Can Ethiopia survive a civil war?

Ethiopia is hurtling towards a civil war. The northern province of Tigray is in open rebellion. On Wednesday -- the local ruling party attacked federal troops stationed here. Prime minister Abiy Ahmed described it as an act of betrayal...

"The army has been attacked from behind by its own citizens and many have been martyred, wounded and properties destroyed. This force of destruction has been engaged in many counterproductive activities for the past many months," he said.

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Cracks in the union first emerged in September. Tigray held parliamentary elections - without permission from the centre. The vote was declared illegal. It was the first indication of what was in store.

At the heart of this brewing civil war is a battle for influence. Tigray accounts for just 5% of Ethiopia's population. But thanks to a well-trained army.And a strong economy. It has always enjoyed disproportionate power in government.

That changed when Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. Major Tigrayan officials were either fired or sidelined. It was part of his crackdown on corruption. In response, the Tigray government declared prime minister Abiy as illegitimate.

"The authoritarian unitary government that has illegally usurped power of the federal government is committing treason and injustice by forging alliance with external forces and setting out the country's sovereignty in a bid to subdue people of Tigray," said spokesperson of the Tigray government

The situation is precarious right now. A state of emergency has been declared in Tigray. Federal troops have moved in. Electricity, internet and telephone connections have been cut. Prime minister Abiy has made it clear that he will fight till the end.

The war itself is likely to be devastating. Tigray claims that federal troops in the region have defected. Combined with the region's own forces. They could be a handful for the Ethiopian army.

There is also the risk of the rebellion spreading elsewhere. Ethiopia is home to 80 ethnic groups. Unresolved tensions could resurface - if a civil war breaks out.

Prime minister Abiy is a champion of dialogue. He ended a two-decade conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. And pacified rebel groups.

All without deploying troops. But the attack on Ethiopian soldiers was the red line for him. The question is -- can Africa's oldest union survive his war?