Opinion: The uncertain future of India-Pakistan relations

At a time when militancy is rising in Kashmir, the likelihood of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief Imran Khan becoming thePrime Minister has complicated the matter further.

The prospect of Imran Khan as the Prime Minister surprises not many as he has emerged as military-backed candidate in Pakistan. With him, the Pakistan army has achieved its four fundamental goals:

• To convince the world that Pakistan is a democratic country, while ruling the country through the proxy of elected civilian government

• To finish off the political legacy of Nawaz Sharif
  
• To send across the message that supremacy of military establishment is intact as it can decisively shape the outcome of election result
  
• To convey a message to India that it’s the Pakistan army that is the real stake holder on the matters related to national security and Kashmir

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India is now faced with a very unpleasant regional scenario - Imran Khan with a history of hobnobbing with fundamentalist cum terrorist forces in North Western region of Pakistan on the one hand, and unpredictable Donald trump on the other.

Under no circumstances Trump can be trusted as a well wisher or an ally of India given the history of his contradictory statements and position on the range of issues. Moreover, China remains an “all weather” friend of Pakistan. This regional scenario leaves little maneuvering space for India to deal diplomatically with Pakistan.

With the prospect of Imran Khan government in Pakistan lacking popular legitimacy, it will be depended on support from a coalition partner of Islamic fundamentalist leaning and will be counting on military for its survival. Thus, it cannot, unlike previous Nawaz Sharif government, chart out a clear, effective policy on terrorism.

Rather the chances are more that Pakistan will be further destabilised with increase in terror incidents, whichwill constraint the government to take a hardline position on Kashmir issue in order to cover its internal domestic failure.

India must deal very cautiously,which demands that while government of India must recognise the electoral outcomes of Pakistan and offer peaceful negotiation or hold talks with upcoming government on various issues, including Kashmir.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)