Will asteroid Apophis hit Earth in 2029? New calculations reveal risk

Astronomers have now calculated the threat Apophis, once considered the most dangerous known asteroid, poses on Earth.

For several years, scientists believed Apophis was the most dangerous known asteroid, as it had a minuscule chance of hitting Earth in 2029 or, if that was a miss, in 2036.

According to the most precise observations of its orbit, it will come around 40,000 kilometres close to Earth in 2029. However, it will miss our planet until and unless a natural collision with another passing object changes its orbit.

Although the 1,110-foot asteroid won't wipe us away like the dinosaurs, it would create vast devastation. Due to this, scientists remained alert and curious about the possibilities.

On 13 April 2029 (Friday the 13th), Apophis will be at a distance of 37,399 kilometres (23,240 miles) from Earth.

However, a little push from another object between now and then might create a deviation in the future. For example, NASA's DART mission redirected asteroid Dimorphos and completely changed its shape.

Benjamin Hyatt, an undergraduate at Waterloo University, and Professor Paul Wiegert from Western University calculated the trajectory of 1.3 million known asteroids in the Solar System.

Hyatt said, "Given how closely Apophis will pass Earth, there is a possible risk that a deflection from its current trajectory may move Apophis closer to impacting us. Hypothetically, another asteroid colliding with Apophis could cause such a deflection, motivating us to study this scenario, however unlikely it may be."

The research team noted the movement of these space rocks over the next several years to check whether any of them would get near Apophis. Fortunately, their results show zero chances of Apophis colliding with another space object.

"We calculated the paths of all known asteroids using a detailed computer simulation of our Solar System and the possibility of such an unlikely event was evaluated," said Wiegert.

Scientists will not stop studying Apophis even though we're safe from it. OSIRIS-APEX, formerly known as OSIRIS_REx, is an ongoing mission studying the asteroid. It has previously visited the current most dangerous asteroid, Bennu. It also brought back a massive sample of the same rock.

"Asteroid Apophis has fascinated us as a species since its discovery in 2004: it was the first credible threat from an asteroid to our planet," said Wiegert. "Even now that we know it's on course to miss us by a safe margin, astronomers remain vigilant. It's the asteroid we just can't stop watching," he added.

(With inputs from agencies)