As India nears its GDP target, experts worry about subdued nominal growth

Although India may be getting closer to its goal of 6.5 per cent real GDP growth in FY24, experts believe that nominal growth may be lower than anticipated, complicating the fiscal equation and delaying the goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy by another year, according to a report by The Economic Times.

According to experts, muted wholesale inflation may prevent nominal GDP growth from exceeding the 10.5 per cent Union Budget target for this fiscal year.

The Economic Times cited Gaura Sengupta, an economist from IDFC First Bank, who indicated that their projection for nominal GDP growth in FY24 is tracking around 9 per cent with a downside risk. Compared to 9.6 per cent the year before, she forecast wholesale inflation to average at 0.2 per cent for this fiscal year.

As per the data released last week, the wholesale price index (WPI), which makes up 70 per cent of the GDP deflator used to compute nominal GDP, experienced deflation for the fifth consecutive month in August.

Compared to a 1.36 per cent deflation in July, WPI-based inflation dropped by 0.52 per cent in August.

As the base effects diminish, experts claim that WPI will start to trend upward starting in September, but they predict that inflation will remain low for the remainder of the fiscal year.

A rating company called CareEdge expects wholesale inflation to be between 1 per cent and 2 per cent in FY24.

Sengupta stated that tax receipts are showing the effects of the muted nominal growth.

“The impact of the slowdown in nominal GDP growth is already visible with gross tax collection growth slowing to 2.8 per cent YoY in FYTD24 (Financial Year-to-Date) (Apr to Jul), with a decline in corporate tax collections and a slowdown in income tax growth. Even GST tax collections where compliance is improving, a slowdown is seen in nominal growth rates to 11 per cent in FYTD24 (Apr to Aug) from 33 per cent in FYTD23,” The Economic Times quoted Sengupta as saying.

Others claim that low or negative wholesale price increases may prevent that, notwithstanding Sengupta's optimism that the government will be able to achieve its 5.9 per cent fiscal deficit objective with moderate expenditures.

According to Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis, deficit ratios might increase by as much as 0.2 percentage points if nominal growth approaches the real growth rate of 6.5 per cent.

Real GDP growth in the first quarter of FY24 was 7.8 per cent, while nominal GDP growth was just slightly higher at 8 per cent.

The delay in reaching the goal of a $5 trillion economy, according to Sabnavis, is another obstacle.

"This (6.5 per cent nominal growth) will push forward the year when we can hope to touch the $5-trillion mark," The Economic Times quoted Sabnavis as saying.

By 2026–2027, India is expected to surpass Japan as the third-largest economy in the world, according to the IMF, when its economy will reach $5 trillion.

In FY24, Sabnavis projects a nominal GDP growth rate of 8–9 per cent.

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