The battle for Rajasthan is not only an electoral contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is also a fight for supremacy among the heavyweight state leaders belonging to the two parties. Their charisma and credibility will be an important factor in determining the outcome of the forthcoming Assembly election. The fact that the two national parties are the main contestants makes the role of the local leaders critical. &nbsp;

The prestige of three prominent state leaders is at stake. Chief minister Vasundhara Raje from the BJP, and Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot from the Congress. All of them have seen several political ups and downs. They have a pan-Rajasthan image. They are well-versed with the intricacies of caste combinations. They are leaders in their own right, not requiring to necessarily depend overly on the patronage of their respective national leadership to remain relevant. And, either of the three will nearly certainly head the next government in the state.&nbsp;

That said, the greatest pressure is on Vasundhara Raje because as the incumbent chief minister she has to retain the state for her party. Going purely by various poll surveys, she is on a sticky wicket. Her government’s performance has fetched ordinary ratings; her personal rating is below that of her Congress rivals; and in terms of both seats and vote-share, the BJP trails behind the Congress. There is still time for the tide to turn, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to spin his charm on Rajasthan’s electorate. But it will be difficult, if not impossible to counter the negatives that have stuck on Vasundhara Raje’s image.

But why has she become so unpopular? After all, only five years before, she had stormed to power, dislodging the formidable Congress veteran Ashok Gehlot. One can only reply to perceptions to get an answer. The first concerns her inaccessibility, both to the masses and to the party’s local leaders. She is said to be aloof — even imperious — and brusque in her mannerism. The second has to do with her failure to address critical issues of unemployment and price rise. Besides, it does not help that the RSS, which contributes a large chunk of the workforce in election campaigning in the BJP’s favour, is less than enthused by her leadership. The recent by-poll losses in Alwar and Ajmer have been attributed to her failed leadership.

As if these were not enough, the chief minister has faced open rebellion from within; a prominent leader, Ghanshyam Tiwari, has floated his own outfit to take on her “corrupt regime”. Plus, there is disenchantment among nearly every influential caste group. Will these factors form a heady cocktail that will down the Raje regime, is to be seen.

But for now, it’s good news for the Congress’s Pilot and Gehlot. The former has for long been part of Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s inner circle, and now heads the party’s Rajasthan unit. Besides being young and dynamic, he has the right caste qualification (Gujjar). He is a strong favourite to take over the chief ministership in case the Congress snatches power from the BJP.&nbsp;

He must be itching to avenge his massive loss to a BJP candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha election (he lost by over 1,70,000 votes). Like Vasundhara Raje, he comes from a political family — his father Rajesh Pilot was a minister in the Congress government at the Centre. However, going by current perceptions, he faces a challenge to his chief ministerial ambitions not from the incumbent chief minister but from his colleague Gehlot.

Ashok Gehlot, like Pilot, is waiting to wipe the slate of his defeat in the 2013 Assembly polls, clean. His camp wants to see him back as chief minister. In recent months, he has come to be regarded as being close to Rahul Gandhi. He had been entrusted with the task of government formation in Karnataka. More recently, he was prominently present during the Rahul-led Congress’s protest meeting outside the Central Bureau of Investigation’s office. And, in many poll surveys, he figures higher than Pilot in ratings for the state’s next chief&nbsp;minister.

The Congress believes that the combined might of the two leaders will help the party breach the finishing line first. The BJP thinks the leadership tussle between the camps of the two tall Congress leaders will work in its favour. We will know soon.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL 
&nbsp;

The battle for Rajasthan is not only an electoral contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is also a fight for supremacy among the heavyweight state leaders belonging to the two parties.

The battle for Rajasthan is not only an electoral contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is also a fight for supremacy among the heavyweight state leaders belonging to the two parties. Their charisma and credibility will be an important factor in determining the outcome of the forthcoming Assembly election. The fact that the two national parties are the main contestants makes the role of the local leaders critical. The prestige of three prominent state leaders is at stake. Chief minister Vasundhara Raje from the BJP, and Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot from the Congress. All of them have seen several political ups and downs. They have a pan-Rajasthan image. They are well-versed with the intricacies of caste combinations. They are leaders in their own right, not requiring to necessarily depend overly on the patronage of their respective national leadership to remain relevant. And, either of the three will nearly certainly head the next government in the state. That said, the greatest pressure is on Vasundhara Raje because as the incumbent chief minister she has to retain the state for her party. Going purely by various poll surveys, she is on a sticky wicket. Her government’s performance has fetched ordinary ratings; her personal rating is below that of her Congress rivals; and in terms of both seats and vote-share, the BJP trails behind the Congress. There is still time for the tide to turn, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to spin his charm on Rajasthan’s electorate. But it will be difficult, if not impossible to counter the negatives that have stuck on Vasundhara Raje’s image. But why has she become so unpopular? After all, only five years before, she had stormed to power, dislodging the formidable Congress veteran Ashok Gehlot. One can only reply to perceptions to get an answer. The first concerns her inaccessibility, both to the masses and to the party’s local leaders. She is said to be aloof — even imperious — and brusque in her mannerism. The second has to do with her failure to address critical issues of unemployment and price rise. Besides, it does not help that the RSS, which contributes a large chunk of the workforce in election campaigning in the BJP’s favour, is less than enthused by her leadership. The recent by-poll losses in Alwar and Ajmer have been attributed to her failed leadership. As if these were not enough, the chief minister has faced open rebellion from within; a prominent leader, Ghanshyam Tiwari, has floated his own outfit to take on her “corrupt regime”. Plus, there is disenchantment among nearly every influential caste group. Will these factors form a heady cocktail that will down the Raje regime, is to be seen. But for now, it’s good news for the Congress’s Pilot and Gehlot. The former has for long been part of Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s inner circle, and now heads the party’s Rajasthan unit. Besides being young and dynamic, he has the right caste qualification (Gujjar). He is a strong favourite to take over the chief ministership in case the Congress snatches power from the BJP. He must be itching to avenge his massive loss to a BJP candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha election (he lost by over 1,70,000 votes). Like Vasundhara Raje, he comes from a political family — his father Rajesh Pilot was a minister in the Congress government at the Centre. However, going by current perceptions, he faces a challenge to his chief ministerial ambitions not from the incumbent chief minister but from his colleague Gehlot. Ashok Gehlot, like Pilot, is waiting to wipe the slate of his defeat in the 2013 Assembly polls, clean. His camp wants to see him back as chief minister. In recent months, he has come to be regarded as being close to Rahul Gandhi. He had been entrusted with the task of government formation in Karnataka. More recently, he was prominently present during the Rahul-led Congress’s protest meeting outside the Central Bureau of Investigation’s office. And, in many poll surveys, he figures higher than Pilot in ratings for the state’s next chief minister. The Congress believes that the combined might of the two leaders will help the party breach the finishing line first. The BJP thinks the leadership tussle between the camps of the two tall Congress leaders will work in its favour. We will know soon. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL

In Rajasthan, it’s the local leadership that matters

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are crucial heartland states that enabled BJP's stellar performance in 2014. According to the Cvoter opinion poll, Congress seems to be in the poll position in all 3 states. In Rajasthan, Congress leads by a strong margin whereas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the fight is close. In fact, the election in the latter two might well be decided quite late in the day, dependent upon factors such as campaign strategy, ticket allocation and infighting among others.

Highly critical will be the choice of chief ministerial candidates as leadership question is a point of concern for Congress. Particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the respective BJP Chief Ministers viz Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh continue to be very popular. In fact, the major anti-incumbency sentiment seems to be against the incumbent MLAs who have not managed their constituencies well. Perhaps denial of tickets to such non-performing MLAs might help the BJP to blunt the anti-incumbency sentiment, especially considering the less than 1 per cent vote share trail in opinion poll vis a vis Congress.&nbsp;

In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, there is a dead heat between Congress and BJP. This is not the case in Rajasthan, the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is less popular than the main challenger from Congress Sachin Pilot. In MP, Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress is less popular than Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Chattisgarh, the main challenger to chief minister Raman Singh is Ajit Jogi who does not even belong to the Congress. That leaves Rajasthan as the only state where Congress has a leadership rating advantage.&nbsp;

<img alt="Table 1" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f2e65833-5dfb-4106-aa25-045212c57d01" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table-1%20Final.jpg" />

Over and above that, Cvoter survey also dwelled upon the question of a bipolar contest to check the infighting sentiment. That is, when the candidates' field is narrowed down to two main challengers in the fray, there is always a churning among the party supporters who favour one party candidate over the other. In Madhya Pradesh, if the choice between Scindia and Chauhan was presented, Chauhan proved to more popular than Scindia. What is important to underline here is the fact that almost 50 per cent supporters of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not staying loyal to party line for the candidature of Jyotiraditya Scindia in bipolar setup against Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

Almost 25 per cent of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh supporters shift allegiance to BJP CM Candidate and the rest are assuming a neutral position. This clearly opens up the internal fault-lines of Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh.&nbsp; 
 
<img alt="Table 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a602dcd4-4f77-4a5d-b061-bde21cae24a2" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table2.jpg" />

In Chhattisgarh, a direct contest between Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi may precipitate 1/3rd of Congress supporters to shift support to BJP chief minister candidate and another 1/3rd may move to Jogi's camp, the rest are assuming a position of neutrality. This argues rather poorly for a party which is leading over BJP by less than a point at the moment. Jogi becomes a choice by default for many anti-BJP voters just because Congress is unable to give a name for the chief minister post. If the Congress leadership is well defined, it will not take much of a time for the anti-BJP voters getting polarized in a clear-cut manner. 
 
<img alt="Table 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4efd1661-e4e2-4945-9f78-52efab452a77" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table%203.jpg" />

The state of Rajasthan is in complete contrast to MP and Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, a bipolar contest of Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje is clearly producing results in favour of Congress candidate. Almost two-third supporters of other Congress candidates, like Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi, are continuing to support the candidature of Sachin Pilot in a bipolar rating. Unlike other states, the young voters and first-time voters of Rajasthan are rallying for a clean image of the rather young Sachin Pilot. His face is clearly instrumental in swinging the undecided young voters, who otherwise get neutralized by the corruption-tagged image of old Congress leadership in the state.&nbsp; 
 
<img alt="Table 4" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fa9d3d44-451e-4755-98ef-1c484d525d41" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table4.jpg" />

Clearly, Congress is facing infighting and factionalism in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while it comes across as a much-united house in Rajasthan. This point becomes salient in the light of less than 1 per cent projected vote share lead according to the Cvoter opinion poll in the states of MP and Chhattisgarh.

The overwhelming popularity of PM Narendra Modi has been the key electoral weapon for BJP in the past 3-4 years. Election after election in last four years has shown that there is a distinct surge of 3-4 per cent vote share that gets imparted by PM Narendra Modi in closing stages of the campaign. In MP and Chhattisgarh, such a vote surge can easily topple the Congress lead. In the case of Rajasthan, the projected lead of Congress seems to be clear of any potential late surge by BJP. The masses flocking to PM's rallies in Rajasthan may listen to him and vote for him in Lok Sabha elections but for Vidhan Sabha polls the mood seems to be made up.&nbsp;

Finally, Congress is making a mistake by not announcing official candidates in the three states. For examples, in MP an official announcement in favour of Scindia may polarize young voters in favour of Congress, the same may happen in Rajasthan and an official affirmation of Sachin Pilot could produce an electoral dividend thus confirming the Congress victory that is increasingly likely. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress may announce an official candidate such as TS Singh Dev or Bhupesh Baghel to blunt the edge of Ajit Jogi. In fact, currently, Jogi is being favoured only because of non-announcement of a Congress candidate.&nbsp;

Therefore, Congress has all to gain by the announcement of official Chief Ministerial candidates. It may gain that crucial edge over the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh and further solidify its robust lead in Rajasthan. In case this does not happen then a late BJP surge induced by PM Modi's campaign may end up being crucial, however, it is tough to estimate its impact quantitatively as of now.&nbsp;

There is a huge rating deficit that Congress faces when the national Leadership ratings are compared. The gap in approval ratings of NaMo and RaGa is a big electoral liability at the moment for the Congress at large. The only way it can counter that liability is by projecting the much popular young faces at the state level against the state BJP leadership. If done properly, then faces of Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Bhupesh Baghel can do the needful to counter the mega rallies of Narendra Modi in concluding weeks of the campaign. If they continue the blunder in positioning this round as contest of national leaderships, then we all know what kind of punch Mr Modi is capable of delivering.&nbsp;

I don't think Congress wants to take the battle in that direction. 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/blogs/will-congress-blunder-again-by-making-assembly-elections-a-raga-vs-namo-battle-2151613.html">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland.

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are crucial heartland states that enabled BJP's stellar performance in 2014. According to the Cvoter opinion poll, Congress seems to be in the poll position in all 3 states. In Rajasthan, Congress leads by a strong margin whereas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the fight is close. In fact, the election in the latter two might well be decided quite late in the day, dependent upon factors such as campaign strategy, ticket allocation and infighting among others. Highly critical will be the choice of chief ministerial candidates as leadership question is a point of concern for Congress. Particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the respective BJP Chief Ministers viz Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh continue to be very popular. In fact, the major anti-incumbency sentiment seems to be against the incumbent MLAs who have not managed their constituencies well. Perhaps denial of tickets to such non-performing MLAs might help the BJP to blunt the anti-incumbency sentiment, especially considering the less than 1 per cent vote share trail in opinion poll vis a vis Congress. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, there is a dead heat between Congress and BJP. This is not the case in Rajasthan, the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is less popular than the main challenger from Congress Sachin Pilot. In MP, Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress is less popular than Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Chattisgarh, the main challenger to chief minister Raman Singh is Ajit Jogi who does not even belong to the Congress. That leaves Rajasthan as the only state where Congress has a leadership rating advantage. Over and above that, Cvoter survey also dwelled upon the question of a bipolar contest to check the infighting sentiment. That is, when the candidates' field is narrowed down to two main challengers in the fray, there is always a churning among the party supporters who favour one party candidate over the other. In Madhya Pradesh, if the choice between Scindia and Chauhan was presented, Chauhan proved to more popular than Scindia. What is important to underline here is the fact that almost 50 per cent supporters of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not staying loyal to party line for the candidature of Jyotiraditya Scindia in bipolar setup against Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Almost 25 per cent of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh supporters shift allegiance to BJP CM Candidate and the rest are assuming a neutral position. This clearly opens up the internal fault-lines of Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh. In Chhattisgarh, a direct contest between Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi may precipitate 1/3rd of Congress supporters to shift support to BJP chief minister candidate and another 1/3rd may move to Jogi's camp, the rest are assuming a position of neutrality. This argues rather poorly for a party which is leading over BJP by less than a point at the moment. Jogi becomes a choice by default for many anti-BJP voters just because Congress is unable to give a name for the chief minister post. If the Congress leadership is well defined, it will not take much of a time for the anti-BJP voters getting polarized in a clear-cut manner. The state of Rajasthan is in complete contrast to MP and Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, a bipolar contest of Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje is clearly producing results in favour of Congress candidate. Almost two-third supporters of other Congress candidates, like Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi, are continuing to support the candidature of Sachin Pilot in a bipolar rating. Unlike other states, the young voters and first-time voters of Rajasthan are rallying for a clean image of the rather young Sachin Pilot. His face is clearly instrumental in swinging the undecided young voters, who otherwise get neutralized by the corruption-tagged image of old Congress leadership in the state. Clearly, Congress is facing infighting and factionalism in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while it comes across as a much-united house in Rajasthan. This point becomes salient in the light of less than 1 per cent projected vote share lead according to the Cvoter opinion poll in the states of MP and Chhattisgarh. The overwhelming popularity of PM Narendra Modi has been the key electoral weapon for BJP in the past 3-4 years. Election after election in last four years has shown that there is a distinct surge of 3-4 per cent vote share that gets imparted by PM Narendra Modi in closing stages of the campaign. In MP and Chhattisgarh, such a vote surge can easily topple the Congress lead. In the case of Rajasthan, the projected lead of Congress seems to be clear of any potential late surge by BJP. The masses flocking to PM's rallies in Rajasthan may listen to him and vote for him in Lok Sabha elections but for Vidhan Sabha polls the mood seems to be made up. Finally, Congress is making a mistake by not announcing official candidates in the three states. For examples, in MP an official announcement in favour of Scindia may polarize young voters in favour of Congress, the same may happen in Rajasthan and an official affirmation of Sachin Pilot could produce an electoral dividend thus confirming the Congress victory that is increasingly likely. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress may announce an official candidate such as TS Singh Dev or Bhupesh Baghel to blunt the edge of Ajit Jogi. In fact, currently, Jogi is being favoured only because of non-announcement of a Congress candidate. Therefore, Congress has all to gain by the announcement of official Chief Ministerial candidates. It may gain that crucial edge over the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh and further solidify its robust lead in Rajasthan. In case this does not happen then a late BJP surge induced by PM Modi's campaign may end up being crucial, however, it is tough to estimate its impact quantitatively as of now. There is a huge rating deficit that Congress faces when the national Leadership ratings are compared. The gap in approval ratings of NaMo and RaGa is a big electoral liability at the moment for the Congress at large. The only way it can counter that liability is by projecting the much popular young faces at the state level against the state BJP leadership. If done properly, then faces of Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Bhupesh Baghel can do the needful to counter the mega rallies of Narendra Modi in concluding weeks of the campaign. If they continue the blunder in positioning this round as contest of national leaderships, then we all know what kind of punch Mr Modi is capable of delivering. I don't think Congress wants to take the battle in that direction. (This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Will Congress blunder again by making Assembly elections a Rahul vs Modi battle?

With dates for five Assembly elections announced, all eyes are focused on the two large and politically crucial states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, it’s the smallest one in the list, Mizoram, which holds the key to whether the Congress will be able to retain even its depleted presence in the Northeast, or whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will sustain its recent successes in the region. The politics of the northeastern States is critical from the perspective of the country’s security, sovereignty and integrity — more than any other region with the exception of Jammu &amp; Kashmir — and Mizoram is an important element in that overall scheme of things.&nbsp;

Mizoram is the last standing citadel of the Congress in the North-East, but that bastion is under attack. Party affairs are in a mess in the State; only recently, R Lalzirliana, one of its senior leaders and home minister in the Government of Lal Thanhawla, quit following differences with the chief minister. So did former health minister Lalrinliana Sailo. The party’s local leadership has tried to play down the development, claiming that the two Ministers had to leave because of serious allegations of corruption against them. But that does not explain the widely-held apprehension in party ranks that more desertions can happen in the run-up to the Assembly election, to be held on November 28. &nbsp;

It’s not just the problems that many Congress leaders have with the local leadership led by Lal Thanhawla. There is the fear of anti-incumbency too. The Congress regime has been in power since 2008, and the fatigue factor has begun to show. Many influential leaders have been rubbed the wrong way in the last decade that corresponded with the emergence of Lal Thanhawla’s iron hand. In the earlier years, dissident leaders had no option but to swallow the insult; they had nowhere to go. The main opposition party, the Mizo National Front (MNF), had been sidelined and over the years become quite ineffective. It had won just five seats in the 40-member House in the 2013 election, while the Congress had bagged 34 seats. Things have changed since then.&nbsp;

First, the MNF led by Zoramthanga has been strengthened by its partnership with the BJP, via the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA); the MNF chief is a founder-member of the alliance. Second, the MNF is upbeat over the departure of key leaders from the Congress and would be quite happy to accommodate the rebels. Third, it is banking on the strong anti-incumbency factor. And fourth, it believes that the BJP’s recent successes in the North-East, both in an individual capacity and through alliances, will impact the mood of the electorate in Mizoram too. &nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
The BJP is content to let events play out in its favour. It will repeat the strategy it has deployed in the other northeastern States — that of cementing partnerships with local players and taking a subordinate position whenever the situation demands. In Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, the party tied up with regional outfits and outwitted the Congress in the electoral battle. In Assam and Tripura, although it swept the polls on its own, it still proceeded to form coalition regimes with regional parties. The BJP wants its NEDA experiment to keep delivering results, even if in the process it has to take a back seat in some cases. The BJP does not have a strong cadre in Mizoram, and will, like in the case of Meghalaya and Manipur, hope to ride piggyback on local allies to victory.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Incidentally, of the seven States in the Northeast, it’s the Meghalaya reminder that will trouble the Congress the most and elate the opposition equally as much. Prior to Assembly election in Meghalaya earlier this year, several leaders had quit the Congress (five among them were sitting Legislators). The party was defeated. Does a similar scenario await the Congress in Mizoram? Or is the opposition overly optimistic, given that the Congress is hardly a pushover in the state? We will know on December 11. &nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

With dates for five Assembly elections announced, all eyes are focused on the two large and politically crucial states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, it’s the smallest one in the list, Mizoram, which holds the key to whether the Congress will be able to retain even its depleted presence in the Northeast, or whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will sustain its recent successes in the region.

With dates for five Assembly elections announced, all eyes are focused on the two large and politically crucial states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, it’s the smallest one in the list, Mizoram, which holds the key to whether the Congress will be able to retain even its depleted presence in the Northeast, or whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will sustain its recent successes in the region. The politics of the northeastern States is critical from the perspective of the country’s security, sovereignty and integrity — more than any other region with the exception of Jammu & Kashmir — and Mizoram is an important element in that overall scheme of things. Mizoram is the last standing citadel of the Congress in the North-East, but that bastion is under attack. Party affairs are in a mess in the State; only recently, R Lalzirliana, one of its senior leaders and home minister in the Government of Lal Thanhawla, quit following differences with the chief minister. So did former health minister Lalrinliana Sailo. The party’s local leadership has tried to play down the development, claiming that the two Ministers had to leave because of serious allegations of corruption against them. But that does not explain the widely-held apprehension in party ranks that more desertions can happen in the run-up to the Assembly election, to be held on November 28. It’s not just the problems that many Congress leaders have with the local leadership led by Lal Thanhawla. There is the fear of anti-incumbency too. The Congress regime has been in power since 2008, and the fatigue factor has begun to show. Many influential leaders have been rubbed the wrong way in the last decade that corresponded with the emergence of Lal Thanhawla’s iron hand. In the earlier years, dissident leaders had no option but to swallow the insult; they had nowhere to go. The main opposition party, the Mizo National Front (MNF), had been sidelined and over the years become quite ineffective. It had won just five seats in the 40-member House in the 2013 election, while the Congress had bagged 34 seats. Things have changed since then. First, the MNF led by Zoramthanga has been strengthened by its partnership with the BJP, via the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA); the MNF chief is a founder-member of the alliance. Second, the MNF is upbeat over the departure of key leaders from the Congress and would be quite happy to accommodate the rebels. Third, it is banking on the strong anti-incumbency factor. And fourth, it believes that the BJP’s recent successes in the North-East, both in an individual capacity and through alliances, will impact the mood of the electorate in Mizoram too. The BJP is content to let events play out in its favour. It will repeat the strategy it has deployed in the other northeastern States — that of cementing partnerships with local players and taking a subordinate position whenever the situation demands. In Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, the party tied up with regional outfits and outwitted the Congress in the electoral battle. In Assam and Tripura, although it swept the polls on its own, it still proceeded to form coalition regimes with regional parties. The BJP wants its NEDA experiment to keep delivering results, even if in the process it has to take a back seat in some cases. The BJP does not have a strong cadre in Mizoram, and will, like in the case of Meghalaya and Manipur, hope to ride piggyback on local allies to victory. Incidentally, of the seven States in the Northeast, it’s the Meghalaya reminder that will trouble the Congress the most and elate the opposition equally as much. Prior to Assembly election in Meghalaya earlier this year, several leaders had quit the Congress (five among them were sitting Legislators). The party was defeated. Does a similar scenario await the Congress in Mizoram? Or is the opposition overly optimistic, given that the Congress is hardly a pushover in the state? We will know on December 11. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Mizoram polls more crucial for Congress than BJP

It&rsquo;s election season for the three North Eastern states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya. While voting in Tripura is scheduled for February 18, Nagaland and Meghalaya will go to the polls on February 27. In Tripura, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has had an uninterrupted rule of 25 years. Its chief minister Manik Sarkar is dubbed as the poorest of the chief ministers in the region. The CPI (M) draws its strength from its cadres who fan out into the districts and rural outback of Tripura. This is also the only state in the region where people have ideological leanings towards the Left Parties. So much so that the Congress has all but withered here! Even the Trinamool Congress has an insignificant presence in Tripura. &nbsp; &nbsp;

&nbsp;

Perhaps, the only reason why the Congress continues to have some presence in Tripura is that the ruling scion of the Tripura royal family, Pradyot Debbarma has patronised the Party and is its Working President, although for reasons that are unclear Debbarma has never taken the electoral plunge. This time too, he has let the election pass him by. Sources say he is waiting for a Rajya Sabha nomination from the Congress Party, now that its fortunes are on the upswing. Pradyot Debbarma is a tribal and commands respect amongst the tribes of Tripura.

&nbsp;

It is the BJP&rsquo;s advent in Tripura and its ability to mobilise voters at the booth level &ndash; its inherent strength - that appears to be giving the CPI(M) a headache this time. That the BJP has been able to contest from 51 out of 60 seats is quite a feat. The BJP has struck a deal with the Indigenous People&rsquo;s Front of Tripura (IPFT) which is contesting from 9 seats, mainly reserved for scheduled tribes. The Congress is contesting from 59 seats, the CPI (M) from 57 seats leaving the other three seats for its Left Front partners the CPI, Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party, while the Trinamool is has set up 24 candidates.

&nbsp;

Prime Minister Modi who was in Tripura on Thursday has promised to deliver it from a regime that has kept people at subsistence level &ndash;a socialist trademark. He has committed three T&rsquo;s, Trade, Training and Tourism, for jump-starting development in Tripura. Twenty-five years is a long time for any government and change seems imminent what with the BJP putting its best foot forward in the state. This time it may no longer be a cakewalk for Manik Sarkar in his bastion of a quarter century.

&nbsp;

In the tribal states of Nagaland and Meghalaya elections are not won by political parties but by personalities. He who has the money wins the votes. People jump in and out of parties without any qualms. A person who is denied a ticket from the BJP will coolly jump to the Congress camp the next day and be given a ticket to contest the election. But this also means that there are few takers for the Congress ticket this time especially in Meghalaya where the Party is fighting anti-incumbency. Money plays a big role in the elections in both states but more so in Nagaland where the stakes are high and voters openly demand a price for their votes. No amount of vigilance from the Election Commission can reduce election spending in both states.

&nbsp;

In Meghalaya, the BJP is contesting from 47 constituencies while the Congress has set up candidates in all 60 seats. The National People&rsquo;s Party (NPP) founded by the former Speaker of the Lok Sabha, PA Sangma has fielded 53 candidates. In all probability, the NPP will emerge as the single largest party but whether it will get a majority is doubtful.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The NPP is known to keep its options open for a tie-up with the BJP and perhaps a few Independents and some from the regional parties too. But whether that sort of hybrid government will bring stability to Meghalaya is a conundrum that will face the people of Meghalaya. This state has witnessed political instability since its inception. Governments and chief ministers come and go, sometimes thrice in a tenure of five years. One thing that the outgoing Mukul Sangma government has given to Meghalaya is political stability in the last five years and a period of relative peace.

&nbsp;

In Nagaland, things are in a state of great flux and people are confused what with a new party being set up by former Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio &ndash; the Nagaland Democratic People&rsquo;s Party (NDPP) a breakaway faction from the Naga People&rsquo;s Front led by octogenarian Shurhozelie. The BJP is a big player now in Nagaland with central ministers landing there in hordes to capture the political space.

&nbsp;

For the voters, political parties are all the same. Cynicism clouds the political landscape even as voters realise nothing will change in the next five years except the faces that will run the government. So they have learned to make capital out of the election season.

&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)&nbsp;&nbsp;

BJP is set to give a headache to Manik Sarkar in Tripura, emerge as a big player in Nagaland, and in Meghalaya, the Party may tie up with the largest regional party the NPP.

It’s election season for the three North Eastern states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya. While voting in Tripura is scheduled for February 18, Nagaland and Meghalaya will go to the polls on February 27. In Tripura, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has had an uninterrupted rule of 25 years. Its chief minister Manik Sarkar is dubbed as the poorest of the chief ministers in the region. The CPI (M) draws its strength from its cadres who fan out into the districts and rural outback of Tripura. This is also the only state in the region where people have ideological leanings towards the Left Parties. So much so that the Congress has all but withered here! Even the Trinamool Congress has an insignificant presence in Tripura. Perhaps, the only reason why the Congress continues to have some presence in Tripura is that the ruling scion of the Tripura royal family, Pradyot Debbarma has patronised the Party and is its Working President, although for reasons that are unclear Debbarma has never taken the electoral plunge. This time too, he has let the election pass him by. Sources say he is waiting for a Rajya Sabha nomination from the Congress Party, now that its fortunes are on the upswing. Pradyot Debbarma is a tribal and commands respect amongst the tribes of Tripura. It is the BJP’s advent in Tripura and its ability to mobilise voters at the booth level – its inherent strength - that appears to be giving the CPI(M) a headache this time. That the BJP has been able to contest from 51 out of 60 seats is quite a feat. The BJP has struck a deal with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) which is contesting from 9 seats, mainly reserved for scheduled tribes. The Congress is contesting from 59 seats, the CPI (M) from 57 seats leaving the other three seats for its Left Front partners the CPI, Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party, while the Trinamool is has set up 24 candidates. Prime Minister Modi who was in Tripura on Thursday has promised to deliver it from a regime that has kept people at subsistence level –a socialist trademark. He has committed three T’s, Trade, Training and Tourism, for jump-starting development in Tripura. Twenty-five years is a long time for any government and change seems imminent what with the BJP putting its best foot forward in the state. This time it may no longer be a cakewalk for Manik Sarkar in his bastion of a quarter century. In the tribal states of Nagaland and Meghalaya elections are not won by political parties but by personalities. He who has the money wins the votes. People jump in and out of parties without any qualms. A person who is denied a ticket from the BJP will coolly jump to the Congress camp the next day and be given a ticket to contest the election. But this also means that there are few takers for the Congress ticket this time especially in Meghalaya where the Party is fighting anti-incumbency. Money plays a big role in the elections in both states but more so in Nagaland where the stakes are high and voters openly demand a price for their votes. No amount of vigilance from the Election Commission can reduce election spending in both states. In Meghalaya, the BJP is contesting from 47 constituencies while the Congress has set up candidates in all 60 seats. The National People’s Party (NPP) founded by the former Speaker of the Lok Sabha, PA Sangma has fielded 53 candidates. In all probability, the NPP will emerge as the single largest party but whether it will get a majority is doubtful. The NPP is known to keep its options open for a tie-up with the BJP and perhaps a few Independents and some from the regional parties too. But whether that sort of hybrid government will bring stability to Meghalaya is a conundrum that will face the people of Meghalaya. This state has witnessed political instability since its inception. Governments and chief ministers come and go, sometimes thrice in a tenure of five years. One thing that the outgoing Mukul Sangma government has given to Meghalaya is political stability in the last five years and a period of relative peace. In Nagaland, things are in a state of great flux and people are confused what with a new party being set up by former Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio – the Nagaland Democratic People’s Party (NDPP) a breakaway faction from the Naga People’s Front led by octogenarian Shurhozelie. The BJP is a big player now in Nagaland with central ministers landing there in hordes to capture the political space. For the voters, political parties are all the same. Cynicism clouds the political landscape even as voters realise nothing will change in the next five years except the faces that will run the government. So they have learned to make capital out of the election season. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: In elections 2018, BJP set to gain grounds in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland

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