The Verdict: Is Trump ending the Iran war or starting a bigger economic battle?

Is Iran going to collapse? Is US President Donald Trump finally ending the war? Big questions with no clear answers. Iran is certainly more economically impacted and weaker than America. Yet, President Trump's new D-day sanctions may have become an old, rusted weapon. For more than 40 years, Washington has tried to force Tehran to change through economic pressure. It began after the 1979 hostage crisis, when President Jimmy Carter froze around $12 billion in Iranian assets. Then in the 1980s, US expanded trade restrictions. Then came sanctions targeting Iran's banks, oil industry, military and nuclear programme.

Bit by bit, US has managed to pressure Iran, but never completely destroy it. America's biggest success though came before the 2015 nuclear deal. American, European and international sanctions cut deeply into Iranian economy, reduced its oil exports and
isolated its banking system. That pressure helped bring Iran to the negotiating table. So, is Trump going to win against Iran this time? Well, so far he hasn't been able to.

When Trump pulled the United States out of the nuclear agreement in 2018, it expected Iran to give in. But the regime did not. It suffered enormously, but the regime survived. Now, Washington is trying again. Is Iran isolated? Not really. China can play spoiler in American strategy. You see, China is Iran's biggest oil customer. Even under heavy American pressure, Chinese buyers have continued purchasing Iranian crude oil. Vladimir putin is also Iran's ally. An increasing number of countries are questioning why America must decide for them. America's adversaries will not let Trump win.

So, will these new sanctions hurt Iran? Yes. But will economic pain automatically bring political surrender? History reflects no. Essentially, the battle over Iran has become much more than Iran. It is now a battle of who gets to set the rules of the new world order, and America certainly seems to be losing that power.