US Midterm 2026: What do opinion polls and prediction markets say less than two weeks before voting

The US midterm elections are now just two weeks away, and the Democrats seem well positioned to reclaim the House of Representatives. The battle for control of the Senate, however, remains uncertain. A majority of opinion polls and prediction markets broadly agree on the House outlook, but the Senate contest looks like giving the Republicans a potential path to retaining power.

Americans will vote on November 3 to elect all 435 members of the House and roughly one-third of the Senate. The voting will decide the tilt in the balance of power in Washington during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s ongoing term.

Polls point to a Democratic advantage

Opinion polls hint towards a growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, which may translate to favourable conditions for Democrats. An October 19 analysis of congressional ballot polling put the Democratic lead at 9.2 percentage points, with Democrats at 49.9% and Republicans at 40.7%. An earlier polling showed Democrats ahead by 7.6 points.

The findings reflect voter concerns about the economy, the cost of living and the administration’s handling of foreign policy.

However, a national opinion poll is not a clear forecast of seats won. There are several factors like competitive constituencies, profile of local candidates and turnout patterns that will determine the real outcome.

Prediction markets favour Democrats

Traders on Kalshi gave Democrats approximately a 90% probability of winning the House and a 63% probability of capturing the Senate. Polymarket showed broadly comparable odds.

The odds in a prediction market can change as new polls, campaign developments and economic news emerge.

Why there is still no surety of Democratic wave

Though opinion polls and prediction markets favour Democrats, a decisive victory for them is far from certain. Besides, polls could again underestimate Republican support.

Republicans are trying hard to portray Democrats as too far to the left, including through messaging that associates the party with socialism. This argument could influence undecided voters in closely fought contests in the wake of all that is going on in Europe.

Final fortnight could prove crucial

The polling and prediction market indications signal that Democrats have an edge, particularly in the House. But neither offers a guarantee of the final result.

For Trump, losing the House would mean facing greater congressional scrutiny, investigations and budget confrontations. Losing both chambers would hinder his legislative agenda and complicate judicial and other nominations.

With the voting day approaching fast, turnout, late shifts in voter preferences and the performance of individual candidates could still reshape the contest.