Exclusive | Rules of nuclear wargame are changing. India's role, China's intent is in spotlight
Modi Jinping
The leaders of Australia, United Kingdom and United States (AUKUS) stood together in San Diego earlier this week, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia unveiled a four-phase plan to acquire up to eight nuclear-powered submarines from the UK and US. The deal translates into transfer of nuclear technology from a nuclear weapons state to a non-weapons state, and has prompted nuclear proliferation fears worldwide.
"The fact that you have Highly Enriched Uranium reactors that are not easy to control when they are coming from a nuclear power to a non-nuclear power. So that is certainly an issue to be followed up," Professor Alexander Harang, Co-President of Oslo-headquartered International Peace and Understanding told WION, at the sidelines of India Centre Foundation's roundtable in New Delhi.
India and China's 'No First Use' proliferation safeguard
Amongst all of the world's nuclear powers — United States, Russia, China, India, Israel, United Kingdom, France, Pakistan, North Korea and NATO member nuclear weapons sharing states — India and China are the only two countries that maintain a 'No First Use' policy. That is, during an event of armed conflict, both New Delhi and Beijing have committed to not being the first nations to use nuclear weapons.
"It is possible to get a global agreement on No First Use of nuclear weapons," Harang said.
"Since India and China already have no first use policies in place. They need to be leaders now," Harang added on an optimistic note, while referring to 'many immediate threats' that the world is facing in relation to the ongoing expansion of nuclear threat.
Significance of Iran-Saudi deal for nuclear non-proliferation
With China at the centre of the geopolitical picture, Iran and Saudi Arabia on March 11, agreed to restore diplomatic ties after their seven years of bilateral estrangement in West Asia. Harang hailed the development as a 'great victory' for the non-proliferation movement.
"But we should definitely not think of this restoration of ties as a closed case. There is a wider proliferation issue in the Middle East if Iran gets into a nuclear programme," Harang cautioned, while referring to potential nuclear flashpoints in West Asia polarised on Shia-Sunni lines.
"Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt and also possibly the (United Arab) Emirates are ready to develop nuclear weapons. Either that, or enter a US nuclear umbrella in case of an Iranian nuclear bomb. That dynamic is still there," Alexander Harang added.
The world in crisis mode; the rules of N-game are changing
Referring to Russia's exit from Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, also known as the New START Treaty, Harang said that the world is in "crisis mode".
"We are in the midst of quite many immediate threats," Harang told WION, while also emphasising on the current uproar in South Korea and past efforts by Brazil for armed nuclear self-sufficiency.
Harang believes that a global agreement on 'No First Use' by all nuclear-powered states would result in 'heightening the threshold for actually using the nuclear weapons', and will become an immediate deterrent measure against most immediate threats of a possible nuclear-armed escalation.
"A 'no first use' doctrine is what can cool the security apparatus down during an event of conflict. This is what can increase the strategic response time," Harang said while referring to the time a country gets during a conflict when it has to decide if it will respond to an attack with nuclear force or not.
But could a global agreement on 'no first use' be possible without the country with a reckless proliferation record coming on-board?
"Well, you don't start with Pakistan really?," Harang chuckled, and repeated, "You don't start with Pakistan. Not at this point."
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