Pakistan’s MIRV dreams crash again: Ababeel missile test ends in fiery failure

Pakistan have reportedly once again failed with the test of MIRV-capable Ababeel Missile. According to a report by Indian Defence News and Indian Defence Research Wing, the projectile crashed near Dera Bugti in Balochistan. However, no official verification has been provided from Pakistan. According to the report, Pakistan test-launched a version of the Ababeel medium‑range ballistic missile, designed to be MIRV-capable. The test, however, failed with a malfunction during flight, most likely in the propulsion system or structural integrity. The debris of the missile crash was reportedly seen at the Dera Bugti area in Balochistan.

The event is not new as Pakistan has previously publicly tested Ababeel missile in January 2017, claiming MIRV capability. However, analysts later concluded that the MIRV capability could not be independently verified. It was assumed that the missile likely shared components with other solid-fuel systems and did not conclusively demonstrate multiple re-entry vehicles. Subsequent tests such as those of October 2023, which were officially called successful, but according to open-source investigations (OSINT) and eyewitness accounts, ended in failure.

What is MIRV? Why is it difficult for a nuclear-powered nation to get it right?

Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle or MIRV is a ballistic missile with multiple nuclear warheads that can be aimed and deployed at multiple targets. A simpler analogy would be a nuclear shotgun in space. Each MIRV has to carry multiple nukes, which means the country needs to design and test small-yield, compact nuclear warheads, a major technological challenge. So countries need to miniaturise and shrink them, which is a hard engineering feat. Each warhead must re-enter the atmosphere and navigate to a separate target. That kind of targeting accuracy is hard to achieve at high speed. Post-Boost Vehicle (PBV) carries the warheads and releases them toward different trajectories, enabling manoeuvre in space and course correction. It is just like rocket science on steroids.

Strategic Implication

The test was closely monitored by US intelligence, including use of RC‑135S Cobra Ball aircraft, from the Arabian Sea region, underscoring global concern. But subsequent reports of failure highlight persistent technical issues in Pakistan's military deployment. Pakistan views Ababeel, with a perceived range of up to 2,200 km, as essential to counter India's S-400 missile defence. Even though no confirmed statement has come from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations yet. The failure to deploy the MIRV missile systems reflects a common pattern of official statements that contrasts with observed results on the ground.