Opinion: Aero India to provide boost to BJP in 2019

The controversy over the supposed shifting of Aero India from Bengaluru to Lucknow once again underscores the importance of Uttar Pradesh in Indian politics. These ‘leaks’ that the government is considering Lucknow as the venue for Aero India 2019 also signify that in the wake of successive defeats in bypolls including in Chief Minister Adityanath’s own seat, Gorakhpur, the BJP has realised it needs everything to counter the challenge posed by Mahagathbandhan of SP, BSP, RLD, and Congress.

The move is also being seen as politically motivated because just a day before this news broke, UP Chief Minister Adityanath had publicly asked the Defence Minister to shift the show to Lucknow’s Bakshi ka Talab airbase.

Besides providing yet another platform for a publicity-blitz, if Aero India is shifted out, it is likely to be portrayed as a counter to what the BJP calls the wild and baseless allegations of corruption in the Rafale deal comprising the purchase of 36 off-the-shelf Dassault Rafale twin-engine fighter aircrafts for 7.8 billion Euros. The Congress has been consistently targeting both Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the deal for lack of procedural compliance, and selection of a company which has no experience in aviation (Anil Ambani-led Reliance Defence Limited) to be Dassault’s Indian partner. The Congress also alleges that the cost of each aircraft under the new deal signed in January 2016 is three times higher than the 2012 deal.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi had raised the issue of alleged corruption in his speech during the no-confidence motion in the just concluded Monsoon session of the Parliament. He has repeatedly called it the government’s betrayal of ‘Make in India’ programme that sought to promote manufacturing in India.

According to media reports quoting Indian Air Force sources, the IAF has raised several objections to Lucknow as venue for Aero India. These include lack of depth in the airfield, a nightmarishly narrow approach road, and, absence of required infrastructure at the IAF airbase, and at the Lucknow airport. However, despite all these if the Modi government decides to shift the venue to Lucknow, it will be a move akin to the ‘omnirole’ abilities of the Rafale aircraft which had debuted at the AeroIndia 2017 in Bengaluru. The shift to Lucknow will likely help the BJP hit at least three political targets.

By bringing Aero India to UP, the Modi government is hoping to convince the electorate of the state that this will lead to a boost in the defence-manufacturing sector and thereby generate jobs locally. The spectacle afforded by whooshing aircrafts performing daredevil stunts is just the kind of publicity that the BJP will need to disguise its anti-incumbency in. Already facing flak on his government’s performance on several fronts like law and order, and the farm sector, it will provide chief minister Adityanath a major public relation boost.

However, the shift to Lucknow, if it actually happens, will be a setback for Bengaluru and Karnataka, which are both manufacturing hubs for the defence and aviation sector.

Both JD(S) and the Congress, ruling partners in the southern state, have opposed the alleged plan vociferously with Congress even calling it yet another instance betrayal of Karnataka by the BJP government. KPCC Chief, Dinesh Gundu Rao added this latest controversy to a list of what he called ill-treatment of the state. Referring to the Rafale deal he said, “As if it wasn’t enough that they ill-treated HAL in the Rafale deal, they now want to take away the air show from here too”.

The first Aero India show was held in Benguluru’s Yelahanka airbase in 1996. Since then Bengaluru has been host to what has become Asia's biggest air show. In its 11th edition in 2017, more than 500 companies from 51 countries participated.

However, going by media reports, none of this is likely to matter given the huge PR-potential of holding the Aero India in a new venue like Lucknow. Given a string of defeats in assembly and Lok Sabha by polls, the BJP seems to have made up its mind: it will needall -sops, slogans and spectacle to retain even half of the 71 seats it won in UP in 2014.

It will be the one ‘achievement’ that the BJP would be able to showcase to the people ahead of 2019 elections. It’s another matter though that many aviation companies might not be pleased with the last minute change in the venue to Lucknow, which is il-equipped to host an Aero show at the moment.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)