US midterms 2026: Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Can Nov 3 elections change that?

Texas is heading into the November 3 midterm elections with three major statewide contests that could prove to be a telling measure of whether Hispanic voters who moved towards Republicans in 2024 are now ready to shift back to Democrats. The Senate, governor and attorney general races provide three different tests of that question, even as Republicans retain a structural advantage in the state.

The shift is visible in polling. A survey of Hispanic likely voters conducted for The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision between August 26 and September 3 found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 63 to 30 per cent in the Senate race. In the governor’s contest, Democrat Gina Hinojosa led incumbent Greg Abbott 60 to 33 per cent.

Those numbers are a sharp contrast with 2024, when Donald Trump won Texas Hispanic voters by 10 percentage points, according to the same polling analysis. But support among one demographic group does not automatically translate into statewide victories. The three races will test whether Democrats can broaden their coalition and turn that support into votes across Texas.

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Senate: Talarico faces Paxton as Republicans confront divisions

Talarico, a Democratic state representative, is challenging Paxton, the state attorney general who won the Republican nomination after defeating Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff. The contest has become one of the closely watched Senate races of the cycle. Recent polling has shown a tight statewide contest, despite Talarico’s advantage among Hispanic voters.

The campaign has also exposed divisions within the Republican establishment. Neil Bush, the son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of George W. Bush, said he had voted early for Talarico, citing concerns about Paxton’s record and praise for the Democrat’s character. Barbara Bush, George W. Bush’s daughter, donated $2,500 to a political action committee supporting Talarico, according to campaign finance records reported by Houston Public Media.

Governor: Hinojosa tests Abbott’s support among Hispanic voters

Republican Governor Abbott is seeking another term against Democratic state Representative Hinojosa. The Cook Political Report-TelevisaUnivision survey found Hinojosa ahead among Hispanic likely voters by 27 points, despite Abbott winning 40 per cent of the Hispanic vote in his 2022 re-election campaign.

The statewide picture is much closer. The University of Texas Texas Politics Project’s poll tracker showed Abbott and Hinojosa trading narrow leads across surveys, with several October polls putting Abbott ahead and others giving Hinojosa a small advantage. The contest will test whether Democrats can turn gains among Hispanic voters into a broader statewide coalition.

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Attorney general: Does the shift extend down the ballot?

The third contest pits Republican state Senator Mayes Middleton against Democratic state Senator Nathan Johnson for the attorney general’s office, which Paxton is leaving to run for the Senate. A September survey by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center put Middleton at 47 per cent and Johnson at 42 per cent. Other polls have shown a closer race, including a University of Texas survey that gave Johnson a narrow lead.

Texas elections: One state, three tests

Notably, Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988, and Republicans have held the governor’s office since 1995. The three races therefore carry significance beyond the individual candidates: they will show whether Democrats can make gains among Hispanic voters while also persuading enough voters from other groups to compete statewide.