IATA revises down 2019 airline profits, sees stability in 2020

Globalairlines reduced a forecast for industry-wideprofitsin2019under the weight of trade tensions but predicted a modest recovery next year on the assumption that tariff wars will recede in the run-up to the USpresidential election.

Airlinenetprofitsare now expected to fall to $25.9 billion from $27.3 billion last year, before recovering to $29.3 billion in2020, the International Air Transport Association said. In June it had forecast $28 billion in profit for2019.

The starkest deterioration is being felt inairlines' cargo businesseswhere a 3.3 per centdrop in freight demand marked the sharpest decline since the 2009 financial crisis, with revenuedown8per centyear-on-year.

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Growth in world trade has all but evaporated to an expected 0.9 per centthis year, sharplydownfrom the 2.5per centforecast in June and the 4.1 per centexpansion predicted a year ago,IATAsaid.

Underpinning the partial recovery predicted next year,IATAforecast more robust trade growth of 3.3per centas "election-year pressures in the UScontribute to reduced trade tensions".