While drones have revolutionised the battlefield, it is the rise and proliferation of rockets and missiles that has impacted the battlefield and geostrategic statecraft. Their widespread employment in conjunction with traditional artillery and aircraft is the new battlefield paradigm. The global inventory of rockets and missiles has expanded geometrically. Firepower has changed drastically as rockets and missiles have been employed as geopolitical tools of coercion, as conventional weapons in battle and as a tool of power by non-state actors. &nbsp;&nbsp;

<h2>The Geopolitical Tools of Coercion</h2>

North Korea pioneered provocative testing cum demonstrative firings of missiles and rockets as geopolitical tools of coercion since the late 70s. Initially, North Korean missiles had 50% failures. Current failure rates are only around 15%. As missile reliability improved, the North Korean threat has increased. In 2024, North Korea tested a cruise missile and IRBMs with hypersonic glide capability thrice. It keeps threatening the United States, South Korea and Japan through such firings. North Korea keeps firing a mix of unguided rockets, guided missiles and cruise missiles to keep the Eastern Pacific destabilised. It also conveys nuclear ambiguity through missile testing. It even fires conventional rockets mixed with tube artillery near inhabited areas to explicitly threaten and coerce South Korea. &nbsp;

China has a vast array of modern missiles and rockets. The PLARF is the largest ground-based missile force on earth. China regularly carries out large-scale rocket and missile firing demonstratively along with naval and air exercises to threaten and coerce Taiwan. The larger message is to demonstrate China’s resolve and capability to annex Taiwan, fight and win wars and project power globally. China uses the PLARF to convey its credibility and capabilities of nuclear deterrence and counterattack, strengthen intermediate and long-range precision strike forces, and enhance strategic counter-balance capability. It is a potent threat to China’s neighbours and adversaries. It also gives the PLA the ability to influence local, regional, and global military conflicts. In simple terms, it is geopolitical coercion on a global scale.&nbsp;

<h2>Rockets and Missiles in Conventional Battles</h2>

The &nbsp;Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict indicated how conventional wars will be fought using rockets, missiles, drones, and artillery. While its highlight was the extensive use of drones to complement conventional artillery, it also featured the heavy use of missiles and rocket artillery. This aspect has largely gone unnoticed. &nbsp;Both sides deployed and employed a range of rockets and missiles. These were a combination of legacy systems of the USSR era as also modern systems procured from different sources individually. Azerbaijan invested more into its rocket and missile arsenal to include guided rockets and MLRS systems to engage targets up to 200 km in depth. The balance tipped in Azerbaijan’s favour due to better drones and rocket artillery and a willingness to use them in an innovative and integrated manner. &nbsp;

The violence of firepower and its centrality in battle is reinforced in the Ukraine war. &nbsp;Employment of guns, rockets and missiles – guided, cruise and hypersonic has been unrestricted, imaginative and extensive. &nbsp;Major lessons have been drawn. Terrain, ground or weather might deter, inhibit or preclude the employment of Air, Infantry and Armour but nothing deters long-range Artillery. It overcomes terrain friction by striking deep. Despite static front lines, the daily situation changes due to orchestrated firepower strikes across the battlefield. Long-range vectors generate strategic as well as battlefield manoeuvre. They have been used to achieve political aims by deliberate firing on specified targets. Russia has postured with nuclear warheads and fired conventional warheads to achieve deterrence. It has done so through extensive use of air, hypersonic/cruise/guided missiles, rockets, and guns to deter NATO from getting directly involved. Ukraine uses rockets and cruise missiles imaginatively to deliver crucial blows to Russia. It has sunk a large part of the Russian Navy. &nbsp;Rockets and missiles have been used innovatively in executing ‘firepower ambushes’, &nbsp;undertaking ‘track and kill’ operations and carrying out ‘spoiling attacks’. A major factor which has emerged is that rockets and missiles used in conjunction with drones and a good command and control system dominate conventional battlefields.&nbsp;

<h2>The Non-State Tool of Power</h2>

The Houthi movement to grab power in Yemen is decades old. When the Saudis intervened, Iran stepped in. It provided the Houthis with a liberal supply of rockets and missiles. Once Saudi Arabia and Iran got involved, the Yemen civil war acquired local, regional and international flavours. “The Missile War in Yemen” &nbsp;marks the rise in the use of rockets and ballistic missiles by nonstate actors/proxies. Houthis have fired innumerable rockets and missiles locally at Yemen’s Government and Saudi bases, population centres, and infrastructure to trigger a humanitarian crisis. Regionally, Houthis have used a combination of cruise missiles, unguided rockets, ballistic missiles and armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack Saudi Arabia. The most spectacular being the 2019 ARAMCO attacks of Abqaiq and Khurais oil refineries. The Houthi SAMs have downed many &nbsp;Saudi coalition force aircraft. Their rocket and missile arsenal has secured a power-sharing agreement in Yemen. The Houthis are exercising ‘sea denial’ from land by firing drones and anti-ship cruise missiles against international shipping, oil tankers and U.S. Navy warships in the Red Sea. The Houthi arsenal of long-range missiles and drones has complicated the prospect of restoring peace and stability in West Asia or normalising international trade. &nbsp;

The Iran-backed Hezbollah is the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, described as ‘a militia trained like an army and equipped like a state’. Its rocket and missile arsenal is arrayed against Israel. Hezbollah’s missile inventory is mostly unguided surface-to-surface artillery rockets which lack precision or lethality. However, sheer numbers and volume make them potent weapons of terror. From the 2006 Lebanon war to now, they have expanded from 15,000 rockets and missiles to about 130,000-150,000. Hezbollah uses them as tools of terror and deterrence.&nbsp; 
Hezbollah’s ‘shoot and scoot’ tactics make detection, &nbsp;suppression and retaliation extremely difficult. It negates Israeli airpower. &nbsp;Hence, Hezbollah and Israeli troops are on equal footing in battle. It gives an advantage to Hezbollah which fights from behind a civilian façade like all non-state actors. Hezbollah and Houthi forces are collaborating to develop and employ rockets and missiles against Israel. Hezbollah is pushing to acquire longer-range precision-guided munitions. It has some rockets and missiles with a range of up to even 250 km. This is feasible due to the proliferation of missile technology by Iran.&nbsp;

Hamas was estimated to possess around 6000 rockets in a mix of short (15-20 km), medium ( 45 km) and long (100-200 km) range rockets. Hamas has adapted ideas from the Houthis and Hezbollah with Iranian assistance. Hamas specialises in making crude rockets using water pipes and filling them with any available explosive. Though erratic, they strike terror and make defiant political statements. Hamas uses civilian infrastructure and tunnels to camouflage and store these weapons. Hamas used to fire rockets into Israel from civilian areas of the Gaza Strip. It demonstrates their power to retaliate and even needle Israel to pursue their aims. These have also been used by Hamas to provoke Israel into indiscriminate retaliatory action and enmesh it in a humanitarian trap like they have done in the ongoing conflict.&nbsp;

Iran’s rockets and missile power were on display in its recent demonstrative strike on Israel. The strategic message in that strike is that sheer numbers and volumes can overwhelm air defences. Iran also proliferates rockets &amp; missiles to most of the non-state actors in West Asia. This enables Iran to project power and gain recognition of being an important player in the region. Iran is a case study in power projection far beyond borders without a strong navy or Air Force. Iran has offset this deficiency with its missile arsenal. Incidentally, this tactic is being used by China against the USA in the Western Pacific and against India in the Himalayas.&nbsp;

<h2>The Rise of Rockets and Missiles</h2>

Rockets and missiles are the choice tools of power, coercion and terror for the state as well as non-state actors. Their enhanced ranges outpace conventional artillery or aircraft. When combined with drones, they expand and threaten every corner of the battlefield. They have heralded a new vista of non-contact warfare with positive escalatory controls. They are also cheaper and far less complicated than air forces to acquire and maintain. They are flexible in employment and light on training and infrastructure requirement. The array of rockets and missiles is vast and can be produced through crude methods as also sophisticated processes as per capability and requirement. Rockets and missiles can be used as weapons of terror and mass destruction interchangeably. Their visual impact is high with enhanced propaganda value. They are capable of precision over longer ranges, unlike guns. Their survivability against air defences is far higher than aircraft. Very importantly they can be employed in conventional and nuclear roles. Technology gives better options in producing and employing rockets and missiles en masse. Modern missiles with higher speeds, range, navigation, advanced materials, and endurance can be developed at speed through dual-use space technologies. The evolution of hypersonic missiles is a new chapter on the horizon. The use of rockets and missiles combined with drones and satellite systems backed by AI-driven command and control systems is deadly and set to grow in modern warfare.

<h2>The Indian Scene</h2>

While there is some clamour for a Rocket Force in India, we need to see it in perspective. India has the technology and wherewithal to produce any kind of rocket or missile. It has a reasonable inventory and adequate capability to accelerate production. What it lacks is the vision to put it all together. A major part of the inability is a lack of Recce Strike Integration thinking. Integration of surveillance and long-range firepower through a dedicated command and control system is sorely lacking. More importantly, a national strategy is lacking. ISRO and DRDO don’t exactly see eye to eye. Each Service has its own philosophy at variance with the other. The Army myopia reduced the number of rocket regiments in its long-term plans! As the ranges of engagement have increased, &nbsp;the Indian Artillery, which incidentally is the most modern Arm of the Army, has been stripped of integral deep surveillance and targeting capability! Believe it or not! Over time, long-range and aerial observation capability birthed in Artillery has been bifurcated from it by our ‘Dritharashtric’ planners. While the rest of the world is integrating firepower, surveillance and observation through repurposed apps in battle, we have systematically disintegrated our structure! &nbsp;No. We do not need a rocket force. We need integrated thinking and jointness. We sorely lack that at almost every level. &nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) &nbsp;

While drones have revolutionised the battlefield, it is the rise and proliferation of rockets and missiles that has impacted the battlefield and geostrategic statecraft.

While drones have revolutionised the battlefield, it is the rise and proliferation of rockets and missiles that has impacted the battlefield and geostrategic statecraft. Their widespread employment in conjunction with traditional artillery and aircraft is the new battlefield paradigm. The global inventory of rockets and missiles has expanded geometrically. Firepower has changed drastically as rockets and missiles have been employed as geopolitical tools of coercion, as conventional weapons in battle and as a tool of power by non-state actors. The Geopolitical Tools of Coercion North Korea pioneered provocative testing cum demonstrative firings of missiles and rockets as geopolitical tools of coercion since the late 70s. Initially, North Korean missiles had 50% failures. Current failure rates are only around 15%. As missile reliability improved, the North Korean threat has increased. In 2024, North Korea tested a cruise missile and IRBMs with hypersonic glide capability thrice. It keeps threatening the United States, South Korea and Japan through such firings. North Korea keeps firing a mix of unguided rockets, guided missiles and cruise missiles to keep the Eastern Pacific destabilised. It also conveys nuclear ambiguity through missile testing. It even fires conventional rockets mixed with tube artillery near inhabited areas to explicitly threaten and coerce South Korea. China has a vast array of modern missiles and rockets. The PLARF is the largest ground-based missile force on earth. China regularly carries out large-scale rocket and missile firing demonstratively along with naval and air exercises to threaten and coerce Taiwan. The larger message is to demonstrate China’s resolve and capability to annex Taiwan, fight and win wars and project power globally. China uses the PLARF to convey its credibility and capabilities of nuclear deterrence and counterattack, strengthen intermediate and long-range precision strike forces, and enhance strategic counter-balance capability. It is a potent threat to China’s neighbours and adversaries. It also gives the PLA the ability to influence local, regional, and global military conflicts. In simple terms, it is geopolitical coercion on a global scale. Rockets and Missiles in Conventional Battles The Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict indicated how conventional wars will be fought using rockets, missiles, drones, and artillery. While its highlight was the extensive use of drones to complement conventional artillery, it also featured the heavy use of missiles and rocket artillery. This aspect has largely gone unnoticed. Both sides deployed and employed a range of rockets and missiles. These were a combination of legacy systems of the USSR era as also modern systems procured from different sources individually. Azerbaijan invested more into its rocket and missile arsenal to include guided rockets and MLRS systems to engage targets up to 200 km in depth. The balance tipped in Azerbaijan’s favour due to better drones and rocket artillery and a willingness to use them in an innovative and integrated manner. The violence of firepower and its centrality in battle is reinforced in the Ukraine war. Employment of guns, rockets and missiles – guided, cruise and hypersonic has been unrestricted, imaginative and extensive. Major lessons have been drawn. Terrain, ground or weather might deter, inhibit or preclude the employment of Air, Infantry and Armour but nothing deters long-range Artillery. It overcomes terrain friction by striking deep. Despite static front lines, the daily situation changes due to orchestrated firepower strikes across the battlefield. Long-range vectors generate strategic as well as battlefield manoeuvre. They have been used to achieve political aims by deliberate firing on specified targets. Russia has postured with nuclear warheads and fired conventional warheads to achieve deterrence. It has done so through extensive use of air, hypersonic/cruise/guided missiles, rockets, and guns to deter NATO from getting directly involved. Ukraine uses rockets and cruise missiles imaginatively to deliver crucial blows to Russia. It has sunk a large part of the Russian Navy. Rockets and missiles have been used innovatively in executing ‘firepower ambushes’, undertaking ‘track and kill’ operations and carrying out ‘spoiling attacks’. A major factor which has emerged is that rockets and missiles used in conjunction with drones and a good command and control system dominate conventional battlefields. The Non-State Tool of Power The Houthi movement to grab power in Yemen is decades old. When the Saudis intervened, Iran stepped in. It provided the Houthis with a liberal supply of rockets and missiles. Once Saudi Arabia and Iran got involved, the Yemen civil war acquired local, regional and international flavours. “The Missile War in Yemen” marks the rise in the use of rockets and ballistic missiles by nonstate actors/proxies. Houthis have fired innumerable rockets and missiles locally at Yemen’s Government and Saudi bases, population centres, and infrastructure to trigger a humanitarian crisis. Regionally, Houthis have used a combination of cruise missiles, unguided rockets, ballistic missiles and armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack Saudi Arabia. The most spectacular being the 2019 ARAMCO attacks of Abqaiq and Khurais oil refineries. The Houthi SAMs have downed many Saudi coalition force aircraft. Their rocket and missile arsenal has secured a power-sharing agreement in Yemen. The Houthis are exercising ‘sea denial’ from land by firing drones and anti-ship cruise missiles against international shipping, oil tankers and U.S. Navy warships in the Red Sea. The Houthi arsenal of long-range missiles and drones has complicated the prospect of restoring peace and stability in West Asia or normalising international trade. The Iran-backed Hezbollah is the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, described as ‘a militia trained like an army and equipped like a state’. Its rocket and missile arsenal is arrayed against Israel. Hezbollah’s missile inventory is mostly unguided surface-to-surface artillery rockets which lack precision or lethality. However, sheer numbers and volume make them potent weapons of terror. From the 2006 Lebanon war to now, they have expanded from 15,000 rockets and missiles to about 130,000-150,000. Hezbollah uses them as tools of terror and deterrence. Hezbollah’s ‘shoot and scoot’ tactics make detection, suppression and retaliation extremely difficult. It negates Israeli airpower. Hence, Hezbollah and Israeli troops are on equal footing in battle. It gives an advantage to Hezbollah which fights from behind a civilian façade like all non-state actors. Hezbollah and Houthi forces are collaborating to develop and employ rockets and missiles against Israel. Hezbollah is pushing to acquire longer-range precision-guided munitions. It has some rockets and missiles with a range of up to even 250 km. This is feasible due to the proliferation of missile technology by Iran. Hamas was estimated to possess around 6000 rockets in a mix of short (15-20 km), medium ( 45 km) and long (100-200 km) range rockets. Hamas has adapted ideas from the Houthis and Hezbollah with Iranian assistance. Hamas specialises in making crude rockets using water pipes and filling them with any available explosive. Though erratic, they strike terror and make defiant political statements. Hamas uses civilian infrastructure and tunnels to camouflage and store these weapons. Hamas used to fire rockets into Israel from civilian areas of the Gaza Strip. It demonstrates their power to retaliate and even needle Israel to pursue their aims. These have also been used by Hamas to provoke Israel into indiscriminate retaliatory action and enmesh it in a humanitarian trap like they have done in the ongoing conflict. Iran’s rockets and missile power were on display in its recent demonstrative strike on Israel. The strategic message in that strike is that sheer numbers and volumes can overwhelm air defences. Iran also proliferates rockets & missiles to most of the non-state actors in West Asia. This enables Iran to project power and gain recognition of being an important player in the region. Iran is a case study in power projection far beyond borders without a strong navy or Air Force. Iran has offset this deficiency with its missile arsenal. Incidentally, this tactic is being used by China against the USA in the Western Pacific and against India in the Himalayas. The Rise of Rockets and Missiles Rockets and missiles are the choice tools of power, coercion and terror for the state as well as non-state actors. Their enhanced ranges outpace conventional artillery or aircraft. When combined with drones, they expand and threaten every corner of the battlefield. They have heralded a new vista of non-contact warfare with positive escalatory controls. They are also cheaper and far less complicated than air forces to acquire and maintain. They are flexible in employment and light on training and infrastructure requirement. The array of rockets and missiles is vast and can be produced through crude methods as also sophisticated processes as per capability and requirement. Rockets and missiles can be used as weapons of terror and mass destruction interchangeably. Their visual impact is high with enhanced propaganda value. They are capable of precision over longer ranges, unlike guns. Their survivability against air defences is far higher than aircraft. Very importantly they can be employed in conventional and nuclear roles. Technology gives better options in producing and employing rockets and missiles en masse. Modern missiles with higher speeds, range, navigation, advanced materials, and endurance can be developed at speed through dual-use space technologies. The evolution of hypersonic missiles is a new chapter on the horizon. The use of rockets and missiles combined with drones and satellite systems backed by AI-driven command and control systems is deadly and set to grow in modern warfare. The Indian Scene While there is some clamour for a Rocket Force in India, we need to see it in perspective. India has the technology and wherewithal to produce any kind of rocket or missile. It has a reasonable inventory and adequate capability to accelerate production. What it lacks is the vision to put it all together. A major part of the inability is a lack of Recce Strike Integration thinking. Integration of surveillance and long-range firepower through a dedicated command and control system is sorely lacking. More importantly, a national strategy is lacking. ISRO and DRDO don’t exactly see eye to eye. Each Service has its own philosophy at variance with the other. The Army myopia reduced the number of rocket regiments in its long-term plans! As the ranges of engagement have increased, the Indian Artillery, which incidentally is the most modern Arm of the Army, has been stripped of integral deep surveillance and targeting capability! Believe it or not! Over time, long-range and aerial observation capability birthed in Artillery has been bifurcated from it by our ‘Dritharashtric’ planners. While the rest of the world is integrating firepower, surveillance and observation through repurposed apps in battle, we have systematically disintegrated our structure! No. We do not need a rocket force. We need integrated thinking and jointness. We sorely lack that at almost every level. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

Rise of rockets and missiles in conflicts

The strategic community is in awe of China. They marvel at its visionary leaders like Mao, Deng and Xi. They gush over books like the 100-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. They quote from it extensively. The very thought that Xi Jinping has laid down timelines for the PLA to become a fully modernised force by 2035 and China to be a well-off modern socialist society by 2049 sends tingles of envy down their spine. One can almost feel it. They quote how China is a superpower. They reel out the technologies it is mastering including space, quantum, cyber and AI. They talk of its nuclear expansion. They explain how the Yuan is replacing the Dollar. They point out the rate at which China is deploying exotic weapons - stealth aircraft, powerful naval vessels and other military capabilities with its ever-expanding military budgets. They look at those who talk of China’s decline as halfwits. &nbsp;

In all the gushing about China, it will do good to remember that a nation is made of people. Not robots, AI or cyber! It is people - good, bad or ugly who make any nation into what it is. Unfortunately for China, the people are declining irreversibly. If the people are in an irreversible decline, the nation declines. Is it not? Sabe? China’s decline actually started with Deng’s ‘one child policy’. When implemented, it seemed really farsighted. Today it looks sort of idiotically myopic. As per a Chinese writer, China faces many “grey rhino” risks. However, population decline is China’s biggest and its time is running out.&nbsp;

When did the demographic grey rhino appear? A decade back. However, the eternally lying communist machinery explained away the demographic decline. As per them, it was known, anticipated and under control. After all the two-child policy was already under implementation with the usual communist gusto! Their propaganda was that the problem would only appear in the next decade. By then China and Xi Jinping would be chugging smoothly on their way to superpower status. Except that the farsighted liars were hiding the reality from the world, their people and themselves. The Chinese farsighted myopia sold the grey rhino as a silver unicorn! &nbsp;Many believed it!&nbsp;

A couple of years back when I started writing about China’s decline, the Chinese bandwagon looked at me in resigned amusement! Here was Xi Jinping talking of Global Security, Development and Civilisational Initiatives and leading China on its way to a Sino-Centric Global Order. Here I was talking of population decline - a trifling issue which might occur. By then China would be rich, prosperous and powerful. It would have the capability to divert the runaway express train bearing down on it. In 2023 the Chinese were jolted when the population dropped by 2.08 million and births by 9.02 million. The lowest level in 74 years. It was like erasing the populations of Salem and Ambala from the map. Panic! But the lying Jinping and his believers are still selling rat poison of China’s great power status, new technologies, civilisation and all that junk. &nbsp;

Why is China declining at such a fast rate? &nbsp;Simple. Its people are ageing at the fastest rate in human history! People matter after all. China might or might not be rich as per Xi Jinping’s plan. It will get old and that is for sure. In 2023, China had around 21.1% of people above 60. By the time PLA modernises fully by 2035 this will be about 30-35%. By 2049, this figure will be above 40 %! This data is derived from official UN figures. However, the official UN figures are based on falsified Chinese figures! The situation must be actually worse. So that’s our fully modern China - a superpower of the aged!&nbsp;

<img alt="China" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="684cfcc7-8d84-4f5f-b222-2997c7178c6b" src="//cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/China_9.png" />

While Xi Jinping and his gang are talking of modernised China leading mankind to a common destiny through new productive forces, the common Chinese on the streets are seeing kindergartens being closed and hoping that they will be repurposed into old age homes! A simple matter of adjusting the declining child population to an increasing ageing people. This is just one issue. More profound and intractable social issues are just coming to light. The Chinese society we will see going ahead will be far different from the one in which the ‘one child policy’ was implemented or the one of today’s generation which grew up in boom times. &nbsp;

In the past one year, there has been a growing awareness that China has sleepwalked into a situation where the clock has stopped ticking. People write that the worst curse for any nation’s future would be if prosperous people have become “the last generation”. They talk of parents, raised during China’s gravy time who had high hopes for their children’s success. They see them already crumbling with ‘Tang Ping’ and ‘Bailan’ when their children might not land a decent job after graduation. Imagine the psyche of an ageing people when their two main investment avenues – property and stock are in a blind alley of an unfinished building in a ghost city.&nbsp;

Deng’s&nbsp;“one-child policy” provided free condoms and other contraceptive products to limit births and population. However, it also enabled ‘sex for pleasure and broke the traditional institution of marriage’. Marriages and births – both declined. Remember, China does not encourage childbearing outside marriage. Further, when the cost of child-rearing went up with prosperity, births declined. Overall the Chinese Communist Party has let loose a jinn out of the lamp. That jinn has already led China to a birth rate far below replacement levels. In fact, the Chinese society stands reshaped in a manner which will make Deng turn in his grave. Imagine the psychology of a country where there are no brothers or sisters or uncles or aunts. That is what is China today. What will it be tomorrow? Anyone’s guess.&nbsp;

An erudite demographics professor at a reputed Chinese university opines that a “dearth of childbirths would be a horrendous social and economic crisis since childbirth is the largest industry chain driving the economy”. Another good professor points out that even if all Chinese have three children, “China’s population would still continue dropping until the end of the century, due to a shrinking number of women of childbearing age as well as a rapidly ageing population”. Xi Jinping has a lot of work to do. At the age of 71, he might be better off if he attempts to produce his third child in the time he has left on this good earth rather than building the largest navy on god’s acre and making trouble for all his neighbours.

Turn to another aspect - pension. In March 2024, China has indicated that it will introduce a private pension fund. Something like NPS which has been around in India since 2014! When a headline screams ‘China’s private pension push marred by weak financial literacy, as people still have no idea’, one needs to wonder at Chinese foresight! People are hesitant to participate since the scheme is not attractive in economically difficult times. This is about the general pension scheme. The old age pension scheme is running out of funds anyway by 2035 and no solutions are in sight. Can you imagine the mental state of Chinese – old and young?&nbsp;

People argue that Chinese productivity can be kept up with automation and robots despite its population decline. I scratch my brain and wonder how can robots consume. &nbsp;After all the biggest economic problem is their consumption gap. Don’t agree with me? Ask Michael Pettis, the renowned expert on the Chinese economy. Another Chinese writer states ‘Beijing’s ambitions of building a powerful socialist country by the middle of this century will be out of reach if the population keeps shrinking and ageing at the current rate’. Yet another opines that ‘China’s frequent and abrupt policy changes during the pandemic undermined the government’s credibility. Beijing should start by trying to restore its credibility. The credibility problem between the government and its people is only growing.&nbsp;

One might say that such things are normal in a society under change. The difference is that a few years back Chinese demographic issues were discussed only by academics and researchers in journals that no one read. The issue is now being debated in every news portal in China regularly. New facets one could not dream of are coming up. To put it in perspective, the problem will bloom big time past 2030 in geometric proportion. The Chinese know it and they do not have answers. They are worried and probably scared stiff.

The China one sees has three layers today. One sees China economically stagnating since the hole in the property, infrastructure and debt-ridden finance sector cannot be replaced by EVs, solar panels or energy appliances. With investment staying away, the economy will become even more problematic as the steel sector is about to fall off a cliff. The second layer is an ageing Xi Jinping and a power-hungry communist party which has eschewed all paths to peace and growth through their greed and flawed policy. This dangerous layer is surging ahead militarily and technologically to seek a pinnacle in global affairs. It is doing so without a full stop - sinking buckets full of Yuan drawn from the hard-earned savings of the citizenry. The returns can only be assured through mercantile chicanery or war since all its policies have failed spectacularly. The third layer is a shrinking and ageing population who know this but have no other alternative. Some are putting their life savings in gold and many in shaky banks, worried about their future which seems bleak compared to their past. They have no choices left. All they can do is bring to the fore new aspects of the psychological stress they are coming under on an almost daily basis. No wonder that the demand for psychological counselling has increased in China as anxieties have mounted. It is a complex pressure cooker situation.&nbsp;

This in effect is the psychology of a nation in decline. All this is not my original thinking. If the Chinese accuse me of plagiarism, it will prove my case. The decline has started and the down hill slope will only be steeper as time goes on. One has to just wait for the Sino-Centric World Order to disappear into the horizon. It is a matter of time.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)&nbsp;

The strategic community is in awe of China. They marvel at its visionary leaders like Mao, Deng and Xi. They gush over books like the 100-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.

The strategic community is in awe of China. They marvel at its visionary leaders like Mao, Deng and Xi. They gush over books like the 100-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. They quote from it extensively. The very thought that Xi Jinping has laid down timelines for the PLA to become a fully modernised force by 2035 and China to be a well-off modern socialist society by 2049 sends tingles of envy down their spine. One can almost feel it. They quote how China is a superpower. They reel out the technologies it is mastering including space, quantum, cyber and AI. They talk of its nuclear expansion. They explain how the Yuan is replacing the Dollar. They point out the rate at which China is deploying exotic weapons - stealth aircraft, powerful naval vessels and other military capabilities with its ever-expanding military budgets. They look at those who talk of China’s decline as halfwits. In all the gushing about China, it will do good to remember that a nation is made of people. Not robots, AI or cyber! It is people - good, bad or ugly who make any nation into what it is. Unfortunately for China, the people are declining irreversibly. If the people are in an irreversible decline, the nation declines. Is it not? Sabe? China’s decline actually started with Deng’s ‘one child policy’. When implemented, it seemed really farsighted. Today it looks sort of idiotically myopic. As per a Chinese writer, China faces many “grey rhino” risks. However, population decline is China’s biggest and its time is running out. When did the demographic grey rhino appear? A decade back. However, the eternally lying communist machinery explained away the demographic decline. As per them, it was known, anticipated and under control. After all the two-child policy was already under implementation with the usual communist gusto! Their propaganda was that the problem would only appear in the next decade. By then China and Xi Jinping would be chugging smoothly on their way to superpower status. Except that the farsighted liars were hiding the reality from the world, their people and themselves. The Chinese farsighted myopia sold the grey rhino as a silver unicorn! Many believed it! A couple of years back when I started writing about China’s decline, the Chinese bandwagon looked at me in resigned amusement! Here was Xi Jinping talking of Global Security, Development and Civilisational Initiatives and leading China on its way to a Sino-Centric Global Order. Here I was talking of population decline - a trifling issue which might occur. By then China would be rich, prosperous and powerful. It would have the capability to divert the runaway express train bearing down on it. In 2023 the Chinese were jolted when the population dropped by 2.08 million and births by 9.02 million. The lowest level in 74 years. It was like erasing the populations of Salem and Ambala from the map. Panic! But the lying Jinping and his believers are still selling rat poison of China’s great power status, new technologies, civilisation and all that junk. Why is China declining at such a fast rate? Simple. Its people are ageing at the fastest rate in human history! People matter after all. China might or might not be rich as per Xi Jinping’s plan. It will get old and that is for sure. In 2023, China had around 21.1% of people above 60. By the time PLA modernises fully by 2035 this will be about 30-35%. By 2049, this figure will be above 40 %! This data is derived from official UN figures. However, the official UN figures are based on falsified Chinese figures! The situation must be actually worse. So that’s our fully modern China - a superpower of the aged! While Xi Jinping and his gang are talking of modernised China leading mankind to a common destiny through new productive forces, the common Chinese on the streets are seeing kindergartens being closed and hoping that they will be repurposed into old age homes! A simple matter of adjusting the declining child population to an increasing ageing people. This is just one issue. More profound and intractable social issues are just coming to light. The Chinese society we will see going ahead will be far different from the one in which the ‘one child policy’ was implemented or the one of today’s generation which grew up in boom times. In the past one year, there has been a growing awareness that China has sleepwalked into a situation where the clock has stopped ticking. People write that the worst curse for any nation’s future would be if prosperous people have become “the last generation”. They talk of parents, raised during China’s gravy time who had high hopes for their children’s success. They see them already crumbling with ‘Tang Ping’ and ‘Bailan’ when their children might not land a decent job after graduation. Imagine the psyche of an ageing people when their two main investment avenues – property and stock are in a blind alley of an unfinished building in a ghost city. Deng’s “one-child policy” provided free condoms and other contraceptive products to limit births and population. However, it also enabled ‘sex for pleasure and broke the traditional institution of marriage’. Marriages and births – both declined. Remember, China does not encourage childbearing outside marriage. Further, when the cost of child-rearing went up with prosperity, births declined. Overall the Chinese Communist Party has let loose a jinn out of the lamp. That jinn has already led China to a birth rate far below replacement levels. In fact, the Chinese society stands reshaped in a manner which will make Deng turn in his grave. Imagine the psychology of a country where there are no brothers or sisters or uncles or aunts. That is what is China today. What will it be tomorrow? Anyone’s guess. An erudite demographics professor at a reputed Chinese university opines that a “dearth of childbirths would be a horrendous social and economic crisis since childbirth is the largest industry chain driving the economy”. Another good professor points out that even if all Chinese have three children, “China’s population would still continue dropping until the end of the century, due to a shrinking number of women of childbearing age as well as a rapidly ageing population”. Xi Jinping has a lot of work to do. At the age of 71, he might be better off if he attempts to produce his third child in the time he has left on this good earth rather than building the largest navy on god’s acre and making trouble for all his neighbours. Turn to another aspect - pension. In March 2024, China has indicated that it will introduce a private pension fund. Something like NPS which has been around in India since 2014! When a headline screams ‘China’s private pension push marred by weak financial literacy, as people still have no idea’, one needs to wonder at Chinese foresight! People are hesitant to participate since the scheme is not attractive in economically difficult times. This is about the general pension scheme. The old age pension scheme is running out of funds anyway by 2035 and no solutions are in sight. Can you imagine the mental state of Chinese – old and young? People argue that Chinese productivity can be kept up with automation and robots despite its population decline. I scratch my brain and wonder how can robots consume. After all the biggest economic problem is their consumption gap. Don’t agree with me? Ask Michael Pettis, the renowned expert on the Chinese economy. Another Chinese writer states ‘Beijing’s ambitions of building a powerful socialist country by the middle of this century will be out of reach if the population keeps shrinking and ageing at the current rate’. Yet another opines that ‘China’s frequent and abrupt policy changes during the pandemic undermined the government’s credibility. Beijing should start by trying to restore its credibility. The credibility problem between the government and its people is only growing. One might say that such things are normal in a society under change. The difference is that a few years back Chinese demographic issues were discussed only by academics and researchers in journals that no one read. The issue is now being debated in every news portal in China regularly. New facets one could not dream of are coming up. To put it in perspective, the problem will bloom big time past 2030 in geometric proportion. The Chinese know it and they do not have answers. They are worried and probably scared stiff. The China one sees has three layers today. One sees China economically stagnating since the hole in the property, infrastructure and debt-ridden finance sector cannot be replaced by EVs, solar panels or energy appliances. With investment staying away, the economy will become even more problematic as the steel sector is about to fall off a cliff. The second layer is an ageing Xi Jinping and a power-hungry communist party which has eschewed all paths to peace and growth through their greed and flawed policy. This dangerous layer is surging ahead militarily and technologically to seek a pinnacle in global affairs. It is doing so without a full stop - sinking buckets full of Yuan drawn from the hard-earned savings of the citizenry. The returns can only be assured through mercantile chicanery or war since all its policies have failed spectacularly. The third layer is a shrinking and ageing population who know this but have no other alternative. Some are putting their life savings in gold and many in shaky banks, worried about their future which seems bleak compared to their past. They have no choices left. All they can do is bring to the fore new aspects of the psychological stress they are coming under on an almost daily basis. No wonder that the demand for psychological counselling has increased in China as anxieties have mounted. It is a complex pressure cooker situation. This in effect is the psychology of a nation in decline. All this is not my original thinking. If the Chinese accuse me of plagiarism, it will prove my case. The decline has started and the down hill slope will only be steeper as time goes on. One has to just wait for the Sino-Centric World Order to disappear into the horizon. It is a matter of time. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

The psychology of Chinese decline

Author

Zee News Rajasthan

Editor

Lt Gen Pr Shankar Retd

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