights for same-sex unions and transgenders, and perceived threat to deeply held Christian values in much of middle and southern America. As the final electoral results map shows, this helped him cut into the so-called blue states, essentially breaking the votes from north to south in the middle of America, leaving the Democratic contender Kamala Harris with only the more liberal states in the east and west coasts. While Democrats felt abortion was a major issue that would swing women against Trump, it appears that many women disagreed. 9. Knowing the pulse of working class on immigration, economy By amplifying the concerns about slow job growth, illegal migration and urban blight, Trump was able to add more supporters from non-white communities too. Hispanics in the country were equally fearful of the migration caravans coming in from Latin America as much as the white majority. Because one, it disrupted their lives and exposed them to racist attacks. And two, illegal migrants were competition for them. Many Latinos who voted for Trump may have carefully considered these issues before making that decision. With the African American community too, there appears to have been a shift, albeit minor. Those Blacks who voted for Trump were basically doing a protest vote against the Democrats, who they felt appeared to lecture them. Every election season, leaders like Barack Obama and Michelle Obama appeal to the Black community, even as Democratic governments did not make their lives any better. At least that was the perception among the pro-Trump Blacks, who voted in hopes that any improvement in the economy under Trump would help them get jobs. 10. Not doing too many debates Trump never appeared too keen to do presidential debates. The only time he debated Joe Biden (he was the 'original' Democratic presidential candidate, remember?), he came out on top, not by his own performance but because of how incoherent the incumbent president sounded. To his credit, Trump was much more calm and collected when he debated Kamala Harris, a far cry from his aggressive ways during the debates with Hillary Clinton in 2016. 11. Concentrating on swing states, and getting shot in one of them Trump concentrated much of his energies on the seven swing states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Among these, Georgia and North Carolina with their anti-Black racist history and population dynamics were tough to crack into. Georgia was also the scene of battle of the 2020 election rigging claims by Trump, so it sounded improbable that he would win there. Trump concentrated on these states during his campaign, was shot at in one of them as mentioned earlier, and eventually won or flipped all of them. 12. Appealing to young voters: TikTok generation loved him It might sound improbable, but Trump's non-committal stance on banning TikTok, the Chinese-owned video-sharing platform massively loved by American youth, may have contributed to his appeal among Gen Z. Many TikTokers and TikTok users hated the Biden administration for the ban move. At a desperate moment, Biden himself joined TikTok even amid these moves, but it was far too little, too late. Trump supporters amplified his views and stances on various issues through TikTok as well as other social media apps. 13. Embracing social media, and Elon Musk Trump started Truth Social when his social media accounts, particularly Twitter under the old management, banned his accounts. Over the years, Twitter was taken over by Elon Musk, a 'free-speech absolutist' who did not squirm at any of the white supremacist conspiracies being peddled on the now-rechristened X. Contrary to market pundits' expectations, Truth Social took off massively as the platform to share pro-Trump and Conservative views. When Trump rejected a platform, he created his own. Also read: Donald Trump's interview with Elon Musk on X hit by 'massive' cyberattack Democrats underestimated the fact that half of the electorate was logged on to a non-legacy platform and getting their information from it. Towards the final lap of his campaign, Musk became an open supporter of Trump and addressed his rallies. For Musk, it was a desperate moment, as he feared Harris, if elected, would have folded up X. Add to this the legacy media's unwillingness to endorse Harris, Los Angeles Times and Washington Post being the most prominent examples. 14. Having a lot of money Money speaks in American politics, and having a lot of it is helpful. Trump practically ran most of his campaign out of his own pocket, with the erstwhile mass donors like super PACs not emerging as key players unlike in past elections. Trump's wealth, fuelled mainly by the growth of Truth Social was listed in stock exchanges in March this year and helped bankroll a major part of his campaign, along with some super donors. Clearly, having the richest man in the world Elon Musk by his side may have helped things too. 15. A little bit of help from Democrats Much more than anything Trump did, it was perhaps the disarray and disunity among Democrats and the often incoherent speeches of both its candidates – Biden and Harris – that probably led many undecided voters to cast their ballots in favour of Trump. 'Chaos' was a favourite word of Trump-bashing media during his presidency, but Democrats became the embodiment of that description this election season. The first issue was Biden's insistence on seeking another term despite pressure from his own party, a stark contrast with his public appearances and statements that exposed the weak state of his mind and body. When Kamala Harris was thrust into the campaign, the Democratic primaries had already chosen Biden as their candidate in the primaries. That she did not have to go through the pains of the primaries contest may have alienated even many Democrats, because, let's face it, it ain't fair. In her short and sprightly campaign, Kamala appeared out of touch with the realities of middle-class America, even as she kept on saying she comes from such a family. Her record as a prosecutor who sent many Blacks to jail did not augur well for her campaign either. Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.

US elections 2024 analysis: How Trump won against Harris - 15 things his campaign got right

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US elections 2024 analysis: How Trump won against Harris - 15 things his campaign got right