In December 2019, the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China. The Chinese media has stated that the virus originated from bats, pinning the source of origin to the food market in Wuhan which sold a number of wild animals including bats. But all this is in the realm of speculation. It would not be out of order to consider other possibilities of the source of the outbreak of the virus, especially one having military connotations.

Could the virus have originated from one of the virology laboratories located in Wuhan? Could this have been a planned trial by the Chinese of a biological weapon which could carry out mass destruction? Or was this an accidental leak? This too is a matter of conjecture, but as the potential consequences of the spread of the Wuhan virus are so cataclysmic, each and every possibility needs thorough examination and cannot be brushed under the carpet.

Let us examine the hypothesis that this was a planned Chinese biological warfare weapon, which they let loose on the world, first exposing their own residents to the virus, but restricting its impact so that neither Beijing nor Shanghai was impacted. The capacity of the virus to kill is limited, and the data from China shows that over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. But the fact that the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced to a population, makes it lethal. As an example, if one million people are infected in an area, while 80 per cent will recover quickly, most not even knowing that they are sick, at least 200,000 will require hospitalisation, which is a very large number putting a huge strain on the civic infrastructure and causing governments to impose a lockdown to prevent further spread. The fatalities will be even lesser, perhaps in the range of 20,000 or so, but the impact on the nation’s economy will be crippling. Today, besides India, the US, Europe, Japan, ASEAN, the Gulf countries and others have been seriously impacted, with their economies taking a severe hit.

The Chinese economy, while the hit to some extent, appears to have recovered and is projected to grow at 2.5 per cent. While this is the lowest rate of growth for China in decades, it is far better than the projected rate of growth in Europe and India, which is close to zero per cent. So, if this was a planned biological attack by the Chinese, then they have succeeded in full measure as the Western economies stand crippled and may well go into recession. This puts China in the pole position.

Major stock exchanges across the world have taken a drubbing with the coronavirus pandemic shaving off nearly a third of the global market cap. But interestingly, the Chinese stock exchange has emerged almost unscathed amid the global market rout. With supply chains and global demand being disrupted, a great deal of uncertainty has been created over the long term. China appears to be in a good position to weather the storm and emerge as the market leader, post the pandemic. With stocks tumbling, China is being stocked at reduced rates and in India, has already picked up a one per cent stake in HDFC.

In mid-January, President Donald Trump signed an initial trade deal with China, bringing to a close, the first chapter of a protracted and economically damaging trade war, which was hurting China’s economy. Based on the terms of the agreement, China agreed to buy $12.5 billion in the US agricultural products in 2020 and a further $19.5 billion in 2021. However, with the pandemic raging across the world, the trade deal is as good as dead, which will be a source of dissatisfaction to the US.

Beijing has ratcheted up the pressure on Taiwan, which it seeks to reunite with the mainland. In February, while carrying out military drills, Chinese jets crossed an unofficial middle line in the Taiwan Strait. A day earlier, Chinese fighters and bombers flew around the island. Then in early April, a Chinese naval flotilla led by the country’s first aircraft carrier passed by the eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills. These acts are coercive and designed to put pressure on Taiwan at a time when the world is battling the coronavirus. China is also ramping up pressure on its claim areas in the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence is a deliberate show of force, cocking a snook at the world.

Coincidentally, at this time, the US naval fleet has been hit by the coronavirus. Of the 11 aircraft carriers in the US Navy's fleet, the crew in three of the aircraft carriers are reported to have been infected. More than half the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt have been disembarked at Guam, which shows how a virus can impact military capability. So, at a time when the Chinese are getting belligerent in the Indo-Pacific, the US naval fleet finds a part of its crew disabled due to the coronavirus. The USS Ronald Reagan, presently docked in Yokosuka, Japan, is for the moment the only available aircraft carrier to project power in the western Pacific, to counter potential hostilities from China.

India needs to be concerned as China claims a large chunk&nbsp;of Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh and is in illegal occupation of the Aksai Chin. If China is moving in the direction of using biological weapons, then India needs to be prepared accordingly. This is no longer in the realm of science fiction as portrayed in the film Contagion. Biological weapons can destroy a nation's economy and seriously degrade its military potential. It is a reality thrust upon us, which we can ignore only at our peril.

&nbsp;(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

In December 2019, the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China. The Chinese media has stated that the virus originated from bats, pinning the source of origin to the food market in Wuhan which sold a number of wild animals including bats.

In December 2019, the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China. The Chinese media has stated that the virus originated from bats, pinning the source of origin to the food market in Wuhan which sold a number of wild animals including bats. But all this is in the realm of speculation. It would not be out of order to consider other possibilities of the source of the outbreak of the virus, especially one having military connotations. Could the virus have originated from one of the virology laboratories located in Wuhan? Could this have been a planned trial by the Chinese of a biological weapon which could carry out mass destruction? Or was this an accidental leak? This too is a matter of conjecture, but as the potential consequences of the spread of the Wuhan virus are so cataclysmic, each and every possibility needs thorough examination and cannot be brushed under the carpet. Let us examine the hypothesis that this was a planned Chinese biological warfare weapon, which they let loose on the world, first exposing their own residents to the virus, but restricting its impact so that neither Beijing nor Shanghai was impacted. The capacity of the virus to kill is limited, and the data from China shows that over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. But the fact that the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced to a population, makes it lethal. As an example, if one million people are infected in an area, while 80 per cent will recover quickly, most not even knowing that they are sick, at least 200,000 will require hospitalisation, which is a very large number putting a huge strain on the civic infrastructure and causing governments to impose a lockdown to prevent further spread. The fatalities will be even lesser, perhaps in the range of 20,000 or so, but the impact on the nation’s economy will be crippling. Today, besides India, the US, Europe, Japan, ASEAN, the Gulf countries and others have been seriously impacted, with their economies taking a severe hit. The Chinese economy, while the hit to some extent, appears to have recovered and is projected to grow at 2.5 per cent. While this is the lowest rate of growth for China in decades, it is far better than the projected rate of growth in Europe and India, which is close to zero per cent. So, if this was a planned biological attack by the Chinese, then they have succeeded in full measure as the Western economies stand crippled and may well go into recession. This puts China in the pole position. Major stock exchanges across the world have taken a drubbing with the coronavirus pandemic shaving off nearly a third of the global market cap. But interestingly, the Chinese stock exchange has emerged almost unscathed amid the global market rout. With supply chains and global demand being disrupted, a great deal of uncertainty has been created over the long term. China appears to be in a good position to weather the storm and emerge as the market leader, post the pandemic. With stocks tumbling, China is being stocked at reduced rates and in India, has already picked up a one per cent stake in HDFC. In mid-January, President Donald Trump signed an initial trade deal with China, bringing to a close, the first chapter of a protracted and economically damaging trade war, which was hurting China’s economy. Based on the terms of the agreement, China agreed to buy $12.5 billion in the US agricultural products in 2020 and a further $19.5 billion in 2021. However, with the pandemic raging across the world, the trade deal is as good as dead, which will be a source of dissatisfaction to the US. Beijing has ratcheted up the pressure on Taiwan, which it seeks to reunite with the mainland. In February, while carrying out military drills, Chinese jets crossed an unofficial middle line in the Taiwan Strait. A day earlier, Chinese fighters and bombers flew around the island. Then in early April, a Chinese naval flotilla led by the country’s first aircraft carrier passed by the eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills. These acts are coercive and designed to put pressure on Taiwan at a time when the world is battling the coronavirus. China is also ramping up pressure on its claim areas in the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence is a deliberate show of force, cocking a snook at the world. Coincidentally, at this time, the US naval fleet has been hit by the coronavirus. Of the 11 aircraft carriers in the US Navy's fleet, the crew in three of the aircraft carriers are reported to have been infected. More than half the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt have been disembarked at Guam, which shows how a virus can impact military capability. So, at a time when the Chinese are getting belligerent in the Indo-Pacific, the US naval fleet finds a part of its crew disabled due to the coronavirus. The USS Ronald Reagan, presently docked in Yokosuka, Japan, is for the moment the only available aircraft carrier to project power in the western Pacific, to counter potential hostilities from China. India needs to be concerned as China claims a large chunk of Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh and is in illegal occupation of the Aksai Chin. If China is moving in the direction of using biological weapons, then India needs to be prepared accordingly. This is no longer in the realm of science fiction as portrayed in the film Contagion. Biological weapons can destroy a nation's economy and seriously degrade its military potential. It is a reality thrust upon us, which we can ignore only at our peril. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

How coronavirus impacts the military capability

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Zee News Rajasthan

Editor

Dhruv C Katoch

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