Will US, Russia fight it out or resolve issues? 

Politics is all about possibilities. Nothing is forever, neither friendships, nor rivalries. More than 70 years back, the United States dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan. It was carnage. At least 200,000 Japanese were wiped out. Despite that, the US and Japan are not sworn enemies. Instead, they have cultivated excellent ties. Today, Tokyo is America's most trusted Asian ally.

What's the point we're trying to make? Political relationships are always changing and this change is not natural. It is the product of hard work, compromises, understandings behind the scenes and a lot of haggling.

The question is, are Russia and US ready for this diplomatic dance? For decades, Moscow was Washington's public enemy number one. Every Hollywood movie had a Russian villain. Every US President saw Russia as the final frontier, but the rivalry has diluted in recent years.

There are two reasons for this. One that the US has pulled ahead of Russia as the two countries are not equal anymore, and number two is the rise of China. The new Washington consensus is clear. Beijing is the bigger threat to the United States. So, where does this leave Russia? Is it an old foe? Is it a bystander to the emerging cold war? Is it a power that can be co-opted against a bigger adversary?

These questions are important as Joe Biden wants to meet Vladimir Putin. He wants to settle differences with Russia. It's easier said than done.

That's because we are talking about an endless list of differences and disputes. Russia supports every single American rival. It trades with Iran, it buys oil from Venezuela, it backs the Assad regime in Syria, and don't forget, Russian hackers tried to meddle in America's presidential elections. First in 2016 and then again last year.

A sit-down between Biden and Putin will not solve these issues because at the centre of it is a trust deficit. And Biden's reputation doesn't help. He's a known Russia hawk. He is from the cold war generation. A generation that was taught to live in fear of a Soviet missile. Which is why he talks about a tough competition with China but doesn't flinch before calling Putin "a killer".

So, is there no scope for cooperation?

Russia and the US recently renewed a missile treaty. They do see eye-to-eye on nuclear weapons. What brings them on the same page? The idea of mutual survival, more than anything else. Nonetheless, it counts as cooperation. So going forward, Moscow and Washington have a lot to discuss.

Climate change is a key issue, so is the Arctic. Russia has major energy goals in the Arctic but how will the world carve up this region? It's the next frontier. US-Russia talks will be vital to peace in the Arctic. What about China? Where does China fit in?

Moscow and Beijing are in a state of undeclared alliance. They support the same regimes. They are both sanctioned by the Americans, and their leaders have a great personal equation. They gift each other ice cream and flip pancakes together. Xi Jinping once called Putin his best friend. The Chinese President could probably count all his friends in a single hand but beyond the praises, is there substance to this relationship?

Trade between the two has grown but political and military integration is missing. In the West, there is NATO andFive Eyes alliance, but there is noSino-Russian equivalent. At least, not yet. So, Putin's aggression in eastern Ukraine is largely a solo mission. NATO is closing ranks against him. US warships are heading to the Black Sea. If this is an attempt at war, it is not a good one.

To the south of eastern Ukraine is Turkey, a NATO ally, albiet a difficult one. To the south-west, Bulgaria and Romania, again Nato allies. Move further west, and you reach Nato heartland, France, Germany and the UK. So, the doomsday predictions may be a bit far-fetched. Russia isn't even trying to hide its deployments and that's not a good strategy but is this a prelude to war? Or is this just Putin trying to test Joe Biden's resolve?

How far is Joe Biden willing to go to protect Ukraine? Will he bring Ukraine into the NATO? As vice president, Biden witnessed the annexation of Crimea. Today, the Russian buildup is almost at the same level. Moscow may not pull the trigger this time, but Biden is not taking that chance. At 78, he has the appetite for one cold war, not two.

For a change, Washington is choosing its battles.