The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes.

In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened?

The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem.

The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42 per cent of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13 per cent believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53 per cent&nbsp;of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17 per cent were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favour of Modi and the BJP. 
 
The Pulwama effect and populist sops

The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister.

In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3 per cent. This has risen to a high of 26 per cent. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history.

At the start of 2019, 37 per cent of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31 per cent felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election. 
 
Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters.

By March 7, 2019, 45 per cent people reported improved living standards and only 22 per cent said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51 per cent respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36 per cent on January 1. The combination of sops to voter and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi.

In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favour.

Rahul Gandhi - Modi's best friend

At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23 per cent on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8 per cent

Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favour, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019.

The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favouring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment.

Banana peels still remain

In India, the anti-incumbency factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27 per cent wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20 per cent, a still significant figure.

Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42 per cent to 47 per cent. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee.

In 2014, people voted for non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetisation, as well as, the imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress.

In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one.

In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament.

A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path.

(This article was originally published on The Fair Observer. Read the <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/narendra-modi-bjp-win-indian-election-news-south-asia-world-news-today-39084/">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer.

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes. In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened? The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem. The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42 per cent of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13 per cent believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53 per cent of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17 per cent were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favour of Modi and the BJP. The Pulwama effect and populist sops The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister. In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3 per cent. This has risen to a high of 26 per cent. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history. At the start of 2019, 37 per cent of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31 per cent felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election. Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters. By March 7, 2019, 45 per cent people reported improved living standards and only 22 per cent said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51 per cent respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36 per cent on January 1. The combination of sops to voter and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi. In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favour. Rahul Gandhi - Modi's best friend At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23 per cent on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8 per cent Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favour, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019. The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favouring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment. Banana peels still remain In India, the anti-incumbency factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27 per cent wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20 per cent, a still significant figure. Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42 per cent to 47 per cent. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee. In 2014, people voted for non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetisation, as well as, the imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress. In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one. In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament. A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path. (This article was originally published on The Fair Observer. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Understanding the 2019 Indian elections

Stockholm Syndrome or Spiral of Silence?

Right after demonetisation, we started a series of tracking polls to gauge the public sentiment around it. First things first: while in November 2016, as many as 85 per cent Indians believed that the troubles they faced during demonetisation were absolutely worth the fight against black money. As of today, that number has come crashing down to just 63 per cent. That's a huge drop of 22 per cent in support for the drastic move within a gap of 24 months.

While this number could fancy any Modi-baiter to say that the public has finally said what it wanted to say, it is equally important to note that even after so much of hardship and shine coming off the (mis)adventure, two out of three Indians still support demonetisation as of today. Yes, this is down from four out of five in 2016, but 2 out of 3 is not small a number. Certainly, in a FPTP democracy where Parties tend to get a majority with just over 33 per cent votes this figure matters.

However, this statement becomes interesting in light of 43 per cent Indians considering it a personal setback. Why does demonetisation still enjoy public support of a two-third majority despite negatively impacting more people? Seems PM Modi has hijacked the narrative on the debate on 'national interest'.

If that is true, one probability can be that a large part of the populace is struck with Stockholm Syndrome. They are in awe of the government taking such a drastic measure and pulling it off in no time. Hence, they seek to be on the side of their tormentor and sympathize with the mission of cash eradication! 
 
Demonetisation as a policy move is akin to major surgery of the body - it has beneficial impacts and side-effects that become apparent over time. When this policy was implemented in 2016, there were two questions lingering in public discourse: 
 
&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;a) What will be the actual impacts of this move on nation, in the long run? 
&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;b) How will people perceive the move today and tomorrow, given that this move was bound to generate some pain?

At Cvoter, we have tracked the public sentiment on this important issue since 2016 and have concluded the 7th wave of demonetisation tracker. 
 
The other probability is of stigmatisation of criticism. Prime Minister Modi in his rallies has repeatedly stated that "those hurt the most, are crying out the loudest". In other words, the critics of the policy are the ones who were hoarding the money in cash and now they were trying to vent their frustration. Thus, people could go in a spiral of silence and give socially acceptable replies when asked survey questions. If it is the former than electoral advantage will lie with the NDA but if it is the latter case, then it is advantage opposition.

Time has tempered the support and positive sentiment enjoyed by demonetisation. Demographic groups like middle-aged citizens, rural populace and poor have begun to wonder about the move. Although net sentiment among the population is positive, the shrinkage of support for demonetisation is consistent and an ongoing trend.

To answer the questions asked above:

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;a) People largely view demonetisation as a positive move and support its implementation, however, there is a distinct decline in the number of people doing so.

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;b) Increasing number of citizens have begun to view demonetisation as a negative event. Especially the fence sitters have begun to migrate towards the negative territory. In other words, former supporters are turning into critics and former neutrals are also turning critical regarding demonetisation.&nbsp; 
 
The Demonetisation Tracker details stand unpacked as follows: 
 
Demonetisation at a personal level

<img alt="Demonetisation" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7279bfaf-f9d7-4bb9-a20c-86e784c95da5" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Demonetisation1_0.jpg" />

Treating of demonetisation as a setback at personal level, the support for demonetisation has now fallen to its lowest level of 56.5 per cent in wave 7 after an all-time high of 76 per cent in wave 2. The positive sentiment for demonetisation hovered in the early 70s through wave 3-5. From wave 6 onwards there has been a stark decline in support for demonetisation. Perhaps indicative of headwinds in the local economy or a brewing unemployment crisis, post-facto people have begun to increasingly identify demonetisation as a personal setback of sorts. Semi-urban population and middle-aged citizens are two demographic segments who are more negative in their sentiments towards demonetisation.

Worth it?

<img alt="Demonetisation2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3d098afa-cc07-499d-893f-8c6d33323a83" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation2.jpg" />

An exercise like demonetisation was fraught with troubles for common citizens. It was the goodwill of the Union government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi that carried the day in 2016. Today, the net sentiment of demonetisation being worth it has touched an all-time low of 30%. Meaning, the difference between the yay-sayers and nay-sayers is down to just 30 per cent in wave 7, this figure was 82 per cent in wave 2. Somewhere, we have seen more and more people defecting from the yay camp to nay camp between wave 2 and wave 7. Senior citizens are still mostly in favour of the policy at a net sentiment of 54 per cent while middle-aged citizens are the least supportive, with a net sentiment of 17 per cent. Also, worth mentioning are the middle-income group and rural citizens with respective net sentiments of 22 per cent and 26.7 per cent. These voters are high on priority for PM Modi and disaffection among them should be a cause of concern.

 
Was the implementation sound? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="23ea565a-e02d-4825-8f21-aafeb1dee673" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation3.jpg" />

While economists and intelligentsia were in a different mood with respect to the implementation of demonetisation in 2016, they were pushed back by a solid 85 per cent of Indians who believed that demonetisation was implemented in a satisfactory to good manner. Today, the number of those with positive sentiment has not exactly crashed in wave 7, a 66 per cent positive sentiment still constitutes a significant decline. In other words, from more than 4 out of 5 Indian finding the implementation satisfactory, today only 2 out of 3 support its implementation mechanism. Freshers (those below 35 years of age) are more satisfied with the implementation at 72 per cent approval while higher income group is least positive and understandably so.

How about a rollback? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 4" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5671d419-1e84-4541-acea-a17b3d777479" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation-4.jpg" />

India has a history of governments backtracking on unpopular policies or reforms, therefore demonetisation was considered fit for a rollback by some sections. The support for a rollback has increased between 2016-18, although the majority still supports no-rollback or backtracking. Nearly 63 per cent respondents support staying firm on the policy while 33% supported a rollback either in practice or principle. The support for staying firm is down from 84 per cent in 2016 a significant decline. Major declines have happened in the middle-aged and lower income group demographics. 
 
Who was hurt more, rich or the poor? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 5" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6f7e3bba-9acc-49d7-9273-c9673ad26aa0" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation_5.jpg" />

Politically, demonetisation was a safe policy as it hurt the proverbial 'haves' of a corrupt system. Surprisingly, while the perception of demonetisation has shifted across the board on this metric, the perception of demonetisation has remained largely stable. 48.5 per cent believe that demonetisation has hit the poor more, while 35.5% believe that rich were hurt more. Despite apparent stability, it is worth noting that poor continue to believe that they sacrificed more for implementation of this policy measure. Therefore, they may seek more political entitlement and an absence of such measure may trigger discontent against the government. 
 
Does living through demonetisation change your views? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 6" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="456bc763-bfb6-4012-baa4-81011ea3ea22" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation_6.jpg" />

Fewer respondents (44 per cent) supported demonetisation after having experienced it in 2016. In 2018, 59 per cent people supported demonetisation having experienced the aftermath. However, the people who oppose it and intend to punish BJP by voting against it have risen from 13 per cent in 2016 to 20 per cent in 2018. Politically, this signifies a deep and rising polarisation over the question of demonetisation - supporters and detractors are firming up their positions. 
 
The aftershocks of demonetisation? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 7" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="62df15d9-c7dd-4475-8884-afdef171133f" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation7.jpg" />

A majority 51 per cent people say that there is no persistent problem post-demonetisation in 2018, a huge rise when compared to 11 per cent in 2016. This is a heartening statistic for the government as it signifies that there are fewer long-term implications of demonetisation on citizens and some of the anger on ground is indicative of the memory of instantaneous events in 2016. The only statistic of concern is 18.5 per cent respondents saying that their problems have increased - this is a rise over the 12.3 per cent in 2016.&nbsp; 
 
Prime Minister's popularity? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 8" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9a761be7-a7f2-40ab-bf50-60ef90549440" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation8.jpg" />

Demonetisation left 17 per cent of the population in limbo and they professed no opinion in 2016 on its impact on PM Modi's popularity. Worryingly for the PM, roughly 13 per cent of these have migrated to the decreased popularity column by 2018. The column for respondents who thought this might result in increased popularity has undergone a mild decline from 52 per cent in 2016 to 49 per cent in 2018. Although PM Modi's stock remains high, the high conversion rate of neutrals to critics is a cause of concern. Perhaps the loyalists have stuck it out with the PM but the fence sitters are choosing otherwise. 
 
Sentiment on economy? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 9" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bec9ec54-b816-4d11-8e18-7bd4313bf773" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetsaition9.jpg" />

The dominant and almost-majority sentiment of respondents in 2016 predicted a recovery after short-term blip for the economy. 49&nbsp; per cent respondents averred that economy may dip for a while and then recover strongly. This sentiment has crashed down to 29.5 per cent now, whereas the bearish sentiment of a long-lasting recession has strengthened from 12 per cent in 2016 to 28 per cent in 2018. Interestingly, the bullish sentiment has also strengthened from 19.5 per cent in 2016 to 29 per cent in 2018. This is yet another indicator of the deep vertical divide that come to occupy Indian polity in all matters of national discourse. 
 
Conclusion: Good idea or bad idea? 
 
<img alt="Demonetisation 10" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4102bc7f-4e1b-44c1-9fd0-261fbb86a4f0" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/demonetisation-10.jpg" />

In 2016, 27 per cent respondents thought that demonetisation was a good step but poorly implemented. This figure declined to 17 per cent by 2018 and most of the migration of opinion occurred towards the option of "bad step which is poorly implemented". The respondents who believed in it rose from 5 per cent in 2016 to 28.5 per cent in 2018, this indicates yet again the trend of fence sitters migrating towards the critics' category. The supporters of the demonetisation in toto declined from 66 per cent in 2016 to 51 per cent in 2018. In other words, demonetisation has lost supporters and managed to drive the fence sitters away, something somewhere has not clicked with sections of society. 
 
Although the net sentiment continues to be positive, the presence of pain in politically significant sections of society is undeniable and salient. Whether that will the have mild or huge impact on upcoming Lok Sabha election 2019 is a matter of conjecture.

(This article was originally published on The <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/blogs/63-of-indians-still-support-demonetisation-but-that-number-has-fallen-2163127.html">Zeenews</a>. Read the original article)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Stockholm Syndrome or Spiral of Silence? Right after demonetisation, we started a series of tracking polls to gauge the public sentiment around it. First things first: while in November 2016, as many as 85 per cent Indians believed that the troubles they faced during demonetisation were absolutely worth the fight against black money.

Stockholm Syndrome or Spiral of Silence? Right after demonetisation, we started a series of tracking polls to gauge the public sentiment around it. First things first: while in November 2016, as many as 85 per cent Indians believed that the troubles they faced during demonetisation were absolutely worth the fight against black money. As of today, that number has come crashing down to just 63 per cent. That's a huge drop of 22 per cent in support for the drastic move within a gap of 24 months. While this number could fancy any Modi-baiter to say that the public has finally said what it wanted to say, it is equally important to note that even after so much of hardship and shine coming off the (mis)adventure, two out of three Indians still support demonetisation as of today. Yes, this is down from four out of five in 2016, but 2 out of 3 is not small a number. Certainly, in a FPTP democracy where Parties tend to get a majority with just over 33 per cent votes this figure matters. However, this statement becomes interesting in light of 43 per cent Indians considering it a personal setback. Why does demonetisation still enjoy public support of a two-third majority despite negatively impacting more people? Seems PM Modi has hijacked the narrative on the debate on 'national interest'. If that is true, one probability can be that a large part of the populace is struck with Stockholm Syndrome. They are in awe of the government taking such a drastic measure and pulling it off in no time. Hence, they seek to be on the side of their tormentor and sympathize with the mission of cash eradication! Demonetisation as a policy move is akin to major surgery of the body - it has beneficial impacts and side-effects that become apparent over time. When this policy was implemented in 2016, there were two questions lingering in public discourse: a) What will be the actual impacts of this move on nation, in the long run? b) How will people perceive the move today and tomorrow, given that this move was bound to generate some pain? At Cvoter, we have tracked the public sentiment on this important issue since 2016 and have concluded the 7th wave of demonetisation tracker. The other probability is of stigmatisation of criticism. Prime Minister Modi in his rallies has repeatedly stated that "those hurt the most, are crying out the loudest". In other words, the critics of the policy are the ones who were hoarding the money in cash and now they were trying to vent their frustration. Thus, people could go in a spiral of silence and give socially acceptable replies when asked survey questions. If it is the former than electoral advantage will lie with the NDA but if it is the latter case, then it is advantage opposition. Time has tempered the support and positive sentiment enjoyed by demonetisation. Demographic groups like middle-aged citizens, rural populace and poor have begun to wonder about the move. Although net sentiment among the population is positive, the shrinkage of support for demonetisation is consistent and an ongoing trend. To answer the questions asked above: a) People largely view demonetisation as a positive move and support its implementation, however, there is a distinct decline in the number of people doing so. b) Increasing number of citizens have begun to view demonetisation as a negative event. Especially the fence sitters have begun to migrate towards the negative territory. In other words, former supporters are turning into critics and former neutrals are also turning critical regarding demonetisation. The Demonetisation Tracker details stand unpacked as follows: Demonetisation at a personal level Treating of demonetisation as a setback at personal level, the support for demonetisation has now fallen to its lowest level of 56.5 per cent in wave 7 after an all-time high of 76 per cent in wave 2. The positive sentiment for demonetisation hovered in the early 70s through wave 3-5. From wave 6 onwards there has been a stark decline in support for demonetisation. Perhaps indicative of headwinds in the local economy or a brewing unemployment crisis, post-facto people have begun to increasingly identify demonetisation as a personal setback of sorts. Semi-urban population and middle-aged citizens are two demographic segments who are more negative in their sentiments towards demonetisation. Worth it? An exercise like demonetisation was fraught with troubles for common citizens. It was the goodwill of the Union government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi that carried the day in 2016. Today, the net sentiment of demonetisation being worth it has touched an all-time low of 30%. Meaning, the difference between the yay-sayers and nay-sayers is down to just 30 per cent in wave 7, this figure was 82 per cent in wave 2. Somewhere, we have seen more and more people defecting from the yay camp to nay camp between wave 2 and wave 7. Senior citizens are still mostly in favour of the policy at a net sentiment of 54 per cent while middle-aged citizens are the least supportive, with a net sentiment of 17 per cent. Also, worth mentioning are the middle-income group and rural citizens with respective net sentiments of 22 per cent and 26.7 per cent. These voters are high on priority for PM Modi and disaffection among them should be a cause of concern. Was the implementation sound? While economists and intelligentsia were in a different mood with respect to the implementation of demonetisation in 2016, they were pushed back by a solid 85 per cent of Indians who believed that demonetisation was implemented in a satisfactory to good manner. Today, the number of those with positive sentiment has not exactly crashed in wave 7, a 66 per cent positive sentiment still constitutes a significant decline. In other words, from more than 4 out of 5 Indian finding the implementation satisfactory, today only 2 out of 3 support its implementation mechanism. Freshers (those below 35 years of age) are more satisfied with the implementation at 72 per cent approval while higher income group is least positive and understandably so. How about a rollback? India has a history of governments backtracking on unpopular policies or reforms, therefore demonetisation was considered fit for a rollback by some sections. The support for a rollback has increased between 2016-18, although the majority still supports no-rollback or backtracking. Nearly 63 per cent respondents support staying firm on the policy while 33% supported a rollback either in practice or principle. The support for staying firm is down from 84 per cent in 2016 a significant decline. Major declines have happened in the middle-aged and lower income group demographics. Who was hurt more, rich or the poor? Politically, demonetisation was a safe policy as it hurt the proverbial 'haves' of a corrupt system. Surprisingly, while the perception of demonetisation has shifted across the board on this metric, the perception of demonetisation has remained largely stable. 48.5 per cent believe that demonetisation has hit the poor more, while 35.5% believe that rich were hurt more. Despite apparent stability, it is worth noting that poor continue to believe that they sacrificed more for implementation of this policy measure. Therefore, they may seek more political entitlement and an absence of such measure may trigger discontent against the government. Does living through demonetisation change your views? Fewer respondents (44 per cent) supported demonetisation after having experienced it in 2016. In 2018, 59 per cent people supported demonetisation having experienced the aftermath. However, the people who oppose it and intend to punish BJP by voting against it have risen from 13 per cent in 2016 to 20 per cent in 2018. Politically, this signifies a deep and rising polarisation over the question of demonetisation - supporters and detractors are firming up their positions. The aftershocks of demonetisation? A majority 51 per cent people say that there is no persistent problem post-demonetisation in 2018, a huge rise when compared to 11 per cent in 2016. This is a heartening statistic for the government as it signifies that there are fewer long-term implications of demonetisation on citizens and some of the anger on ground is indicative of the memory of instantaneous events in 2016. The only statistic of concern is 18.5 per cent respondents saying that their problems have increased - this is a rise over the 12.3 per cent in 2016. Prime Minister's popularity? Demonetisation left 17 per cent of the population in limbo and they professed no opinion in 2016 on its impact on PM Modi's popularity. Worryingly for the PM, roughly 13 per cent of these have migrated to the decreased popularity column by 2018. The column for respondents who thought this might result in increased popularity has undergone a mild decline from 52 per cent in 2016 to 49 per cent in 2018. Although PM Modi's stock remains high, the high conversion rate of neutrals to critics is a cause of concern. Perhaps the loyalists have stuck it out with the PM but the fence sitters are choosing otherwise. Sentiment on economy? The dominant and almost-majority sentiment of respondents in 2016 predicted a recovery after short-term blip for the economy. 49 per cent respondents averred that economy may dip for a while and then recover strongly. This sentiment has crashed down to 29.5 per cent now, whereas the bearish sentiment of a long-lasting recession has strengthened from 12 per cent in 2016 to 28 per cent in 2018. Interestingly, the bullish sentiment has also strengthened from 19.5 per cent in 2016 to 29 per cent in 2018. This is yet another indicator of the deep vertical divide that come to occupy Indian polity in all matters of national discourse. Conclusion: Good idea or bad idea? In 2016, 27 per cent respondents thought that demonetisation was a good step but poorly implemented. This figure declined to 17 per cent by 2018 and most of the migration of opinion occurred towards the option of "bad step which is poorly implemented". The respondents who believed in it rose from 5 per cent in 2016 to 28.5 per cent in 2018, this indicates yet again the trend of fence sitters migrating towards the critics' category. The supporters of the demonetisation in toto declined from 66 per cent in 2016 to 51 per cent in 2018. In other words, demonetisation has lost supporters and managed to drive the fence sitters away, something somewhere has not clicked with sections of society. Although the net sentiment continues to be positive, the presence of pain in politically significant sections of society is undeniable and salient. Whether that will the have mild or huge impact on upcoming Lok Sabha election 2019 is a matter of conjecture. (This article was originally published on The Zeenews. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Support remains strong for both demonetisation and PM Narendra Modi

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are crucial heartland states that enabled BJP's stellar performance in 2014. According to the Cvoter opinion poll, Congress seems to be in the poll position in all 3 states. In Rajasthan, Congress leads by a strong margin whereas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the fight is close. In fact, the election in the latter two might well be decided quite late in the day, dependent upon factors such as campaign strategy, ticket allocation and infighting among others.

Highly critical will be the choice of chief ministerial candidates as leadership question is a point of concern for Congress. Particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the respective BJP Chief Ministers viz Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh continue to be very popular. In fact, the major anti-incumbency sentiment seems to be against the incumbent MLAs who have not managed their constituencies well. Perhaps denial of tickets to such non-performing MLAs might help the BJP to blunt the anti-incumbency sentiment, especially considering the less than 1 per cent vote share trail in opinion poll vis a vis Congress.&nbsp;

In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, there is a dead heat between Congress and BJP. This is not the case in Rajasthan, the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is less popular than the main challenger from Congress Sachin Pilot. In MP, Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress is less popular than Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Chattisgarh, the main challenger to chief minister Raman Singh is Ajit Jogi who does not even belong to the Congress. That leaves Rajasthan as the only state where Congress has a leadership rating advantage.&nbsp;

<img alt="Table 1" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f2e65833-5dfb-4106-aa25-045212c57d01" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table-1%20Final.jpg" />

Over and above that, Cvoter survey also dwelled upon the question of a bipolar contest to check the infighting sentiment. That is, when the candidates' field is narrowed down to two main challengers in the fray, there is always a churning among the party supporters who favour one party candidate over the other. In Madhya Pradesh, if the choice between Scindia and Chauhan was presented, Chauhan proved to more popular than Scindia. What is important to underline here is the fact that almost 50 per cent supporters of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not staying loyal to party line for the candidature of Jyotiraditya Scindia in bipolar setup against Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

Almost 25 per cent of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh supporters shift allegiance to BJP CM Candidate and the rest are assuming a neutral position. This clearly opens up the internal fault-lines of Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh.&nbsp; 
 
<img alt="Table 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a602dcd4-4f77-4a5d-b061-bde21cae24a2" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table2.jpg" />

In Chhattisgarh, a direct contest between Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi may precipitate 1/3rd of Congress supporters to shift support to BJP chief minister candidate and another 1/3rd may move to Jogi's camp, the rest are assuming a position of neutrality. This argues rather poorly for a party which is leading over BJP by less than a point at the moment. Jogi becomes a choice by default for many anti-BJP voters just because Congress is unable to give a name for the chief minister post. If the Congress leadership is well defined, it will not take much of a time for the anti-BJP voters getting polarized in a clear-cut manner. 
 
<img alt="Table 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4efd1661-e4e2-4945-9f78-52efab452a77" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table%203.jpg" />

The state of Rajasthan is in complete contrast to MP and Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, a bipolar contest of Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje is clearly producing results in favour of Congress candidate. Almost two-third supporters of other Congress candidates, like Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi, are continuing to support the candidature of Sachin Pilot in a bipolar rating. Unlike other states, the young voters and first-time voters of Rajasthan are rallying for a clean image of the rather young Sachin Pilot. His face is clearly instrumental in swinging the undecided young voters, who otherwise get neutralized by the corruption-tagged image of old Congress leadership in the state.&nbsp; 
 
<img alt="Table 4" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fa9d3d44-451e-4755-98ef-1c484d525d41" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table4.jpg" />

Clearly, Congress is facing infighting and factionalism in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while it comes across as a much-united house in Rajasthan. This point becomes salient in the light of less than 1 per cent projected vote share lead according to the Cvoter opinion poll in the states of MP and Chhattisgarh.

The overwhelming popularity of PM Narendra Modi has been the key electoral weapon for BJP in the past 3-4 years. Election after election in last four years has shown that there is a distinct surge of 3-4 per cent vote share that gets imparted by PM Narendra Modi in closing stages of the campaign. In MP and Chhattisgarh, such a vote surge can easily topple the Congress lead. In the case of Rajasthan, the projected lead of Congress seems to be clear of any potential late surge by BJP. The masses flocking to PM's rallies in Rajasthan may listen to him and vote for him in Lok Sabha elections but for Vidhan Sabha polls the mood seems to be made up.&nbsp;

Finally, Congress is making a mistake by not announcing official candidates in the three states. For examples, in MP an official announcement in favour of Scindia may polarize young voters in favour of Congress, the same may happen in Rajasthan and an official affirmation of Sachin Pilot could produce an electoral dividend thus confirming the Congress victory that is increasingly likely. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress may announce an official candidate such as TS Singh Dev or Bhupesh Baghel to blunt the edge of Ajit Jogi. In fact, currently, Jogi is being favoured only because of non-announcement of a Congress candidate.&nbsp;

Therefore, Congress has all to gain by the announcement of official Chief Ministerial candidates. It may gain that crucial edge over the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh and further solidify its robust lead in Rajasthan. In case this does not happen then a late BJP surge induced by PM Modi's campaign may end up being crucial, however, it is tough to estimate its impact quantitatively as of now.&nbsp;

There is a huge rating deficit that Congress faces when the national Leadership ratings are compared. The gap in approval ratings of NaMo and RaGa is a big electoral liability at the moment for the Congress at large. The only way it can counter that liability is by projecting the much popular young faces at the state level against the state BJP leadership. If done properly, then faces of Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Bhupesh Baghel can do the needful to counter the mega rallies of Narendra Modi in concluding weeks of the campaign. If they continue the blunder in positioning this round as contest of national leaderships, then we all know what kind of punch Mr Modi is capable of delivering.&nbsp;

I don't think Congress wants to take the battle in that direction. 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/blogs/will-congress-blunder-again-by-making-assembly-elections-a-raga-vs-namo-battle-2151613.html">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland.

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are crucial heartland states that enabled BJP's stellar performance in 2014. According to the Cvoter opinion poll, Congress seems to be in the poll position in all 3 states. In Rajasthan, Congress leads by a strong margin whereas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the fight is close. In fact, the election in the latter two might well be decided quite late in the day, dependent upon factors such as campaign strategy, ticket allocation and infighting among others. Highly critical will be the choice of chief ministerial candidates as leadership question is a point of concern for Congress. Particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the respective BJP Chief Ministers viz Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh continue to be very popular. In fact, the major anti-incumbency sentiment seems to be against the incumbent MLAs who have not managed their constituencies well. Perhaps denial of tickets to such non-performing MLAs might help the BJP to blunt the anti-incumbency sentiment, especially considering the less than 1 per cent vote share trail in opinion poll vis a vis Congress. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, there is a dead heat between Congress and BJP. This is not the case in Rajasthan, the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is less popular than the main challenger from Congress Sachin Pilot. In MP, Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress is less popular than Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Chattisgarh, the main challenger to chief minister Raman Singh is Ajit Jogi who does not even belong to the Congress. That leaves Rajasthan as the only state where Congress has a leadership rating advantage. Over and above that, Cvoter survey also dwelled upon the question of a bipolar contest to check the infighting sentiment. That is, when the candidates' field is narrowed down to two main challengers in the fray, there is always a churning among the party supporters who favour one party candidate over the other. In Madhya Pradesh, if the choice between Scindia and Chauhan was presented, Chauhan proved to more popular than Scindia. What is important to underline here is the fact that almost 50 per cent supporters of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not staying loyal to party line for the candidature of Jyotiraditya Scindia in bipolar setup against Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Almost 25 per cent of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh supporters shift allegiance to BJP CM Candidate and the rest are assuming a neutral position. This clearly opens up the internal fault-lines of Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh. In Chhattisgarh, a direct contest between Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi may precipitate 1/3rd of Congress supporters to shift support to BJP chief minister candidate and another 1/3rd may move to Jogi's camp, the rest are assuming a position of neutrality. This argues rather poorly for a party which is leading over BJP by less than a point at the moment. Jogi becomes a choice by default for many anti-BJP voters just because Congress is unable to give a name for the chief minister post. If the Congress leadership is well defined, it will not take much of a time for the anti-BJP voters getting polarized in a clear-cut manner. The state of Rajasthan is in complete contrast to MP and Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, a bipolar contest of Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje is clearly producing results in favour of Congress candidate. Almost two-third supporters of other Congress candidates, like Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi, are continuing to support the candidature of Sachin Pilot in a bipolar rating. Unlike other states, the young voters and first-time voters of Rajasthan are rallying for a clean image of the rather young Sachin Pilot. His face is clearly instrumental in swinging the undecided young voters, who otherwise get neutralized by the corruption-tagged image of old Congress leadership in the state. Clearly, Congress is facing infighting and factionalism in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while it comes across as a much-united house in Rajasthan. This point becomes salient in the light of less than 1 per cent projected vote share lead according to the Cvoter opinion poll in the states of MP and Chhattisgarh. The overwhelming popularity of PM Narendra Modi has been the key electoral weapon for BJP in the past 3-4 years. Election after election in last four years has shown that there is a distinct surge of 3-4 per cent vote share that gets imparted by PM Narendra Modi in closing stages of the campaign. In MP and Chhattisgarh, such a vote surge can easily topple the Congress lead. In the case of Rajasthan, the projected lead of Congress seems to be clear of any potential late surge by BJP. The masses flocking to PM's rallies in Rajasthan may listen to him and vote for him in Lok Sabha elections but for Vidhan Sabha polls the mood seems to be made up. Finally, Congress is making a mistake by not announcing official candidates in the three states. For examples, in MP an official announcement in favour of Scindia may polarize young voters in favour of Congress, the same may happen in Rajasthan and an official affirmation of Sachin Pilot could produce an electoral dividend thus confirming the Congress victory that is increasingly likely. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress may announce an official candidate such as TS Singh Dev or Bhupesh Baghel to blunt the edge of Ajit Jogi. In fact, currently, Jogi is being favoured only because of non-announcement of a Congress candidate. Therefore, Congress has all to gain by the announcement of official Chief Ministerial candidates. It may gain that crucial edge over the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh and further solidify its robust lead in Rajasthan. In case this does not happen then a late BJP surge induced by PM Modi's campaign may end up being crucial, however, it is tough to estimate its impact quantitatively as of now. There is a huge rating deficit that Congress faces when the national Leadership ratings are compared. The gap in approval ratings of NaMo and RaGa is a big electoral liability at the moment for the Congress at large. The only way it can counter that liability is by projecting the much popular young faces at the state level against the state BJP leadership. If done properly, then faces of Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Bhupesh Baghel can do the needful to counter the mega rallies of Narendra Modi in concluding weeks of the campaign. If they continue the blunder in positioning this round as contest of national leaderships, then we all know what kind of punch Mr Modi is capable of delivering. I don't think Congress wants to take the battle in that direction. (This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Will Congress blunder again by making Assembly elections a Rahul vs Modi battle?

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Zee News Rajasthan

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Yashwant Deshmukh

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