Few people remain influential at 100. They are either dead or about to die, frail in mind and body.

Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State, is both alive and influential. He might be frail in body, but his mind is sharp. Having outlived almost all his detractors, the man once accused of a dark side that changed much of the world, has evolved over the past decades into a statesman feted by leaders globally. Nobody alive has more experience of international affairs than him, The Economist magazine recently wrote after interviewing him.

If Kissinger’s actions in countries such as Cambodia, Lao, Vietnam, Chile, Bangladesh, and Argentina among others were questionable and deeply criticised, he did have a few credits to his account, which he used well to keep himself relevant in the more than four decades since he last held any official position in the US government.

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-defence-secretary-austin-and-german-defence-minister-pistorius-to-visit-india-596719">US Defence Secretary Austin and German Defence Minister Pistorius to visit India</a>

Kissinger’s biggest coup was bringing China out from behind the Iron Curtain at the peak of the Cold War when in 1971, he made a secret visit to Beijing after feigning illness while on an official visit to Islamabad. He jumped on a Pakistan air force aircraft and travelled to meet the Great Helmsman Mao Zedong and his deputy Chou Enlai and eventually ended up becoming a trusted friend of and advisor to successive Chinese leaders. He also must be credited with initiatives around détente with the Soviet Union and the Middle East shuttle diplomacy in the 1970s when the world was hit by the first oil crisis.

In the book A New Cold War – Henry Kissinger and the Rise of China that I co-edited we talk about how that trip and a later visit by then US&nbsp;President Richard Nixon redefined US-China relations and the global balance of power forever. More significant than the political and diplomatic stamp of acceptance was the economic empowerment of China thanks to the supportive US&nbsp;and trade policies. Kissinger, in many ways, helped create an economic behemoth that Americans today hate and fear.

Kissinger has probably written as much on issues of national and international importance as he has been written about. An army of reporters and authors have slammed him and lauded him too. Intrepid journalist Seymour Hersh “gave us the defining portrait of Kissinger as a preening paranoid, tacking between ruthlessness and sycophancy to advance his career, cursing his fate and letting fly the B-52s,” Greg Grandin wrote in his book Kissinger’s Shadows – The Long Reach of America’s Most Controversial Statesman.&nbsp; 
 
“Kissinger, in Hersh’s hands, is nonetheless Shakespearean because the pettiness gets played out on a world stage with epic consequences,” he wrote.

Indeed, Kissinger’s shadow has been both long and wide and sometimes dark. Historical documents, many available in the National Security Archives of the US record his role in the overthrow of the leadership in Chile, support for genocidal wars, secret bombing campaigns in Southeast Asia and secret wiretapping of his own officials.

And then there was East Pakistan, which became Bangladesh but not before Pakistani military carried out what the US&nbsp;envoy to Dhaka called a ‘selective genocide’ that left half a million dead, hundreds of thousands of women raped and burdened India with millions of refugees pouring in from across the border.

Kissinger and Nixon both turned a blind eye to missives from American officials in Dhaka who in a diplomatic cable accused their own government of “bending over backwards to placate the West Pak dominated government and to lessen likely and deservedly negative international public relations impact against them.” The secret military support to Pakistan continued.

In November 1971, as India grappled with the crisis and prepared to go to war against Pakistan, its western neighbour, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi travelled to Washington for talks on the issue. Nixon and Kissinger, hugely obliged to Islamabad for its help in reaching out to the Chinese weren’t very excited about the visit. Declassified documents report a conversation between the two in which Kissinger called Indians “bastards” and Nixon called Gandhi a “bitch’.

So, who is the Kissinger we might want to remember? Somebody who needed to be charged as a war criminal for the bombings in Cambodia or a sober statesman with a worldview that we need to follow?

After stepping down from the government, Kissinger reinvented himself as an advisor to global political and business leaders. He has spent time writing about and commenting on issues that matter, including jointly penning a book on challenges posed to the world by the spread of artificial intelligence.

WATCH |&nbsp;US is only two weeks away from defaulting

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There are few others than Kissinger who understand the complications around great-power confrontation as the United States and China continue to bare their teeth at each other in a world battling very different geopolitical challenges post the Covid epidemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine – both of which have introduced new economic and political uncertainties to the world.

Kissinger’s advantage is that he knows and respects history. He understands global blocs and national interests. Though an avid proponent of realism, Kissinger also appreciates that the new world needs new paradigms. Moreover, he has lived through several US presidents and every Chinese leader from Mao to Xi Jinping to appreciate the impact of the deepening fault lines between a superpower and a nation trying to be powerful.

At 100, he understands the new world and knows there is no guaranteed course. It might be worth looking at him now more as a sober statesman.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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Few people remain influential at 100. They are either dead or about to die, frail in mind and body. Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State, is both alive and influential.

Few people remain influential at 100. They are either dead or about to die, frail in mind and body. Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State, is both alive and influential. He might be frail in body, but his mind is sharp. Having outlived almost all his detractors, the man once accused of a dark side that changed much of the world, has evolved over the past decades into a statesman feted by leaders globally. Nobody alive has more experience of international affairs than him, The Economist magazine recently wrote after interviewing him. If Kissinger’s actions in countries such as Cambodia, Lao, Vietnam, Chile, Bangladesh, and Argentina among others were questionable and deeply criticised, he did have a few credits to his account, which he used well to keep himself relevant in the more than four decades since he last held any official position in the US government. ALSO READ | US Defence Secretary Austin and German Defence Minister Pistorius to visit India Kissinger’s biggest coup was bringing China out from behind the Iron Curtain at the peak of the Cold War when in 1971, he made a secret visit to Beijing after feigning illness while on an official visit to Islamabad. He jumped on a Pakistan air force aircraft and travelled to meet the Great Helmsman Mao Zedong and his deputy Chou Enlai and eventually ended up becoming a trusted friend of and advisor to successive Chinese leaders. He also must be credited with initiatives around détente with the Soviet Union and the Middle East shuttle diplomacy in the 1970s when the world was hit by the first oil crisis. In the book A New Cold War – Henry Kissinger and the Rise of China that I co-edited we talk about how that trip and a later visit by then US President Richard Nixon redefined US-China relations and the global balance of power forever. More significant than the political and diplomatic stamp of acceptance was the economic empowerment of China thanks to the supportive US and trade policies. Kissinger, in many ways, helped create an economic behemoth that Americans today hate and fear. Kissinger has probably written as much on issues of national and international importance as he has been written about. An army of reporters and authors have slammed him and lauded him too. Intrepid journalist Seymour Hersh “gave us the defining portrait of Kissinger as a preening paranoid, tacking between ruthlessness and sycophancy to advance his career, cursing his fate and letting fly the B-52s,” Greg Grandin wrote in his book Kissinger’s Shadows – The Long Reach of America’s Most Controversial Statesman. “Kissinger, in Hersh’s hands, is nonetheless Shakespearean because the pettiness gets played out on a world stage with epic consequences,” he wrote. Indeed, Kissinger’s shadow has been both long and wide and sometimes dark. Historical documents, many available in the National Security Archives of the US record his role in the overthrow of the leadership in Chile, support for genocidal wars, secret bombing campaigns in Southeast Asia and secret wiretapping of his own officials. And then there was East Pakistan, which became Bangladesh but not before Pakistani military carried out what the US envoy to Dhaka called a ‘selective genocide’ that left half a million dead, hundreds of thousands of women raped and burdened India with millions of refugees pouring in from across the border. Kissinger and Nixon both turned a blind eye to missives from American officials in Dhaka who in a diplomatic cable accused their own government of “bending over backwards to placate the West Pak dominated government and to lessen likely and deservedly negative international public relations impact against them.” The secret military support to Pakistan continued. In November 1971, as India grappled with the crisis and prepared to go to war against Pakistan, its western neighbour, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi travelled to Washington for talks on the issue. Nixon and Kissinger, hugely obliged to Islamabad for its help in reaching out to the Chinese weren’t very excited about the visit. Declassified documents report a conversation between the two in which Kissinger called Indians “bastards” and Nixon called Gandhi a “bitch’. So, who is the Kissinger we might want to remember? Somebody who needed to be charged as a war criminal for the bombings in Cambodia or a sober statesman with a worldview that we need to follow? After stepping down from the government, Kissinger reinvented himself as an advisor to global political and business leaders. He has spent time writing about and commenting on issues that matter, including jointly penning a book on challenges posed to the world by the spread of artificial intelligence. WATCH | US is only two weeks away from defaulting There are few others than Kissinger who understand the complications around great-power confrontation as the United States and China continue to bare their teeth at each other in a world battling very different geopolitical challenges post the Covid epidemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine – both of which have introduced new economic and political uncertainties to the world. Kissinger’s advantage is that he knows and respects history. He understands global blocs and national interests. Though an avid proponent of realism, Kissinger also appreciates that the new world needs new paradigms. Moreover, he has lived through several US presidents and every Chinese leader from Mao to Xi Jinping to appreciate the impact of the deepening fault lines between a superpower and a nation trying to be powerful. At 100, he understands the new world and knows there is no guaranteed course. It might be worth looking at him now more as a sober statesman. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here. WATCH WION LIVE HERE

Henry Kissinger at 100: A crooked legacy

The rabbit is a sign of peace, prosperity, and longevity in Chinese culture. So, as we travel into 2023 – the Year of the Rabbit -- we start with the hope that the growling Tiger that caused pain to the world this year is left behind for good, locked away for at least the next dozen years.

The rabbit is a sign of peace, prosperity, and longevity in Chinese culture. So, as we travel into 2023 – the Year of the Rabbit -- we start with the hope that the growling Tiger that caused pain to the world this year is left behind for good, locked away for at least the next dozen years. This year has been one of a war in Europe, high inflation, economic hardship, rising food prices and interest rates, and a China that first refused to lift its Covid lockdowns and then suddenly swung the other way. What will the next turn out to be like? Let us look at some of the issues that might crowd our mind and life spaces. The Middle Nation Dilemma The world will be watching China very closely, as it reopens after a prolonged Covid-triggered lockdown and looks at pushing its economy rapidly ahead and flexes its political, diplomatic, and economic muscles. The Covid Zero policy is out and people will have to get used to living with the virus that devastated the world in 2020 and 2021. Hospitals will be under stress and so will businesses as they stave off very different challenges than the ones faced during lockdowns. However, the Chinese economy is still predicted to grow at more than 4 per cent. The first few months of the New Year will decide whether the Year of the Rabbit turns out to be benign, peaceful, and prosperous, or whether the remnants of the growling Tiger will still play a role. Diplomatically, China will continue to face pressure from the West which now considers it as a sworn enemy. Militarily, China will flex its muscles, pushing neighbours and further raising uncertainties in Asia and elsewhere. On trade, it might see some targeted concessions from the United States, but it is unlikely their relations would return to what they were pre-Covid. The reality is that the Chinese economy has become too big for the usual U.S. sanctions to impact it beyond a point. China has other countries to potentially partner with in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Still, the United States will continue to work towards isolating China on technology in the hope that Beijing will fall in line on other contentious issues. What’s the Face Saver? The war in Ukraine would continue, with Russia putting further pressure as winter deepens and many European countries face shortages of gas for homes and industry. While the United States would like to keep the pressure on Russia, a frustrated Europe would eventually want a way out for Moscow – some face-saver that would help Russian President Vladimir Putin pull back claiming victory. After the long war in Afghanistan, there is only that much appetite for another in Ukraine. However, the larger and sustained economic cost of the war that pushed food and energy prices to all-time highs this year, is yet to be ascertained. It is a matter of who gives in first with Europe heading into a recession. Keep a close look at the conversations in several world capitals as the snow subsides in spring. The Shift in The Middle East The Gulf countries, fresh from making money from high oil prices and basking in the glory of hosting a football World Cup, will continue to invest in relationships beyond their traditional ties with the United States. Saudi Arabia – the region’s biggest economy – welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping in a snub to Washington and signed deals worth billions of dollars. In a post-Ukraine war world, larger Gulf nations would be more careful about their self-interest and open to dealing with others. Oil will continue to play an important role in the relationships Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates form with larger nations such as China, Russia, and India. How will the Gulf oil economies play their hand in 2023 will be important. The New Most-Populous Nation India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation, becoming the world’s biggest marketplace and positioning itself as a strong alternative to its northern neighbour for industrial and technological investments. For a country, which is increasingly seen as a “bright spot” in an otherwise uncertain world, 2023 can be a huge year as it dons the G20 presidency and tries to lead from the front on critical issues facing the world as well as become a much-needed bridge between the Global North and Global South as the world realigns. India, which recently replaced Britain as the world’s fifth-largest economy, is slated to take the third spot by the end of this decade. The new crown and its steadily growing economy might place India in the right spot to claim a seat on the UN Security Council. Watch India closely. Who Gets the Chips? The decades-old ties between Washington and Beijing are changing fast, as the Biden administration pushes hard to drop thick walls between China and the chips in its effort to curb the technological rise of the world’s second-biggest economy. After years of deep technological and political engagement, the United States has finally accepted that the Chinese economy is state-led, and not market driven. Given the long-standing linkages between the two economies, there is only that much that the United States can push back on trade with its sanctions and tariffs. The focus, therefore, is on starving China of technology – an area that China has moved fast in but is still behind the United States in key segments. Drying up the chips supplies and bringing the semiconductors back to its shores to gain an upper hand over China is part of the U.S. plan to protect itself from future shocks and threats. Who, therefore, gets those chips will be something to watch for in 2023. Back to Work, Again The dreaded Covid virus is on a rampage in China, just as the rest of the world prepares to get back to fully working from workplaces after three years of a work-from-home and work-from-home-and-also-from-office world. There are people who want to be back in offices, meeting colleagues and pumping their social batteries after months of isolation. There are also many who would still want to live and work in their pyjamas. The battle is real for businesses, which want people back in the office. Nothing works better than face-to-face meetings for faster and focused decision-making. Do expect a lot more people to return for longer to offices. The stragglers might not enjoy being left out as the world has started travelling and partying hard. Many more businesses will take a tough call in 2023 than the year that’s going by. Cut To the Green The shift to renewable power is accelerating thanks to the global energy crisis, and the International Energy Agency expects total capacity growth worldwide set to almost double in the next five years, overtaking coal as the largest source of electricity generation along the way and helping keep alive the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. The war in Ukraine increased the speed of the shift and global renewable power capacity is now expected to grow by 2,400 gigawatts (GW) over the 2022-2027 period. That is an amount equal to the entire power capacity of China today. Can European governments and businesses replace the Russian gas that has powered these nations? Next year will have a strong story to tell, as India, China and the United States lead the change. But Then It is The Economy, Stupid! High inflation is killing the world, its businesses and people, and by the looks of it, the trendline isn’t going to be dropping any soon. Several factors had a role to play this year – tighter supply chains, Covid-related stimuli, and higher food and fuel prices due to the war in Ukraine, all of which triggered monetary tightening by central banks that raised interest rates. There are strands of goodness ahead as some of these factors are becoming less of a worry given consumer prices are on the decline thanks to easing supplies, oil prices are back to their previous year levels and high-interest rates have choked demand. Do expect a slowdown, but the debate over a recession is still on as central banks might begin to go slow on further rate hikes. And if the Chinese economy manages to settle in better than expected in the new, open world, we just might see a faster economic turnaround despite the war in Europe. Asia seems to be better placed than others. Hop into a New Year with the Rabbit! (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

Into the Year of the Rabbit we travel

Planes, trains, and automobiles carry us and a lot of other things, but ships carry more than 80 per cent of the goods traded globally. So, stay close to the ports if you want to understand the shifts in global trade patterns.&nbsp;

And by the looks of it maritime trade, which bounced back significantly in the post-Covid months, is&nbsp;growing at a slower pace as the war in Ukraine and economic uncertainty begin to bite the world.&nbsp;

According to UNCTAD, the UN trade body, international maritime trade showed an estimated growth of 3.2 per cent&nbsp;and overall shipments of 11 billion tons in 2021, a rise of 7 percentage points compared to a decline of 3.8 per cent in 2020 when the world shut down due to fears over a global spread of the pandemic. Asia remained the world’s leading maritime cargo handling centre in 2021, accounting for a large chunk of exports and imports.&nbsp;

In a recent report, UNCTAD projected global maritime trade growth to fall to 1.4&nbsp;per cent this year and then grow at an annual average of 2.1&nbsp;per cent between 2023 and 2027 -- a sharply slower rate than the previous three-decade average of 3.3 per cent. According to its latest update, global trade should hit a record $32 trillion for 2022, but a slowdown that began in the second half of the year is only expected to worsen in 2023.&nbsp;

Why is global trade losing the spring in its steps? The World Trade Organization (WTO) blames it on multiple shocks that weigh on the global economy. Fears of Covid continue to linger in China, the Ukraine war is making things difficult for Europe and rising prices is forcing Americans to slow their purchases. So, while WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes to grow by 3.5&nbsp;per cent this year, they are cagey about 2023 predicting a much smaller increase.&nbsp;

To better understand 2023, we would want to return to 2021 when the world started re-opening and demand for consumer goods and e-commerce shot up across countries, much of it pent-up from months of closure. The abrupt rise in demand caused a supply-chain crisis, and that takes us back to the ships.&nbsp;

A surge in demand pushed container freight rates in 2021 five times higher than their pre-Covid levels and a longer turn-around time at congested ports – especially in the United States thanks to a paucity of port workers and truckers -- led to a sharp increase in consumer prices. Though container freight rates have fallen from their peak in early 2022, they remain high for energy cargo, according to UNCTAD.&nbsp;

And then came another economic disrupter. The Russian attack on Ukraine shook both the energy and the commodities markets hard. Mid-year, energy prices were up 78&nbsp;per cent year-on-year with natural gas up 250 per cent, according to WTO data. Crude oil prices were up by 36 per cent. Food prices galloped higher as wheat supplies from war-hit Ukraine stopped due to the closure of Black Sea ports. Dry bulk freight rates rose sharply even as the world was beginning to slowly recover from the pandemic’s earlier economic onslaught, as the war also affected the rail route between China and Europe.&nbsp;

In 2021, the railway was a saviour for shippers who had to look for alternatives to move cargo as ports became congested and airlines still weren’t flying at their pre-Covid capacity. According to UNCTAD data, the demand on the China-Europe railway rose 30 per cent to nearly 1.5 million twenty-foot containers. The war also impeded the use of the trans-Siberian route, which was used by China, South Korea and Japan to move goods into Europe.&nbsp;

It was a double whammy of the sorts never experienced before. The world was as unprepared for the trade stoppage as it was for its recovery. And if current underlying assumptions – a global economic slowdown, continuing higher inflation rates, currency shocks, and higher food, and energy prices among others – hold then 2023 could possibly turn out to be worse than anticipated.&nbsp;

For example, import demand is likely to be subdued in Europe as high energy prices due to the war in Ukraine and Russia’s decision to shut down gas supplies will impact household spend even as manufacturing costs rise. High inflation is eating into the American dream of buying homes and cars.&nbsp;

China, still very much the world’s factory, is struggling due to the earlier difficult Covid closures and now sudden uncertain re-opening, as production gets hit at a time when exports are slowing. Exports from China were lower in October 2022, the first decline in shipments since May 2020, thanks to poor overseas demand. The situation might not change very much very fast.&nbsp;

The IMF expects one-third of the global gross domestic product (GDP) to enter contraction. When the global economy slows, trade slows too. The US – the world’s biggest economy -- which expanded by 5.6 per cent in 2021, is expected to grow by less than 1 per cent next year. High inflation and rising interest rates are choking demand and growth.&nbsp;

China, the other big elephant in the room, is expected to grow a tad stronger next year, but these are still early days of post-Covid reopening and a lot will depend on whether China returns to lockdowns if things go out of hand. India – a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world -- is also expected to slow, as are Gulf economies, which benefited from high oil and gas prices following the pandemic.&nbsp;

With so much happening, the big question on everybody’s mind is whether trade will only slow or end up shrinking if current underlying assumptions give way to surprises, even shocks. All that is bad news for trade and the ships that sail the oceans. So, watch those ships closely!&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)&nbsp;

WATCH WION LIVE HERE&nbsp;

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You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us <a href="https://www.wionews.com/content-contribution-registration-form">here</a>.

Planes, trains, and automobiles carry us and a lot of other things, but ships carry more than 80 per cent of the goods traded globally. So, stay close to the ports if you want to understand the shifts in global trade patterns.

Planes, trains, and automobiles carry us and a lot of other things, but ships carry more than 80 per cent of the goods traded globally. So, stay close to the ports if you want to understand the shifts in global trade patterns. And by the looks of it maritime trade, which bounced back significantly in the post-Covid months, is growing at a slower pace as the war in Ukraine and economic uncertainty begin to bite the world. According to UNCTAD, the UN trade body, international maritime trade showed an estimated growth of 3.2 per cent and overall shipments of 11 billion tons in 2021, a rise of 7 percentage points compared to a decline of 3.8 per cent in 2020 when the world shut down due to fears over a global spread of the pandemic. Asia remained the world’s leading maritime cargo handling centre in 2021, accounting for a large chunk of exports and imports. In a recent report, UNCTAD projected global maritime trade growth to fall to 1.4 per cent this year and then grow at an annual average of 2.1 per cent between 2023 and 2027 -- a sharply slower rate than the previous three-decade average of 3.3 per cent. According to its latest update, global trade should hit a record $32 trillion for 2022, but a slowdown that began in the second half of the year is only expected to worsen in 2023. Why is global trade losing the spring in its steps? The World Trade Organization (WTO) blames it on multiple shocks that weigh on the global economy. Fears of Covid continue to linger in China, the Ukraine war is making things difficult for Europe and rising prices is forcing Americans to slow their purchases. So, while WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes to grow by 3.5 per cent this year, they are cagey about 2023 predicting a much smaller increase. To better understand 2023, we would want to return to 2021 when the world started re-opening and demand for consumer goods and e-commerce shot up across countries, much of it pent-up from months of closure. The abrupt rise in demand caused a supply-chain crisis, and that takes us back to the ships. A surge in demand pushed container freight rates in 2021 five times higher than their pre-Covid levels and a longer turn-around time at congested ports – especially in the United States thanks to a paucity of port workers and truckers -- led to a sharp increase in consumer prices. Though container freight rates have fallen from their peak in early 2022, they remain high for energy cargo, according to UNCTAD. And then came another economic disrupter. The Russian attack on Ukraine shook both the energy and the commodities markets hard. Mid-year, energy prices were up 78 per cent year-on-year with natural gas up 250 per cent, according to WTO data. Crude oil prices were up by 36 per cent. Food prices galloped higher as wheat supplies from war-hit Ukraine stopped due to the closure of Black Sea ports. Dry bulk freight rates rose sharply even as the world was beginning to slowly recover from the pandemic’s earlier economic onslaught, as the war also affected the rail route between China and Europe. In 2021, the railway was a saviour for shippers who had to look for alternatives to move cargo as ports became congested and airlines still weren’t flying at their pre-Covid capacity. According to UNCTAD data, the demand on the China-Europe railway rose 30 per cent to nearly 1.5 million twenty-foot containers. The war also impeded the use of the trans-Siberian route, which was used by China, South Korea and Japan to move goods into Europe. It was a double whammy of the sorts never experienced before. The world was as unprepared for the trade stoppage as it was for its recovery. And if current underlying assumptions – a global economic slowdown, continuing higher inflation rates, currency shocks, and higher food, and energy prices among others – hold then 2023 could possibly turn out to be worse than anticipated. For example, import demand is likely to be subdued in Europe as high energy prices due to the war in Ukraine and Russia’s decision to shut down gas supplies will impact household spend even as manufacturing costs rise. High inflation is eating into the American dream of buying homes and cars. China, still very much the world’s factory, is struggling due to the earlier difficult Covid closures and now sudden uncertain re-opening, as production gets hit at a time when exports are slowing. Exports from China were lower in October 2022, the first decline in shipments since May 2020, thanks to poor overseas demand. The situation might not change very much very fast. The IMF expects one-third of the global gross domestic product (GDP) to enter contraction. When the global economy slows, trade slows too. The US – the world’s biggest economy -- which expanded by 5.6 per cent in 2021, is expected to grow by less than 1 per cent next year. High inflation and rising interest rates are choking demand and growth. China, the other big elephant in the room, is expected to grow a tad stronger next year, but these are still early days of post-Covid reopening and a lot will depend on whether China returns to lockdowns if things go out of hand. India – a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world -- is also expected to slow, as are Gulf economies, which benefited from high oil and gas prices following the pandemic. With so much happening, the big question on everybody’s mind is whether trade will only slow or end up shrinking if current underlying assumptions give way to surprises, even shocks. All that is bad news for trade and the ships that sail the oceans. So, watch those ships closely! (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

Watch those ships as global trade growth seen slowing

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