US midterms 2026: Andy Barr favoured to succeed Mitch McConnell in Kentucky

Kentuckians choose a successor to Senator Mitch McConnell in the upcoming US midterm election. Republican Rep. Andy Barr is the clear favourite to replace the longest-serving party leader in Senate history.

Barr leads Democratic nominee Charles Booker 49% to 40% among likely voters in a poll released by Booker's own campaign. Independent analysts still rate the race among the least competitive Senate contests in the country. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Kentucky since 1992, when Wendell Ford was reelected. President Trump carried the state by 31 points in 2024.

McConnell, 84, is finishing his seventh term with a 42-year run in the chamber. He announced in 2025 that he would retire after the 2026 midterms, and his term ends in January. He was first elected in 1984.

His final months have been shadowed by his health. He was out of public view from mid-June, when he was taken to a hospital for reasons that went undisclosed for weeks. He later said he fell and was briefly unconscious. Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, demanded that he prove he could serve or resign.

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McConnell returned to the Senate on September 14, looking noticeably more frail. He spoke to reporters from a wheelchair and ignored a question about whether he would serve out his term. He said he was not quite back to 100% and promised to be present for tough votes.

Andy Barr has been the US Representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district since 2013. The race to replace McConnell was a test of Republican direction. Businessman Nate Morris ran with a $10 million super PAC, funded by Musk money, and Vance's backing. Barr, by contrast, came up through McConnell's circle but has noted a distinct populist alignment with Donald Trump rather than branding himself strictly as a traditional “McConnell Republican”. In the three-way Republican primary in May 2026, Trump dramatically intervened by offering an ambassadorship to Barr’s top rival, Nate Morris. Trump then endorsed him, calling him a "warrior" in Congress, and propelled him to an easy primary victory over former Attorney General Daniel Cameron.