Trump unreliable; India needs robust economy to counter China

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Trump had a meeting on November 13, 2017, on the sidelines of the ASEAN and East Asia Summit held in Manila. This was days after India attended a meeting with Japanese, Australians and the US (this grouping has been dubbed as the Quad). Off late, the US has also spoken about a greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific, first Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did so, and during his visit to Asia, the US President Trump has referred to the Asia-Pacific as the Indo-Pacific much to the chagrin of the Chinese.

The Indian prime minister’s emphasis on the need for New Delhi-Washington ties moving beyond the bilateral context was a clear reference to a greater role for India in the Indo-Pacific and greater cooperation between New Delhi and Washington DC.

The US President while highlighting India’s democratic credentials and diversity, laid special emphasis on the stellar economic progress made by India.

Indian Prime Minister said, "The cooperation between India and US can rise beyond bilateral cooperation and both countries can work for the future of Asia and the world. We are moving ahead together on many issues," Modi told Trump in his opening remarks’ Modi also expressed gratitude to Trump for expressing optimism with regard to the India growth story and stated that India would live up to US expectations.

Trump had lavished praise on India while addressing a gathering of CEO's on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Vietnam. The US President while highlighting India’s democratic credentials and diversity, laid special emphasis on the stellar economic progress made by India. Said Trump: “Since India opened its economy, it has achieved astounding growth and a new world of opportunities for its expanding middle class’.

While there is a clear synergy, a few questions need to be kept in mind. The US President is transactional and unpredictable. While New Delhi should be happy with the current administration’s repeated calls for granting a larger role to India in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi should not forget that Trump himself has given mixed signals with regard to the US role in the Indo-Pacific. Initially, the US President had backed a more isolationist role for the US, confusing its allies like Japan and South Korea. Only on the issue of North Korea, Trump has taken an unequivocally harsh stance.

Secondly, while Trump may at times make belligerent statements against China. Beijing has read him very well and understood that business deals work as a sweetener for the US President. This was clearly evident from Trump’s recent China visit where the Chinese apart from laying out a red carpet, also signed business deals to the tune of 250 billion USD (the sceptics believe that many of these are MOU's).

While the Trump administration has made the right noises on Pakistan, New Delhi should not expect Washington to dump Islamabad or Rawalpindi.

Post the meeting betweenTrump and Xi, the US President’s tone totally changed. While Washington having good ties with Beijing is not bad news for India, Trump's flip-flops certainly send a clear message that New Delhi should not solely depend upon Trump for its Indo-Pacific strategy, and neither should it's China policy be an extension of Washington's. Given their economic clout, the Chinese are in a good position to outmanoeuvre Trump.

Third, while the Trump administration has made the right noises on Pakistan, New Delhi should not expect Washington to dump Islamabad or Rawalpindi. Old hands in the state department will not let go so easily, and even on Afghanistan, Washington’s policy will not echo India’s though the synergies may increase. PM Modi’s mention of India’s recent decision to send a consignment of wheat to Afghanistan via Chabahar (Iran) sent an important message that just as Washington has its own priorities, so does New Delhi.

What are India’s options

While the scepticism with regard to being part of a US-led alliance is over the top, the Quad in itself is not an answer to India’s strategic challenges – especially with the rise of China. India’s most reliable partner is Japan and Australia, which oflate has witnessed significant strains in the relationship, and should be given high top priority.

Second, New Delhi should continue to explore synergies with China, but New Delhi should draw some red lines. China’s approach of turning a blind eye towards the activities of Pakistani terror groups targeting India, especially its recent decision to block the UN ban on Azhar Masood should not go unnoticed. New Delhi should look at reducing economic dependence upon Chinese goods, and look at other alternatives. This can not happen overnight but should be an incremental process.

While New Delhi needs to get out of embedded biasesand suspicion of the US, it also needs to realise, that it will have to fight its own battles.

Third, India has understood the importance of personalised diplomacy with Trump, and the importance he gives to business in bilateral relationships. This is useful, though not enough given the US President's flip-flops. Apart from this, a lot also depends upon the US President's domestic political capital. A vulnerable Trump could be even more isolationist and this does not help India's cause in any way.

In conclusion, while New Delhi needs to get out of embedded biasesand suspicion of the US, it also needs to realise, that it will have to fight its own battles. China’s increasing leverage clearly shows that robust economic growth enhances diplomatic clout. Western democracies which pontificate about Human Rights and Democracy, have had to meekly surrender vis-à-vis Beijing on more than one occasion.