Opinion: In elections 2018, BJP set to gain grounds in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland

It’s election season for the three North Eastern states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya. While voting in Tripura is scheduled for February 18, Nagaland and Meghalaya will go to the polls on February 27. In Tripura, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has had an uninterrupted rule of 25 years. Its chief minister Manik Sarkar is dubbed as the poorest of the chief ministers in the region. The CPI (M) draws its strength from its cadres who fan out into the districts and rural outback of Tripura. This is also the only state in the region where people have ideological leanings towards the Left Parties. So much so that the Congress has all but withered here! Even the Trinamool Congress has an insignificant presence in Tripura.

Perhaps, the only reason why the Congress continues to have some presence in Tripura is that the ruling scion of the Tripura royal family, Pradyot Debbarma has patronised the Party and is its Working President, although for reasons that are unclear Debbarma has never taken the electoral plunge. This time too, he has let the election pass him by. Sources say he is waiting for a Rajya Sabha nomination from the Congress Party, now that its fortunes are on the upswing. Pradyot Debbarma is a tribal and commands respect amongst the tribes of Tripura.

It is the BJP’s advent in Tripura and its ability to mobilise voters at the booth level – its inherent strength - that appears to be giving the CPI(M) a headache this time. That the BJP has been able to contest from 51 out of 60 seats is quite a feat. The BJP has struck a deal with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) which is contesting from 9 seats, mainly reserved for scheduled tribes. The Congress is contesting from 59 seats, the CPI (M) from 57 seats leaving the other three seats for its Left Front partners the CPI, Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party, while the Trinamool is has set up 24 candidates.

Prime Minister Modi who was in Tripura on Thursday has promised to deliver it from a regime that has kept people at subsistence level –a socialist trademark. He has committed three T’s, Trade, Training and Tourism, for jump-starting development in Tripura. Twenty-five years is a long time for any government and change seems imminent what with the BJP putting its best foot forward in the state. This time it may no longer be a cakewalk for Manik Sarkar in his bastion of a quarter century.

In the tribal states of Nagaland and Meghalaya elections are not won by political parties but by personalities. He who has the money wins the votes. People jump in and out of parties without any qualms. A person who is denied a ticket from the BJP will coolly jump to the Congress camp the next day and be given a ticket to contest the election. But this also means that there are few takers for the Congress ticket this time especially in Meghalaya where the Party is fighting anti-incumbency. Money plays a big role in the elections in both states but more so in Nagaland where the stakes are high and voters openly demand a price for their votes. No amount of vigilance from the Election Commission can reduce election spending in both states.

In Meghalaya, the BJP is contesting from 47 constituencies while the Congress has set up candidates in all 60 seats. The National People’s Party (NPP) founded by the former Speaker of the Lok Sabha, PA Sangma has fielded 53 candidates. In all probability, the NPP will emerge as the single largest party but whether it will get a majority is doubtful.

The NPP is known to keep its options open for a tie-up with the BJP and perhaps a few Independents and some from the regional parties too. But whether that sort of hybrid government will bring stability to Meghalaya is a conundrum that will face the people of Meghalaya. This state has witnessed political instability since its inception. Governments and chief ministers come and go, sometimes thrice in a tenure of five years. One thing that the outgoing Mukul Sangma government has given to Meghalaya is political stability in the last five years and a period of relative peace.

In Nagaland, things are in a state of great flux and people are confused what with a new party being set up by former Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio – the Nagaland Democratic People’s Party (NDPP) a breakaway faction from the Naga People’s Front led by octogenarian Shurhozelie. The BJP is a big player now in Nagaland with central ministers landing there in hordes to capture the political space.

For the voters, political parties are all the same. Cynicism clouds the political landscape even as voters realise nothing will change in the next five years except the faces that will run the government. So they have learned to make capital out of the election season.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)