Nobel leak? Norway probes espionage after bets on Maria Corina Machado soar

Following Maria Corina Machado’s recent Nobel Peace Prize win, controversy has erupted over suspicious betting activity prior to the announcement. Norwegian authorities have launched an investigation into an unusual surge in bets placed on a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform just hours before the official declaration. The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

On October 10, shortly before it was publicly revealed that the Venezuelan opposition leader had won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, Polymarket—a US-based crypto prediction market—saw a sharp increase in wagers favouring Machado. This sudden spike in activity has raised red flags, prompting scrutiny from both the Nobel Institute and Norwegian authorities. One trader, operating under the username dirtycup, reportedly placed a $70,000 bet on Machado shortly before the announcement. This user had only just created their Polymarket account earlier in the month and had no previous betting history. According to Polymarket, the trader earned around $30,000 in profit from the wager. Additionally, three other Polymarket accounts—primarily betting on Machado—were found to have collectively profited around $90,000, according to reporting by local business outlet Finansavisen, cited by Bloomberg.

In a statement issued days after the announcement, Nobel Institute director Kristian Berg Harpviken confirmed that an investigation is ongoing, with multiple leads currently being pursued. "The institute has been the target of systematic espionage for a long time. It's likely that someone managed to access confidential information and profited significantly from it," he said.

Machado supported Netanyahu's Gaza war?

The Nobel Committee praised Machado, 58, as "one of the most extraordinary examples of civilian courage in Latin America in recent times". Nobel chairman Jørgen Watne Frydnes called her a ‘key, unifying figure’ who campaigned against Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro. The Nobel Committee said that it has recognised her struggle to achieve a “just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.” However, following the announcement, many pointed out Maria Corina Machado's controversial views and her support to the Israel-Gaza war.