Sudan war: UNHCR chief warns mass exodus estimates of one million people may be 'conservative'

The head of the United Nations refugee agency has warned that the earlier estimate of around one million peoplefleeing the nation due to the Sudan War by October is potentially an underestimation. As per Commissioner of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)Filippo Grandi, the escalating conflict could lead to increased human trafficking and arms proliferation throughout the fragile region.

What did the UN refugee agency chief say?

UNHCR initially predicted that around 800,000 Sudanese and 200,000 individuals of other nationalities would leave Sudan in six months, but the agency's head, Filippo Grandi, now believes these figures may be an underestimation.

Speaking during an interview in Cairo, Grandi said: "This projection, that in the next few months we'll reach these high figures, may even be conservative."

"At the beginning, I didn't believe it would be, but now I'm beginning to be worried."

He expressed concern about the collapse of law and order in Sudan and said that with "a lot of people desperate to move on" the situation is ripe for creating conditions for human trafficking. He also said that the circulation of arms across borders could exacerbate the violence.

"We've seen it in Libya with the Sahel. We don't want a repeat of that because that will be a multiplier of crisis and of humanitarian problems," he said.

Displacement to date

Reuters reports that since the outbreak of war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on April 15, over 350,000 individuals have already fled Sudan, seeking refuge in neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan.

Since the conflict began, nearly 160,000 people have crossed from Sudan into Egypt, which already had a significant Sudanese community residing within its borders.

Furthermore, within Sudan itself, more than one million people have been displaced due to heavy fighting in the capital Khartoum and violence in Darfur.

International aid needed for Sudan

The UN has appealed for $470 million to address the refugee crisis in Sudan over a six-month period, but according to Grandi, only oneper cent of the requested amount has been funded.

Emphasising the need for a donor-pledging conference, Grandi expressed concern that the international community's focus on other global issues, such as Ukraine, was diverting attention from the Sudanese crisis.

"You can clearly sense a disparity which is very dangerous. This crisis has the potential to destabilise an entire region and beyond as much as Ukraine does in Europe."

To address the urgent needs of those affected, UNHCR, as per Grandi, is trying to establish a presence in the northern Sudanese town of Wadi Halfa, where many Sudanese men aged 16 to 50 are waiting for visas to enter Egypt. Additionally, he said aid must be delivered to the buffer zone between Egyptian and Sudanese border posts, where displaced individuals have encountered lengthy delays.

(With inputs from agencies)

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